tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66750105580521631072024-03-13T09:28:30.392-07:00Pedigree Matchingpedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.comBlogger155125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-48234573768519083372020-11-02T09:53:00.002-08:002020-11-02T09:57:57.817-08:00Share zoom_0.mp4 - 185 MB<a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/q6e62vpujonwy3e/zoom_0.mp4/file">Share zoom_0.mp4 - 185 MB</a><div><br /></div><div>Our Zoom Room discussion on the pedigrees of the 2020 Breeders Crown winners</div>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-90428199082488209262020-06-26T14:55:00.004-07:002020-06-26T14:55:58.860-07:00Sweet Lou and the TB PatternFollowing the success of Warrawee Ubeaut, whose pedigree shows the TB pattern, along comes another Sweet Lou filly with a similar pedigree. Her name is Nectar and so far how sweet she is.<br />
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She is owned by Saulsbrook Stable in Nova Scotia and trained down by Alan McNeil, who also broke and raced Lis Mara. Like Lis Mara in Lexington, Nectar was on my short list of recommendations in Harrisburg that I give to Alan each year. His father Bill is a close friend and occasional partner as well as a Pedigree Matching breeder for over fifteen years with considerable success including Atlantic Champion Saulsbrook Alana, a daughter of a filly also bought at Harrisburg who was injured and kept for breeding. A sister to Alana, Saulsbrook Raven, will race in the first Gold leg of the Ontario Sires next week. In the past 15 years Saulsbrook Farm has produced more $100K winners than any other breeder in the Maritimes.<br />
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With a performance rating of 127 - 1.47.4 Nectar was one of my top rated fillies in Harrisburg two years ago selling in the middle of the sale for a bargain $20,000. No doubt her broodmare sire Lislea scared most buyers off but not Alan after his experience with Lis Mara from the same farm. She is TB to the Abercrombie/Adios line being by an Abercrombie line sire and from a dam that is inbred to Abercrombie/Adios just like Warrawee Ubeaut.<br />
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<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/bs7tbaj057028fm/Nectar_Pedigree.pdf/file">Nectar</a>, like many of Alan's filly purchases, was unraced at two, then was qualified twice at three, winning both times, and now has debuted at Rideau Carleton in a 1:55f romp. She has a long way to go to catch up with Warrawee Ubeaut but her future looks bright so far and if she, for some other reason, does not succeed on the track her pedigree will serve her well as a broodmare.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-33213726512210826372020-04-20T14:26:00.000-07:002020-04-20T14:31:20.086-07:00Sire Line AffinityI have written in the past about certain "nicks" in pedigrees as they apply to the profiles of sires. Most are explainable as reflecting the position of common individuals across the pedigree such as Albatross, No Nukes, Speedy Crown , Super Bowl etc. There are other patterns that are not readily explainable but are nevertheless noteworthy such as the presence of Big Towner in the dams of the best by Rock N Roll Heaven and Pet Rock, both sires similarly bred but with no Big Towner themselves.<br />
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But what about broodmare sires ? Do they exhibit similar affinities for certain lines in the sires to which they are bred other than the sire lines they share in common maternally. It would appear they do have such affinity, at least in the case of Bettors Delight..<br />
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Bettors Delight mares have been in the broodmare ranks since 2006 and by now are at their prime in producing top performers but as a group they are somewhat of a disappointment with a 17.4% average in producing top performers making over $100K. Compare this to his foals as racehorses with a success rate of over 34%. For most sires breeding success of the mares closely parallels racing success but for some reason this is not the case for mares by Bettors Delight.<br />
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Looking at the pedigrees of the mares responsible for his top 100 broodmare credits shows a remarkable pattern that centers on the presence of Volomite and Big Towner lines in the sire line or in the maternal lines of the sires that work best. Eighty nine of the top 100 including all of the top 30 show this pattern and 56 of the top 60.<br />
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The Volomite line shows up 58 times primarily through Direct Scooter and his descendants Matts Scooter, Mach Three, Somebeachsomewhere and his sons.<br />
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American Ideal has a Matts Scooter dam and has 13 of the top 100. Next comes the Direct Scooter line sire Somebeachsomewhere with 12, Rocknroll Hanover with 7, Well Said has 6, Rock N Roll Heaven with 6, Shadow Play 4, Mach Three 3, and 7 others with one each.<br />
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Big Towner shows up in 31 mares with Art Major leading the way with 12, Sportswriter with 4, Always A Virgin at 3, Big Bad John, Big Jim and Dragon Again have 2 each, and six other sires with one apiece.<br />
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The 11 exceptions are all by different sires with maternal lines that link to the bottom half of the pedigrees of the mares rather than to the Cam Fella - Abercrombie lines of Bettors Delight.<br />
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This seeming affinity for sires that carry Direct Scooter and/or Big Towner certainly reduces the sire options for mares by Bettors Delight and that alone could account for so many of these mares not performing as well in the broodmares ranks as they did on the track.<br />
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<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-45669275157433487262020-03-07T11:54:00.000-08:002020-03-07T11:54:37.618-08:00If At First You Don't Succeed.<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; font-size: 16pt;">If At First You Don't Succeed - The breeding of
Obrigado<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Hoofbeats this month is featuring the racing career of
Obrigado, a ten year old trotter who is staging a comeback after retiring in
2018 due to an injury. After a year of inaction he returned to race last
September and has since bounced back with two wins at The Meadowlands including
his latest, a front end win from the 10th post position. His perseverance is a
testament to his own will and determination but also to that of his breeder
Michael Andrew of Gorham, Maine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">I first met Mike Andrew at the 2004 Harrisburg yearling sale.
I had a booth in the vendors area selling my Pedigree Matching program CD's and
on the first day, while the sale was underway, Mike sat down at my table and
asked me to look up a horse he had just bought. I put it up on the screen then
said Uh-Oh and Mike, looking a bit startled, said "What do you mean Uh-Oh, I just paid $210,000 for this
colt". It was a trotter by Self Possessed and from a mare by Super Bowl.
His name was Servage Hanover. I explained that it was not a cross that liked
because at that point Self Possessed had shown no success with Super Bowl line
mares and his profile showed, if anything, a preference for Noble Victory line
dams. The colt had ten attempts to qualify in his three years in training and
just one unsuccessful start. My first impressions on the cross actually
turned out to be premature since Cash Hall and Prime Interest both made over
$600,000 subsequently. The two best by Self Possessed, however, were from Noble
Victory line dams.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Mike returned later with his friend Dr Doug Hutchins, a
veterinarian and small breeder from Maine. We discussed the breeding situation
in Maine and also looked at some of the stallions standing there. Among them was
Boy Band, a stallion owned by Mike that he
had bought in Lexington in 2001 for $145,000 that had failed to race
with no earnings in three starts. In 2004 he had bred Boy Band to two of his
own mares, Malimony and A Virtue, plus four mares owned by the farm where he
was standing, and a couple of other outside mares owned by friends. Boy Band
was not exactly popular as you could imagine given his racing career but he was
from a very good family being from Classic Cassette by Florida Pro. She had 16
foals including a couple that made over $500K including Giant Hit, and a couple
of other stallions in A P Lindy and Rockaroundtheclock. Boy Band was her 12th
foal. We looked at his own two mares and on paper, at least, they showed
promise since both had the necessary maternal connections to the dam of Boy
Band, particularly through Arnie
Almahurst, sire of Florida Pro.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Early in 2005 I got a call from Mike, then president of the
Maine Breeders Association, to see if I could come down to their annual general
meeting in Portland in March and give a presentation on pedigrees. There were
several presentations on different topics and they were done in parallel with
morning and afternoon sessions. There was a lot of interest in the topic of
stallion selection and I used my knowledge of Boy Band to illustrate the
concept of maternal connections as being a big factor in the success of a
stallion or indeed predicting success for a new stallion such as Boy Band.
Another topic that came up was the practice of breeders choosing a different
sire each year rather than staying with one that was deemed to have a good "match". I explained that,
based on my own observations and what I had learned from knowledgeable
breeders, that the vagaries of genetics
do not guarantee success every time you breed the same way but that there is a
one in four chance that you will get at least one very good one, plus two
decent performers and one dud.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Dr Doug Hutchins is trying his own version of staying the course. He made his first appearance at Pedigree Camp on PEI in 2009 and we discussed the breeding of his mare Cocktail Hour and decided that he should try to get Muscle Hill. He did not get in the first time but the following year was accepted and she produced a colt called Martiniwithmuscle who was injured at three after making over $140K and ended up in Sweden. Cocktail Hour missed in 2012 but hit the big leagues in 2013 with Bar Hopping, a winner of $1,385,293, and now a stallion at Hanover Shoe Farms. He has continued with Muscle Hill getting two fillies that he has kept for his broodmare band and now has a fifth one by Muscle Hill, a colt called Cricket Hill, that will likely be in the 2020 Harrisburg sale. Will that colt be the start of another 1 in 4 run ? Don't bet against it.</span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Now it takes a lot of faith and perseverance to stick to such
a plan but for Dr Doug and Mike Andrew it certainly worked out. A Virtue's 2005 foal turned
out to be the one very good one in four such breedings with $326K made. She was bred to Boy
Band eight times in total, and had two other foals that earned over $150K. Malimony was a bit slower to get her big
winner. She too had eight foals by Boy Band and that 2005 foal, the first of six
fillies, was decent for a Maine bred earning $81K, and the fourth foal, also a
filly, earned over $230K and had a virtually unbeaten 2 and 3 year old stakes
campaign that was a preview of what was to come. The fifth breeding produced a
colt and that was a dud and the sixth was Obrigado now with earnings
approaching $1.9 million and a winner of 22 consecutive Maine stakes races at
two and three. If at first you don't succeed !!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">A look at the overall profile of success for Boy Band, who is
still breeding with three foals in 2018 including another from A Virtue, shows
that the presence of the Arnie Almahurst line in the dams was indeed an
important factor in his success with 15 of his top 17 including the top four
all exhibiting that maternal connection. But what was in the pedigree of
Obrigado that made him so much better than the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">His maternal family is #18 on the list for all time sub-2:00
performers and is relatively short lived compared to many of the top families
The family matriarch is Molly J, born around 1885, by a grandson of
Hambletonian and from a dam listed simply as By Boston Horse. She has one
daughter, Mary Bales, by Montjoy, a full brother to Waller, the sire of Molly
J. Montjoy's dam has a daughter of
Pilot Jr called Kate maternally so it is the first connection to the X-factor
mare Miss Russell, also a daughter of Pilot Jr.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Mary Bales has two daughters, a pacer by Zombro called
Zombrewer and a trotter by Nutwood Wilkes called Wilkes Brewer, but it was her
first born Zombrewer that was to make the history books with a filly called
Elizabeth by Peter The Great. Her pedigree combined the maternal influence of
two daughters of Pilot Jr in Kathleen and the aforementioned Kate and when bred
to Guy Abbey produced the fastest trotter in the world at the time, the
legendary Greyhound. He was born in 1932 and was the outstanding </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harness_racing" title="Harness racing"><span style="background: white; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">trotting</span></a><span style="background: white;"> horse of
his day and arguably the most outstanding in the history of the sport. He was
nicknamed "The Great Grey Ghost" and "Silver-skinned
Flyer." In </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_in_sports" title="1935 in sports"><span style="background: white; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">1935</span></a><span style="background: white;">, he won the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hambletonian_Stakes" title="Hambletonian Stakes"><span style="background: white; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">Hambletonian</span></a><span style="background: white;"> in world
record time for two heats combined and in </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_in_sports" title="1938 in sports"><span style="background: white; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">1938</span></a><span style="background: white;"> he lowered the world record time for
trotting the mile to 1:55¼, a record that stood until </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_in_sports" title="1969 in sports"><span style="background: white; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">for</span></a> over
thirty years.<span style="background: white;">. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Elizabeth had 16 foals and it was her daughter,Yankee Maid
by Volomite, that leads us to yet another world champion in this pedigree. With
successive breedings to sires like Porterhouse, Noble Victory and Speedy Crown
the line arrives at that important connection with Arnie Almahurst bred to
Quiet Elegance by Speedy Crown. She had an amazing 20 foals with six being born
in the United States before being exported to Sweden. Three of the American
breds were by Ardnon, a son of Arnie Almahurst, who has the great X-factor mare
Margaret Parrish maternally. These include Kindavahush who, when bred to Lindy
Lane, produced Hellava Hush, the first ever 1.51 trotter and a world champion.
