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Saturday, August 25, 2012

Forest City Trotting Yearlings

The profiles for the Forest City trotting yearlings are attached. Established sires like Angus Hall and Kadabra are well represented as usual and new sires of interest including Federal Flex and Windsong Espoir. There is a much smaller presence of Muscle Mass yearlings probably based on his first crop which has been less than spectacular considering some of the prices paid last year. Surprisingly there are only two by Majestic Son, a sire that is doing rather better than I expected.

To use a baseball analogy - If you want to catch a home run ball, you first need to get in the ballpark, then the right section depending on whether the potential home run hitter is a left or right pull hitter, and then be lucky enough to be in the right seat.

Using the sire profiles is a big step to getting you that prime spot. Some of you have been asking for clarification on how to use the profiles. Lets look at two sires, one established, Angus Hall, and one new, Federal Flex.

Angus Hall has been around long enough to have established quite clearly what his home run horses look like on the pedigree page. His overall profile calls for the following types of mares that will produce yearlings capable of being in his top performers.

His top 16 performers fit the following criteria. The number in brackets gives the number or top performers in the top 16 that fit that particular part of the profile.

!. Speedy Crown line dams with Super Bowl, a son of Super Bowl, or Bonefish line second or third dam or a broodmare sire with a dam by Bonefish (8)

2. Super Bowl or Noble Victory line dams with a Speedy Crown line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a Speedy Crown line dam (6)

3. Dams with no Speedy Crown maternally and with Super Bowl line 2nd dam (1)

4. Arndon line dam with Super Bowl line 2nd dam (1)

You will find these criteria will carry on down through almost all of his $100K earners but what about his home runs, the millionaires ? The top 5 all have a line through Speedy Crown or a son, and one through Bonefish, in the dam.

The top 9 and 15 of the top 16 all have a line through Speedy Crown or a son,  and one through Bonefish or Super Bowl, in the dam.

I dont see any yearlings in here that could crack the top 5 but there are a few that could make his $100K plus list. I will leave you to figure those ones out.

Federal Flex is a sire I discussed earlier when we looked at Muscle Hill, a sire with similar lines, being by Muscles Yankee from a mare line bred to Stars Pride. I noted then that there were several sires with foals racing that can give us a lead on what to look for initially in the first crop of both Federal Flex and Muscle Hill. Here is what you need to be aware of.

Federal Flex is by Muscles Yankee (Speedy Somolli line) from a dam by Sjs Photo (Hickory Pride line), second dam by Joie de Vie (Super Bowl). Typically such sires, with no Speedy Crown maternally, will do very well with mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown and are by sires that connect to the key individuals on their own maternal lines e.g. Hickory Pride and/or Super Bowl, most likely the latter since Super Bowl is a more dominant factor in pedigrees.

Star Challenge is a Speedy Somolli line sire with a dam by Stars Pride line sire Lindys Crown, second dam by Super Bowl. He has been standing in the States for several years and his best, with over $450K made is from a mare by a son of Super Bowl that is inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top two and 6 of his top 7 are bred this way.

Diesel Don is a full brother to Muscle Hill. He stands in Finland. His best to date is also from a mare by a son of Super Bowl and the dam is inbred maternally to Speedster and the broodmare sire has a Speedy Crown line dam. His top 5 all have the same pattern.

Incredible Abe, who produced millionaire Abbey Road C did things a little different since his top two are from Noble Victory line dams but still mares that were inbred to Speedster or Speedy Crown maternally.

There were some good performers by these three sires that were from Speedy Crown line dams but in almost every case the mares involved were inbred maternally to Stars Pride.

Again I will leave it to you to come up with the yearlings that fit the profile. If you want to compare notes send me your choices and I will fill in any gaps in the selection process. You obviously have to address the content in the pedigrees as well as the structure. You will find that several of the yearlings by Angus Hall and Federal Flex that fit the profiles are, however, a bit short on content with respect to earnings and speed in the family.