2019 Stallion Finder

The 2019 Stallion Finder is now available on the PM website .

The document contains all of the significant stallions currently standing in North America with tables listed by stallion name, State/Province and sire lines along with suggested sire lines to look for in matching your mares.

Among the interesting facts shown by the listing :

280 Pacing Sires
276 Trotting Sires
Most Pacing stallion sons at stud - Western Hanover 31, Rocknroll Hanover 18
Most Trotting stallion sons at stud - Muscles Yankee 25, Muscle Hill 24
Oldest Pacing stallion - Dream Away 1994
Oldest Trotting stallion - Giant Hit 1992
Most Pacing Stallions by State/Province - Ohio 41, Ontario 34, Indiana 34
Most Trotting Stallions by State/Province - Indiana 51, Ohio 45, Ontario 32

There are stallions standing in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Kansas for the first time in the Stallion Finder.

Prince Edward Island is down to only one stallion and the Sires Stakes program for trotters will soon be extinct unless we find a couple of additional stallions for this breeding season. If you know of any soon to be retired stallions that may be available for a last ditch lease on life let me know. Stars Pride line or Valley Victory line preferred.

Pacing Stallions for 2019

Lazarus and All Bets Off

Considering that Bettors Delight is arguably the best pacing stallion in the world today it is surprising that he does not have many sons at stud. But then again his sire Cams Card Shark is in the same boat. Bettors Delight and his full brother Roll With Joe, along with Four Starzzz Shark are the only "major" sires that Cams Card Shark has produced. 

Lazarus

The current list of sires by Bettors Delight shows 9 in North America but only four of them have foals racing. Perhaps the most prominent of those is I'm Gorgeous whose limited production includes the exceptional colt Lather Up whose dam is by In The Pocket by Direct Scooter, the same sire line as the dam of Lazarus. That does not really prove much other than the Bettors Delight line and Direct Scooter lines are compatible under certain circumstances and perhaps mares by other Direct Scooter line sires such as Somebeachsomewhere will be important to the success of Bettors Delight sons at stud especially Lazarus.

What adds a bit of credibility to that connection is the success of the best filly so far from a Somebeachsomewhere mare, Youaremycandygirl. She is by American Ideal, a Western Hanover line, but it is the maternal side of that sire that is important since it is a combination of Direct Scooter and Albatross lines just like those of Lazarus. The closest sire overall to the pedigree of Lazarus is the Cam Fella son Village Jiffy whose maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Nero, like Albatross a son of Meadow Skipper.

An interesting feature of all of the current sires by Bettors Delight is the Albatross maternal connection, something that is a key part of the success of Bettors Delight generally. In fact almost all have 4x4 maternal crosses to Albatross or his sire Meadow Skipper. That link to Albatross is very noticeable in their best offspring. Kenneth J's eight that earned over $100K include seven with that connection. Betterthancheddar shows 6/6 for his $100K winners. Im Gorgeous is 5/6. 

All Bets Off and Lazarus have the same 4x4 Albatross cross maternally so there is a high degree of probability that their success as sires will depend upon finding mares that continue the trend. Village Jiffy whose pedigree is closest to Lazarus Village has 19 of his top 20 with a maternal cross of  Meadow Skipper through a son or an Albatross line sire. Given that Albatross is fast disappearing in the first three dams of todays broodmares this may create a problem. There is, however, another option.

The Adios line, particularly through Abercrombie, is also an important part of the profile of Bettors Delight since his own dam is by a son of Abercrombie. His profile shows 18 of his top 20 with an Adios line in the dams with the exceptions having Big Towner. His sons appear to be doing the same thing.

All Bets Off

When you win over $3 million that should give you credibility as a potential sire - right ?

It is, however, unusual to see a modern day stallion enter the stud as an eight year old and I am not aware of any valid comparisons to prove whether this is a scenario for possible success. I am, however, fairly convinced that stallion success is largely based on the maternal connections that occur in the middle of the pedigree, the 3rd and 4th generation crosses of the offspring in particular. All Bets Off is from a mare by Dexter Nukes, a son of No Nukes, and has a second dam by the trotting bred Horton Hanover (Volomite line).

