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Sunday, December 30, 2018

Pacing Stallions for 2019


Lazarus and All Bets Off

Considering that Bettors Delight is arguably the best pacing stallion in the world today it is surprising that he does not have many sons at stud. But then again his sire Cams Card Shark is in the same boat. Bettors Delight and his full brother Roll With Joe, along with Four Starzzz Shark are the only "major" sires that Cams Card Shark has produced. 


The current list of sires by Bettors Delight shows 9 in North America but only four of them have foals racing. Perhaps the most prominent of those is I'm Gorgeous whose limited production includes the exceptional colt Lather Up whose dam is by In The Pocket by Direct Scooter, the same sire line as the dam of Lazarus. That does not really prove much other than the Bettors Delight line and Direct Scooter lines are compatible under certain circumstances and perhaps mares by other Direct Scooter line sires such as Somebeachsomewhere will be important to the success of Bettors Delight sons at stud especially Lazarus.

What adds a bit of credibility to that connection is the success of the best filly so far from a Somebeachsomewhere mare, Youaremycandygirl. She is by American Ideal, a Western Hanover line, but it is the maternal side of that sire that is important since it is a combination of Direct Scooter and Albatross lines just like those of Lazarus. The closest sire overall to the pedigree of Lazarus is the Cam Fella son Village Jiffy whose maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Nero, like Albatross a son of Meadow Skipper.

An interesting feature of all of the current sires by Bettors Delight is the Albatross maternal connection, something that is a key part of the success of Bettors Delight generally. In fact almost all have 4x4 maternal crosses to Albatross or his sire Meadow Skipper. That link to Albatross is very noticeable in their best offspring. Kenneth J's eight that earned over $100K include seven with that connection. Betterthancheddar shows 6/6 for his $100K winners. Im Gorgeous is 5/6. 

All Bets Off and Lazarus have the same 4x4 Albatross cross maternally so there is a high degree of probability that their success as sires will depend upon finding mares that continue the trend. Village Jiffy whose pedigree is closest to Lazarus Village has 19 of his top 20 with a maternal cross of  Meadow Skipper through a son or an Albatross line sire. Given that Albatross is fast disappearing in the first three dams of todays broodmares this may create a problem. There is, however, another option.

The Adios line, particularly through Abercrombie, is also an important part of the profile of Bettors Delight since his own dam is by a son of Abercrombie. His profile shows 18 of his top 20 with an Adios line in the dams with the exceptions having Big Towner. His sons appear to be doing the same thing.



When you win over $3 million that should give you credibility as a potential sire - right ?

It is, however, unusual to see a modern day stallion enter the stud as an eight year old and I am not aware of any valid comparisons to prove whether this is a scenario for possible success. I am, however, fairly convinced that stallion success is largely based on the maternal connections that occur in the middle of the pedigree, the 3rd and 4th generation crosses of the offspring in particular. All Bets Off is from a mare by Dexter Nukes, a son of No Nukes, and has a second dam by the trotting bred Horton Hanover (Volomite line).

Camystic and  Driven To Win, are the only sires with Dexter Nukes dams that have offspring racing and they may offer a clue to the possibilities although their second dams are through Adios line. Malicious is Western Hanover with a Adios line second dam also. The Adios line, in fact, is the dominant factor in their best. The three good ones by Driven To Win have Abercrombie maternally and all three have the Meadow Skipper/Albatross connection we see generally for Bettors Delight line stallions. Camystic has 14 of his top 20 from Abercrombie line mares, 18 of 20 with Abercrombie in the pedigree and 19 of 20 with the Albatross connection, the sole connection being the highly inbred Jackson K Down whose dam was by Dexter Nukes.

Mysticism in Florida is Western Hanover - Harold J (Volomite line) maternally, the only active sire similar maternally to All Bets Off,  and his only two good ones have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines in their dams. 

It looks like the same profile keys for both Lazarus and All Bets Off.

Predicted Profile

Mares that are line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line including one dam by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire plus an adios/Abercrombie line maternally.

