Lexington Trotting Yearlings

The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.

Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.

Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.

The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.

Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.

I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.

The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.

The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here

http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf

Lexington Pacing Yearling Profile

The 2013 Lexington yearling sale will see the first crops of three sires of special interest.

Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.

The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.

The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows

Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)

Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)

If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.

The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.

Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire.  Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.

Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.

Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.

http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei

The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2)  and Margaret Parrish (M2).

You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.

http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens

The Big Heist and One Famous Glass

Here are a couple of Pedigree Matching success stories with very different backgrounds.

Cliff and Kathy Coonfer have a small breeding operation in Alberta. Like many small breeders they keep two or three mares, raise yearlings for the local sales and occasionally keep one for racing themselves. Last week I got the following message from Kathy via Facebook.

"Hi Norm. Remember about three and a half years ago when I sought your advice when I bought two new mares and then had to make breeding decisions? Both mares' two year olds are in their first stakes races this weekend. We are very pleased with them both so far and look forward to watching their progress. Appreciate your expertise and willingness to help me with mare and sire selection. Cheers, Kathy"

It turns out that their colt, The Big Heist, is now the track record holder at Lacombe for two year old geldings with a record of 1:55.3 taken just after Kathys message. The filly Make Three Wishes is also a winner in 1:59.2 and was a close second in the Starlet stake at Lacombe. Getting two year olds to the races is a low percentage business in North America and reflects the poor overall success rate of breeders generally as noted in my previous post "Percentages". Kathy, however, has learned to do her homework as the pedigrees for her two prodigys attest to.

I did help her out with buying the mares and suggesting possible sires but she and Cliff made the final choices and obviously also know how to raise winners as well. Kathy has a penchant for sibling crosses and The Big Heist is a case in point. He is by No Pan Intended whose second dam is the Albatross mare Best Of The Best. The dam of The Big Heist is Red Star Sugar Gal by Daylon Marshall, a British Columbia stallion that few have probably heard of outside that province. His dam is also Best Of The Best making him a sibling to Classic Wish, the dam of No Pan Intended.  There is more. The third dam of Red Star Sugar Gal is also by Albatross making her inbred maternally to that great maternal influence (see my previous blog A Pattern To Watch For). Kathy and Cliff are off to a flying start with their new broodmare and their second foal, a yearling colt by Blue Burner, will likely get some real attention in the upcoming Alberta sale.

The other story is closer to home and in fact is about a horse owned by my son Charles, now a veterinarian in Ontario. One of his clients races quarter horses and enticed Charles into buying a yearling. They set off for the big yearling sale in Oklahoma and Charles, who created the original Pedigree Matching program for me, studied the pedigrees looking for one that showed the patterns of success he was familiar with in standarbreds. He was also aware that there was a sire called Beduino who is the equivalent to Albatross when it comes to impact on maternal lines. The colt they settled on was called One Famous Glass. His sire was One Famous Eagle, at that point an unproven sire. The dam of One Famous Eagle is by a son of Beduino and the second dam is by Dash For Cash. The dam of One Famous Glass is by a grandson of Dash For Cash that also has a dam by Beduino, making the colt inbred maternally 4x4 to both Beduino and Dash For Cash in typical standardbred fashion. There is an added fillip to the pedigree since there is a son of Streakin Six on the sire line and a daughter of Streakin Six on the maternal line, a pattern that is prominent in such top trotters including Muscle Massive.

On Labour Day, at Ajax Downs in Ontario, One Famous Glass, now three, beat some of the best quarter horses in Canada in a three year old and up elimination for the Canadian Maturity and goes into the final with the fastest elimination time and a chance to be the Horse of the Year in Canada with a win. His biggest threat is the other elimination winner, Lookingforagoodtime, whose pedigree has a similarity with a 3x3 maternal cross of Dash For Cash and Beduino in the dam.

Charles has also learned to do his homework just as Marg Neale, the Queen of Canadian pedigrees, promoted when she was quoted in Hoof Beats magazine.

"I’ve always talked about breeding for dominance – finding the individual that is the strongest aspect of the mare’s pedigree, then finding the stallion that has that individual in a certain place in his pedigree.”

“We have been conditioned by the restriction of catalogues and advertising to view our horses, at most, as three generation animals. There are a great many people out there today that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework”

“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change."

 

It seems that not only the names change but the breeds also. One thing has not changed, however, and that is the need to do your homework.

 

In a few weeks time we hope to launch PM-Online, the long awaited internet version of the Pedigree Matching Globetrotter program. Then you will have the most comprehensive pedigree analysis tools at your fingertips and no more excuses. We will also have an option for thorobred and quarterhorse breeders called Globerunner.

 

Happy homework

Percentages

One of the things you must know if you breed or buy horses is that genetically you are likely to have just one out of four breedings to the same sire that produce something special. Mind you 25% is a lot better than the 4-5% success rate for breeders overall but be prepared to be disappointed more often than not.

