Muscle Hill and Federal Flex

As noted in a couple of earlier blog entries these two sires have similar pedigrees and can be expected to relate well to similar mares. I also noted earlier that Muscle Hill has a full brother, Diesel Don, with foals now racing in Sweden, and there are two producing sires in North America that have maternal lines similar to those of Federal Flex, namely Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe.

Muscle Hill is by Muscles Yankee from a dam by American Winner (Super Bowl) with a second dam by Hickory Pride making his dam line bred to Stars Pride. Federal Flex flips the maternal combination over since his dam is by S Js Photo, a Stars Pride line stallion through Hickory Pride, and his second dam is by Joie de Vie by Super Bowl. This is a subtle difference since it affects the profile priority for one sire versus the other even though the overall profile remains the same.

I have attached the profiles for Diesel Don, Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe. Clearly the presence of Super Bowl maternally in the dams of their successful performers stands out. In the case of Diesel Don, however, the Super Bowl line is that of the broodmare sire while the other two sires prefer mares with Super Bowl 2nd and occasionally third dams. This may have something to do with the position of Super Bowl in the sires being in the same corresponding position, i.e. In the first dam of Diesel Don, and in the second dam of Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe,

There are other possible profile factors that could be in play. Typically when a sire has no Speedy Crown maternally we see them succeed with dams that double up that sire either linebred or inbred maternally. Monte Hall by Incredible Abe is an example of this, as is York Kemp by Diesel Don.

Another combination to watch for are mares that combine Speedy Crown and Noble Victory lines maternally. See Xandria Kemp by Diesel Don, as well as several good ones from Garland Lobell mares.

For the first crop, however, the odds are in favour of following the principal profile factor.

Attached also are the profiles of the yearlings by Muscle Hill and Federal Flex.

The yearling pedigrees are now in the Globetrotter database and are also available online at www.pedigreeguru.com .

Attachment: Sire Profile for Amigo Hall.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Diesel Don.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Incredible Abe.pdf
Attachment: Federal Flex Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Muscle Hill Yearling Profiles.pdf

North American Yearlings

I have added the North American yearlings to the database. There are 8.970 registered to date in North America, down from 9,534 last year. In the last five years the number of yearlings has dropped from 11,870 - 24.5%. The pacing yearlings represent 59.7% of the ones registered to date versus 58.6% in 2007.

The number of sires active continues to drop with 68 sires in North America producing 75% of the current crop of yearlings. There are over 400 sires with yearling foals in 2012 but many of them have less than 5 foals.

The breeding industry is in freefall. The concentration of breedings into a select number of sires is a disaster in the making. While there are many sires in the industry that have something to offer, the breeders are increasingly leaning to the "flavour of the day" approach. Choosing a sire based on popularity rather than what is best for the mare is a scenario that guarantees failure.

The updated database now available includes the currently registered yearlings. There are a fair number of them unnamed which is, to me, unacceptable considering that the breeders have had over a year to pick a name.

The current crop of yearlings is probably one of the most interesting in recent years. On the pacing side we have Art Official, Artistic Fella, Artzina, Classic Card Shark, Driven To Win, Hot Rod Mindale, If I Can Dream, Major In Art, Mister Big, Palone Ranger, Quality Western, Shadow Play, Total Truth and Well Said, among others. The first crop trotting stallions include Explosive Matter, Federal Flex, Groton Hall, Lear Jetta, Muscle Hill, Swan For All, The Pres, and Windsong Espoir.

Over the next few weeks I will look at all of their offspring and offer some thoughts on which ones to look for in the 2012 yearling sales.

 

 

Updates

An update to the database is now available. It contains additions and updates for performance for European and Australia/New Zealand. Almost 300,000 horses have been added and the database is now approaching 1.8 million horses. The next update will feature the North American yearlings of 2012 , foals of 2011, and will be available in mid July.

Updating foreign horses is a challenge to say the least. I have gathered the data from twelve different websites. The data is freely available, unlike the situation in North America where you have to pay for it. Australia has just changed their policy of charging for access and now makes all reports available for free. They have realized that the data is important for breeders to make correct decisions on breeding and also recognize that the old system was not serving the small breeders that make up the greatest percentage of their membership.

I have long been an advocate of free access to pedigree information. After all the breeders pay dearly to create this information in the first place - why should they be charged for using it?

Every breed registry for Standardbreds has a website where they offer information in various formats. One of the best is the aforesaid Australian site. One of the most artistic is the Italian site ANACT and the French have several sites where you can access their pedigrees as well as complete reference material on active sires. In that respect both USTA and Standardbred Canada are sadly lacking. The stallion information is incomplete and many times outdated. It should be a priority for a breed registry to at least get this right.

The European Union has been debating for years how to combine their data into one resource but so far no results. As far as I know the PedigreeGuru website that we operate is the only internet site where you can view pedigrees for any standardbred horse in the world. Surely the various breed registries with all of their resources could replicate what we are able to do basically on a shoestring.

 

 

So You Want To Buy a Muscle Hill Yearling.

The 2012 crop of yearling trotters will be headed up by first crop sire Muscle Hill. It is never too early to start looking for one of these soon to be sought for individuals. But what do you look for in the pedigrees to help you narrow down the list?

In my blog on January 4th, 2010 on First year sires I noted that Muscle Hill had a full brother, Diesel Don, standing in Sweden that had yearlings on the ground. I also speculated on which ones might be successful based on other similar sires and predicted a profile as follows:

It would appear that the options for Muscle Hill and Federal Flex boil down to the following priorities

1. Noble Victory line dams that have a double to Speedy Crown maternally.

I would classify this as a Scenario #2 match since it returns the principle lines of the dam of Muscles Yankee i.e. Speedy Crown and Noble Victory which brings us back to Muscles Yankee as perhaps being the key to success.