A full sister produced Better By Design, a $342K winner also by Lindy
Lane. The third full sister is the
second dam of Obrigado, Meadow Hush, producing Malimony by Malabar Man whose
pedigree now has an X-factor double to
Speedy Crown to add to its maternal inheritance.</div>
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Considering the success of the recent maternal line with
Lindy Lane perhaps we should not be surprised by the success of Malimony with
Boy Band, himself a son of Lindy Lane. A proven pedigree match with a maternal
line featuring world champions is a roadmap to success that anyone can follow.</div>
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When researching the pedigrees of horses it is often
surprising to find a personal connection to the pedigree. Apart from my
acquaintance with Mike Andrew there are several other such coincidences. Boy
Band's trainer was Ivan Davies, who was born in Kington, Worcestershire just
across the border with Wales where my maternal grandfather was born some twenty
miles away. I don't have any Davies in my maternal line though as far as I know
but I do have a closer connection to Obrigado's driver in Maine. Heath
Campbell's family came from Charlottetown, PEI and his uncle John
"Buddy" Campbell was a trainer/driver/horse shoer of note for many
years at the Charlottetown Driving Park. When my son, Charles, was a teenager
learning how to train and shoe horses it was Buddy Campbell that took him under
his wing. Charles is now an equine practitioner in Ontario.</div>
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There is yet another connection, this time to the family of
Obrigado. In 2002 my horse partner Bill MacNeil of Saulsbrook Farms and I
bought a mare in Harrisburg in foal to Dream Vacation and she produced a colt
we named Critic Vacation. We were back at the sale the following year looking
for a weanling to raise and train with Critic and settled on a smallish Angus
Hall colt called Fight To Win. I was attracted to the colt because of his
pedigree that was a double/double of Speedy Crown, Stars Pride and Arnie
Almahurst lines. The dam was R Sweet Hush, a three quarter sister to the dam
of world champion Hellava Hush and, as
it turns out, to the second dam of Obrigado. Both Critic Vacation and Fight To
Win had decent racing careers earning $111K and $121K respectively. Critic's
big race was finishing a lapped on second to the PEI 3 year old stakes record
holder Maple Leaf Noble in a then track record 2:01.1h. Fight To Win, not
eligible to any stakes had to face Open Trot company at three in Charlottetown
finishing second in 2.01.2h. They were sold later in their three year old years
to Ontario but turned a nice little profit for Bill and I.</div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Waiting for your 1 in 4 chance to show up gives you a
possibility of a 25% success rate - a lot better than the 4-5% success that is
experienced by breeders in general as they rotate their mares through the
available sires hoping to get lucky.</span>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-73439405047172409342020-03-03T14:33:00.000-08:002020-03-05T07:48:28.429-08:00The Long Road To Success - Face Time Bourbon<h1>
<span lang="EN-CA">The Long Road To Stardom</span></h1>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Two hundred
and fifty years later and after travelling across the Atlantic four times and
developed in five different countries the pedigree of Face Time Bourbon has
achieved a status that puts him among the best trotters in Europe. His win in
the Prix d`Amerique and his current 18 wins, 3 seconds in 22 starts stamps his
international passport to possibly being one of the greatest ever in France if
not worldwide. His only loss was actually a win but disqualified by a momentary
break.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He is by
current top French sire Ready Cash and from a mare by Love You, a sire that has
more racing progeny in the world than any other active sire due to his own
racing excellence and siring success. But that is now and there are 69 that
have the same breeding and only three that have significant earnings. Those
good ones include International star Bold Eagle with over $5 million Euros, and
very similar maternal connections featuring Florestan and Speedy Crown, and
Atlas De Joudes with just over $180,000. So what makes the difference? It all boils down to the maternal lines from
the second dam down and, especially in the case of Face Time Bourbon, a mare
called Etta Extra, his third dam by Florestan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The story
of Etta Extra and her owner Rainer Engelke, who is responsible for all of the
current horses with the Bourbon name, is worthy of a separate column but for
now lets look back to see what the maternal line brought to make Etta Extra so
special.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The
maternal line goes all the way back to the 1750s and is shown as Family Number
Forty Six in the English stud book. Early on the line gets a significant boost
in the form of a mare imported to North America called Letitia who has an
x-factor double trace to the exceptional mare by Bartlets Childers called Amorett.
She in turn has a daughter by Dungannon who also has Amorett maternally. Her
daughter is bred to Lance, an American sire whose dam has an X-factor double to
another distinguished daughter of Bartlets Childers called Miss Colville. That
breeding results in a mare bred to one of the early stars of American racing in
Bertrand whose maternal line is the same going back to Miss Colville. This is
an unprecedented build-up of direct traces to the origin of the X-factor, the
ancestral Spanker Mare.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The next two
generations, bred first to a pacing sire of the Copperbottom breed then to a
Kentucky trotter/saddlebred sire called Edwin Forrest, contribute little in
terms of pedigree but introduce the trotting instinct into the mix. The next
step is a big one with spectacular results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-CA">Sophie by
Edwin Forrest is bred to Happy Medium by Hambletonian whose dam is by Dictator
whose dam brings in the first connection to an important X-factor source of
American origin in American Star. The result is World Champion Nancy Hanks born
in </span><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">1886 who was
undefeated and was the first 2:05 trotter in harness-racing history.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nancy
Hanks was then bred to Peter The Great whose maternal line also has a maternal
trace to a Bartlets Childers mare plus a first encounter with Pilot Jr, sire of
Miss Russell, the Queen Among Queens, the subject of my book of the same name
that describes the maternal origins of the Standardbred breed. The next step is
even more epochal as that mating produced a daughter, Markala, that was bred to
Vice Commodore whose dam is also a daughter of Nancy Hanks making Markala a 3x3
X-factor inbred to her maternal legacy. Markala is then bred to Baronmore whose
maternal contribution is yet another trace to Bartlets Childers and another key
American X-factor source in Mambrino Patchen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The
result of that mating is Anna Maloney, born in 1912, who raced in the United
States for several years before joining a wave of exports to Europe following
the first world war as breeders there sought to restock their breeding farms depleted
by the war effort. She actually went first to Belgium before producing her
first French bred foal in 1923 by Passeport, a French sire tracing back on sire
line to imported English thoroughbred origins in the early 1800s whose dam is
inbred to the X-factor through a full sister to the dam of Belle Poule and
another trace back to a daughter of Bartlets Childers. Her first foal by
Passeport was Amazone B, a 54 time winner including twice in the Prix
d’Amerique, and a French record holder in 1931. It was her third breeding to
Passeport, however, that produced Heroine B in 1929 and her French breeding
legacy was underway with the tenth dam of Face Time Bourbon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">At
this stage her X-factor connections take a different route as her lineage comes
into contact with the likes of Belle Poule, Perce Neige and Gladys, all mares
that have extensive traces back to the X-factor source in England but none more
so than Belle Poule. There are actually two mares called Belle Poule, the
second one being a granddaughter of the first and also the dam of the great
Intermede, called by some the French equivalent of Volomite for his impact on
maternal breeding in France.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The
next three dams are a source of some controversy since they were all bred on
the same farm under suspicious circumstances. The first of these dams, Sonate,
born in 1940, is the big question mark being officially registered as by a
French son of Intermede called Gael. He was known to be virtually infertile and
had just 2 foals in 1936 and none in 1937. Gael is known colloquially in France
as the "ghost" stallion and here is why.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">At the end of the 1930s, it was decided to close French breeding to establish a line to be known </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">as "French trotters" and to bar the breeding to American bloodlines. Calumet Delco was in France </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">racing at the time having been bought by Henri Masson and imported to France in 1934 at the age </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">of four. Born in 1930 at the famous Calumet Farm in Kentucky, he was a full brother to the dam </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">of Stars Pride from a mare by the X-factor stallion San Francisco. He was sold to Wisconsin interests </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">where he was a state champion at three before being sold and exported to France where he won 24 </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">races and earned 350,000 francs in winnings (a nice sum for the era) and his career included a 5th </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">place in the 1938 Prix d'Amérique.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;"><br /></span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">But it is as a stallion that he made his greatest impact. As an American horse he was not allowed to </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">have any foals registered under the new rules but in between his occasional races in 1937, and </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">because of his gentle disposition, he was allowed to run with the mares at Haras de Ginai to act as </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">a teaser to bring the mares into heat for breeding to the farm stallion Gael except that, in this case, </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">Calumet Delco was more than a teaser and ended up covering them himself. The result was that </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">three foals were allowed to be registered as "unexpected exceptions" but no more such foals were </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">to be allowed in the new registry.</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">Two stallions Quiroga II and Quiproquo II and a mare called Quinauderie are the three registered</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;"> by Calumet Delco in 1938 and among the direct descendants of these one finds some great horses </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">such as Galopin du Ravary, Ilster d'Espien, Flambeaux des Pins, and Hadol du Vivier but that's </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">not all. The farm stallion Gael, who had fertility issues with just one foal in 1936 and none in 1937 </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">suddenly had a revival with three foals in 1938, six in 1939, four more in 1940 and his last one in </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">1941 when coincidentally or not Calumet Delco reappears as a stallion in Germany after four years </span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;">of obscurity.</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222;"> </span><span lang="EN-CA">The consensus is that all of these later foals were by Calumet Delco and not Gael, a belief confirmed </span><span lang="EN-CA">in a sworn statement by the son of the owner of Haras de Ginai in later years. The registration of </span><span lang="EN-CA">Gael as the sire, however, still remains as the official record although the legacy of Calumet Delco </span><span lang="EN-CA">and his maternal connection to the great Stars Pride has clearly left a big mark on French maternal </span><span lang="EN-CA">lines including those of Face Time Bourbon. The great French Champion Ourasie's dam Fleurasie </span><span lang="EN-CA">has Calumet Delco on both sides of her pedigree and one of those occasions is a Calumet Delco </span><span lang="EN-CA">son bred to a mare called Stele registered as by Gael in 1940, the same year as Sonate.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Sonate
was bred to Quiproquo and her foal Dragonne III was then bred to Quiroga II to
produce Jonque so it is now proven, although not offically, that all three
mares were bred to Calumet Delco or one of his sons. Calumet Delco as the sire
of Sonate would be a significantly consequential addition to the maternal line
but we must, unfortunately, accept what is registered as true and move on to
Samos P, the start of another special cycle of maternal power. She was bred to
Luth Grandchamp producing Dimitria who picked up the first connection to Belle Poule through a
maternal daughter of Intermede. The dam of Luth Grandchamp is by another
American refugee called Net Worth whose dam and second dam are both X-factor
doubles to Mambrino Patchen, the same source doubled up in Anna Maloney. <o:p></o:p></span><span style="background-color: white;">The world of trotting is indeed a small world</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Dimitria was a sensation for her day in the
sixties earning over 1.7 million kroner mostly in Sweden, winning the Elitlopp, and being one of the
first French breds to take a sub 2:00 record. </span><span style="background-color: white;">I have a remote personal connection to Dimitria through a friend in Finland, Marja Mahlamaki, who has a small farm in Vihti near where Dimitria was sent for a potential breeding to Keystone Patriot. The farm where she spent a year in Finland was co-owned by Marjut Stenberg and Marja's brother-in-law Matti. I visited with Marja in 2009 and Matti was then and still is in charge of the racetrack in Teivo. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Marja, known by her friends as Mammu, is a long time supporter and volunteer in the Finnish breeding industry and remembers that Sweden was experiencing an outbreak of Equine Herpes and Dimitria was sent out of Sweden as a precaution. She already had four foals by French sires with little success at that time and missed that opportunity with Keystone Patriot and now had to wait six months in quarantine before being</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"> sent across the Atlantic for a mating to Speedy Crown thus returning the maternal line to its roots in North America and England. That </span><span style="background-color: white;">produced the mare Une Crown born in Italy and then taken back to France.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Une Crown produced fourteen foals with the first eight in France and the last six
in Sweden. Etta Extra was her first foal and the only time bred to Florestan and her breeder was a Swede named Valentin Gosta of Stockholm and a former Chairman of the Swedish Trotting Association, with a small farm in France, and who had also previously bought Dimitria after her racing career. He was also the owner of Glenna H, the great grandmother of Victory Tilly, the all-time money winner in Sweden. </span>Etta Extra's racing career was short but at three she had three of her four wins at Vincennes and earned 51,665 Euro in her ten starts. She was bought at the 1996 Deauville mixed sale for $70,000 by Rainer Engelke who was intrigued by her breeding by Florestan to a daughter of Speedy Crown, and her maternal line to Nancy Hanks. The under-bidder was the renowned breeder Jean Pierre Dubois.<span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">There
was more to that match that he was perhaps not aware of at the time although he
recognized the influence of Florestan’s dam, the great mare and international
champion Roquepine. She carried an X-factor double to Intermede and Belle Poule
as did her dam Jalna IV to the older Belle Poule as well as to Perce Neige. A
powerhouse maternal line indeed behind an incredible performer for her day who
beat the best trotters in North America in the International Trot at Yonkers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">But Rainer
Engelke’s work back in 2009 was just beginning. With Etta Extra as his
foundation mare at his newly bought farm in France he sought out crosses that
would bring back her Stars Pride and Speedy Crown bloodlines. Her second foal
by Cezio Josselyn did the trick being by a son of Armbro Goal, a Speedy Crown
son with a Stars Pride line dam. But that was not the key in producing Kamera
Bourbon, the second dam of Face Time Bourbon. She went on to race and earn over
196,000 Euro and the secret ingredient to her success as a racemare was likely
the dam of her sire named Quezira tracing back to Belle Poule as well as having
a maternal line to the old Belle Poule making her also an x-factor double to
the principal source of that legacy in France. Quezira is the second dam of the
exceptional mare Belina Josselyn and the maternal line of several other stars
such as Uza Josselyn, and Fleche Bourbon who is inbred maternally to Quezira
and a recent winner of the prestigious Prix de President de la Republique for monte trotters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Etta Extra
was subsequently bred to Love You and produced a 1.5 million Euro winner and
Prix d`Amerique contestant in Qualita Bourbon. That success inspired Engelke to
breed Kamera Bourbon to LoveYou and why not because he carries both Speedy
Crown and Stars Pride across his pedigree. What perhaps he did not know again
was that the dam of Love You is also an x-factor double to Belle Poule as well
as carrying the maternal influences of both Gladys and Perce Neige. An added
bonus is Love You’s North American maternal line that goes back to a daughter
of San Francisco plus another source to American Star.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">As Rainer
Engelke said in his interview about Etta Extra prior to the 2009 Prix
d'Amerique in which his mare Qualita Bourbon, a three quarter sister to the dam
of Face Time Bourbon, finished third.