There have been some exceptions to the genetic rule such as the Hall brothers, Conway, Angus and Andover who were three of eight, and there have been exceptions in the other direction such as Albatross and his eight failed full siblings making him one of nine.

Another good case in point is the success of world record 2yo trotter Cooler Schooner 2,1.51.3f who is already over two seconds faster that her full sister Broadway Schooner, a winner of  $895K.  There have been two others with the same breeding who raced but did not beat 1.57.

What was the difference ? The pedigree is the same but the random nature of genes and how they interact defies sameness and indeed if you compared all four individuals you would likely see why. Conformation is a big part in yearling selection especially when you are looking at full siblings to something special.  Deweycheatumnhowe had four full siblings before he came along, all of them raced, but Ray Schnitker claimed that Dewey was much the best conformed of them all. It is generally agreed that Andover Hall was the best conformed of the Hall brothers too and his results as a sire have backed that up although I'm sure there are some contrary opinions regarding Conway Hall whose son Windsongs Legacy could have been one of the greats of all time but for his early death.

Getting back to Cooler Schooner she is by Broadway Hall, another son of Conway Hall, and from a mare that is inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. This is a typical feature of sires that have no Speedy Crown maternally. In the case of Cooler Schooner, however, she also has a double connection to Conway Hall since her dam carries a combination of  Arnie Almahurst and Stars Pride, as does the dam of Conway Hall.

The bigger farms seldom go back to the same sire since they have so many stallion options. It keeps the buyers guessing but it results in a lot of failed breedings, hence the 4-5% success rate. So what do you do as a breeder ?  Make sure that your first choice is your best choice and stick with it. The percentages will repay you accordingly. 

A Record Smasher

Last night at the Charlottetown Driving Park a Maritime bred two year old filly set a record - not that unusual you say ? In this case, however, with the filly going in 1.55.1h she not only broke the track record for two year old fillies but also the mark for any two year old pacer in the Maritimes as well as setting a seasons record for fillies in Canada on a half mile track.

The breeder of this phenom is none other than my horse owning partner Bill McNeil of Saulsbrook Farms in Windsor, Nova Scotia. The dam of Saulsbrook Alana is Atlanta Girl, purchased by Bill in the 2006 Harrisburg sale for $10,000 and trained down by his son Alan who you might remember as the lad who bought Lis Mara as a yearling on my recommendation, broke and raced him then sold him at four to race on and make oalmost $2.3 million lifetime.  Alan goes to the sales each year looking for reasonably priced fillies to sell as three year olds after they have qualified and shown promise racing. In the case of Atlanta Girl, also bought on my recommendation, she made it to the races at two and took a mark of 1.57.2f  but she did not come back at three so based on her early ability Bill opted to add her to his small broodmare band rather than sell her.

Bill and I get together each spring and go over his mares and it was decided to breed her in 2010 to Western Paradise - Why ?  Western Paradise is Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper maternally, just like Western Ideal, and that sire has done best with Abercrombie line dams and especially those mares with second dams through Most Happy Fella. Atlanta Girl is by Real Artist and from a dam by Cambest, son of Cam Fella. An added bonus was that if the match produced a filly she would be inbred maternally to Helen Hanover through two daughters of Ensign Hanover, son of Helen Hanover.

This was to be her third foal since she had been bred twice to Royal Mattjesty with limited success. Those breedings were made because there was a partner in Atlanta Girl that had a breeding share for that Ontario based stallion which turned out to be not a very good reason for choosing a stallion. Needless to say I was not in agreement on that mating given the pedigree.

Just before Alana went through the Truro yearling sale I got a call from Reg Macpherson asking me about her pedigree. What could I say - "I think she will be just fine Reg" . He bought her for $10,000 and it looks like she is "just fine" and then some.

Gold Cup And Saucer Time - Night of hopes and dreams

The stage and spotlights are set for the 54th running of the Sobeys Gold Cup & Saucer Saturday at Red Shores Racetrack & Casino. The field will be called to the gate at two minutes to midnight over the legendary Charlottetown Driving Park oval. Post time for the 14 dash program is 7 p.m.

The favourite is Hillbilly Hanover by Dragon Again from Hall Of Fame mare Hattie by Abercrombie. Outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally to Abercrombie he is one of eight %100K plus winners from this great mare who also has two millionaire offspring in Holborn Hanover and Hyperion Hanover.

Customers will have an opportunity to play several promos on the card including a Pick 4 with a guaranteed $10,000 pool beginning on race 11. Players will be able to select Pick 3 beginning on races six, nine and 12 while race 13 will also offer a late double.

The action will be carried live from Charlottetown on the Bell Aliant Race Day broadcast at www.redshores.ca and from the following locations....

