Always B Miki will no doubt be the new sire in demand at the Lexington sale and the sales company have loaded the front end of the sale with his first offerings. That does not guarantee their success on the racetrack but certainly will boost their sales prices. Betting Line is another new sire that will draw attention along with Ontario sire Control The Moment.
On the trotting side we will see the first yearlings by Southwind Farnk and Bar Hopping, both being sons of Muscle Hill. I will look at these in my next article.
Always B Miki is a son of Always A Virgin (Western Hanover) whose maternal lines are a combination of Artsplace and Big Towner lines. His pedigree is very similar to that of Big Bad John, an Ohio stallion with several crops racing. That sire is by Western Hanover from a mare that is also Artsplace - Big Towner and was a decent racehorse with over $1 million made. His performance as a sire, however, has been somewhat disappointing at just over 10% winners of over $100K although his best will give us a very good profile to use for Always B Miki.
The profile for Big Bad John is, and was, very predictable since it features mares that have Abercrombie and/or Big Towner maternally with 17 of the top 20 showing this connection. The three exceptions are from mares linebred to the Meadow Skipper line that have one of those lines through Albatross. In fact Albatross is another important feature of the profile since that sire is one of the maternal lines of Western Hanover and of Always A Virgin. An Albatross line, or a line by some other son of Meadow Skipper, shows up in 18 of Always A Virgin's top 20 and his two best also have Abercrombie and Big Towner lines.
One thing to note is that there are no top 20 performers by Big Bad John from Western Hanover (No Nukes) line dams. Another noteworthy feature of Big Bad John and Always A Virgin is that the Abercrombie line dams almost all have another Adios/Abercrombie line or a Big Towner line maternally. The one exception is inbred maternally to Albatross.
The profile I predict for success horses by Always B Miki will show they are from mares that are:
Linebred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.
Linebred to the Adios/Abercrombie line or a combination of Abercrombie/Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.
Preference to Cam Fella line dams or other Meadow Skipper line dams with Cam Fella maternally.
No dams by No Nukes line sires. If there is an exception to the No Nukes line it would likely be through Jate Lobell as is the case for Always A Virgin and No Nukes line dams.
Applying this profile produces just 3 of 31 colts and 5 of the 27 fillies in the sale that fit the profile.
Betting Line is by Bettors Delight and there are no existing sires that have his particular maternal combination of Western Hanover and Camtastic (Cam Fella) although there are three sires with Western Hanover dams with foals racing and all three are in Atlantic Canada. Malicious, being by Bettors Delight, is likely our best chance at a possible profile for Betting Line. If you look at all of the active stallions that are sons of Bettors Delight there is a distinct pattern that shows the best from mares that have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines maternally which is not surprising since these are the same lines in the dam of Bettors Delight.
In the case of Malicious his top 5 all have Abercrombie/Albatross line combinations with four of them being from Abercrombie line dams and one from a Western Ideal dam. Looking at the best ones by sons of Bettors Delight generally we see a similar pattern with sires like Mr Apples, Betterthancheddar, Im Gorgeous and Kenneth J with their best consisting of 3 from Abercrombie line dams and 2 from No Nukes line dams and in each case an Abercrombie/Albatross line combination maternally. The one outlier is the best of all, Lather Up, a horse with a unique pedigree that is probably one of a kind although there is a maternal line by a son of Meadow Skipper. Being from a Direct Scooter line dam, like several others by sons of Bettors Delight opens up the possibility of Somebeachsomewhere mares as long as they have Abercombie and a Meadow Skipper line.
The predicted profile is for mares that are:
Abercrombie, No Nukes or Direct Scooter line and have a maternal combination of Abercrombie or Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.
This profile produces 5 of 20 colts and 2 of the 8 fillies on profile.
Showing posts with label standardbreds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label standardbreds. Show all posts
Monday, September 30, 2019
Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Meadowlands Pace 2018
Meadowlands Pace
One of the premier events for three year old pacers has
drawn what coukd be considered one of the weakest fields in its history. There
will be two divisions in elimination to determine the 10 racing from the 15
declared but odds are there are only three with a chance to win.
Nine of the 15 sold in the Lexington sale, 3 in Harrisburg,
and 3 are homebreds either kept or sold privately.