Camystic and  Driven To Win, are the only sires with Dexter Nukes dams that have offspring racing and they may offer a clue to the possibilities although their second dams are through Adios line. Malicious is Western Hanover with a Adios line second dam also. The Adios line, in fact, is the dominant factor in their best. The three good ones by Driven To Win have Abercrombie maternally and all three have the Meadow Skipper/Albatross connection we see generally for Bettors Delight line stallions. Camystic has 14 of his top 20 from Abercrombie line mares, 18 of 20 with Abercrombie in the pedigree and 19 of 20 with the Albatross connection, the sole connection being the highly inbred Jackson K Down whose dam was by Dexter Nukes.

Mysticism in Florida is Western Hanover - Harold J (Volomite line) maternally, the only active sire similar maternally to All Bets Off,  and his only two good ones have both Abercrombie and Albatross lines in their dams. 

It looks like the same profile keys for both Lazarus and All Bets Off.

Predicted Profile

Mares that are line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line including one dam by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line sire plus an adios/Abercrombie line maternally.

Example Pedigrees

Sweet Lady Jane, Pocket Comb, Bay Girl

New Stallions for 2019 - Tactical Landing

Tactical Landing

With the addition of Tactical Landing to the stallion ranks there are now 13 sons of Muscle Hill standing in North America - I hope that is not a bad omen. As a race horse he did not have much luck until late in his three year old season when he convincingly won back to back major stakes in the Breeders Crown and the TVG to just get past his $800,000 purchase price. That was not enough to get him any year-end honours but enough to justify giving him a chance as a stallion. He is, after all, a full brother to a $1.66 million winner in the filly Mission Brief.

His pedigree is unusual being from a mare by Italian bred Varenne whose own stallion career has been somewhat of a disappointment and whose broodmares are pretty much a disaster generally at 3.9% success rate in producing $100K winners. Four out his top six credits, however, are from the dam of Tactical Landing so she had to have something special. She was a Breeders Crown winner at three and an X-factor double to both Speedy Crown and Stars Pride. She was also an example of the TB pattern being by a Speedy Crown line sire and from a dam that is inbred maternally to the same sire line.

Tactical Landing has a double/double pedigree and like many of the best by Muscle Hill has maternal connections to Speedy Crown, Noble Victory and Stars Pride across his pedigree. His principal sire lines maternally are through Varenne (Speedy Somolli line) and Pine Chip (Arnie Almahurst line). As a Valley Victory line sire that puts him in the same category as Glidemaster whose dam was by Mr Lavec (Speedy Somolli) - Florida Pro (Arnie Almahurst). That may not be very auspicious considering the stud career of Glidemaster but it should give us a good model to follow.

Glidemaster's best offspring was the exceptional mare Maven, a double millionaire and a double/double pedigree as well. Her dam, M Stewart, was by American Winner, whose dam was by Speedy Somolli, and her second dam was by Arnie Almahurst, third dam by a son of Stars Pride - all of the lines in Tactical Landing worth connecting too.

Fourteen of Glidemaster's best were from non-Speedster line dams and four of the exceptions had an Arnie Almahurst line maternally. Fifteen of his best, including the top four, were inbred maternally to Speedster mostly on the TB pattern. In that respect Maven was both DD and TB.

Expected Profile

Non Speedy Crown line dams that are inbred maternally to Speedster line and have Arnie Almahurst and/or Stars Pride lines maternally.

Example Breedings - M Stewart, Mamora Bay

New Stallions for 2019 - Trotters

International Moni

His sire is the French champion Love You, a sire that has more offspring than any stallion currently standing worldwide. His dam is the richest trotter of all time. With credentials like that International Moni looks like a sure thing. There are , however, very few sure things in the uncertain world of stallion success. Consider the following.

This is the best foal of 10 by Moni Maker and the first one by Love You. While 8 of these foals raced just two made over $100K. There is just one of the 29 foals from Moni Maker's daughters that is a $100K winner.

The statistics for Love You are well below what we might consider as successful in North America with less than a 10% success rate over all for his racing offspring and 6.5% for his fillies that raced to date. His broodmare credits show a 5% success rate.

Based on those statistics, if this was a North American sire, I would suspect that breeders would be less than enthusiastic of his chances of success. So how have the other sons of Love You fared out ?