- Rideau & teletheatres
- Sudbury & teletheatres
- Inverness
- Truro
- Saint John (EPR)
- Fredricton
- WEG
- Western Fair
- Flamboro
- Georgian
- Trois Rivieres
- Assiniboia
- The Red Mile
- Freehold
- Meadowlands
- Yonkers
- The Meadows
- Hoosier
- Suffolk
- Plainridge
- Running Aces
- Los Alamitos

My colt Scarlet Chaser is the favorite to win his O'Brien Gold division in Race #5. His daddy Hussy Chaser won on Gold Cup night in 1999 - Heres hoping

My partner in the colt, Bill McNeil of Saulsbrook Stables, has a three year old daughter of Hattie
by Somebeachsomewhere so if Hillbilly and Scarlet both win it will be a memorable night.

Whos Watching Hes Watching

Last night the world saw it’s first two year old colt to pace in 1:50 over a 5/8 track. Hes Watching, a $3,000 purchase at Harrisburg, was an easy winner and a boost to the fortunes of his sire American Ideal who has struggled to produce top colts. With the exception of Heston Blue Chip the other ones in his top four are all fillies. These four millionaires would be a credit to any sire’s record but with an overall success rate of about 6% in producing winners of over $100K, American Ideal needs this colt badly to further his career.

Bred by Brittany Farms the pedigree of Hes Watching has the stamp of my fellow pedigree guru Myron Bell, the pedigree brain of Brittany Farms, all over it. Myron will tell anyone that he does not care what the sire line is, he is only interested in what the maternal lines are and he is particularly fond of sibling and maternal crosses to great mares. Much of the success of Brittany Farms has come from their initial purchase of the Bill Sheehan farm and its broodmares. Many of these mares featured such maternal powerhouses as K Nora and Golden Miss. The latter is a principal conduit of Helen Hanover and both of these mares trace back on the X-factor trail to By By, a grand daughter of Miss Russell through her son Nutwood. K Nora is actually the maternal family of both American Ideal and his sire Western Ideal. But that is not all that is in play in the pedigree of Hes Watching, or the pedigrees of American Ideal’s current top four.

American Jewel was almost unbeatable before running into atrial fibrillation problems, not uncommon in exceptional individuals. The striking feature of her pedigree was the X-factor maternal cross of the great Three Diamonds, a grand-daughter of K Nora. What is perhaps not so evident is that she also carries an x-factor double to Margaret Parrish through the maternal lines of Matts Scooter in her sire and Big Towner in her second dam.

Heston Blue Chip is a colt and his dam also carries a double to Helen Hanover through his Cams Card Shark dam and Cam Fella third dam. Big Towner is also present in the maternal line in X-factor position.

Idyllic has a maternal line that goes to Emily Guy, a grand daughter of Margaret Parrish through Arion Guy and is a double to the great x-factor mare Margaret Parrish accordingly.. She also has X-factor doubles to both Albatross and Bret Hanover as well as three x-Factor crosses to By By, the x-factor source inbred into Helen Hanover.

Romantic Moment doubles Margaret Parrish twice across her pedigree through her second dam by Nihilator and her third dam by Falcon Almahurst.

So how does Hes Watching’s pedigree compare to these other great horses by American Ideal ?  The first thing you see is a sibling cross of Lifetime Success to her half brother Life Sign. In addition there is another sibling cross with Western Ideal, the grand-sire of Hes Watching being a three quarter brother to Cheer Me Up, the third dam of Hes Watching. These sibling crosses are not an X-factor consideration but interesting features nevertheless especially the latter which is a pedigree pattern that has shown up recently in some top trotters such as Muscle Massive and features a brother and sister on the top sire line and the maternal line respectively.

What is most important though is the makeup of Hes Watching’s dam who is loaded for business with X-factor traces to Helen Hanover. The dam, Baberhood, is by Real Desire whose maternal line traces to the Sheehan mare Golden Miss and Helen Hanover accordingly and his dam is actually a Helen Hanover double with an additional trace through Trenton. Baberhood picks up another Helen Hanover double through her own dam by Jennas Beach Boy whose dam is by Cam Fella as well as tracing to Helen Hanover on his maternal line. Yet another Helen Hanover trace comes from Baberhood’s second dam by No Nukes and then her third dam is the great K Nora, grand dam of Three Diamonds.

This is a loaded X-factor pedigree that is ready to explode.  In my book Queen Among Queens I used both Real Desire and Jennas Beach Boy as examples of the power of Helen Hanover when doubled maternally in the maternal line. I also included the following in the chapter on X-factor:

“In his book Patterns of Greatness, Thoroughbred researcher Alan Porter noted the need to delve deeply into a pedigree to discover the underlying genetic strengths that are not apparent in the first six generations.

“This can reveal that one particular background cross has been built up to a point where it dominates a pedigree and reaches a critical mass reinforcing vital genes to the point where they explode in the form of a dynamic performer”.

Perhaps Alan Porter is watching Hes Watching from above and telling his heavenly buddies “I told you so”