The odds-on favourite should be Stay Hungry but he has
serious contenders in Jimmy Freight, Hayden Hanover, Dorsoduro Hanover and
American History who all should make the final after eliminations this
Saturday. Others that could advance are Captain Deo, Courtly Choice, This Is
The Plan, Fashiononthebeach and Nutcracker Sweet.
There are six that were on the recommended list of pedigree
matched individuals as yearlings.
American History 83 –
1.50.1 sold for 150K at Lexington
Captain Deo 108 – 1.48.4 sold for 90K at Lexington
Dorsoduro Hanover 99
– 1.48.0 sold for 100K at Harrisburg
Hayden Hanover 105
– 1.48.4 sold for 85K at Harrisburg
Stay Hungry 104 – 1.48.0 sold for 150K at Lexington
This Is The Plan 71
– 1.51.2 sold for 90K at Harrisburg
Courtly Choice, a 14th foal, has a correct
pedigree but was not on the list due to his birth order which reduced his rating
below 60.
Thursday, June 21, 2018
North America Standardbred Yearlings in 2018
The number of yearlings registered in North America continues to drop although there are signs that the trend may be bottoming out. The total to date is 7236 and just 36 lower than the 2016 crop. Interestingly the numbers would have been much lower but for an upward tick in trotting yearlings from 3095 in 2016 to 3177 in 2017. Pacing yearlings dropped from 4177 to 4059 as the number of pacing sires at stud with yearlings in 2018 showed a dramatic drop of 57 retirees from the 2017 list. Trotting stallion numbers also dropped with 48 fewer represented in the current crop.
New sires of consequence this year are minimal with the most prominent ones being Artspeak and Hes Watching on the pacing side and trotting yearlings by Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealin who are likely to be the new trotting sires of interest at the yearling sales.
Artspeak stood at Hanover Shoe Farms but has moved to Ontario even before his first crop sells. His pedigree is similar to that of Well Said who also has been relocated from Hanover and nows stands in Ohio. Perhaps the relatively poor performance of Well Said, with a below average success rate of around 13% in terms of producing $100K winners, has something to do with the Artspeak move. His first crop totals just 80 foals. In previous blog articles I wrote about Well Said and his prospects after his first crop. The article is entitled Well Bred - Well Dead and predicted his apparent early demise as a popular sire. I also wrote a recent article on sires with Artsplace dams that documents the surprising facts regarding the lack of success in general for such sires. That being said, as I am fond of also saying that every sire can produce something special if given the right opportunity, Well Said did produce a million dollar winner in Control The Moment, now at stud in Ontario, plus another half dozen that made over $500K. His lack of consistency and low number of top stakes winners, however, have doomed him to be a regional sire. Control The Moment is from an Abercrombie line dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper through No Nukes and/or the Albatross line and as such shares the profile of both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play in general. Lost In Time, the second best by Well Said follows that same profile pattern. The other aspect of his profile is success with Cam Fella line dams that are inbred to Adios/Abercrombie (Katie Said) or inbred maternally to Albatross/No Nukes lines (My Hero Ron).
Hes Watching is by American Ideal and with a maternal combination of Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper lines. The Meadow Skipper line sire in this case is Jennas Beach Boy, a rarity in the dams of current sires as is Real Desire, the Abercrombie line present. There is one other current sire in Heston Blue Chip that is a son of American Ideal and has foals of racing age. His first crop is just qualifying and already has produced one of the fastest qualifying two year olds in Zero Tolerance 2,Q1.53.3m. Heston Blue Chips dam is also a Meadow Skipper/Abercrombie line combination albeit through different sons of these sires. The pedigree of Zero Tolerance shows his dam is a full sister to the great mare Rainbow Blue so perhaps that has as much to do with his early showing. The pedigree is a double return of Adios/Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella lines to the dam of Heston Blue Chip and a very good pedigree match accordingly, however, and something to watch for in the possibilities by Hes Watching. I recommended a breeding to my friends at Saulsbrook Farm for their mare Heroine Hanover who is by Somebeachsomewhere and from the Hall Of Fame mare Httie by Abercrombie. The match is a double/double and similar mares with SBSW and Abercrombie lines would be high on my list at the yearling sales.
I will look at the prospects for Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealing in my next article.