She too has Speedy Crown and Stars Pride across her pedigree in addition, of
course to the maternal doubles to Belle Poule and other X-factor sources.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">“<i>At every opportunity I try to create that in my
breedings. Now that I have had several years of breeding experience I can tell
you what to do. It is very simple. You have to double up on the best American
blood with the best French blood. That is to say double up on Florestan, double
up on Speedy Crown, as well as Fandango and Chambon P. Double up in the mare
and also with the stallion. If you do that you have a chance to have, from time
to time, a good horse.<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Myself, I believe it is necessary to look at the sixth
– seventh generation. Jean-Pierre Dubois says you have to stop at the third.
But for me I don’t think that is enough. If the pedigree is well filled
throughout, you increase your chances. If there is a hole you take the risk of
falling through it.”</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Inbred maternally to both Speedy Crown and Florestan,
by a sire inbred to Florestan and from a mare inbred to Speedy Crown with a
maternal line full of great champions on two continents. There are obviously no
holes present in Face Time Bourbon.</span></div>
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pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-67509424732760627792020-02-27T07:51:00.000-08:002020-02-27T07:51:35.292-08:00Greenshoe - 3 Year old Trotter of the YearI had a request for me to look at a trotter such as Greenshoe to give my take on his pedigree and see if he was also the result of a maternal build-up of maternal influence like Shartin N. His pedigree does, in fact, exhibit many of the same characteristics. Like Shartin N he is, for starters, by far the best performer in his maternal line with very little to show past his third dam in terms of high earnings or speed. I had not looked in depth at his pedigree previously but I am not surprised at what I found.<br />
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In my book about maternal lines, Queen Among Queens, I devote a chapter to examining the development of some of the most popular and prolific maternal families and show the point at which they suddenly expanded into production of high speed and earnings. I called this the "trigger" effect because it seemed to happen when certain key maternal influences first came together. Those influences are all based on X-factor mares also described in an earlier chapter on the trigger effect. Names such as Adioo, Hatteras, Kathleen, Manette and Oniska and the inbred daughters Margaret Parrish and Helen Hanover, are all key X-factor sources that when combined or doubled up in a pedigree can step up the performance of the individuals that inherit them.<br />
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In my research I have determined that the X-factor traces back to England and the so-called Ancestral Mom through the daughters of Diomed, a stallion imported to North America in the late 1700's. His legacy is not restricted to standardbred mares but also is evident in the thoroughbred breed and many of those early North American mares show up in other ways in the maternal lines of standardbreds, in particular through the daughters of American Star and Mambrino Patchen with extensive thoroughbred dams that feature Diomed. That is where the family of Greenshoe begins.<br />
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His maternal family name is Lady Bunker born in 1873. She was by Mambrino Patchen and out of an American Star mare. The second dam is by the thoroughbred Tiger from an unknown mare and whose dam is Jane Hunt, the maternal family of one of the aforementioned trigger mares Kathleen. That combination in itself is a good foundation but there is one key ingredient needed to complete the package and that is an intersection with the legacy of Miss Russell, the Queen Of Queens.<br />
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Lady Bunker had two daughters, one of which ended up in Europe. The other one, Welcome Bunker, also had two daughters by Bobby Macgregor who brought nothing extra to the table but is responsible for Axcharm, the 10th dam of Greenshoe. Two generations of nothing added then we get to Farr (1934)who is notable only for the fact that we will see her later. Her daughter Fardean is the first on the line to inherit a maternal boost as her sire is Dean Hanover whose dam is inbred no fewer than four times to Mambrino Patchen including the trigger mare Hatteras. Still no Miss Russell however.<br />
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Fardean was bred to Blaze Hanover who contributes Adioo, the first link to Miss Russell, to the mix and their daughter, Gypsy Blaze, is then bred to Carlisle that makes her a double copy to Adioo maternally. The next step is a big one when Carlisle Blaze meets Speedy Crown who brings both Oniska and another trace to Adioo into the family. Up until now, through 10 generations the family has produced just one performer with more than $30,000 earned and that is Carlisle Blaze. Her daughter by Speedy Crown is called Southern Crown, the best of her 14 foals with $88K made. Of the 14 foals there are just two by Speedy Crown but it was Southern Crown that became the 4th dam of Greenshoe. Her best was by Texas, a double/double pedigree colt that made $552,000. Her second best was Southern Drawl ($113k) by Super Bowl and that was the one that really triggered the maternal line since he brings in the legacy of the great Margaret Parrish for the first time. Her full sister Blaze of Fury was not bred to Super Bowl and produced just one winner of $114K and no fillies of note<br />
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Southern Drawl was bred to Balanced Image and produced the third dam of Greenshoe and the first time the Noble Victory line is introduced. Balanced Image brings in maternal support from Adioo, Oniska and Hatteras maternally in X-factor position but more importantly his maternal dam goes back through Farr (1934) to the same source as the maternal line of Greenshoe, the combination of Mambrino Patchen and American Star. We now have a pedigree that combines double copies of every possible X-factor trace to Diomed. Southern Drawl earns $430,000 and is bred to Yankee Glide, producing Sheer Soul, a TB pattern and DD pattern mare and 2nd dam of Greenshoe. Now we are ready for the final ingredient that produces the explosion in the form of Greenshoe.<br />
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Sheer Soul is bred to Donato Hanover whose dam is by Donerail, a carrier of Margaret Parrish and in addition has another Margaret Parrish line maternally through Rodney, the same one as in the dam of Super Bowl. Donato's dam, D Train, is therefore a double copy to the most important maternal influence of the X-factor in the trotting breed. This powerful maternal influence has a downside. however, especially for a budding stallion. It predicates that the stallion will be essentially a producer of great fillies and for Donato Hanover that is very much the case. He has five million dollar winners and the top four are all fillies and all of them have Margaret Parrish maternally and are double copies to the great mare accordingly.<br />
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Greenshoe's dam, Designed To Be, is the fifth best filly with $663K made and he was her first foal. Her second foal is the million dollar yearling Maverick.<br />
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Adding lustre to the pedigree of this great colt and stallion prospect is his TB pattern pedigree since he is by a Valley Victory line sire and from a dam that is inbred to the Valley Victory line. He is also a DD pattern through his combination of Noble Victory and Speedster lines maternally that are duplicated in the maternal lines of Father Patrick and his sire Cantab Hall. That Noble Victory line that was picked up along the way is a crucial element in the profile of the best by Father Patrick. Every one of his top performers has a Noble Victory line in the dam - just another thing to look for in the search for a Champion.<br />
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I am sure there are some that say this is all 20-20 hindsight but I am constantly reminded of the words of Marg Neal in an interview with Dean Hoffman for Hoofbeats magazine in 2001.<br />
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"We have been conditioned by the restriction of catalogues and advertising to view our horses, at most, as three generation animals. There are many people out there that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework"<br />
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" There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change. I like to see a mare that is inbred and a sire that is not."<br />
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Pedigrees - Patterns - Profiles - Percentages</div>
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<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-84055424528227386022020-02-25T13:54:00.001-08:002020-02-25T13:57:14.243-08:00Shartin N - 2019 Horse Of The yearIn researching my book on the maternal lines of Standardbreds called "Queen Among Queens" I found a book called Patterns Of Greatness by Alan Porter, a book about thoroughbred breeding. There was one quotation in there that spurred my interest in the evolution of maternal lines and the influence of special individuals. He urged breeders to "delve deeply" into a pedigree to discover the underlying genetic strengths which are not readily apparent in the first few generations. As he said<br />
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"This can reveal that one particular back ground cross has been built up to a point where it dominates a pedigree and reaches a critical mass reinforcing vital genes to the point where they explode in the form or a dynamic performer"<br />
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<a href="https://1drv.ms/b/s!Alh7BkyY8XRBlxuw74igxcgFe7IP">Shartin N</a> is a perfect example of this scenario.<br />
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He further speculated that close inbreeding maternally can bring about positive mutations as he referenced Marianna Haun's book on the X-factor, a genetic inheritance carried on the X-chromosome of the mares on the maternal line.<br />
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That may sound a bit airy-fairy to most readers but it has been a key consideration of mine since reading and writing about it and indeed was a factor in my recommendation to purchase McWicked, the 2018 Horse Of The Year by McArdle. Now we have a similar situation with the 2020 winner of the Dan Patch Horse Of The Year in Shartin N. It is a long story so bear with me because in part it goes back to the very beginnings of the standardbred breed maternally to a daughter of Bartlets Childers, foundation sire of the thouroghbred and to his full brother Flying Childers, the founder of the Standardbred breed. To read the full story of these individuals you can find it in Queen Among Queens available by download from the pedigreematching.com website.<br />
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In the near term the pedigree of Shartin N revolves around the presence of Tar Heel maternally as it did with McWicked, and as indeed it did for many of McArdles top perfomers since it is the most consistent factor in his stallion profile. Shartin N is by a son of McArdle called Tintin In America, who like McArdle also has a maternal line that is dominated by the influence of Tar Heel, one of the best broodmare sires of the past fifty years, and appears in the maternal lines of other great broodmare sires such as Albatross and Bret Hanover.<br />
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Tar Heel's influence on maternal lines comes from his dam by Volomite whose dam was by San Francisco whose own dam was Oniska, a 2x3 maternal inbred to the X-factor influence through Lida W, a daughter of Nutwood, the best son of Miss Russell, the subject of my book "Queen Among Queens".<br />
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Shartin N's dam, Bagdarin, goes back seven generations to a mare called Protege by Jack Potts who was one of the first great broodmare sires downunder and his dam was by Steiner from a daughter of Nutwood called Miss Marjoe. The dam of Protege was Abyssinia who brings a maternal trace through the dam of World Champion Arion whose dam was Manette by Nutwood. Protege, therefore is an X-factor double to Miss Russell, a pretty good starting point.<br />
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Protege had one daughter, Chenault, by U Scott who was then bred to Bachelor Hanover whose maternal family is one of the top maternal families in Minnehaha that is also one of the longest since it is the one that goes all the way back to that daughter of Bartlets Childers in the late 1600's.<br />
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The mating of Bachelor Hanover to Chenault produced Bravine, Shartin's fifth dam. By coincidence, perhaps, the fourth dam of Tintin In America, Zenover, was a descendant of one of the best maternal families in Australia/New Zealand and she too was by Bachelor Hanover and from a mare by U Scott. That makes Shartin N an X-factor double to its source , the ancestral mom herself, The Spanker Mare. But that is just another component of her maternal strength, there is much more added in the next three generations that built up into the explosion that is Chartin N.<br />
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Bravine foaled Kiatina by Fallacy whose maternal line contributed a North American link to the X-factor through two daughters of American Star. Kiatina was then bred to Noodlum, a son of Bachelor Hanover, whose maternal line brings in another trace to American Star through the dam of World Champion Dexter, the fastest son of Hambletonian, as well as doubling up the family of Minnehaha.<br />
