First Crop Sires - How are they doing

The major sires with first crops racing this year are as follows:

Trotting Sires

Explosive Matter
Federal Flex
Lear Jetta
Muscle Hill
Swan For All
Windsong Espoir

Pacing Sires

Art Official
Artistic Fella
Dali
If I Can Dream
Major In Art
Mister Big
Shadow Play
Well Said

It is always interesting to see if they really do what is expected of them as far as the type of mares they are successful with. It is early yet but as is usually the case first impressions will prove to be lasting ones. Here are the top performers to date:

Explosive Matter

This sire is loaded with Speedy Crown with a Valley Victory top line and a dam that is line bred to Speedy Crown. Past sires with similar pedigrees have been less than successful due to the concentration of Speedy Crown but so far the best by Explosive Matter,  Struck By Lindy, shows how to get around this problem. I discussed her pedigree in an earlier post. Her second dam has the same Valley Victory - Speedy Crown line combination that is present in the dam of Explosive Matter plus a couple of other plusses across the pedigree.

Federal Flex

In an earlier post I discussed this sire as well as a similar sire in Muscle Hill. Both have dams that are line bred to Stars Pride, an unusual circumstance, but there are three previous sires with foals racing that point the way. The mares to look for are either Super Bowl line inbred to Speedy Crown maternally or Noble Victory Line with second dams through Speedy Crown and with Super Bowl maternally. In this care the best by Federal Flex to date, Special Agent Man, is from a Conway Hall (Noble Victory line) mare with a second dam by a Speedy Crown line dam. The third dam is through Super Bowl.

Lear Jetta

This sire has a maternal line with no Speedy Crown. Similar sires breed best to mares with no Speedy Crown or with mares that are either line bred or inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. Abettajetta, his best to date, follows that first pattern with no Speedy Crown in the dam.

Muscle Hill

While Federal Flex has opted for mares with the Noble Victory - Speedy Crown combination in his sire's maternal lines (Muscles Yankee), Muscle Hill seems to prefer the other side of the profile since three of his top four, including his best Hill I Am, are from mares that are Super Bowl line and inbred to Speedy Crown maternally.

Swan For All

With a maternal line that is linebred to Baltic Speed you can expect his best to be from mares that offer Valley Victory - Speedy Crown combinations or mares that have no Speedy Crown at all. Nothing in between. His best to date is Andis Alana from a Yankee Glide (Valley Victory) mare with a second dam by a son of Speedy Crown.

Windsong Espoir

This son of Kadabra has a maternal line of Balanced Image (Noble Victory line) and Speedy Crown. His best to date is Hope For Justice from a mare by Justice Hall (Noble Victory line) and second dam by a son of Speedy Crown

Art Official

This son of Art Major is a bit of a freak with respect to pedigree, He is quite untypical with respect to the other top ones by Art Major. Such things happen. His maternal lines are Falcon Seelster (Bret Hanover line) and Safe Arrival (Volomite line). Bringing back Meadow Skipper into a maternal line such as his is a safe bet and indeed his best two are from mares that are linebred to Meadow Skipper and also have Bret Hanover maternally.

Artistic Fella

With a maternal line of Artsplace (Abercrombie line) and No Nukes (Most Happy Fella line) you could expect mares with Abercrombie - Most Happy Fella line combinations to be his favourite and so it seems so far as Regil Meg is from a mare by Straight Path (Abercrombie) with a second dam by Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella)

Dali

This son of Real Artist has a maternal line similar to several other sires being Matts Scooter - Tyler B (Most Happy Fella line). His best to date Weatherly with 29K makes no sense to me but his next best with 23K made, Blacktree, is right on target with a Most Happy Fella line dam and and a Direct Scooter second dam.

If I Can Dream

This full brother to Western Terror has produced something that so far has seldom existed, a colt with a 3x2 maternal cross. This is a pedigree pattern that shows up in exceptional fillies but seldom in colts. In the case of Forty Five Red, the maternal double is Artsplace 3x2 and it is supported with an additional return of Most Happy Fella maternally.

Major In Art

His maternal line is similar to that of his sire, Art Major, being a Meadow Skipper line - Big Towner combination. Art Major did well with Cam Fella line dams and also with mares that had Big Towner maternally so it is no real surprise that Major In Art's best to date, Major Hangover, is from a mare by No Pan Intended with a second dam by Big Towner.