International Moni is #11 on Love You's top performers and all four of the stallions above him stood at stud in France. The best of the four is Quaker Jet at 5.6% and his last crop was 2016. Royal Dream is 2.9%, Village Mystic is 2.6%, and Booster Winner is 0/67 in his first crop of three year olds. The Swedish bred Nu Pagadi has a dam by a son of Speedy Crown but he is 0/60 and no longer standing while Rocklyn in France also has a Speedy Crown line dam and is the best siring son of Love You  at 6.4% winners of over $100K.

International Moni is the first new stallion in several years to have a dam by Speedy Crown with the last significant ones being the sons of Valley Victory, namely Muscles Yankee, Donerail, Victory Dream, Lindy Lane, and Yankee Glide. Only the last one, Yankee Glide, continues to produce occasional top horses and indeed is the one whose dam most closely resembles Moni Maker in terms of pedigree being by Speedy Crown and with a Stars Pride line second dam. Yankee Glide's best three year old is from a mare by Windsongs Legacy that has second and third dams that are Stars Pride and Speedy Crown line respectively. In fact that is typical of Yankee Glides best since 16 of his top 20 are from non Speedy Crown line dams. 17 of the top 20 have a maternal line dam by Speedy Crown or a son of Speedy Crown and 18 of 20 have a Stars Pride line present.

Predicted Profile

Stars Pride line or Noble Victory line dams with a second or third dam by Speedy Crown, a son or a Speedy Somolli line. Preference to mares that also have Stars Pride and/or Noble Victory lines maternally. Speedy Crown line broodmares only when broodmare sire as a Stars Pride line dam.

Example - Yursa Hanover, Bee A Magician

Breeders Crown and the Double Double

It is becoming increasingly clear that if you want a world record holder or a Breeders Crown contender your chances are greatly increased if you have the Double/Double pattern in the pedigree of the yearlings you buy, particularily with trotters.

In Lexington several world records were set with Homicide Hunter, Six Pack, Plunge Blue Chip and Iceattraction all having double/double pedigrees.

In the eliminations of the Breeders Crown at Pocono five of the ten winners were double/double and a couple of others were very close to the pattern. They included pacer Tall Drink Hanover and trotters Champagne Jane, Woodside Charm, Smart As Hill and the undefeated Gimpanzee, who is yet another top trotter produced by my client Order By Stable from his small but select broodmare band in New Jersey.

Stefan Balaszi of Order By Stable asked me several years ago to review his mares, which numbered close to 20 at the time, since he had to that point been unsuccessful in producing anything really special. After selling several mares and buying a couple of replacements, and with my assistance with breeding suggestions the Order By Stable yearlings are now in high demand and for good reason. He now has the top three year old in Atlanta, a Hambletonian winner, and the top two year old filly in Gimpanzee, unbeaten in eight starts. Another Order By table bred BC contender named Kings County has qualified for the two year old colt final.

In Harrisburg this year there are just 35 yearlings of the 876 yearlings in Book 1 with the ultimate pattern of success, 17 pacers and 18 trotters. Compare that percentage with the 50% of recent world records and Breeders Crown elimination winners and you can see what I mean by your chances being greatly increased. I expect the three year old elimination winners will continue that trend.

Double/double pedigrees are not hard to spot in a three generation pedigree if you can recognize the sire lines. Read my previous blogs on the Double/Double for assistance.

Harrisburg is your last chance this year to buy a potential champion.  Ratings for Harrisburg are available by contacting me directly at norman@pedigreematching.com including the list of DD
special yearlings.

Double - Double Yearlings

Add Tall Drink Hanover, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.

There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.

2018 Yearling Sales

Profiles and ratings are now available on the Pedigree Matching site for the New York (Goshen, Morrisville), Alberta and Ohio Jug sales. The recommendations for the Goshen and Morrisville sales are combined in the Ratings report. Sire profiles for all sires represented will be available shortly with some already posted.

You can access sale and sire profiles as well as Rating reports on the PM site.

Harrisburg list should be available shortly in addition to the Canadian Open sale in London, Ontario. Others to follow when available from Lexington, Indiana, and the Ohio Buckeye.

Pricing for Ratings reports remains the same as last year. Lexington and Harrisburg are $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, New York breds etc. Other sales are $250. Sale profiles are $50 per sale.