The breeding to Noodlum produced Kinsale, third dam of Shartin N, and she had six daughters but only two of them, both daughters of Save Fuel, had success as broodmares, and that was when the pedigree met up with Meadow Skipper for the first time through Save Fuel's dam by that sire.<br />
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Slatina is the second dam of Shartin N and her full sister is Chivasso who, when bred to McArdle, produced the first decent performer in this entire maternal line to date in McDana N who made $165,000 mostly in the United States. She now has another of her sons, Italian Delight N, a recent import, currently racing in Yonkers Open competition as a result of two wins at the Meadowlands taking a record of 1.50.1.<br />
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Slatina was bred to Live Or Die whose dam, Mica Lobell, is an X-factor double to Tar Heel, and whose maternal line goes back to yet another daughter of Nutwood called Stray Moments and three more traces to American Star. This was exactly the kind of breeding needed to provide the fuel for the fire lit by Tintin In America in the breeding to Bagdarin, the first female in the maternal line to beat 2:00 with a win in 1.57.4.<br />
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Tintin In America has a dam that is a maternal X-factor double to Tar Heel and as a filly Shartin N inherits that bonus to her own maternal traces to Tar Heel through her own dam. This is in addition to the interesting X-factor doubles to Bachelor Hanover and to Meadow Skipper.<br />
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In recent times I have also noticed two pedigree patterns, which I code as DD or TB, that occur often in top individuals. Shartin N is an example of the TB pattern where the Adios/Hal Dale sire line of Mcardle is inbred in her dam through sons of Adios and Good Time for an added bonus.<br />
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This affinity of Tintin In America for Tar Heel maternally is evident in his best performers with the next best , also a filly, bred in similar fashion but perhaps not with the same long term build up maternally. His sire, McArdle shows the same affinity for Tar Heel with the vast majority of his best being from mares that are X-factor doubles to Tar Heel or are X-factor doubles themselves as a result of McArdles own maternal doubles to Tar Heel in his each of his first three dams.<br />
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McWicked had the added benefit of having a DD pedigree pattern where the maternal lines in his dam are the same as those in his own dam and those of his sire. The DD pattern has also produced such recent champions as Greenshoe, Six Pack, Manchego, Mission Brief, Gimpanzee, Hannelore Hanover and Always B Miki among others while TB patterned champions include Jimmy Freight, Warrawee Ubeaut, and several of the best by Muscle Hill including Marion Marauder, Propulsion, and Green Manalishi.<br />
<br />
My fascination with the Tar Heel influence, in addition to supporting my recommendation to buy McWicked as a result of four of his first five dams being double copies to Tar Heel or his dam-sire Volomite, pointed me to my first and only credit as a breeder. That was in the form of Scarlet Chaser, from a mare inbred to Tar Heel. His sire was Hussy Chaser, a colt I bought as a yearling for $1,500 on the strength of him being from a mare that was also an x-factor inbred to Tar Heel, and he went on to be the second richest Maritime bred in his day earning over $520,000. I got him back when he retired and then looked for the right mare, one with the Tar Heel double and found one in Lucky Hare, a daughter of Precious Bunny. The resulting colt, Scarlet Chaser retired last year after making over $240,000 and being race timed in 1.49.4 to become the fastest race-timed colt ever bred on PEI and the fastest and richest Island bred colt by an Island based sire.<br />
<br />
Thank you Alan Porter.<br />
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<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-73358311399822973422019-09-30T14:01:00.000-07:002019-09-30T14:01:11.116-07:00New Trotting Sires at LexingtonSires by Muscle Hill are popping up everywhere and there are two with their first crops in Lexington this year. We already have sires like Trixton, E L Titan and Southwind Spirit with foals racing so we can at least see if they have anything in common as far as mare preference.<br />
<br />
Bar Hopping and Southwind Frank do not have many in the first session so perhaps that is an omen. Nevertheless there will be good ones as there are for any sire. Their maternal lines are opposite. Bar Hopping's dam is linebred to Super Bowl while the dam of Southwind Frank is linebred to the Speedster line. In either case, though, based on sires with similar maternal lines they both will do best with mares that are linebred or inbred to the Speedster line or mares with no Speedy Crown line maternally. This is backed up by the early profiles of the sons of Muscle Hill at stud.<br />
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Of the 20 top ones 18 of them are from mares linebred or inbred to the Speedster line usually through Speedy Crown himself or Valley Victory. The broodmare sires involved are through Valley Victory (7) incl 6 of the top 10, other Speedy Crown (2), Super Bowl/Stars Pride (4), Noble Victory (4), and Pine Chip (3).The lone exceptions are Golden Trix from a mare that is both linebred and inbred to the Stars Pride line and has a second dam by Speedy Crown and Spoiled Princess who has no Speedy Crown maternally.<br />
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19 of the 20 have a Stars Pride line (16) and/or Noble Victory line (3) in their dams. The lone exception here is from a Dream Vacation (Pine Chip) mare that is inbred to Speedy Crown.<br />
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The dams that are Stars Pride line are inbred to Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown. A Super Bowl line shows up in 16 of the top 20 but not in the top 3.<br />
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The profile then is pretty straightforward. The dams should be<br />
<br />
Linebred of inbred to Speedster including at least one line through Speedy Crown.<br />
A Super Bowl line maternally would be preferable for Bar Hopping who like his sire has a dam linebred to Stars Pride.<br />
<br />
<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-22768769907474983042019-09-30T10:24:00.000-07:002019-09-30T10:24:16.991-07:00New Sires at LexingtonAlways B Miki will no doubt be the new sire in demand at the Lexington sale and the sales company have loaded the front end of the sale with his first offerings. That does not guarantee their success on the racetrack but certainly will boost their sales prices. Betting Line is another new sire that will draw attention along with Ontario sire Control The Moment.<br />
<br />
On the trotting side we will see the first yearlings by Southwind Farnk and Bar Hopping, both being sons of Muscle Hill. I will look at these in my next article.<br />
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<b>Always B Miki </b>is a son of Always A Virgin (Western Hanover) whose maternal lines are a combination of Artsplace and Big Towner lines. His pedigree is very similar to that of Big Bad John, an Ohio stallion with several crops racing. That sire is by Western Hanover from a mare that is also Artsplace - Big Towner and was a decent racehorse with over $1 million made. His performance as a sire, however, has been somewhat disappointing at just over 10% winners of over $100K although his best will give us a very good profile to use for Always B Miki.<br />
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The profile for Big Bad John is, and was, very predictable since it features mares that have Abercrombie and/or Big Towner maternally with 17 of the top 20 showing this connection. The three exceptions are from mares linebred to the Meadow Skipper line that have one of those lines through Albatross. In fact Albatross is another important feature of the profile since that sire is one of the maternal lines of Western Hanover and of Always A Virgin. An Albatross line, or a line by some other son of Meadow Skipper, shows up in 18 of Always A Virgin's top 20 and his two best also have Abercrombie and Big Towner lines.<br />
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One thing to note is that there are no top 20 performers by Big Bad John from Western Hanover (No Nukes) line dams. Another noteworthy feature of Big Bad John and Always A Virgin is that the Abercrombie line dams almost all have another Adios/Abercrombie line or a Big Towner line maternally. The one exception is inbred maternally to Albatross.<br />
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The profile I predict for success horses by Always B Miki will show they are from mares that are:<br />
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Linebred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.<br />
Linebred to the Adios/Abercrombie line or a combination of Abercrombie/Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.<br />
Preference to Cam Fella line dams or other Meadow Skipper line dams with Cam Fella maternally.<br />
No dams by No Nukes line sires. If there is an exception to the No Nukes line it would likely be through Jate Lobell as is the case for Always A Virgin and No Nukes line dams.<br />
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Applying this profile produces just 3 of 31 colts and 5 of the 27 fillies in the sale that fit the profile.<br />
<br />
<b>Betting Line </b>is by Bettors Delight and there are no existing sires that have his particular maternal combination of Western Hanover and Camtastic (Cam Fella) although there are three sires with Western Hanover dams with foals racing and all three are in Atlantic Canada. Malicious, being by Bettors Delight, is likely our best chance at a possible profile for Betting Line. If you look at all of the active stallions that are sons of Bettors Delight there is a distinct pattern that shows the best from mares that have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines maternally which is not surprising since these are the same lines in the dam of Bettors Delight.<br />
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In the case of Malicious his top 5 all have Abercrombie/Albatross line combinations with four of them being from Abercrombie line dams and one from a Western Ideal dam. Looking at the best ones by sons of Bettors Delight generally we see a similar pattern with sires like Mr Apples, Betterthancheddar, Im Gorgeous and Kenneth J with their best consisting of 3 from Abercrombie line dams and 2 from No Nukes line dams and in each case an Abercrombie/Albatross line combination maternally. The one outlier is the best of all, Lather Up, a horse with a unique pedigree that is probably one of a kind although there is a maternal line by a son of Meadow Skipper. Being from a Direct Scooter line dam, like several others by sons of Bettors Delight opens up the possibility of Somebeachsomewhere mares as long as they have Abercombie and a Meadow Skipper line.<br />
<br />
The predicted profile is for mares that are:<br />
<br />
Abercrombie, No Nukes or Direct Scooter line and have a maternal combination of Abercrombie or Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.<br />
<br />
This profile produces 5 of 20 colts and 2 of the 8 fillies on profile.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-19855325326060682362019-08-22T09:45:00.000-07:002019-08-22T09:45:46.334-07:00Canada Select - Forest City SaleThe 2019 sale roster contains around 300 yearlings, down 40 or so from last year primarily the result of more Canadian horses being sent to Harrisburg and Lexington where the shortage in yearlings and high American dollar makes it more attractive if you have the right pedigrees.<br />
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There are, consequently slim opportunities in the entries to the Canadian sale especially for the established sires such as Bettors Delight and Kadabra. There are, however, a couple of new sires worth looking at in Il Sogno Dream, a son of Cantab Hall, and State Treasurer, the fastest son of Real Desire.<br />
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Il Sogno Dream made most of his $1.2 million plus earnings as an aged race horse winning the likes of the Allerage in Lexington. His second dam is a full sister to the great Moni Maker. As a son of Cantab Hall he has several other sons of that sire to compare to. One interesting common factor in them so far is their preference for non - Speedy Crown line dams with Noble Victory line dams in particular being the best. Consider that Father Patrick, Explosive Matter, Uncle Peter, and Airzoom Lindy have all produced their best from Noble Victory line dams, primarily through Garland Lobell.<br />
<br />
Greenshoe by Father Patrick is from a Donato Hanover mare as are two others in his top six. Eight of his top 10 have the Noble Victory line in the 1st or 2nd dam.<br />
Pinkman by Explosive Matter is from an Angus Hall dam and eight of his top 12 are from mares by sons of Garland Lobell and 14 of his top 20 have a Noble Victory line 1st or 2nd dam.<br />
Super Schissel by Uncle Peter is from an Andover Hall mare<br />
Churita by Airzoom Lindy is out of a mare by Yankee Paco and his next two also are from Noble Victory line dams.<br />
Cassis top two are from mares by sons of Garland Lobell<br />
Dontyouforgetit's second best is out of a Conway Hall dam<br />
<br />
If the dam is not Noble Victory line chances are there is a second dam by a Noble Victory line sire which makes yearlings by Il Sogno Dream with such pedigrees the ones to focus on.<br />
<br />
In terms of performance rating the top one is Wickenburgh, first foal from an Angus Hall mare that made over $380K who is the top rated trotter in the sale at 96 - 1.51.4<br />
<br />
