Translate

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Pacing Stallions for 2019


Lazarus and All Bets Off

Considering that Bettors Delight is arguably the best pacing stallion in the world today it is surprising that he does not have many sons at stud. But then again his sire Cams Card Shark is in the same boat. Bettors Delight and his full brother Roll With Joe, along with Four Starzzz Shark are the only "major" sires that Cams Card Shark has produced. 


The current list of sires by Bettors Delight shows 9 in North America but only four of them have foals racing. Perhaps the most prominent of those is I'm Gorgeous whose limited production includes the exceptional colt Lather Up whose dam is by In The Pocket by Direct Scooter, the same sire line as the dam of Lazarus. That does not really prove much other than the Bettors Delight line and Direct Scooter lines are compatible under certain circumstances and perhaps mares by other Direct Scooter line sires such as Somebeachsomewhere will be important to the success of Bettors Delight sons at stud especially Lazarus.

What adds a bit of credibility to that connection is the success of the best filly so far from a Somebeachsomewhere mare, Youaremycandygirl. She is by American Ideal, a Western Hanover line, but it is the maternal side of that sire that is important since it is a combination of Direct Scooter and Albatross lines just like those of Lazarus. The closest sire overall to the pedigree of Lazarus is the Cam Fella son Village Jiffy whose maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Nero, like Albatross a son of Meadow Skipper.

An interesting feature of all of the current sires by Bettors Delight is the Albatross maternal connection, something that is a key part of the success of Bettors Delight generally. In fact almost all have 4x4 maternal crosses to Albatross or his sire Meadow Skipper. That link to Albatross is very noticeable in their best offspring. Kenneth J's eight that earned over $100K include seven with that connection. Betterthancheddar shows 6/6 for his $100K winners. Im Gorgeous is 5/6. 

All Bets Off and Lazarus have the same 4x4 Albatross cross maternally so there is a high degree of probability that their success as sires will depend upon finding mares that continue the trend. Village Jiffy whose pedigree is closest to Lazarus Village has 19 of his top 20 with a maternal cross of  Meadow Skipper through a son or an Albatross line sire. Given that Albatross is fast disappearing in the first three dams of todays broodmares this may create a problem. There is, however, another option.

The Adios line, particularly through Abercrombie, is also an important part of the profile of Bettors Delight since his own dam is by a son of Abercrombie. His profile shows 18 of his top 20 with an Adios line in the dams with the exceptions having Big Towner. His sons appear to be doing the same thing.



When you win over $3 million that should give you credibility as a potential sire - right ?

It is, however, unusual to see a modern day stallion enter the stud as an eight year old and I am not aware of any valid comparisons to prove whether this is a scenario for possible success. I am, however, fairly convinced that stallion success is largely based on the maternal connections that occur in the middle of the pedigree, the 3rd and 4th generation crosses of the offspring in particular. All Bets Off is from a mare by Dexter Nukes, a son of No Nukes, and has a second dam by the trotting bred Horton Hanover (Volomite line).

Camystic and  Driven To Win, are the only sires with Dexter Nukes dams that have offspring racing and they may offer a clue to the possibilities although their second dams are through Adios line. Malicious is Western Hanover with a Adios line second dam also. The Adios line, in fact, is the dominant factor in their best. The three good ones by Driven To Win have Abercrombie maternally and all three have the Meadow Skipper/Albatross connection we see generally for Bettors Delight line stallions. Camystic has 14 of his top 20 from Abercrombie line mares, 18 of 20 with Abercrombie in the pedigree and 19 of 20 with the Albatross connection, the sole connection being the highly inbred Jackson K Down whose dam was by Dexter Nukes.

Mysticism in Florida is Western Hanover - Harold J (Volomite line) maternally, the only active sire similar maternally to All Bets Off,  and his only two good ones have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines in their dams. 

It looks like the same profile keys for both Lazarus and All Bets Off.

Predicted Profile

Mares that are line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line including one dam by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire plus an adios/Abercrombie line maternally.

Example Pedigrees


Saturday, December 29, 2018

New Stallions for 2019 - Tactical Landing

Tactical Landing

With the addition of Tactical Landing to the stallion ranks there are now 13 sons of Muscle Hill standing in North America - I hope that is not a bad omen. As a race horse he did not have much luck until late in his three year old season when he convincingly won back to back major stakes in the Breeders Crown and the TVG to just get past his $800,000 purchase price. That was not enough to get him any year-end honours but enough to justify giving him a chance as a stallion. He is, after all, a full brother to a $1.66 million winner in the filly Mission Brief.