New sires of consequence this year are minimal with the most prominent ones being Artspeak and Hes Watching on the pacing side and trotting yearlings by Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealin who are likely to be the new trotting sires of interest at the yearling sales.
Artspeak stood at Hanover Shoe Farms but has moved to Ontario even before his first crop sells. His pedigree is similar to that of Well Said who also has been relocated from Hanover and nows stands in Ohio. Perhaps the relatively poor performance of Well Said, with a below average success rate of around 13% in terms of producing $100K winners, has something to do with the Artspeak move. His first crop totals just 80 foals. In previous blog articles I wrote about Well Said and his prospects after his first crop. The article is entitled Well Bred - Well Dead and predicted his apparent early demise as a popular sire. I also wrote a recent article on sires with Artsplace dams that documents the surprising facts regarding the lack of success in general for such sires. That being said, as I am fond of also saying that every sire can produce something special if given the right opportunity, Well Said did produce a million dollar winner in Control The Moment, now at stud in Ontario, plus another half dozen that made over $500K. His lack of consistency and low number of top stakes winners, however, have doomed him to be a regional sire. Control The Moment is from an Abercrombie line dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper through No Nukes and/or the Albatross line and as such shares the profile of both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play in general. Lost In Time, the second best by Well Said follows that same profile pattern. The other aspect of his profile is success with Cam Fella line dams that are inbred to Adios/Abercrombie (Katie Said) or inbred maternally to Albatross/No Nukes lines (My Hero Ron).
Hes Watching is by American Ideal and with a maternal combination of Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper lines. The Meadow Skipper line sire in this case is Jennas Beach Boy, a rarity in the dams of current sires as is Real Desire, the Abercrombie line present. There is one other current sire in Heston Blue Chip that is a son of American Ideal and has foals of racing age. His first crop is just qualifying and already has produced one of the fastest qualifying two year olds in Zero Tolerance 2,Q1.53.3m. Heston Blue Chips dam is also a Meadow Skipper/Abercrombie line combination albeit through different sons of these sires. The pedigree of Zero Tolerance shows his dam is a full sister to the great mare Rainbow Blue so perhaps that has as much to do with his early showing. The pedigree is a double return of Adios/Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella lines to the dam of Heston Blue Chip and a very good pedigree match accordingly, however, and something to watch for in the possibilities by Hes Watching. I recommended a breeding to my friends at Saulsbrook Farm for their mare Heroine Hanover who is by Somebeachsomewhere and from the Hall Of Fame mare Httie by Abercrombie. The match is a double/double and similar mares with SBSW and Abercrombie lines would be high on my list at the yearling sales.
I will look at the prospects for Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealing in my next article.
Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Tattersalls Mixed Sale 2018
The annual January mixed sale at The Meadowlands is your last chance to pick up an in-foal mare or a young mare just off the track for the upcoming breeding season. The prices are generally lower than at Harrisburg and there are always some great buys available.
Here is a list of the mares in the sale including broodmares and mares still racing but potentially broodmares. I have added in the performance ratings based on speed and earnings in the family. The rating of the mare gives you a general idea at what level her offspring could be competitive, either regionally or nationally. There are also quite a few that should probably not be bought for breeding purposes because of low ratings.
Here is the profile for all of the mares in the sale including the cross percentages. The profiles are colour coded by sire line and the colour codes are shown at the end of the report. If you bring up the report in PM Online you can click on the cross percentage and get a list of all horses racing with that cross and compare the profile of the mare with the successful ones.
For mares in foal it is important to assess whether the foal being carried has a correct pedigree - no point in wasting a year if it is not, although if you plan to sell as a yearling you may take the risk of a blemish on the mares career.
Here is a list of the mares in the sale including broodmares and mares still racing but potentially broodmares. I have added in the performance ratings based on speed and earnings in the family. The rating of the mare gives you a general idea at what level her offspring could be competitive, either regionally or nationally. There are also quite a few that should probably not be bought for breeding purposes because of low ratings.
Here is the profile for all of the mares in the sale including the cross percentages. The profiles are colour coded by sire line and the colour codes are shown at the end of the report. If you bring up the report in PM Online you can click on the cross percentage and get a list of all horses racing with that cross and compare the profile of the mare with the successful ones.