Mister Big

With a maternal line of Jate Lobell - Cam Fella there are many mares that fit Mister Big including the dam of Crafty Master, his second best performer from a Camluck mare with a No Nukes second dam. His best, however, is a good example of breeding a sire to a mare that brings back the lines in the sire's sire, in this case those of Grinfromeartoear whose maternal lines are  Storm Damage (Bret Hanover) - Meadow Skipper. Such is the case with Falcon Justice, his best to date, from a Bret Hanover line dam by Falcon Seelster with a second dam by Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper)

Shadow Play

I have already discussed this sire's early confimation of the expected profile based on his similarity to Rocknroll Hanover. His best colt to date is Arthur Blue Chip, with an Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross just like many of the best by Rocknroll Hanover.

Well Said

My previous post highlighted the pedigree of Talkative, the best by Well Said to date and a great example of the high percentage way to produce top performers - outcross on sire line and inbreed maternally.

All in all a great group of well matched individuals. Most of them likely bred with little consideration of the sire lines involved but as you can see they truly reflect what Pedigree Matching is all about.

Well Said - Well Dead ?

In an earlier blog on Well Said yearlings I predicted that Well Said would have a difficult time as a sire based on the lack of success for similar sires. I was prepared to cut him some slack based on his exceptional racing career but it seems that early results of his first crop may be proving me right regardless.

To date he has a eleven winners from a first crop of 102 and the best has made just over $60,000. The top one was very predictable. Talkative is from an Artiscape mare with a second dam by Direct Scooter which is a perfect fit for Well Said's maternal lines of Artsplace and Matts Scooter.

The predicted profile for Well Said was for non Meadow Skipper line mares or mares that are line bred to Meadow Skipper with maternal connections to either Abercrombie or Direct Scooter. So far three of the top four are from Abercrombie line dams and the other is a line bred Meadow Skipper dam with an Abercrombie third dam. Just as predicted.

The other nick that was important was to find an Albatross line maternally and the top two have third dams through Albatross.

It is early yet and I hope to see his results improve but unfortunately, as is often the case, the breeders guessed wrong for the most part and the ones that fit the profile better step up soon or this well bred sire will truly be well dead.

What is my "Philosophy" on Breeding?

My philosophy on breeding standardbreds is simple as published recently in Hevos, the Finland Association news magazine. I do not have opinions on mares or stallions. I evaluate them on the basis of what I know to be true based on established fact.

Unfortunately the breeders of today base most of their decisions on opinions, mostly those of other people, and resulting from anecdotal information at best and from rumour at worst. As a result the success rate in producing top performers is far below what it should be and leads to an enormous waste of our time and resources.

Genetics tells us that if you choose a correct pedigree you have a 25% chance of creating the top individual you seek. The success rate for breeders worldwide is less than 5% in producing horses that will pay for themselves over their racing career. A pedigree is the foundation of the animal and once chosen and fulfilled in terms of a foal, it cannot be changed. The choice of the correct sire is therefore the most important decision a breeder can make and this decision cannot be made correctly without a knowledge of the facts. Guessing and rumour do not replace facts.

One fact that is evident is that a study of the top performers by any sire can produce a profile of the type of mares with which he has success. This sire profile is established in his first racing crop and does not vary. This fact alone is almost totally ignored by breeders who continue to breed mares that do not fit the profile of the sires they choose, with their decisions being based on “flavour of the day”, economic or location factors that doom their decisions from the start.

Based on the statistical evidence it is my recommendation that breeders, whenever possible, should outcross on sire line and line breed maternally for the best chance of success.  This approach is universally successfull as shown by my experience on a recent trip to Sweden for the Elitlop. One only needs to look at the pedigrees of Elitlop winner Nahar and three year old filly winner on the same program Massive Babe to see how this is so.

Elitlopp winner Nahar is outcrossed on sire line, with a sire line through Coktail Jet (Speedy Scot line) and a broodmare sire line through Stars Pride. He is linebred maternally to both Super Bowl and Speedy Crown. His sire, Love You, has a well established profile when bred to North American based pedigrees which shows a preference for mares with principal lines through Speedy Crown and Super Bowl. This is a fact – and breeding mares to him that do not fit this profile is a waste of time and money in addition to spoiling the reputation of the mare and the breeder.