His pedigree is unusual being from a mare by Italian bred Varenne whose own stallion career has been somewhat of a disappointment and whose broodmares are pretty much a disaster generally at 3.9% success rate in producing $100K winners. Four out his top six credits, however, are from the dam of Tactical Landing so she had to have something special. She was a Breeders Crown winner at three and an X-factor double to both Speedy Crown and Stars Pride. She was also an example of the TB pattern being by a Speedy Crown line sire and from a dam that is inbred maternally to the same sire line.

Tactical Landing has a double/double pedigree and like many of the best by Muscle Hill has maternal connections to Speedy Crown, Noble Victory and Stars Pride across his pedigree. His principal sire lines maternally are through Varenne (Speedy Somolli line) and Pine Chip (Arnie Almahurst line). As a Valley Victory line sire that puts him in the same category as Glidemaster whose dam was by Mr Lavec (Speedy Somolli) - Florida Pro (Arnie Almahurst). That may not be very auspicious considering the stud career of Glidemaster but it should give us a good model to follow.

Glidemaster's best offspring was the exceptional mare Maven, a double millionaire and a double/double pedigree as well. Her dam, M Stewart, was by American Winner, whose dam was by Speedy Somolli, and her second dam was by Arnie Almahurst, third dam by a son of Stars Pride - all of the lines in Tactical Landing worth connecting too.

Fourteen of Glidemaster's best were from non-Speedster line dams and four of the exceptions had an Arnie Almahurst line maternally. Fifteen of his best, including the top four, were inbred maternally to Speedster mostly on the TB pattern. In that respect Maven was both DD and TB.

Expected Profile

Non Speedy Crown line dams that are inbred maternally to Speedster line and have Arnie Almahurst and/or Stars Pride lines maternally.


Example Breedings - M Stewart, Mamora Bay

Thursday, December 27, 2018

New Stallions for 2019 - Trotters

International Moni

His sire is the French champion Love You, a sire that has more offspring than any stallion currently standing worldwide. His dam is the richest trotter of all time. With credentials like that International Moni looks like a sure thing. There are , however, very few sure things in the uncertain world of stallion success. Consider the following.

This is the best foal of 10 by Moni Maker and the first one by Love You. While 8 of these foals raced just two made over $100K. There is just one of the 29 foals from Moni Maker's daughters that is a $100K winner.

The statistics for Love You are well below what we might consider as successful in North America with less than a 10% success rate over all for his racing offspring and 6.5% for his fillies that raced to date. His broodmare credits show a 5% success rate.

Based on those statistics, if this was a North American sire, I would suspect that breeders would be less than enthusiastic of his chances of success. So how have the other sons of Love You fared out ?

International Moni is #11 on Love You's top performers and all four of the stallions above him stood at stud in France. The best of the four is Quaker Jet at 5.6% and his last crop was 2016. Royal Dream is 2.9%, Village Mystic is 2.6%, and Booster Winner is 0/67 in his first crop of three year olds. The Swedish bred Nu Pagadi has a dam by a son of Speedy Crown but he is 0/60 and no longer standing while Rocklyn in France also has a Speedy Crown line dam and is the best siring son of Love You  at 6.4% winners of over $100K.

International Moni is the first new stallion in several years to have a dam by Speedy Crown with the last significant ones being the sons of Valley Victory, namely Muscles Yankee, Donerail, Victory Dream, Lindy Lane, and Yankee Glide. Only the last one, Yankee Glide, continues to produce occasional top horses and indeed is the one whose dam most closely resembles Moni Maker in terms of pedigree being by Speedy Crown and with a Stars Pride line second dam. Yankee Glide's best three year old is from a mare by Windsongs Legacy that has second and third dams that are Stars Pride and Speedy Crown line respectively. In fact that is typical of Yankee Glides best since 16 of his top 20 are from non Speedy Crown line dams. 17 of the top 20 have a maternal line dam by Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown and 18 of 20 have a Stars Pride line present.

Predicted Profile

Stars Pride line or Noble Victory line dams with a second or third dam by Speedy Crown, a son or a Speedy Somolli line. Preference to mares that also have Stars Pride and/or Noble Victory lines maternally. Speedy Crown line broodmares only when broodmare sire as a Stars Pride line dam.

Example - Yursa Hanover, Bee A Magician