For mares in foal it is important to assess whether the foal being carried has a correct pedigree - no point in wasting a year if it is not, although if you plan to sell as a yearling you may take the risk of a blemish on the mares career.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
The Double Double
No, it is not your favourite coffee at Tim Hortons but it should be on your list of favourite yearling purchases.
Last year saw Mcwicked, a son of Mcardle, take home the spoils as the top three year old colt in North America. He was a Double Double as have been most of the very good horses that I have picked out for owner Ed James over the past seven years. In fact the best five, collectively winning almost $7 million, have all fit that special pedigree pattern that I call the Double Double.
Pedigree Matching focuses on the maternal lines of the sire and having those same lines returned from the dam. That is known as a double return in what the old saying tells us to "return to the sire the best blood of his dam".
A Double Double goes one step further by having the mare also return two lines the same as in the dam of the Grandsire.
In Mcwicked's case the first double return is of Meadow Skipper, through sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. The second double is through Volomite and Adios, the maternal lines of Mcardle' s sire, Falcon Seelster thus completing the Double Double.
Which brings me to a horse that is unbeaten in his career called Roland N Rock, a son of Rocknroll Hanover from a mare by Cambest. He has yet to meet up with the top three year olds in North America but is aimed at the Meadowlands Pace where he will have to race against Artspeak and North America Cup winner Wakizashi Hanover.
His pedigree doubles back Abercrombie and Volomite from his dam for the first double, then Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper as is found in the maternal lines of Western Ideal for the second double.
I just might have a small wager on this colt in the Meadowlands Pace.
Last year saw Mcwicked, a son of Mcardle, take home the spoils as the top three year old colt in North America. He was a Double Double as have been most of the very good horses that I have picked out for owner Ed James over the past seven years. In fact the best five, collectively winning almost $7 million, have all fit that special pedigree pattern that I call the Double Double.
Pedigree Matching focuses on the maternal lines of the sire and having those same lines returned from the dam. That is known as a double return in what the old saying tells us to "return to the sire the best blood of his dam".
A Double Double goes one step further by having the mare also return two lines the same as in the dam of the Grandsire.
In Mcwicked's case the first double return is of Meadow Skipper, through sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. The second double is through Volomite and Adios, the maternal lines of Mcardle' s sire, Falcon Seelster thus completing the Double Double.
Which brings me to a horse that is unbeaten in his career called Roland N Rock, a son of Rocknroll Hanover from a mare by Cambest. He has yet to meet up with the top three year olds in North America but is aimed at the Meadowlands Pace where he will have to race against Artspeak and North America Cup winner Wakizashi Hanover.
His pedigree doubles back Abercrombie and Volomite from his dam for the first double, then Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper as is found in the maternal lines of Western Ideal for the second double.
I just might have a small wager on this colt in the Meadowlands Pace.
Monday, November 3, 2014
The Breeders Cup - The Pedigrees
The Breeders Cup - the self styled World Championships of thoroughbred racing - is now over. The dozen or so non US breds have gone home licking their wounds except for a lone colt from Japan who defied the norm with his pedigree and won a BC event against all odds.
There were 13 races in total with purses from $1 to $5 million in various combinations of track surface, distance, age and sex.
The Classic was the top race and was won by Bayern, a son of Offlee Wild and a descendent of Nearco, the line known for Northern Dancer, as were six of the other Cup winners. The other six events were won by descendents of Native Dancer, the line that is famous for Mr Prospector. That pretty much sums up what you need to win a Breeders Cup. A Nearco line sire bred to a Native Dancer line dam or vice versa. Both lines ultimately go back to the same origin in The Darley Arabian, one of three founding sires of the thoroughbred breed and also the origin of the majority of Standardbreds.
There were three exceptions to this general rule. One was the great three year old filly Untapable who solidified her claim for Horse Of The Year with a convincing win in her third consecutive Grade 1 win. She is linebred to the Nearco line and inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. Her dam is double linebred to Nearco and her 2nd dam is also linebred to Nearco.
In a sport where outcrossing to the point of having little or no common individuals in the first six generations this has to be somewhat of a revelation. In standardbred breeding her pedigree would be considered mildly inbred but for TB officiandos she must be quite a shock. Maternal inbreeding is a big part of Standardbred breeding as we see for the top 3 year old filly Shake It Cerry.