Example Pedigrees


Saturday, December 29, 2018

New Stallions for 2019 - Tactical Landing

Tactical Landing

With the addition of Tactical Landing to the stallion ranks there are now 13 sons of Muscle Hill standing in North America - I hope that is not a bad omen. As a race horse he did not have much luck until late in his three year old season when he convincingly won back to back major stakes in the Breeders Crown and the TVG to just get past his $800,000 purchase price. That was not enough to get him any year-end honours but enough to justify giving him a chance as a stallion. He is, after all, a full brother to a $1.66 million winner in the filly Mission Brief.

His pedigree is unusual being from a mare by Italian bred Varenne whose own stallion career has been somewhat of a disappointment and whose broodmares are pretty much a disaster generally at 3.9% success rate in producing $100K winners. Four out his top six credits, however, are from the dam of Tactical Landing so she had to have something special. She was a Breeders Crown winner at three and an X-factor double to both Speedy Crown and Stars Pride. She was also an example of the TB pattern being by a Speedy Crown line sire and from a dam that is inbred maternally to the same sire line.

Tactical Landing has a double/double pedigree and like many of the best by Muscle Hill has maternal connections to Speedy Crown, Noble Victory and Stars Pride across his pedigree. His principal sire lines maternally are through Varenne (Speedy Somolli line) and Pine Chip (Arnie Almahurst line). As a Valley Victory line sire that puts him in the same category as Glidemaster whose dam was by Mr Lavec (Speedy Somolli) - Florida Pro (Arnie Almahurst). That may not be very auspicious considering the stud career of Glidemaster but it should give us a good model to follow.

Glidemaster's best offspring was the exceptional mare Maven, a double millionaire and a double/double pedigree as well. Her dam, M Stewart, was by American Winner, whose dam was by Speedy Somolli, and her second dam was by Arnie Almahurst, third dam by a son of Stars Pride - all of the lines in Tactical Landing worth connecting too.

Fourteen of Glidemaster's best were from non-Speedster line dams and four of the exceptions had an Arnie Almahurst line maternally. Fifteen of his best, including the top four, were inbred maternally to Speedster mostly on the TB pattern. In that respect Maven was both DD and TB.

Expected Profile

Non Speedy Crown line dams that are inbred maternally to Speedster line and have Arnie Almahurst and/or Stars Pride lines maternally.


Example Breedings - M Stewart, Mamora Bay

Thursday, December 27, 2018

New Stallions for 2019 - Trotters

International Moni

His sire is the French champion Love You, a sire that has more offspring than any stallion currently standing worldwide. His dam is the richest trotter of all time. With credentials like that International Moni looks like a sure thing. There are , however, very few sure things in the uncertain world of stallion success. Consider the following.

This is the best foal of 10 by Moni Maker and the first one by Love You. While 8 of these foals raced just two made over $100K. There is just one of the 29 foals from Moni Maker's daughters that is a $100K winner.

The statistics for Love You are well below what we might consider as successful in North America with less than a 10% success rate over all for his racing offspring and 6.5% for his fillies that raced to date. His broodmare credits show a 5% success rate.

Based on those statistics, if this was a North American sire, I would suspect that breeders would be less than enthusiastic of his chances of success. So how have the other sons of Love You fared out ?

International Moni is #11 on Love You's top performers and all four of the stallions above him stood at stud in France. The best of the four is Quaker Jet at 5.6% and his last crop was 2016. Royal Dream is 2.9%, Village Mystic is 2.6%, and Booster Winner is 0/67 in his first crop of three year olds. The Swedish bred Nu Pagadi has a dam by a son of Speedy Crown but he is 0/60 and no longer standing while Rocklyn in France also has a Speedy Crown line dam and is the best siring son of Love You  at 6.4% winners of over $100K.

International Moni is the first new stallion in several years to have a dam by Speedy Crown with the last significant ones being the sons of Valley Victory, namely Muscles Yankee, Donerail, Victory Dream, Lindy Lane, and Yankee Glide. Only the last one, Yankee Glide, continues to produce occasional top horses and indeed is the one whose dam most closely resembles Moni Maker in terms of pedigree being by Speedy Crown and with a Stars Pride line second dam. Yankee Glide's best three year old is from a mare by Windsongs Legacy that has second and third dams that are Stars Pride and Speedy Crown line respectively. In fact that is typical of Yankee Glides best since 16 of his top 20 are from non Speedy Crown line dams. 17 of the top 20 have a maternal line dam by Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown and 18 of 20 have a Stars Pride line present.