2. Stars Pride line dams with no Speedy Crown line but with a Noble Victory line maternally.

This is a Scenario #1 to the extent that you can find the same individuals, namely American Winner (Super Bowl) and Hickory Pride in mares for Muscle Hill.

I have just completed an update of European performance including the ones by Diesel Don now racing at four year old and there are very few surprises. For the mst part the best ones fall into the second profile group having Stars Pride line dams through Super Bowl but some share elements of both groups. The Noble Victory line does not seem to be a factor. Here are the top five based on earnings. bear in mind that most are racing in Finland where 2 and 3 year old races carry low purses.

Don Factor  50006 Euro  Dam is by a son of Super Bowl and is also inbred to Speedster/Speedy Crown.

Singing Soul 21950 Euro  Stars Pride line dam with no Speedy Crown maternally. Dam is inbred 3x3 to Hickory Smoke, half brother to Hickory Pride, sire of the second dam of Muscle Hill.

Grainfield Danny  16338 Euro Dam by a son of Super Bowl with no Speedy Crown maternally. Dam is also a double to Margaret Parrish

Sahara Flygirl  13628 Euro  Dam by a son of Speedy Somolli and while this makes the filly linebred 5x3 to that sire there is a strong maternal connection to compensate with both Super Bowl and Hickory Pride 4x4 maternally.

Secret Pilot  13253 Euro  Dam by son of Super Bowl,with third dam also through Stars Pride

There are just 78 yearlings by Muscle Hill registered to date and perhaps a few more to come. One colt you should be interested in is Martiniwithmuscle from the Credit Winner mare Cocktail Hour. Owned by my good friend Dr Doug Hutchins he will sell in Harrisburg. Like the best one to date by Diesel Don he has a dam through Super Bowl and is in fact a 3x3 maternal double to American Winner. The dam is also inbred maternally to Speedy Crown, a big plus, is inbred to Margaret Parrish, an even bigger plus, and has a second dam also through Super Bowl. This pedigree covers all of the profile possibilities. Did I mention also that he is a January foal?

 

Attachment: Sahara Flygirl Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Martiniwithmuscle Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Don Factor Pedigree.pdf

Spring

Normally spring in the standardbred world is a time of hopeful expectations. About now the two year olds are showing the promise that was expected in the yearling sales. This year is sadly different. The uncertainty with two year olds has been compounded big time with the political machinations of governments in Ontario and Pennsylvania who seem intent on destroying the standardbred industry in favour of short term revenue gains.

Somebody out there has not been telling the powers that be the real story.

Perhaps it is the nature of our business where horsemen and women  seldom agree on a universal approach to what is good for the industry. This gives the governments of the day all the ammunition they need to arbitrarily change the rules of the game.

First things first. Unity

Everybody in this business has a personal agenda. Forget about it 

The racing industry, standardbred or thorobred, has to constantly prove it has a positive role in society and the common good. Recognize that there are a lot of people out there that could care less. But the  bottom line is that this business, like any other business, provides employment and pays taxes. It is not a sinfull occupation.

If you are serious about this industry then you must do eveything you can to support it. Whether you are in New Jersey, Ontario or PEI the future of standardbred racing depends on you. Let your feelings be known. Politics is all about numbers.

Pedigree Camp 2012

2012 Pedigree Camp The 2012 Pedigree Camp is scheduled for June 22-24th in Charlottetown, PEI, Canada. For the past six years we have welcomed up to thirty attendees each year from all over North America to the event. We have even had overseas interest with visitors from Denmark and Finland. Some of our regulars have been to every camp to date and make it a regular highlight of their season. This year will feature our usual blend of working sessions and recreational activities with the latter including a welcoming lobster dinner and reception, a night at the Red Shores Casino and racetrack in Charlottetown, a Sunday afternoon tour of the Island’s North Shore beaches and gift shops, and our graduation social at Norman’s home in Charlottetown. Details on the Camp Agenda and the registration form are attached. Spouses and partners are welcome to attend the social activities. Registration deadline is May 15th but attendance is limited to the first thirty so don’t leave it too late.

Attachment: Pedigree Camp 2012 Registration.doc

Progress Report on Globetrotter

I have posted an update to Globetrotter which includes the 2011 performance update and stallion listings. This will probably be the last time you need to replace your database since we are moving towards a web based database that you can access either through PedigreeGuru or through your Globetrotter program and ultimately with your i-phone or i-pad..

We have relocated both the PedigreeGuru and PedigreeMatching sites to a new server - much faster and more secure. Over the next few weeks we will be redesigning the sites to make them more compatible and making cosmetic changes to remove redundant info and links.

The new web presence will be known as PM-Online and will combine the two websites as well as offering pedigree databases for both Standardbred and Thorobred pedigrees using Globetrotter and Globerunner respectively. The Globetrotter database will incorporate standardbreds, cold blood trotters and Tennessee Walking Horses while the Globerunner database will feature Thorobreds and Quarterhorse pedigrees.

We are working on the ultimate pedigree matching tool, what we call the EasyMate button. Type in your mare, select where you want to breed and how much you want to pay and EasyMate will give you a ranked list of stallion options. This will be available as an App for mobile users. The App will also feature instant yearling ratings as a basis for your yearling inspections.

Sounds like fun Eh?