Tristar Dream is another colt that merits inspection. He is the second foal of a Conway Hall mare and rates a more modest 59 - 1.53.4 which makes him a bargain opportunity if he looks the part. Others of interest with respect to pedigree have questionable performance ratings such as Hey Ralphie 55-1.52.4, Iona Dream 51 - 1.54.2 and I Da Princess 46 - 1.53.1<br />
<br />
State Treasurer has sixteen entries. A winner of over $2 million and a regular on the Ontario Jockey Club circuit he should be warmly welcomed in his first crop on Ontario soil. His biggest win was in the Canadian Pacing Derby and he also won the United States equivalent US Pacing derby at the Meadowlands taking his record of 1.47m.<br />
<br />
As a son of Real Desire he was preceded in the stud ranks by Tell All, a son of Real desire that had a short and marginally successful stud career. Like his sire Tell All had a penchant for mares that had an Albatross line maternally and in fact his best is from an Albatross line dam. Such mares are rare these days and in fact Albatross is getting back in pedigrees past the third generation so that connection will be hard to find. State Treasurer is Western Ideal - Artsplace maternally so mares that have No Nukes and Abercrombie lines as well as, hopefully, Albatross would be the ones to watch for initially.<br />
<br />
As expected Albatross lines are rare and the only two I found were from mares with 10 foals or more which I seldom recommend. There are several with No Nukes - Abercrombie maternally but there is an interesting possibility with respect to the special pedigree pattern I call TB which shows up when a sire is bred to a mare that is inbred to the sires own sire line, in this case Abercrombie. There are five such yearlings in the sale and three of them also show the No Nukes connection.<br />
<br />
St Lads Yeah Yeah, a colt, is the top rated one at 98 - 1.49.4, then there are two fillies <span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Alumni Seelster at 88 - 1.50.2 and Silhouete Seelster 75 - 1.51.1. <span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Shiatzu Seelster 97 - 1.49.3 and Steelmeatreasure 69 - 1.51.0 are TB but with no line through No Nukes and St Lads Expresso 79 - 1.51.4 and Sorone Seelster 75 - 1.49.3 have No Nukes - Abercrombie lines maternally. All are worthy of inspection.</span></span><br />
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">The full list of recommended yearlings is available on the <a href="https://www.pedigreematching.com/standard-reports-racehorse-lineage-services">PM </a></span></span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://www.pedigreematching.com/standard-reports-racehorse-lineage-services">website</a></span></span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span><br />
<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-40040829505945379082019-02-06T10:28:00.000-08:002019-02-06T10:28:36.186-08:002019 Stallion FinderThe 2019 Stallion Finder is now available on the <a href="https://www.pedigreematching.com/publications-horse-breeding">PM website</a> .<br />
<br />
The document contains all of the significant stallions currently standing in North America with tables listed by stallion name, State/Province and sire lines along with suggested sire lines to look for in matching your mares.<br />
<br />
Among the interesting facts shown by the listing :<br />
<br />
280 Pacing Sires<br />
276 Trotting Sires<br />
Most Pacing stallion sons at stud - Western Hanover 31, Rocknroll Hanover 18<br />
Most Trotting stallion sons at stud - Muscles Yankee 25, Muscle Hill 24<br />
Oldest Pacing stallion - Dream Away 1994<br />
Oldest Trotting stallion - Giant Hit 1992<br />
Most Pacing Stallions by State/Province - Ohio 41, Ontario 34, Indiana 34<br />
Most Trotting Stallions by State/Province - Indiana 51, Ohio 45, Ontario 32<br />
<br />
There are stallions standing in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Kansas for the first time in the Stallion Finder.<br />
<br />
Prince Edward Island is down to only one stallion and the Sires Stakes program for trotters will soon be extinct unless we find a couple of additional stallions for this breeding season. If you know of any soon to be retired stallions that may be available for a last ditch lease on life let me know. Stars Pride line or Valley Victory line preferred.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com61tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-28805888439649829252018-12-30T08:46:00.002-08:002018-12-30T08:57:18.212-08:00Pacing Stallions for 2019<br />
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Lazarus and All Bets Off</div>
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<br /></div>
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Considering that Bettors Delight is arguably the best pacing
stallion in the world today it is surprising that he does not have many
sons at stud. But then again his sire Cams Card Shark is in the same boat.
Bettors Delight and his full brother Roll With Joe, along with Four Starzzz
Shark are the only "major" sires that Cams Card Shark has produced. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/44oxki3wcvj9v9e/Lazarus.pdf/file">Lazarus</a></div>
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<br /></div>
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The current list of sires by Bettors Delight shows 9 in
North America but only four of them have foals racing. Perhaps the most
prominent of those is I'm Gorgeous whose limited production includes the
exceptional colt Lather Up whose dam is by In The Pocket by Direct Scooter, the
same sire line as the dam of Lazarus. That does not really prove much other
than the Bettors Delight line and Direct Scooter lines are compatible under
certain circumstances and perhaps mares by other Direct Scooter line sires such
as Somebeachsomewhere will be important to the success of Bettors Delight sons
at stud especially Lazarus.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What adds a bit of credibility to that connection is the
success of the best filly so far from a Somebeachsomewhere mare,
Youaremycandygirl. She is by American Ideal, a Western Hanover line, but it is
the maternal side of that sire that is important since it is a combination of
Direct Scooter and Albatross lines just like those of Lazarus. The closest sire
overall to the pedigree of Lazarus is the Cam Fella son Village Jiffy whose
maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Nero, like Albatross a son of Meadow
Skipper. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
An interesting feature of all of the current sires by
Bettors Delight is the Albatross maternal connection, something that is a key
part of the success of Bettors Delight generally. In fact almost all have 4x4
maternal crosses to Albatross or his sire Meadow Skipper. That link to Albatross
is very noticeable in their best offspring. Kenneth J's eight that earned over
$100K include seven with that connection. Betterthancheddar shows 6/6 for his
$100K winners. Im Gorgeous is 5/6. </div>
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<br /></div>
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All Bets Off and Lazarus have the same 4x4 Albatross cross maternally
so there is a high degree of probability that their success as sires will
depend upon finding mares that continue the trend. Village Jiffy whose pedigree
is closest to Lazarus Village has 19 of his top 20 with a maternal cross of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meadow Skipper through a son or an Albatross
line sire. Given that Albatross is fast disappearing in the first three dams of
todays broodmares this may create a problem. There is, however, another option.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Adios line, particularly through Abercrombie, is also an
important part of the profile of Bettors Delight since his own dam is by a son
of Abercrombie. His profile shows 18 of his top 20 with an Adios line in the
dams with the exceptions having Big Towner. His sons appear to be doing the
same thing. </div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br clear="all" style="page-break-before: always;" />
</span>
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<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/73ocd01v46orr4v/All_Bets_Off.pdf/file">All Bets Off</a></div>
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<br /></div>
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When you win over $3 million that should give you
credibility as a potential sire - right ? </div>
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<br /></div>
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It is, however, unusual to see a modern day stallion enter
the stud as an eight year old and I am not aware of any valid comparisons to
prove whether this is a scenario for possible success. I am, however, fairly
convinced that stallion success is largely based on the maternal connections
that occur in the middle of the pedigree, the 3rd and 4th generation crosses of
the offspring in particular. All Bets Off is from a mare by Dexter Nukes, a son
of No Nukes, and has a second dam by the trotting bred Horton Hanover (Volomite
line). </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Camystic and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Driven
To Win, are the only sires with Dexter Nukes dams that have offspring racing
and they may offer a clue to the possibilities although their second dams are
through Adios line. Malicious is Western Hanover with a Adios line second dam also. The Adios line, in fact, is the dominant factor in their best.
The three good ones by Driven To Win have Abercrombie maternally and all three
have the Meadow Skipper/Albatross connection we see generally for Bettors
Delight line stallions. Camystic has 14 of his top 20 from Abercrombie line mares,
18 of 20 with Abercrombie in the pedigree and 19 of 20 with the Albatross
connection, the sole connection being the highly inbred Jackson K Down whose
dam was by Dexter Nukes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Mysticism in Florida is Western Hanover - Harold J (Volomite
line) maternally, the only active sire similar maternally to All Bets Off,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and his only two good ones have both
Abercrombie and Albatross lines in their dams. </div>
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<br /></div>
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It looks like the same profile keys for both Lazarus and All
Bets Off.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Predicted Profile</div>
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<br /></div>
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Mares that are line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper
line including one dam by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire plus
an adios/Abercrombie line maternally.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Example Pedigrees</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/owfjddfica1ugl5/Sweet_Lady_Jane_Hypo.pdf/file">Sweet Lady Jane</a>, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/u63yae6un4h23ch/Pocket_Comb_Hypo.pdf/file">Pocket Comb</a>, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/d4wcqdembwlfboi/Bay_Girl_Hypo.pdf/file">Bay Girl</a></div>
<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-47905661149217940782018-12-29T05:55:00.001-08:002018-12-29T05:55:47.221-08:00New Stallions for 2019 - Tactical Landing<div class="MsoNormal">
Tactical Landing</div>
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<br /></div>
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With the addition of <a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/sca8mtvawlucrvq/Tactical_Landing.pdf/file">Tactical Landing</a> to the stallion ranks
there are now 13 sons of Muscle Hill standing in North America - I hope that is
not a bad omen. As a race horse he did not have much luck until late in his
three year old season when he convincingly won back to back major stakes in the
Breeders Crown and the TVG to just get past his $800,000 purchase price. That
was not enough to get him any year-end honours but enough to justify giving him
a chance as a stallion. He is, after all, a full brother to a $1.66 million
winner in the filly Mission Brief.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
His pedigree is unusual being from a mare by Italian bred
Varenne whose own stallion career has been somewhat of a disappointment and
whose broodmares are pretty much a disaster generally at 3.9% success rate in
producing $100K winners. Four out his top six credits, however, are from the
dam of Tactical Landing so she had to have something special. She was a
Breeders Crown winner at three and an X-factor double to both Speedy Crown and Stars
Pride. She was also an example of the TB pattern being by a Speedy Crown line
sire and from a dam that is inbred maternally to the same sire line.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tactical Landing has a double/double pedigree and like many
of the best by Muscle Hill has maternal connections to Speedy Crown, Noble
Victory and Stars Pride across his pedigree. His principal sire lines
maternally are through Varenne (Speedy Somolli line) and Pine Chip (Arnie
Almahurst line). As a Valley Victory line sire that puts him in the same category
as Glidemaster whose dam was by Mr Lavec (Speedy Somolli) - Florida Pro (Arnie
Almahurst). That may not be very auspicious considering the stud career of
Glidemaster but it should give us a good model to follow.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Glidemaster's best offspring was the exceptional mare Maven, a double
millionaire and a double/double pedigree as well. Her dam, M Stewart, was by American
Winner, whose dam was by Speedy Somolli, and her second dam was by Arnie
Almahurst, third dam by a son of Stars Pride - all of the lines in Tactical
Landing worth connecting too. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fourteen of Glidemaster's best were from non-Speedster line
dams and four of the exceptions had an Arnie Almahurst line maternally. Fifteen