Top Two Year Old Performance Horse Of The Year

There are several breeds of horses that earn money through racing including Standardbreds, Thoroughbreds, Quarter Horses and Arabians. Which breed had the highest earning two year old in 2017 and what do the top two year olds of 2017 have in common in their pedigrees ? The answers may surprise you.

Fly Baby Fly is a Quarter Horse filly who made $1,585,000 last year. The next best was also a filly but a Thoroughbred one called Caledonia Road who made $1,229,000 with most of her money in one of her three starts as winner of a Breeders Cup race. Good Magic was the top Thoroughbred colt last year with $1,216,000 again due primarily to his Breeders Cup win. The Standardbred fillies, Youaremycandygirl ($943K) a pacer, and the trotter Manchego ($910K), were both Breeders Crown winners. Eagle Jazz, a Quarter Horse gelding comes next with $900K then the Standardbred colts Lost In Time (687K) on the pace and trotter Fiftydallarbill $458K.

The pedigrees of these big winners are remarkably consistent with respect to the pattern of success for most performance horses - Outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally as we promote through Pedigree Matching and in fact six of the eight are double/double pedigrees with the other two very close. In addition there is another pattern that appears significant in that seven of the eight are by sires whose sire line is maternally inbred in the dams. Here are the important aspects of their pedigrees.

Fly Baby Fly - She is by the current top sire in the racing Quarter Horse world called One Famous Eagle and with a classic pedigree match. The sire has Beduino maternally (a Nearco TB line) and Dash For Cash ( Three Bars line most common in QH breeding and also a TB line). The dam Higher Fire is by Walk Thru Fire by a son of Dash For Cash with a dam by Beduino. The third dam is also by Dash For Cash. The second dam is another thoroughbred line through Raise A Native. If you read my previous blog on the Kentucky Derby you will remember the significance of having both Raise A Native and Nearco maternal lines in top pedigrees. Both the sire and the dam have both in this pedigree so that combination is not unique to thoroughbreds. This is also a double/double pedigree in that the sire of One Famous Eagle has a dam linebred to the Three Bars line making One Famous Eagle double inbred maternally to that line.

Caledonia Road - Her sire Quality Road is a great grandson of Mr Prospector (Raise A Native) and is inbred maternally to the Nearco line and specifically to Northern Dancer. Quality Road's second dam is by a son of Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector. Her dam, Come A Callin, is a Northern Dancer line by Dixie Union and the second and third dams are also Northern Dancer - Nearco line.. She is also inbred maternally to Native Dancer. As we saw in the Kentucky Derby winner Justify this maternal crossing of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector is a powerful combination.

Good Magic - Like Caledonia Road his sire Curlin is through Mr Prospector and Curlin's dam is also a Northern Dancer line. The dam of Good Magic is by a grandson of Northern Dancer and the third dam is by a son of Northern Dancer and the dam is also inbred to Raise A Native. Same magical combination.

Eagle Jazz is by One Dashing Eagle, the top son of his famous sire, One Famous Eagle, and with a pedigree that brings back memories of my own close experience with Quarter Horse pedigrees. You can read about my son Charles' first purchase of a QH called One Famous Glass, with an almost identical pedigree to One Dashing Eagle, both selling in the same year in the Oklahoma sale. One Dashing Eagle earned over $2 millon racing in California and Charles had to be content with winning the Quarter Horse of The Year Award in Canada as a three year old and making just over $200K. As was the case in Fly Baby Fly the key ingredients are Beduino and Dash For Cash across the pedigree maternally and also we find a third dam through Raise A Native.

The standardbred trotter Manchego was written about in my previous blog article on her owner John Fielding. She has a double/double pedigree as does her colt counterpart Fiftydallarbill. That colt is by Swan For All, sire of World Champion Hannelore Hanover. He too is a double/double since the dam Cr Dixie Chick returns all four of her principal lines to the maternal lines of Swan For All and his sire Andover Hall.

The top Standardbred pacing filly Youaremycandygirl is yet another double/double. Her sire American Ideal is Matts Scooter - Albatross maternally and both of these lines are in the dam Sweet Lady Jane. American Ideal's sire is Western Ideal who is Abercombie (Adios line) - Meadow Skipper maternally and we find both lines also in Sweet Baby Jane.