Massive Babe is outcrossed on sire line being by a Valley Victory line sire and from a Noble Victory line dam by Andover Hall. She is linebred maternally to Arnie Almahurst and to Speedy Crown. Muscle Mass, her sire, has maternal lines through Pine Chip (Arnie Almahurst line) and Valley Victory (Speedy Crown line). While his first crop has been modestly successful there are just two of his first crop that were correctly bred for top performance being this filly and another called Muscle Magic who was the only Muscle Mass to compete successfully at the Gold level in Ontario last year. This was a mystery to me given the obvious and plentifull choice of mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall for this sire - yet such breedings were virtually non existent. His best two year old to date this year is Muscle Matters, dam by Conway Hall so he may fare better this year.

Based on the sire profile for a similar sire, Glidemaster, I was able to predict that these two fillies were bred correctly before they raced. Glidemaster, like Muscle Mass, is by a son of Valley Victory and from a dam that combines Arnie Almahurst and Speedy Crown lines. His best by far is the mare called Maven, and like Massive Babe is outcrossed on sire line and linebred maternally to both Arnie Almahurst and Speedy Crown. This fact alone based on the established profile of Glidemaster and other similar sires would have allowed you to choose Massive Babe as a yearling purchase with considerable confidence in her chances for success. Glidemaster has been a disappointing sire to date but dont blame the horse, blame the breeders who missed the opportunity presented to breed some of the many Andover and Conway Hall mares in PA and NY.

In Europe in particular there is a considerable emphasis on reducing the degree of linebreeding as a result of a fixation with low inbreeding co-efficients. Breeders of all types of animals have recognized for centuries that a degree of linebreeding is necessary to fix certain qualities in the breed. One of these qualities is consistency. It is an established fact that low inbreeding coefficients lead to increased randomness in results. There is still the opportunity for an exceptional performer because of the extreme outcross nature of many European breedings but the percentage of failure is much higher. But you can also find, even in French breeding, where close maternal line breeding is rare, such champions as Jag de Bellouet and Offshore Dream that have maternal line breeding similar to North American practice. In fact much of the recent success of French breeding is attributable to J P Dubois who is a strong advocate on maternal linebreeding with such sires as Super Bowl, Speedy Somolli and Florestan doubled in his best horses.

 

I would add one more example of what is shaping up to be an exceptional filly. Her name is Struck By Lindy. She is by first crop sire Explosive Matter and set a PA Sires record of 1.56.4f in her third start. Explosive Matter is line bred to Valley Victory and from a mare that is linebred to Speedy Crown. His sire, Cantab Hall, is out of a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall. The dam of Struck By Lindy is by Angus Hall and the maternal sequence then goes to Valley Victory and Speedy Crown which is the same maternal sequence of sire lines in Explosive Matter. Add to this the sibling cross of Self Possessed on the sire line to that of his sister Dream On Victory on the maternal line and you have a complete package, outcrossed on sire line and extensively linebred maternally. Frank Antonacci of Lindy Farms obviously gets it.

 
Let me conclude by emphasising again that what I have said above is not opinion but is based on fact. Breeders should make sure they base their decisions on nothing less.

Muscle Hill Update

The NJSS Final was won by Hill I Am, a son of Muscle Hill making it 3 straight wins for the colt. His pedigree is just as advertised in my earlier blogs on what to expect from Muscle Hill. Based on his similarity to several other sires it was clear that he would do best with Super Bowl line dams that are inbred to Speedy Crown, The dam of Hill I Am is by Cumin, a son of Super Bowl. Cumin's dam is by Speedy Crown and the second dam of Hill I Am is by a son of Speedy Crown - Voila as they say in France- there it is.

Federal Flex is another similar sire with the same expected profile, again predicted when he went to stud, and so far so good. His best to date is Federal Strike from a Striking Sahbra mare. Striking Sahbra is a grandson of Super Bowl and his dam is by Speedy Somolli, son of Speedy Crown. The second dam of Federal Strike is also by a Speedy Somolli line sire. Voila again.