of his best, including the top four, were inbred maternally to Speedster mostly
on the TB pattern. In that respect Maven was both DD and TB.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Expected Profile</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Non Speedy Crown line dams that are inbred maternally to
Speedster line and have Arnie Almahurst and/or Stars Pride lines maternally. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Example Breedings - <a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/o5a87peaas7t2n7/M_Stewart_Hypo.pdf/file">M Stewart</a>, <a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/01r9cjllea2kw9z/Mamora_Bay_HYPO.pdf/file">Mamora Bay</a></span>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-42006348004780844392018-12-27T08:02:00.000-08:002018-12-27T08:12:54.185-08:00New Stallions for 2019 - Trotters<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>International Moni</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
His sire is the French champion Love You, a sire that has
more offspring than any stallion currently standing worldwide. His dam is the
richest trotter of all time. With credentials like that International Moni
looks like a sure thing. There are , however, very few sure things in the
uncertain world of stallion success. Consider the following.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is the best foal of 10 by Moni Maker and the first one
by Love You. While 8 of these foals raced just two made over $100K. There is
just one of the 29 foals from Moni Maker's daughters that is a $100K winner. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The statistics for Love You are well below what we might
consider as successful in North America with less than a 10% success rate over
all for his racing offspring and 6.5% for his fillies that raced to date. His
broodmare credits show a 5% success rate.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Based on those statistics, if this was a North American
sire, I would suspect that breeders would be less than enthusiastic of his
chances of success. So how have the other sons of Love You fared out ?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/3s2bj307v4oauh3/International_Moni.pdf/file">International Moni</a> is #11 on Love You's top performers and
all four of the stallions above him stood at stud in France. The best of the
four is Quaker Jet at 5.6% and his last crop was 2016. Royal Dream is 2.9%,
Village Mystic is 2.6%, and Booster Winner is 0/67 in his first crop of three
year olds. The Swedish bred Nu Pagadi has a dam by a son of Speedy Crown but he
is 0/60 and no longer standing while Rocklyn in France also has a Speedy Crown
line dam and is the best siring son of Love You at 6.4% winners of over $100K. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
International Moni is the first new stallion in several
years to have a dam by Speedy Crown with the last significant ones being the
sons of Valley Victory, namely Muscles Yankee, Donerail, Victory Dream, Lindy
Lane, and Yankee Glide. Only the last one, Yankee Glide, continues to produce
occasional top horses and indeed is the one whose dam most closely resembles
Moni Maker in terms of pedigree being by Speedy Crown and with a Stars Pride
line second dam. Yankee Glide's best three year old is from a mare by Windsongs
Legacy that has second and third dams that are Stars Pride and Speedy Crown
line respectively. In fact that is typical of Yankee Glides best since 16 of
his top 20 are from non Speedy Crown line dams. 17 of the top 20 have a
maternal line dam by Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown and 18 of 20 have a
Stars Pride line present.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Predicted Profile</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Stars Pride line or Noble Victory line dams with a second or
third dam by Speedy Crown, a son or a Speedy Somolli line. Preference to mares
that also have Stars Pride and/or Noble Victory lines maternally. Speedy Crown line broodmares only when broodmare sire as a Stars Pride line dam.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Example - <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/zw5w8e7b3mdf0s5/Yursa_Hanover_HYPO.pdf/file">Yursa Hanover</a>, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/52wxu41wyj1j71h/Bee_A_Magician_HYPO.pdf/file">Bee A Magician</a></span>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-79833272595878406162018-11-01T11:14:00.001-07:002018-11-01T18:22:43.530-07:00Breeders Cup 2018The 2018 Breeders Crown for Standardbreds is over and as expected eight of the twelve winners had double/double or DD pedigrees. The four others had something in common too - a pedigree pattern that shows up in many of the top thoroughbreds. For lack of a better acronym lets call it TB as opposed to DD. It turns out that the TB pattern has been hiding in plain sight all along in top Standardbreds, especially trotters, and a look at the top 20 North American bred trotters shows the richest one, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/22lnh2ti3lbc15m/Moni_Maker.pdf/file">Moni Maker</a>, to be a perfect example. She is by Speedy Crown, a son of Speedy Scot and from a mare that is inbred to Speedy Scot and that is the TB pattern. Speedy Crown, by the way, is a DD and so is the dam of Moni Maker - SURPRISE. The top 20 have 6 that are TB, 12 that are DD and 2 that are of mixed French and North American bloodlines.<br />
<br />
A look at the top two and three year old thoroughbreds in North America shows 7 of the top 10 to date in each age group with TB or DD patterns. The two year olds are led by <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/4rjkeau37ecd1xc/Bellafina.pdf/file">Bellafina</a> who is both TB and DD and is the favorite in Fridays $2 million Juvenile Filly race at 1 1/16th. She has won three straight including two G1 races and a G2. There are two other fillies that are double patterned in the same race with Splashy Kisses and Baby Nina both long shots. The Juvenile Turf has one such in Maries Diamond, a stakes winner from Ireland. Tight Ten in the Juvenile Colt is another longshot chance with both patterns.<br />
<br />
The two year old races have 31 TB pattern entrants and 10 with DD including the five noted above. In the races for three year olds and older on Saturday there are 47 TB, 13 DD and 5 that are both including Santa Monica in the Mares Turf, Next Shares in the BC Mile, Robert Bruce in the BC Turf, and Lone Sailor and Axelrod in the BC Classic going for $6 million. The favourite in the Classic is Accelerate, a DD pedigree and winner of three straight G1 races, but my personal sentimental favourite is another DD called <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/0fx7ew377h3ihcd/Catholic_Boy.pdf/file">Catholic Boy</a>, one of the first ones I noticed last year in the Breeders Cup and co-bred by successful Standardbred owner John Fielding. You can read more about this horse in my previous blog entry on John Fielding.<br />
<br />
Pedigree patterns like DD and TB are not guaranteed to give you a classic winner but the fact that so many of the best show these patterns certainly makes it worth while considering as a positive factor in buying and breeding race horses.<br />
<br />
There is one yearling in the Harrisburg Standardbred yearling sale that is both DD and TB. What is it worth to you to know which one it is ?<br />
<br />
Here are my picks for the winners from the DD and TB entrants<br />
<br />
Saturday<br />
Filly and Mare Sprint - Golden Mischief TB<br />
Turf Sprint - Disco Partner TB or Stormy Liberal DD<br />
Dirt Mile - City Of Light DD or Catalina Cruiser DD<br />
Filly and Mare Turf - Magic Wand TB, longshot Santa Monica TB/DD<br />
BC Sprint - Roy H TB<br />
BC Mile - Next Shares TB/DD<br />
BC Distaff - Blue Prize TB<br />
BC Turf - Enable TB<br />
BC Classic - Catholic Boy DD or Accelerate DD<br />
<br />
Sunday<br />
Juvenile Turf Sprint - Soldiers Call TB or Sergei Profokiev DD<br />
Juvenile Filly Turf - Concrete Rose DD<br />
Juvenile Filly - Bellafina TB/DD<br />
Juvenile Turf - Maries Diamond TB/DD<br />
BC Juvenile - Code Of Honor TB, longshot Tight Ten TB/DD<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-16190370732527185852018-10-20T10:17:00.000-07:002018-10-20T10:33:43.930-07:00Breeders Crown and the Double DoubleIt is becoming increasingly clear that if you want a world record holder or a Breeders Crown contender your chances are greatly increased if you have the Double/Double pattern in the pedigree of the yearlings you buy, particularily with trotters.<br />
<br />
In Lexington several world records were set with Homicide Hunter, Six Pack, Plunge Blue Chip and Iceattraction all having double/double pedigrees.<br />
<br />
In the eliminations of the Breeders Crown at Pocono five of the ten winners were double/double and a couple of others were very close to the pattern. They included pacer <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/1pfw235bo3pwkh7/Tall_Drink_Hanover.pdf/file">Tall Drink Hanover</a> and trotters <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/z39ca9lwasi57m7/Champagne_Jane.pdf/file">Champagne Jane</a>, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/h873yj9dhdr03c5/Woodside_Charm.pdf/file">Woodside Charm</a>, <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/a44wqe6u9z6et7v/Smart_As_Hill.pdf/file">Smart As Hill</a> and the undefeated <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/wdcsdm0iv75wp7c/Gimpanzee.pdf/file">Gimpanzee</a>, who is yet another top trotter produced by my client Order By Stable from his small but select broodmare band in New Jersey.<br />
<br />
Stefan Balaszi of Order By Stable asked me several years ago to review his mares, which numbered close to 20 at the time, since he had to that point been unsuccessful in producing anything really special. After selling several mares and buying a couple of replacements, and with my assistance with breeding suggestions the Order By Stable yearlings are now in high demand and for good reason. He now has the top three year old in Atlanta, a Hambletonian winner, and the top two year old filly in Gimpanzee, unbeaten in eight starts. Another Order By table bred BC contender named Kings County has qualified for the two year old colt final.<br />
<br />
In Harrisburg this year there are just 35 yearlings of the 876 yearlings in Book 1 with the ultimate pattern of success, 17 pacers and 18 trotters. Compare that percentage with the 50% of recent world records and Breeders Crown elimination winners and you can see what I mean by your chances being greatly increased. I expect the three year old elimination winners will continue that trend.<br />
<br />
Double/double pedigrees are not hard to spot in a three generation pedigree if you can recognize the sire lines. Read my previous blogs on the Double/Double for assistance.<br />
<br />
Harrisburg is your last chance this year to buy a potential champion. Ratings for Harrisburg are available by contacting me directly at norman@pedigreematching.com including the list of DD<br />
special yearlings.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-62304877664856871712018-09-23T10:14:00.000-07:002018-09-23T10:14:35.506-07:00Double - Double YearlingsAdd <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/1pfw235bo3pwkh7/Tall_Drink_Hanover.pdf/file">Tall Drink Hanover</a>, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.<br />
<br />
There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.<br />
<br />
<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-87575436746174822602018-09-01T13:32:00.002-07:002018-09-01T13:32:50.954-07:00Lexington Yearlings and The Double-DoubleMore yearlings than usual will be for sale at the Lexington, Kentucky sale this year scheduled for October with 720 being an increase of 160 over the 2017 sale. Lexington will also add a mixed sale after the yearling sale as the demand for racehorses and quality broodmares has greatly increased with consequent higher prices resulting from the sharp decrease in the overall horse population over the past few years.<br />
<br />
Harrisburg sale shows a drop from last year in terms of yearlings in Book 1 although there may be some added to their mixed sale as was the case last year when they reduced their yearling sessions to three from four.<br />
<br />
Lexington will give buyers their first look at sires like Sebastian K and Artspeak, the two most prominent first crop offerings. Father Patrick and Captaintreacherous will be back with the biggest consignments although neither has exactly overwhelmed the opposition in their first crop to the races this year.<br />
<br />
Sebastian K is a world record holder by Korean, a French bred sire, and with a maternal line that may be hard to connect with. His dam is by Probe, a son of Super Bowl, second dam by The Prophet, a grandson of the Axworthy sire Florican. There is a Speedy Crown line as the dam of Probe but nowhere else in the pedigree. Based on similar sires I would expect him to do well with mares that are linebred or inbred to Speedy Crown and that also have Super Bowl maternally and there are, surprisingly, not that many in this group of 19 yearlings. Just four fit my expected profile and the pedigrees are modest with ratings in the 70's.<br />
<br />
Artspeak has a maternal line of Artsplace - Matts Scooter, the same as Well Said. I'm not sure if that is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view, but Well Said and Artspeak have both been relocated from Hanover Farms to Ohio and Ontario respectively. There are just 9 Artspeak yearlings in Lexington in contrast to the 41 in Harrisburg but there is one that is a double-double pedigree - see if you can find him.<br />
<br />
Speaking of double-double pedigrees the latest one to surface is<a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/8ap525wfs2pavhu/Swandre_The_Giant.pdf/file"> Swandre The Giant</a>, undefeated in 7 starts in his rookie season. By Swan For All and from a dam line bred to Speedy Somolli, as is the dam of Swan For All, and complimented by lines through Arnie Almahurst and Super Bowl, the maternal lines of Andover Hall, sire of Swan For All, the pedigree is virtually the same as for World Champion <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/nc5jij6rd36exu6/Hannelore_Hanover.pdf/file">Hannelore Hanover</a>. History does repeat itself especially with pedigrees. That is why it is important to recognize and use Sire profiles in selecting breedings or yearlings.<br />