Lost in Time is from the first crop of A Rocknroll Dance, a No Nukes line sire with a dam that is linebred to Meadow Skipper through his sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. His dam, Summer Mystery is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella and he has a third dam through a son of Albatross. There is also an Abercrombie return to the maternal lines of the sire of A Rocknroll Dance.

These are examples of three different racing breeds whose champions all have pedigrees that follow Pedigree Matching principles.

I dont want to leave out the Arabians, who do not race at two, but one of the top Arabs last year was aptly named Quick And Rich. He is by TH Richie, a sire whose dam combines the Morafic and Nazeer sire lines. The dam of Quick And Rich is a Morafic line sire as is the third dam, and the second dam is through Nazeer. Just another great pedigree match.

Similar Sires - Similar Profiles

One of the most important things you can do when choosing a sire is to create the profile of what works with respect to the mares that produce their top performers. An article on Standardbred Canada caught my eye because it dealt with a three year old colt by Pet Rock who has won his first three starts. The profile for his sire is predictable based on the profile of Rock N Roll Heaven, a sire with an almost identical pedigree.

Both sires have maternal lines of Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella). Mares with these sire lines are prime candidates for these sires but for some reason Rock N Roll Heaven seems to also favor mares with Big Towner maternally. Seven of his top 10 show this connection. That would indicate to me that Pet Rock would show likewise and although his offspring are just three year olds to date it appears to be a key for his success. I was interested in finding out if  Larrys Petrock, the subject of the article, fit this profile - his third dam is in fact by Big Towner. The profile for Pet Rock shows 5 of his top 10 with this connection.

While not all of the offspring of these two similar sires have Big Towner maternally that feature is something that cannot be ignored if not entirely explainable. Most of the others show combinations of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella as expected.

Picking a sire is not that difficult, just do your homework with respect to the profiles of the sires in which you are interested

Stallion Review - 2017

The breeding of Standardbreds in North America, based on the number of yearlings, continues to be in decline. A big part of the problem in recent years has been the big drop in Ontario and New Jersey breedings, both crippled by Government policies that hurt the industry. While both jurisdictions, along with Quebec, are recovering somewhat, the impact on the stallion population there and elsewhere continues to present problems for the future.

In 2017 alone we saw 139 stallions retired from breeding compared to the 96 that quit the ranks in 2016. This is offset somewhat by the meager 10 new stallions listed to date for 2018 breeding in addition to the 62 that may have first crop foals in 2018.

The number of stallions with yearlings registered to date in 2017 stood at 449 and many of them had just a handful of foals including 32 with just one foal registered. The number of yearlings in North America last year overall dropped to another 50 year low of 7234, with 4167 pacers and 3067 trotters, and all indications are that the drop will continue in the 2017 crop. The immediate effect is on the yearling sales where we are seeing reduced consignments and sale consolidations. This has a temporary good side in the form of increased sale averages but considering that the breeders have struggled with lower that cost sales in the past it is like a 100% increase going from 1 to 2 on a scale of 10.

The shortage of yearlings ultimately results in a shortage of racehorses, and a reduction in racing opportunities and purses as tracks struggle to maintain their market share. Track closures are inevitable as we have seen recently in Illinois. Even the biggest tracks are not immune since they are dependent on the "farm" system of smaller tracks for the development of race horses and the trainers and caregivers related to them.

Add to this an almost total absence of interest on the part of the two organizations responsible for the breed in doing anything positive to turn around the decline in their base. The USTA and Standardbred Canada continue to bury their heads in the sand claiming that they need to increase the bet and the purses as a first priority. Meanwhile the breeders that remain continue to struggle and pay ever increasing dues to these so-called breeders Associations getting little ground level support in return.

Here on Prince Edward Island we are blessed to have an active industry association to fill the gaps left by a delinquent national organization. Supported by local government at all levels of the industry, racing on PEI has a strong rural base with an active matinee track program that gives small breeders and younger people the opportunity to learn about, and grow their interest in, harness racing. While we have also seen the demise of several of our larger breeding farms in recent years the number of mares bred has stabilized and the number of small breeders has increased somewhat. Our yearling sale set an all time record average with a substantial 34% increase of the previous year record and the accolades should go out to the breeders accordingly and to the many volunteers that are key to our continued success.