Predicted Profile

Stars Pride line or Noble Victory line dams with a second or third dam by Speedy Crown, a son or a Speedy Somolli line. Preference to mares that also have Stars Pride and/or Noble Victory lines maternally. Speedy Crown line broodmares only when broodmare sire as a Stars Pride line dam.

Example - Yursa Hanover, Bee A Magician

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Breeders Cup 2018

The 2018 Breeders Crown for Standardbreds is over and as expected eight of the twelve winners had double/double or DD pedigrees. The four others had something in common too - a pedigree pattern that shows up in many of the top thoroughbreds. For lack of a better acronym lets call it TB as opposed to DD. It turns out that the TB pattern has been hiding in plain sight all along in top Standardbreds, especially trotters, and a look at the top 20 North American bred trotters shows the richest one, Moni Maker, to be a perfect example. She is by Speedy Crown, a son of Speedy Scot and from a mare that is inbred to Speedy Scot and that is the TB pattern. Speedy Crown, by the way, is a DD and so is the dam of Moni Maker - SURPRISE. The top 20 have 6 that are TB, 12 that are DD and 2 that are of mixed French and North American bloodlines.

A look at the top two and three year old thoroughbreds in North America shows 7 of the top 10 to date in each age group with TB or DD patterns. The two year olds are led by Bellafina who is both TB and DD and is the favorite in Fridays $2 million Juvenile Filly race at 1 1/16th. She has won three straight including two G1 races and a G2. There are two other fillies that are double patterned in the same race with Splashy Kisses and Baby Nina both long shots. The Juvenile Turf has one such in Maries Diamond, a stakes winner from Ireland. Tight Ten in the Juvenile Colt is another longshot chance with both patterns.

The two year old races have 31 TB pattern entrants and 10 with DD including the five noted above. In the races for three year olds and older on Saturday there are 47 TB, 13 DD and 5 that are both including Santa Monica in the Mares Turf, Next Shares in the BC Mile, Robert Bruce in the BC Turf, and Lone Sailor and Axelrod in the BC Classic going for $6 million. The favourite in the Classic is Accelerate, a DD pedigree and winner of three straight G1 races, but my personal sentimental favourite is another DD called Catholic Boy, one of the first ones I noticed last year in the Breeders Cup and co-bred by successful Standardbred owner John Fielding. You can read more about this horse in my previous blog entry on John Fielding.

Pedigree patterns like DD and TB are not guaranteed to give you a classic winner but the fact that so many of the best show these patterns certainly makes it worth while considering as a positive factor in buying and breeding race horses.

There is one yearling in the Harrisburg Standardbred yearling sale that is both DD and TB. What is it worth to you to know which one it is ?

Here are my picks for the winners from the DD and TB entrants

Saturday
Filly and Mare Sprint - Golden Mischief TB
Turf Sprint - Disco Partner TB or Stormy Liberal DD
Dirt Mile - City Of Light DD or Catalina Cruiser DD
Filly and Mare Turf - Magic Wand TB, longshot Santa Monica TB/DD
BC Sprint - Roy H TB
BC Mile - Next Shares TB/DD
BC Distaff - Blue Prize TB
BC Turf - Enable TB
BC Classic - Catholic Boy DD or Accelerate DD

Sunday
Juvenile Turf Sprint - Soldiers Call TB or Sergei Profokiev DD
Juvenile Filly Turf - Concrete Rose DD
Juvenile Filly - Bellafina TB/DD
Juvenile Turf - Maries Diamond TB/DD
BC Juvenile - Code Of Honor TB, longshot Tight Ten TB/DD




Saturday, October 20, 2018

Breeders Crown and the Double Double

It is becoming increasingly clear that if you want a world record holder or a Breeders Crown contender your chances are greatly increased if you have the Double/Double pattern in the pedigree of the yearlings you buy, particularily with trotters.

In Lexington several world records were set with Homicide Hunter, Six Pack, Plunge Blue Chip and Iceattraction all having double/double pedigrees.