<br />
Swandre The Giant sold with a rating of 71 - 1.54.1 for $17,000 at last year's Hoosier Classic and was bought by Anthony MacDonald of PEI for his fractional ownership enterprise The Stable. He was subsequently sold shortly after the sale to the current owners who just might have recognized the chance for greatness that the pedigree of Swandre The Giant showed. He now moves to the barn of Jimmy Takter after selling for an undisclosed price of seven figures. The next great sire ?<br />
<br />
As our slogan goes Percentages - Patterns - Profiles, Know them, Recognize them, breed or own a Champion.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-19129335911901536612018-08-14T08:29:00.000-07:002018-08-14T08:29:39.723-07:002018 Yearling SalesProfiles and ratings are now available on the Pedigree Matching site for the New York (Goshen, Morrisville), Alberta and Ohio Jug sales. The recommendations for the Goshen and Morrisville sales are combined in the Ratings report. Sire profiles for all sires represented will be available shortly with some already posted.<br />
<br />
You can access sale and sire profiles as well as Rating reports on the <a href="https://www.pedigreematching.com/standard-reports-racehorse-lineage-services">PM site</a>.<br />
<br />
Harrisburg list should be available shortly in addition to the Canadian Open sale in London, Ontario. Others to follow when available from Lexington, Indiana, and the Ohio Buckeye.<br />
<br />
Pricing for Ratings reports remains the same as last year. Lexington and Harrisburg are $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, New York breds etc. Other sales are $250. Sale profiles are $50 per sale.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-34363180482677740792018-07-03T17:12:00.000-07:002018-07-03T17:12:46.944-07:00Meadowlands Pace 2018<div class="MsoNormal">
Meadowlands Pace</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One of the premier events for three year old pacers has
drawn what coukd be considered one of the weakest fields in its history. There
will be two divisions in elimination to determine the 10 racing from the 15
declared but odds are there are only three with a chance to win.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nine of the 15 sold in the Lexington sale, 3 in Harrisburg,
and 3 are homebreds either kept or sold privately.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The odds-on favourite should be Stay Hungry but he has
serious contenders in Jimmy Freight, Hayden Hanover, Dorsoduro Hanover and
American History who all should make the final after eliminations this
Saturday. Others that could advance are Captain Deo, Courtly Choice, This Is
The Plan, Fashiononthebeach and Nutcracker Sweet.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are six that were on the recommended list of pedigree
matched individuals as yearlings.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
American History 83 –
1.50.1 sold for 150K at Lexington</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Captain Deo 108 – 1.48.4 sold for 90K at Lexington</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dorsoduro Hanover 99
– 1.48.0 sold for 100K at Harrisburg</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hayden Hanover 105
– 1.48.4 sold for 85K at Harrisburg</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Stay Hungry 104 – 1.48.0 sold for 150K at Lexington</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This Is The Plan 71
– 1.51.2 sold for 90K at Harrisburg</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Courtly Choice, a 14<sup>th</sup> foal, has a correct
pedigree but was not on the list due to his birth order which reduced his rating
below 60.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">The three that I could consider winning are <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/cs1966mmtkqgjdg/Stay_Hungry.pdf/file">StayHungry</a>, the class of the race, American History with a recent win in 1.47 and
Jimmy Freight who was not in a sale but has been one of the best lately.</span>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-58077025240381014242018-06-21T07:47:00.003-07:002018-06-21T15:59:55.546-07:00North America Standardbred Yearlings in 2018The number of yearlings registered in North America continues to drop although there are signs that the trend may be bottoming out. The total to date is 7236 and just 36 lower than the 2016 crop. Interestingly the numbers would have been much lower but for an upward tick in trotting yearlings from 3095 in 2016 to 3177 in 2017. Pacing yearlings dropped from 4177 to 4059 as the number of pacing sires at stud with yearlings in 2018 showed a dramatic drop of 57 retirees from the 2017 list. Trotting stallion numbers also dropped with 48 fewer represented in the current crop.<br />
<br />
New sires of consequence this year are minimal with the most prominent ones being Artspeak and Hes Watching on the pacing side and trotting yearlings by Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealin who are likely to be the new trotting sires of interest at the yearling sales.<br />
<br />
Artspeak stood at Hanover Shoe Farms but has moved to Ontario even before his first crop sells. His pedigree is similar to that of Well Said who also has been relocated from Hanover and nows stands in Ohio. Perhaps the relatively poor performance of Well Said, with a below average success rate of around 13% in terms of producing $100K winners, has something to do with the Artspeak move. His first crop totals just 80 foals. In previous blog articles I wrote about Well Said and his prospects after his first crop. The article is entitled Well Bred - Well Dead and predicted his apparent early demise as a popular sire. I also wrote a recent article on sires with Artsplace dams that documents the surprising facts regarding the lack of success in general for such sires. That being said, as I am fond of also saying that every sire can produce something special if given the right opportunity, Well Said did produce a million dollar winner in <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/1s2y4rhac41bgm6/Control_The_Moment.pdf/file">Control The Moment</a>, now at stud in Ontario, plus another half dozen that made over $500K. His lack of consistency and low number of top stakes winners, however, have doomed him to be a regional sire. Control The Moment is from an Abercrombie line dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper through No Nukes and/or the Albatross line and as such shares the profile of both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play in general. Lost In Time, the second best by Well Said follows that same profile pattern. The other aspect of his profile is success with Cam Fella line dams that are inbred to Adios/Abercrombie (Katie Said) or inbred maternally to Albatross/No Nukes lines (My Hero Ron).<br />
<br />
Hes Watching is by American Ideal and with a maternal combination of Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper lines. The Meadow Skipper line sire in this case is Jennas Beach Boy, a rarity in the dams of current sires as is Real Desire, the Abercrombie line present. There is one other current sire in Heston Blue Chip that is a son of American Ideal and has foals of racing age. His first crop is just qualifying and already has produced one of the fastest qualifying two year olds in Zero Tolerance 2,Q1.53.3m. Heston Blue Chips dam is also a Meadow Skipper/Abercrombie line combination albeit through different sons of these sires. The pedigree of Zero Tolerance shows his dam is a full sister to the great mare Rainbow Blue so perhaps that has as much to do with his early showing. The pedigree is a double return of Adios/Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella lines to the dam of Heston Blue Chip and a very good pedigree match accordingly, however, and something to watch for in the possibilities by Hes Watching. I recommended a breeding to my friends at Saulsbrook Farm for their mare Heroine Hanover who is by Somebeachsomewhere and from the Hall Of Fame mare Httie by Abercrombie. The match is a double/double and similar mares with SBSW and Abercrombie lines would be high on my list at the yearling sales.<br />
<br />
I will look at the prospects for Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealing in my next article.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-49987569924021798322018-05-08T05:18:00.000-07:002018-05-08T05:18:45.849-07:00Americas Horse - The Fastest Way To A Million A two year old Quarter Horse filly called Fly Baby Fly won almost $1.6 million last year and in so doing became the richest racing filly of all racing breeds. She also put an exclamation point on the rising interest and financial opportunities in quarter horse racing where million dollar purses are becoming the norm.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reputed to be the largest horsebreed registry in the World
in terms of members and horses, the American Quarter Horse Association may well
be also the youngest being founded in Texas, USA, in the 1940's</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The origins of the Quarter Horse combine two distinct horse
breeds, the English and North American thoroughbred and the mustangs of the
south-western States that evolved from the horses brought to South and Central
America by the Spanish Conquistadors.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A smallish thoroughbred called Janus (1746) was imported
from England to Virginia in the late 1700's. While small in size he was noted
for his speed over short distances and his offspring were favourites among the
farming community for impromptu racing with their neighbours. As the Wild West
became developed and the numbers of
Thoroughbreds grew both in terms of imports and local breds the settlers took
many of them to the frontiers where they proved themselves as agile and willing
ranch horses and indeed war mounts as a defence against raids by indigenous
tribes mounted on their "mustangs". Inevitably the two breeds came
together and the result was a horse perfectly adapted for local conditions and
the needs of the booming cattle ranching business.</div>
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While they started out as work horses adept for such chores
as herding, roping and cutting it was
also inevitable that their speed over short distances would result in a racing
version especially with the continued importation to the West of more
thoroughbreds with comparable speed.</div>
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The formation of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) predates organized racing and was created by a group of ranchers who
enjoyed match racing and riding their horses for business and pleasure. The
idea came from an article written in 1935 by Robert Denhardt entitled "The Quarter
Horse, Then And Now" about the history and characteristics of the Quarter
Horse.</div>
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In 1940, William Barre Warren was elected as the first
President at an impromptu business meeting following a dinner party in Fort
Worth, Texas, where the guests showed interest in forming a registry for the
Steeldust and Billy horses of the Southwest. <span style="background: white; color: #333333; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">At that time Warren was a director for
the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association. He had hundreds of
friends in the rodeo, match-race and ranch industries and it was at his
suggestion that the registry not be confined to just the local breds by western
bred sires but that horses with up to 50% thoroughbred blood could also be
registered as Quarter Horses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Two of Warren's own stallions were Peter McCue and Traveler.
The former was born in 1895 and was a great-grandson of a legendary Kentucky
bred stallion called Steel Dust (1844), a descendent of the great Diomed, and
who came to the Southwest as a yearling. Traveler was a grandson of Steel Dust.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The American Quarter Horse Racing Association was formed in
1945. </span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">This group mainly was concerned with the operation of racetracks and
their registration efforts were limited to what was needed for identification
for racing purposes. They set the standards for racing, and set up a Register
of Merit system to help with handicapping racing</span><span style="background: white;">. They registered horses that were in
AQHA's stud books, as well as Thoroughbreds</span><span style="background: white;">. Even "Paint"</span><span style="background: white;"> horses,
which at this time had no registry and would not for another two decades, were
registered.</span> Painted Joe<span style="background: white;">, a foundation stallion with the American Paint Horse Association </span><span style="background: white;">(APHA), was registered with the AQRA and
ran against many of the early Quarter Horse racers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">Because of the continued dilution of the original bloodlines
as a result of the 50/50 registration rule there is now an offshoot
organization dedicated to the preservation of the older strains dating back to
the 1800's. There have also been registries of horses of color in addition to
the Paint horses with the Palomino Horse Breeders of America and the American
Buckskin Registry Association being cross registered with the racing and ranch
Quarter Horses. Both the Paint and Palomino breeds have a racehorse component
also.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">The largest group of owners, however, are still those involved in
rodeos, horse shows and pleasure riding.