Solutions are elusive to the problem. Increased promotion and assistance in the form of education and basic farm gate services are basic building blocks to encourage new breeders. A switch to broodmare residency requirements as the basis for regional stakes eligibility would open up a new market for struggling breeders to board mares. Breeders awards as a percentage of earnings are already in place in several jurisdictions but should be universally available. Broadening the ownership base and level of interest through initiatives like The Stable is also a positive development that should be encouraged at the regional level.

I am sure that readers have their own suggestions for ways to support the successful breeding of Standardbreds. After all the future of the breed in North America is at stake and leaving the problem to the next generation is not an option - there may not be another generation.

John Fielding - Breeding Champions

John Fielding is a breeder and owner of both Standardbreds and Thoroughbreds and has had great success with both breeds. His two year old TB filly Rushing Fall just won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly one week after his co-owned two year old trotting filly Manchego won the Breeders Crown for standardbreds. While they are breeds apart their pedigrees share a common pattern, the Double/Double.

He also co-owns the TB colt Catholic Boy who was fourth in the Breeders Cup Turf and a former Hambletonian winner in Pinkman. They too have the double/double pattern that has produced so many of the best in standardbreds and now, thanks to Fielding, is coming into prominence in thoroughbred breeding too, an approach that goes against the establishment thinking in T-breds that minimizes inbreeding of any kind. The double/double is based on maternal inbreeding.

View previous blog article on the Double/Double for more information on what to look for.

Visit by Nikolaus Matzka of Austria

Here is an article by Nikolaus Matzka on his visit to Prince Edward island. Please forgive his English but I am sure you will get the drift of his story.

First Crop Sires - Part 2

Trixton and E L Titan

These two sons of Muscle Hill are from a full sister and a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall and are by a Valley Victory line sire.  Cantab Hall is by a Valley Victory line sire and is also from a full sister in blood to the Hall boys. That makes these stallions easy to figure out since the profile for Cantab Hall is well established. There will be some differences due to the influence of the maternal lines of Muscle Hill whose dam is line bred to Stars Pride but the expected profile remains essentially the same as for Cantab Hall whose best 20 have the following characteristics.

1. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Speedy Crown, a son and/or an Arndon line. (17)

2. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Stars Pride or to Noble Victory line that also have Speedy Crown or a son or an Arndon line maternally. (2)

3. Mares with no Speedy Crown maternally (1)

15 of the top 20 by Cantab Hall have a maternal line through Stars Pride, a son or the Super Bowl line. Since Muscle Hill is linebred maternally to Stars Pride you can expect the Stars Pride influence on the success of Trixton and E L Titan to be even more pronounced with more Stars Pride line mares than is the case for Cantab Hall where the balance in the top 20 is 12 to 8 in favour of Valley Victory or Pine Chip line mares. There may even be more mares that succeed with no Speedy Crown maternally although these are understandably rare.

Based on the above there are quite a few possibilities in the Lexington, Harrisburg and Forest City sales and my top choices are as follows.

Trixton

Cheap Tricks - Harrisburg #99 - 093 - 1.51.4

Miss Trixton - Lexington  #38 - 110 - 1.51.0

E L Titan

Checkmate Titan - Harrisburg #673 - 076 - 1.52.4
Djokover - Lexington #141 - 091 - 1.50.0
Lefkada - Forest City #99 - 084 - 1.52.2

First Crop Sires

First Crop Sires in 2017

This year's yearling sales feature the first yearlings by some stellar racehorses. Captaintreacherous and Trixton are the ones most people are looking forward to buying, if they can afford them that is. In addition to Captaintreacherous the pacing yearlings will also have first offerings from other sons of Somebeachsomewhere such as Sunshine Beach, and from great performers like Sweet Lou. The trotting sires joining Trixton as first timers include other sons of Muscle Hill like E L Titan,  plus Father Patrick, Royalty For Life, and Uncle Peter.

Established sires have all shown, through their sire profiles, the type of mare with which they succeed. Even the second crop sires such as A Rocknroll Dance and Archangel have developed a pattern of success that can now be used to separate the few with a reasonable chance of success from the many that do not. But how do you know what kind of mares the first crop sires will succeed with?  The answer most likely is to be found in the profiles of similar sires, especially those with similar maternal lines.