Predicting the performance of first crop sires is really quite easy to do and can save you from making bad choices as a breeder and as a buyer,

Shadow Play Update

The two year old pacing fillies in Ontario produced two more Gold elim winners by Shadow Play with three others finishing second or third. The fastest was Book Babe in 1.52.3 and like the top colts she fit the profile perfectly being from a Life Sign mare that is inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally through Albatross and the No Nukes line (Oil Burner). The other winner was Alibi Seelster from a Cam Fella line dam inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper and with a second dam by Big Towner.

The three runners up included Performing Art - Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross, Yoselin Seelster (a $2000 buy at Forest City) - Artsplace dam inbred to Meadow Skipper, and Nefertiti Bluechip, a Cam Fella line dam inbred to Abercrombie maternally.

Three of the top four to date have Big Towner (Gene Abbe) 2nd or 3rd dams in addition to Albatross maternally which reflects the maternal side of The Panderosa, sire of Shadow Play who also combines Gene Abbe and Albatross lines maternally. This is a unique aspect to the profile that makes Shadow Play somewhat different from Rocknroll Hanover who is by Western Ideal (Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper maternally) In general though the pattern of success for Shadow Play, as predicted, is remarkably similar to that of Rocknroll Hanover. So far 12 of the top 16 by Shadow Play are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred to Meadow Skipper, usually through Albatross or in combination with the No Nukes line versus 11/16 for Rocknroll Hanover. There are four from Meadow Skipper line dams, three of these being Cam Fella line and all inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally, for Shadow Play, while all five of the Meadow Skipper line dams in Rocknroll's top 16 are Cam Fella line and inbred to Meadow Skipper.

A remarkable example of how you can use the profile of a proven stallion to predict the pattern of success for a new sire with similar maternal lines.

Shadow Play - Early results

When I looked at the yearlings by Shadow Play before the yearling sales I had difficulty finding many that fit the expected profile. There were 74 offspring selling, 36 of them colts. Unfortunately most of the breeders had guessed wrong and there were just 7 colts that I could recommend.


Shadow Play is similar to Rocknroll Hanover in pedigree makeup being by a son of Western Hanover and from a mare that combines Direct Scooter with an Adios line. The #1 profile factor for Rocknroll Hanover is for non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper, a son or Albatross line, of have Albatross - No Nukes combinations maternally. Cam Fella line mares with similar inbreeding through Meadow Skipper or that have Direct Scooter and Albatross maternally are secondary considerations as are mares that have the Direct Scooter - Adios combination..

Here are the colts I liked and recommended for purchase accordingly. Rating is next to the name.


Shadversary 101 - 1.50.4 Harrisburg .   Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross maternally, second dam by No Nukes. Qualified and will race in the Callbeck Stakes on Monday

Silverhill Shadow 100 - 1.50.0 Atlantic Classic.  Dam by a son of Matts Scooter, second dam by an Adios line sire through Abercrombie.. Qualified in 1.59.1h and will race in the Callbeck stakes on Monday

Arthur Blue Chip 98 - 1.51.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.53.4 last night.

Shadowbriand 96 - 1.50.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.54.4 last night

Shadow Margeaux 95 - 1.50.2 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Raced in Ontario Grassroots Thursday night, double parked to the quarter by a rookie driver and faded.

Settlemoir Hanover 94 - 1.50.0 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished fifth in Ontario Gold elim last night, race timed in 1.54.4, last quarter in 27 seconds.

Twin B Shadow 65 - 1.51.4 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished third in Ontario Gold Grassroots on Thursday night race timed in 1.54.2  

There was  one other colt by Shadow Play that won a Grassroots on Thursday called Reasonable Force who won in 1.54.4. His dam is Cam Fella Line and is double inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. I missed him in the Harrisburg entries but he did fit the secondary consideration of Cam Fella line dams inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. He was the fourth foal from an unraced dam that had produced nothing to date.   There were no other Shadow Play colts in the money in the first Grassroots and Gold elims.  

It pays to check for the right pedigree before you write the cheque.

Globetrotter Database Update

The database for Globetrotter and Pedigreeguru is now updated for European performance as well as for the 2013 yearlings in North America

http://www.mediafire.com/download/dadzgdshjhidhhk/horses.zip

The number of yearlings in North America continues to drop with over 500 fewer this year than last year and a 35% drop overall since 2007. The total registered to date is just under 8,600.