</span><span style="background: white;">Today,
people show</span><span style="background: white;"> American Quarter
Horses in a variety of competitive events, including, but not limited to, halter</span><span style="background: white;"> classes; western</span><span style="background: white;"> style events such as Western Pleasure</span><span style="background: white;">, Reining</span><span style="background: white;">, and Cutting</span><span style="background: white;">; English riding </span><span style="background: white;">events in the hunt seat </span><span style="background: white;">style, such as Hunter Under Saddle</span><span style="background: white;">, Working Hunter</span><span style="background: white;">, and Hunter Hack</span><span style="background: white;">. Driving </span><span style="background: white;">classes are available at some shows, as are some
timed games such as barrel racing</span><span style="background: white;">. There are also equitation </span><span style="background: white;">and halter showmanship</span><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;"> classes for non-pro exhibitors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The
Racing Quarter Horse.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The
earliest mares were primarily ranch mares, many without known pedigrees and
with names like Peg, Betty etc. or simply named after the Ranch with a number
attached such as Waggoner Mare 56. As the breed has evolved there have been
thoroughbred mares bred to Quarter Horse stallions that now are responsible for many of the top racers of today. On the Sire side the bloodlines are dominated
by stallions tracing to the thoroughbred stallions Three Bars (1940) and Top
Deck (1945), both descendants of the Darley Arabian through the imported
English sire Camel (1822). Three Bars had several sons that continue to impact
the paternal lines of todays best especially through Rocket Bar and his descendant
First Down Dash (1984) who is still at stud although long past his peak in
producing top performers. Top Deck is the sire line of the current top Quarter Horse stallion
in North America named One Famous Eagle.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">As
in the thoroughbred world the other top influences in sires descend from Nearco
and Native Dancer, known more commonly as the Northern Dancer and the Mr
Prospector lines in thoroughbred circles although it is through Beduino and
Raise A Native respectively that these lines have come to prominence in Quarter
Horse racing particularly through their broodmares.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">One
Famous Eagle combines all of the top sire lines in his pedigree and has
produced One Dashing Eagle, a winner of over $2 million, from a mare that also combines all of the same sires and traces back maternally to a descendant of
Peter McCue, one of the original Texas bred sires owned by William Warren, the
first President of the AQHA. One Famous Eagle has also produced the top two
year old in North America in 2017 by the name of Fly Baby Fly who has the
distinction of being the richest two year old race horse of any breed in North
America last year. Her maternal line goes back to a ranch mare called Mollie
born in 1930 and a grand daughter of Peter McCue. As for Janus, the little
speedster who started it all, there appears to be no trace of him in todays
pedigrees that I can find.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-size: 12pt;">Bet you did not know
that Roy Rogers horse Trigger was actually a Palomino quarter horse called
Golden Cloud. His wife Dale Evans rode a buckskin quarter horse called
Buttermilk. Another famous quarter horse in the movies was Mister Ed, the
talking horse, played by a quarter horse called Bamboo Harvester and had a
stunt double, also a quarter horse, by name of Pumpkin who subsequently
appeared in the TV series Green Acres.</span>pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-40444612557469318632018-05-07T08:12:00.002-07:002018-05-07T08:12:50.697-07:00Top Two Year Old Performance Horse Of The YearThere are several breeds of horses that earn money through racing including Standardbreds, Thoroughbreds, Quarter Horses and Arabians. Which breed had the highest earning two year old in 2017 and what do the top two year olds of 2017 have in common in their pedigrees ? The answers may surprise you.<br />
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Fly Baby Fly is a Quarter Horse filly who made $1,585,000 last year. The next best was also a filly but a Thoroughbred one called Caledonia Road who made $1,229,000 with most of her money in one of her three starts as winner of a Breeders Cup race. Good Magic was the top Thoroughbred colt last year with $1,216,000 again due primarily to his Breeders Cup win. The Standardbred fillies, Youaremycandygirl ($943K) a pacer, and the trotter Manchego ($910K), were both Breeders Crown winners. Eagle Jazz, a Quarter Horse gelding comes next with $900K then the Standardbred colts Lost In Time (687K) on the pace and trotter Fiftydallarbill $458K.<br />
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The pedigrees of these big winners are remarkably consistent with respect to the pattern of success for most performance horses - Outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally as we promote through Pedigree Matching and in fact six of the eight are double/double pedigrees with the other two very close. In addition there is another pattern that appears significant in that seven of the eight are by sires whose sire line is maternally inbred in the dams. Here are the important aspects of their pedigrees.<br />
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Fly Baby Fly - She is by the current top sire in the racing Quarter Horse world called One Famous Eagle and with a classic pedigree match. The sire has Beduino maternally (a Nearco TB line) and Dash For Cash ( Three Bars line most common in QH breeding and also a TB line). The dam Higher Fire is by Walk Thru Fire by a son of Dash For Cash with a dam by Beduino. The third dam is also by Dash For Cash. The second dam is another thoroughbred line through Raise A Native. If you read my previous blog on the Kentucky Derby you will remember the significance of having both Raise A Native and Nearco maternal lines in top pedigrees. Both the sire and the dam have both in this pedigree so that combination is not unique to thoroughbreds. This is also a double/double pedigree in that the sire of One Famous Eagle has a dam linebred to the Three Bars line making One Famous Eagle double inbred maternally to that line.<br />
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Caledonia Road - Her sire Quality Road is a great grandson of Mr Prospector (Raise A Native) and is inbred maternally to the Nearco line and specifically to Northern Dancer. Quality Road's second dam is by a son of Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector. Her dam, Come A Callin, is a Northern Dancer line by Dixie Union and the second and third dams are also Northern Dancer - Nearco line.. She is also inbred maternally to Native Dancer. As we saw in the Kentucky Derby winner Justify this maternal crossing of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector is a powerful combination.<br />
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Good Magic - Like Caledonia Road his sire Curlin is through Mr Prospector and Curlin's dam is also a Northern Dancer line. The dam of Good Magic is by a grandson of Northern Dancer and the third dam is by a son of Northern Dancer and the dam is also inbred to Raise A Native. Same magical combination.<br />
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Eagle Jazz is by One Dashing Eagle, the top son of his famous sire, One Famous Eagle, and with a pedigree that brings back memories of my own close experience with Quarter Horse pedigrees. You can read about my son Charles' first purchase of a QH called One Famous Glass, with an almost identical pedigree to One Dashing Eagle, both selling in the same year in the Oklahoma sale. One Dashing Eagle earned over $2 millon racing in California and Charles had to be content with winning the Quarter Horse of The Year Award in Canada as a three year old and making just over $200K. As was the case in Fly Baby Fly the key ingredients are Beduino and Dash For Cash across the pedigree maternally and also we find a third dam through Raise A Native.<br />
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The standardbred trotter Manchego was written about in my previous blog article on her owner John Fielding. She has a double/double pedigree as does her colt counterpart Fiftydallarbill. That colt is by Swan For All, sire of World Champion Hannelore Hanover. He too is a double/double since the dam Cr Dixie Chick returns all four of her principal lines to the maternal lines of Swan For All and his sire Andover Hall.<br />
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The top Standardbred pacing filly Youaremycandygirl is yet another double/double. Her sire American Ideal is Matts Scooter - Albatross maternally and both of these lines are in the dam Sweet Lady Jane. American Ideal's sire is Western Ideal who is Abercombie (Adios line) - Meadow Skipper maternally and we find both lines also in Sweet Baby Jane.<br />
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Lost in Time is from the first crop of A Rocknroll Dance, a No Nukes line sire with a dam that is linebred to Meadow Skipper through his sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. His dam, Summer Mystery is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella and he has a third dam through a son of Albatross. There is also an Abercrombie return to the maternal lines of the sire of A Rocknroll Dance.<br />
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These are examples of three different racing breeds whose champions all have pedigrees that follow Pedigree Matching principles.<br />
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I dont want to leave out the Arabians, who do not race at two, but one of the top Arabs last year was aptly named Quick And Rich. He is by TH Richie, a sire whose dam combines the Morafic and Nazeer sire lines. The dam of Quick And Rich is a Morafic line sire as is the third dam, and the second dam is through Nazeer. Just another great pedigree match.<br />
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<br />pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-73516006797204799002018-05-04T11:45:00.000-07:002018-05-04T11:54:51.862-07:00Kentucky Derby 2018Twenty One of the best three year olds in North America will contest the 2018 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 5th, at Churchill Downs. It is said to be the strongest Derby field in recent history and the early favorite is an unbeaten colt called Justify that, however, did not race at two which is a historical problem since it is well over 100 years since such a lightly raced horse has won the Derby.<br />
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The pedigrees are what are of most interest to me regardless of their performance to date. In recent years there has been a distinct trend among the participants of winners showing maternal crosses of Northern Dancer and/or Mr Prospector and Justify is one that continues that pattern.<br />
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Justify is by Scat Daddy whose dam is by Mr Prospector and second dam by Nijinsky, a son of Northern Dancer. Justify's dam, Stage Magic is by Ghostzapper , a Northern Dancer line sire and the third dam is by Baldski, a son of Nijinski. She is also inbred maternally Mr Prospector.<br />
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Here is the list in starting order with their pedigrees and a notation of the significant maternal crosses.<br />
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1. Firenze Fire - A double/double pedigree with multiple maternal lines through Nearco and with a dam that combines Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector lines.<br />
2. Free Drop Billy - Double maternal inbred to both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector and has a double/double pedigree since his grandsire Dixie Union has the same lines maternally.<br />
3. Promises Fulfilled - Maternal double to Mr Prospector who is the sire line of Shackleford's dam as well as the sire line of the dam of Promises Fulfilled whose sire Marquetry is also a combination of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.<br />
4. Flameaway - The lone Canadian foaled entry in the field is inbred maternally 3x3 to Mr Prospector and to Nijinsky 4x5. His sire Scat Daddy is also inbred maternally to Mr Prospector while his dam, Vulcan Rose, is inbred maternally to Northern Dancer.<br />
5. Audible - The only New York bred is an outlier to the pattern with no significant crosses to either Mr P or ND. There is an inbreeding to the Nearco line as well as to Raise A Native, sire of Mr P.<br />
6. Good Magic - The top two year old last year is double inbred maternally to Northern Dancer and from a dam that is maternally inbred to Raise A Native and linebred to the Northern Dancer line.<br />
7. Justify - As noted above<br />
8. Lone Sailor - Double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P and has a double/double pedigree with several Nearco lines. He is a longshot listed as 50/1 but his pedigree may make him a surprise.<br />
9. Hofburg - Also double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P.<br />
10. My Boy Jack - Out of a mare that is inbred 3x3 maternally to Mr P.<br />
11. Bolt D'Oro - Fastest two year old on Beyer last year and has no significant Mr P or Northern Dancer connections<br />
12. Enticed - Has a dam that is inbred to Mr Prospector and a second dam linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P but no maternal crosses of these sires to his sire Medaglia Doro.<br />
13. Bravazo - He is by Awesome Again who combines Nearco and Mr P lines maternally and there is a line through ND in the dam but nothing stands out.<br />
14. Mendelssohn - Inbred to ND and the dam is also inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. No maternal sign of Mr P though.<br />
15. Instilled Regard - Double inbred to Northern Dancer and to Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector.<br />
16. Magnum Moon - Inbred to Mr Prospector maternally and from a dam linbred to Mr P. Inbred maternally to Northern Dancer as well although well back in the pedigree.<br />
17. Solomini - Inbred to ND maternally 5x4 and double inbred to the Nearco line. No Mr P.<br />
18. Vino Rosso - Inbred maternally to Deputy Minister, grandson of ND and from a mare by Mr Prospector making him a linebred 3x4 to that sire. In fact the sire and the dam are both combinations of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines - a bit unusual but it is working so far for this colt.<br />
19. Noble Indy - His sire is a combination of ND and Mr P lines and the dam is linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P. Could be some fireworks from this horse in more ways than one.<br />
20. Combatant - The fourth entry by Scat Daddy and with a similar pedigree to the others being double inbred to both ND and Mr P. An added bonus is the maternal link to Damascus in the maternal line of Johannesburg, sire of Scat Daddy , which makes this pedigree a double double.<br />
21. Blended Citizen - The dam has both ND and Mr P but nothing across the pedigree of interest.<br />
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So there you have it. Since there appears to be no clear favorite, given that the two with the lowest morning line odds are both afflicted with the two year old curse this may be a longshot Derby, especially since the ones with double/double pedigree patterns are among the least favored to date. Looks like a win by a son of Scat Daddy to me. Perhaps I will bet on his Canadian son Flameaway.pedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6675010558052163107.post-15276376517431629562018-03-07T16:54:00.000-08:002018-03-07T16:57:12.042-08:00Similar Sires - Similar ProfilesOne of the most important things you can do when choosing a sire is to create the profile of what works with respect to the mares that produce their top performers. An article on Standardbred Canada caught my eye because it dealt with a three year old colt by Pet Rock who has won his first three starts. The profile for his sire is predictable based on the profile of <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/g5oidbsc20wrq7x/Rock_n_roll_heaven_Profile.pdf">Rock N Roll Heaven</a>, a sire with an almost identical pedigree.<br />
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Both sires have maternal lines of Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella). Mares with these sire lines are prime candidates for these sires but for some reason Rock N Roll Heaven seems to also favor mares with Big Towner maternally. Seven of his top 10 show this connection. That would indicate to me that Pet Rock would show likewise and although his offspring are just three year olds to date it appears to be a key for his success. I was interested in finding out if Larrys Petrock, the subject of the article, fit this profile - his third dam is in fact by Big Towner. The profile for <a href="http://www.mediafire.com/file/26qta3nd7dx6tns/Pet_Rock_Profile.pdf">Pet Rock</a> shows 5 of his top 10 with this connection.<br />
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While not all of the offspring of these two similar sires have Big Towner maternally that feature is something that cannot be ignored if not entirely explainable. Most of the others show combinations of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella as expected.<br />
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Picking a sire is not that difficult, just do your homework with respect to the profiles of the sires in which you are interestedpedmathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12202255844817972977noreply@blogger.com0