The maternal lines of Captaintreacherous are Artsplace and Nihilator and he has a very strong maternal family that includes successful and would be sires such as Art Major, Real Artist, Perfect Art, Panspacificflight, World Of Rocknroll, Beachtrea and Wake Up Peter, in addition to several world champion performers on the track.

On the surface this appears to be a cant-miss sire but there are some question marks. In addition to World of Rocknroll, from a full sister to the dam of Captaintreacherous, there is Kenneth J who has the same maternal combination of Artsplace and Nihilator. Both have horses of racing age and neither has so far shown any great or consistent siring ability. Kenneth J's best from 247 of racing age is Murder She Wrote with $192K made and he has now left the North America stallion ranks. Even in failure, however, we can pick up some useful information. Of his 8 winners of over $100K five are from mares by sons of Abercrombie or Artsplace, and two others have Abercrombie or a son maternally. The lone exception is from a Jennas Beach Boy mare that is both line bred and inbred to the Meadow Skipper line. This inbreeding to the Meadow Skipper line occurs in all eight of Kenneth J's best and features a maternal line mare by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line as one or both of the inbred lines.

World Of Rocknroll also has eight winners of over $100K and although the Abercrombie connection is not as prominent with five such mares, the Meadow Skipper connection through mares line bred or inbred is also present in all eight.

Looking at the broader context of sires with Artsplace dams we find a strikingly similar situation especially with regard to the presence of Albatross in the dams of the best performers. There are 23 such sires with foals of racing age and the best in terms of top performers is Western Terror with a success rate of 18.2%. The overall success rate for sires with Artsplace dams, however, is just 10.2% and considerably shy of the 15% level for "just average" sires. Artsplace was a 24.4% sire and is 19.6% as a broodmare sire but those stats do not necessarily carry on to the next generation. Other current sires with Artsplace dams and several crops racing include Canyon Wind (13.4%),  Well Said (12.1%), Rock N Roll Heaven (11.3%), Metropolitan (11.7%), If I Can Dream (9.4%), Artistic Fella (9.1%), Big Bad John (5.4%), P Forty Seven (7.2%), Vintage Master (2.6%), Kenneth J (5.5%), World Of Rocknroll (6.7%).

None of these sires, however, are by the great Somebeachsomewhere and that may make a difference but then again maybe it will not. His first two sons with progeny racing are So Surreal and Net Ten Eom. So Surreal was a fast but unsound son of the great Artsplace mare Must See, dam of Well Said. He has one decent one from his first crop of 52 two year olds that has made just over $85K in Azreal As It Gets and true to form this one is from a mare linebred to Meadow Skipper. Net Ten Eom is from an equally well respected Artsplace mare in Glowing Report, but like So Surreal was unsound as a racehorse and is struggling in his first crop of 72 with the best earning just $14,560 so far. His profile also is showing a preference for mares line bred or inbred to Meadow Skipper.

There is an old theory first written about in the original Care And Training of the Trotter And Pacer published by the USTA. In the chapter on breeding the author, James C Harrison, wrote "All of the foundation sires of the breed were relatively short bred maternally in the sense that none of the female families that produced them ever established lasting maternal families of their own"  Does this mean that stallions from top quality mares such as Must See and Glowing Report, are doomed to failure?  The family of Somebeachsomewhere is nowhere to be found in the top 300 maternal families. His maternal line goes back to Rosa (1868) and it took 100 years before Lil Miss Thompson was born and subsequently produced the first $100K winner , Jambooger by Albatross, in 1974. Researching the descendents of Lil Miss Thompson shows just 38 winners of over $100K before Somebeachsomewhere came along. The best one was Giveittoemstraight ($613K) from a 3/4 sister to the second dam of Somebeachsomewhere.

If I was buying a yearling by Captaintreacherous it looks like I should focus on the mares line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line that have Albatross and Abercrombie maternally through sons or daughters. That still leaves you with a lot to choose from. In Harrisburg my top pick would be Flameproof Hanover 124 - 1.48.2, and in Lexington it would be the filly Treacherous Trails 129 - 1.48.1.