Is there a correlation between speed and maternal inbreeding ? Every year we see new "world" records set by standardbreds but the thoroughbreds have none. Perhaps it has something to do with the emphasis on speed versus endurance. The bottom line in both sports is not how fast you go but how much money you make. With the "classic" races in thoroughbreds going distances from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles it appears that breeding for distance is key and the prevailng wisdom is that outcrossing with a minimum of inbreeding is the only way to succeed.
North America is the only jurisdiction where pacing and trotting races are raced almost exclusively at a distance of one mile. That was the standard for inclusion in the first stud book - the ability to trot or pace a mile within a certain time, originally 2:30. In Europe and down under in Australia and New Zealand they are not so bound to tradition with racing conducted at different distances and with different starting methods.
In recent times we have seen exceptional performances by European standardbreds such as Sebastian K racing in North America and the success of the Swedish bred Revenue at stud in North America siring the likes of multi millionaire Market Share, have opened the doors for greater opportunity to improve the breed. The thoroughbred industry has been international in scope for many years.
Getting back to the Breeders Cup races there was a Japanese bred called Karakontie who also parlayed his Nearco line breeding into a Breeders Cup win. He balanced out his pedigree by being inbred maternally to Native Dancer though and his dam and 2nd dam were traditionally outcrossed Nearco to Native Dancer and vice versa.
Perhaps both breeds can learn from each other with the T-breds embracing maternal inbreeding and the Standarbreds welcoming the outcross possibilities from other lands.
There were 13 races in total with purses from $1 to $5 million in various combinations of track surface, distance, age and sex.
The Classic was the top race and was won by Bayern, a son of Offlee Wild and a descendent of Nearco, the line known for Northern Dancer, as were six of the other Cup winners. The other six events were won by descendents of Native Dancer, the line that is famous for Mr Prospector. That pretty much sums up what you need to win a Breeders Cup. A Nearco line sire bred to a Native Dancer line dam or vice versa. Both lines ultimately go back to the same origin in The Darley Arabian, one of three founding sires of the thoroughbred breed and also the origin of the majority of Standardbreds.
There were three exceptions to this general rule. One was the great three year old filly Untapable who solidified her claim for Horse Of The Year with a convincing win in her third consecutive Grade 1 win. She is linebred to the Nearco line and inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. Her dam is double linebred to Nearco and her 2nd dam is also linebred to Nearco.
In a sport where outcrossing to the point of having little or no common individuals in the first six generations this has to be somewhat of a revelation. In standardbred breeding her pedigree would be considered mildly inbred but for TB officiandos she must be quite a shock. Maternal inbreeding is a big part of Standardbred breeding as we see for the top 3 year old filly Shake It Cerry.
Is there a correlation between speed and maternal inbreeding ? Every year we see new "world" records set by standardbreds but the thoroughbreds have none. Perhaps it has something to do with the emphasis on speed versus endurance. The bottom line in both sports is not how fast you go but how much money you make. With the "classic" races in thoroughbreds going distances from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles it appears that breeding for distance is key and the prevailng wisdom is that outcrossing with a minimum of inbreeding is the only way to succeed.
North America is the only jurisdiction where pacing and trotting races are raced almost exclusively at a distance of one mile. That was the standard for inclusion in the first stud book - the ability to trot or pace a mile within a certain time, originally 2:30. In Europe and down under in Australia and New Zealand they are not so bound to tradition with racing conducted at different distances and with different starting methods.
In recent times we have seen exceptional performances by European standardbreds such as Sebastian K racing in North America and the success of the Swedish bred Revenue at stud in North America siring the likes of multi millionaire Market Share, have opened the doors for greater opportunity to improve the breed. The thoroughbred industry has been international in scope for many years.
Getting back to the Breeders Cup races there was a Japanese bred called Karakontie who also parlayed his Nearco line breeding into a Breeders Cup win. He balanced out his pedigree by being inbred maternally to Native Dancer though and his dam and 2nd dam were traditionally outcrossed Nearco to Native Dancer and vice versa.
Perhaps both breeds can learn from each other with the T-breds embracing maternal inbreeding and the Standarbreds welcoming the outcross possibilities from other lands.
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