Monday, September 30, 2019

New Trotting Sires at Lexington

Sires by Muscle Hill are popping up everywhere and there are two with their first crops in Lexington this year. We already have sires like Trixton, E L Titan and Southwind Spirit with foals racing so we can at least see if they have anything in common as far as mare preference.

Bar Hopping and Southwind Frank do not have many in the first session so perhaps that is an omen. Nevertheless there will be good ones as there are for any sire. Their maternal lines are opposite. Bar Hopping's dam is linebred to Super Bowl while the dam of Southwind Frank is linebred to the Speedster line. In either case, though, based on sires with similar maternal lines they both will do best with mares that are linebred or inbred to the Speedster line or mares with no Speedy Crown line maternally. This is backed up by the early profiles of the sons of Muscle Hill at stud.

Of the 20 top ones 18 of them are from mares linebred or inbred to the Speedster line usually through Speedy Crown  himself or Valley Victory. The broodmare sires involved are through Valley Victory (7) incl 6 of the top 10, other Speedy Crown (2), Super Bowl/Stars Pride (4), Noble Victory (4), and Pine Chip (3).The lone exceptions are Golden Trix from a mare that is both linebred and inbred to the Stars Pride line and has a second dam by Speedy Crown and Spoiled Princess who has no Speedy Crown maternally.

19 of the 20 have a Stars Pride line (16) and/or Noble Victory line (3) in their dams. The lone exception here is from a Dream Vacation (Pine Chip) mare that is inbred to Speedy Crown.

The dams that are Stars Pride line are inbred to Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown. A Super Bowl line shows up in 16 of the top 20 but not in the top 3.

The profile then is pretty straightforward. The dams should be

Linebred of inbred to Speedster including at least one line through Speedy Crown.
A Super Bowl line maternally would be preferable for Bar Hopping who like his sire has a dam linebred to Stars Pride.

New Sires at Lexington

Always B Miki will no doubt be the new sire in demand at the Lexington sale and the sales company have loaded the front end of the sale with his first offerings. That does not guarantee their success on the racetrack but certainly will boost their sales prices. Betting Line is another new sire that will draw attention along with Ontario sire Control The Moment.

On the trotting side we will see the first yearlings by Southwind Farnk and Bar Hopping, both being sons of Muscle Hill. I will look at these in my next article.

Always B Miki is a son of Always A Virgin (Western Hanover) whose maternal lines are a combination of Artsplace and Big Towner lines. His pedigree is very similar to that of Big Bad John, an Ohio stallion with several crops racing. That sire is by Western Hanover from a mare that is also Artsplace - Big Towner and was a decent racehorse with over $1 million made. His performance as a sire, however, has been somewhat disappointing at just over 10% winners of over $100K although his best will give us a very good profile to use for Always B Miki.

The profile for Big Bad John is, and was, very predictable since it features mares that have Abercrombie and/or Big Towner maternally with 17 of the top 20 showing this connection. The three exceptions are from mares linebred to the Meadow Skipper line that have one of those lines through Albatross. In fact Albatross is another important feature of the profile since that sire is one of the maternal lines of Western Hanover and of Always A Virgin. An Albatross line, or a line by some other son of Meadow Skipper, shows up in 18 of Always A Virgin's top 20 and his two best also have Abercrombie and Big Towner lines.

One thing to note is that there are no top 20 performers by Big Bad John from Western Hanover (No Nukes) line dams. Another noteworthy feature of Big Bad John and Always A Virgin is that the Abercrombie line dams almost all have another Adios/Abercrombie line or a Big Towner line maternally. The one exception is inbred maternally to Albatross.

The profile I predict for success horses by Always B Miki will show they are from mares that are:

Linebred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.
Linebred to the Adios/Abercrombie line or a combination of Abercrombie/Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.
Preference to Cam Fella line dams or other Meadow Skipper line dams with Cam Fella maternally.
No dams by No Nukes line sires. If there is an exception to the No Nukes line it would likely be through Jate Lobell as is the case for Always A Virgin and No Nukes line dams.

Applying this profile produces just 3 of 31 colts  and 5 of the 27 fillies in the sale that fit the profile.

Betting Line is by Bettors Delight and there are no existing sires that have his particular maternal combination of  Western Hanover and Camtastic (Cam Fella) although there are three sires with Western Hanover dams with foals racing and all three are in Atlantic Canada. Malicious, being by Bettors Delight, is likely our best chance at a possible profile for Betting Line. If you look at all of the active stallions that are sons of Bettors Delight there is a distinct pattern that shows the best from mares that have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines maternally which is not surprising since these are the same lines in the dam of Bettors Delight.

In the case of Malicious his top 5 all have Abercrombie/Albatross line combinations with four of them being from Abercrombie line dams and one from a Western Ideal dam. Looking at the best ones by sons of Bettors Delight generally we see a similar pattern with sires like Mr Apples, Betterthancheddar, Im Gorgeous and Kenneth J  with their best consisting of 3 from Abercrombie line dams and 2 from No Nukes line dams and in each case an Abercrombie/Albatross line combination maternally. The one outlier is the best of all, Lather Up, a horse with a unique pedigree that is probably one of a kind although there is a maternal line by a son of Meadow Skipper. Being from a Direct Scooter line dam, like several others by sons of Bettors Delight opens up the possibility of Somebeachsomewhere mares as long as they have Abercombie and a Meadow Skipper line.

The predicted profile is for mares that are:

Abercrombie, No Nukes or Direct Scooter line and have a maternal combination of Abercrombie or Big Towner with at least one line by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire.

This profile produces 5 of 20 colts and 2 of the 8 fillies on profile.