In the eliminations of the Breeders Crown at Pocono five of the ten winners were double/double and a couple of others were very close to the pattern. They included pacer Tall Drink Hanover and trotters Champagne Jane, Woodside Charm, Smart As Hill and the undefeated Gimpanzee, who is yet another top trotter produced by my client Order By Stable from his small but select broodmare band in New Jersey.

Stefan Balaszi of Order By Stable asked me several years ago to review his mares, which numbered close to 20 at the time, since he had to that point been unsuccessful in producing anything really special. After selling several mares and buying a couple of replacements, and with my assistance with breeding suggestions the Order By Stable yearlings are now in high demand and for good reason. He now has the top three year old in Atlanta, a Hambletonian winner, and the top two year old filly in Gimpanzee, unbeaten in eight starts. Another Order By table bred BC contender named Kings County has qualified for the two year old colt final.

In Harrisburg this year there are just 35 yearlings of the 876 yearlings in Book 1 with the ultimate pattern of success, 17 pacers and 18 trotters. Compare that percentage with the 50% of recent world records and Breeders Crown elimination winners and you can see what I mean by your chances being greatly increased. I expect the three year old elimination winners will continue that trend.

Double/double pedigrees are not hard to spot in a three generation pedigree if you can recognize the sire lines. Read my previous blogs on the Double/Double for assistance.

Harrisburg is your last chance this year to buy a potential champion.  Ratings for Harrisburg are available by contacting me directly at norman@pedigreematching.com including the list of DD
special yearlings.

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Double - Double Yearlings

Add Tall Drink Hanover, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.

There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.


Saturday, September 1, 2018

Lexington Yearlings and The Double-Double

More yearlings than usual will be for sale at the Lexington, Kentucky sale this year scheduled for October with 720 being an increase of 160 over the 2017 sale. Lexington will also add a mixed sale after the yearling sale as the demand for racehorses and quality broodmares has greatly increased with consequent higher prices resulting from the sharp decrease in the overall horse population over the past few years.

Harrisburg sale shows a drop from last year in terms of yearlings in Book 1 although there may be some added to their mixed sale as was the case last year when they reduced their yearling sessions to three from four.

Lexington will give buyers their first look at sires like Sebastian K and Artspeak, the two most prominent first crop offerings. Father Patrick and Captaintreacherous will be back with the biggest consignments although neither has exactly overwhelmed the opposition in their first crop to the races this year.

Sebastian K is a world record holder by Korean, a French bred sire, and with a maternal line that may be hard to connect with. His dam is by Probe, a son of Super Bowl, second dam by The Prophet, a grandson of the Axworthy sire Florican. There is a Speedy Crown line as the dam of Probe but nowhere else in the pedigree. Based on similar sires I would expect him to do well with mares that are linebred or inbred to Speedy Crown and that also have Super Bowl maternally and there are, surprisingly, not that many in this group of 19 yearlings. Just four fit my expected profile and the pedigrees are modest with ratings in the 70's.

Artspeak has a maternal line of Artsplace - Matts Scooter, the same as Well Said. I'm not sure if that is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view, but Well Said and Artspeak have both been relocated from Hanover Farms to Ohio and Ontario respectively. There are just 9 Artspeak yearlings in Lexington in contrast to the 41 in Harrisburg but there is one that is a double-double pedigree - see if you can find him.

Speaking of double-double pedigrees the latest one to surface is Swandre The Giant, undefeated in 7 starts in his rookie season. By Swan For All and from a dam line bred to Speedy Somolli, as is the dam of Swan For All, and complimented by lines through Arnie Almahurst and Super Bowl, the maternal lines of Andover Hall, sire of Swan For All, the pedigree is virtually the same as for World Champion Hannelore Hanover. History does repeat itself especially with pedigrees. That is why it is important to recognize and use Sire profiles in selecting breedings or yearlings.

Swandre The Giant sold with a rating of 71 - 1.54.1 for $17,000 at last year's Hoosier Classic and was bought by Anthony MacDonald of PEI for his fractional ownership enterprise The Stable. He was subsequently sold shortly after the sale to the current owners who just might have recognized the chance for greatness that the pedigree of Swandre The Giant showed. He now moves to the barn of Jimmy Takter after selling for an undisclosed price of seven figures. The next great sire ?

As our slogan goes Percentages - Patterns - Profiles, Know them, Recognize them, breed or own a Champion.