Buy One Get One Free

No - you wont see this at one of the yearling sales. Buy one - get one free refers to a special offer from Pedigree Matching that will not only increase your chances of buying a champion at this year's yearling sales but will teach you how to make correct purchase decisions based on pedigree.

Buy a PM yearling sale report for any of the remaining sales at Forest City, Hoosier Classic or Harrisburg and you will receive a complimentary one year Guru level subscription to the PM Online website. That is a saving of $200 on your report purchase price of $250 for Forest City or Hoosier. For Harrisburg buyers who purchase a full sale report for $750 we will give you two additional free one year subscriptions that are transferable as gifts for friends or acquaintances. If you already have a PM Online account we will extend it for one year for free.

Sale reports for Harrisburg, Forest City and the Hoosier Classic are now available. The cost of the reports is insignificant compared to the cost of buying and training a yearling with an incorrect pedigree and a low percentage chance of being a top performer.

Email to norman@pedigreematching.com for details and sign up for a free trial of PM Online.

There are 60 two year olds that went through the yearling sales last year and have now made over $100,000 to date. 54 (90%) of them were on the PM recommended list last year including the top 15 and 29 of the top 30. There were a lot of high priced yearlings not on the 2015 list that have not raced and none of the buyers knew they were making a risky investment. For as little as $250 for a PM list they could have saved themselves thousands of dollars and a lot of wasted time looking at yearlings that had no real chance based on their pedigree.

Yearling Ratings

PEDIGREE MATCHING GLOBETROTTER

PRESENTS

THE 2016 YEARLING RATINGS

Breaking News -

Another grand slam of 2YO NY Championship winners
Tequila Monday - Rated 96 - 1.48.0, sold at Harrisburg for $40,000
Funknwaffles - Rated 81 - 1.49.4, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Devious Man - Rated 48 - 1.54.2, sold at Harrisburg for $62,000
Barn Bella - Rated 62 - 1.54.0, sold at Morrisville

A grand slam at The Ontario Grassroots Championships for PM rated winners.
Tymal Peacemaker - Rated 72 - 1.49.3, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Magical Steph - Rated 97 - 1.53.2, sold at Harrisburg for $50,000
Forever Liza - Rated 105 - 1.50.1, sold at Lexington for $65,000
Arsenic - Rated 85 - 1.51.0, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000

World Record
Downbytheseaside sets world record 1.50.0h - PM Rated at 91 - 1.49 in Lexington.

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250

Yearlings by the top sires in North America are rated for pedigree and performance potential including all yearlings at all major sale venues.

The tables in the reports identify all rated yearlings for sale and rank them according to a Performance Rating (PR) based on the earnings and speed in their immediate family. An estimate is also given for three year old record on a mile track as part of the rating. The PR number is used to prioritize the inspection process for yearlings that can be expected to be top performers based on pedigree. It is very possible that a yearling with a rating in the 60-80s can turn out better than any of the top rated yearlings as a result of conformation and other factors such as something special in the pedigree that cannot be quantified. A PR of 60 for pacers and 45 for trotters is usually the minimum required to produce a performer capable of earning $100K lifetime. The maximum possible is 150.

Many of the top rated yearlings are full or half brothers to top performers and as such will command premium prices. Full siblings to great horses have a one in seven chance of being as good or better. The risk / reward ratio is very high considering the price you have to pay unless the conformation is outstanding.

In sales such as Harrisburg and Lexington the yearlings are seeded both on pedigree and conformation. The ratings provided here are based strictly on pedigree and should be adjusted based on conformation accordingly. A suggested conformation rating of + or – 50 points should be applied. Deweycheatumnhowe was rated as 78 - 51.3 when sold as a yearling, the 37^th pick in Kentucky. A +40 on conformation would have put him among the top 10. Similarily Somebeachsomewhere rated 83 -  49.2 (56^th) but his conformation put him amongst the best pacers in the same sale.

The top earning trotter to date from the sales in 2015 is What The Hill rated at 077 – 1.52.3 and selling for $65,000 in Lexington sale, the top pacer to date is Beyond Delight with a rating of 077 – 1.51.3 sold for $50,000 in the Harrisburg sale. This demonstrates the need for close inspection since these two must have been exceptional physical individuals to make up for their relatively modest ratings. Indeed many of the yearlings from last year with ratings over 100 have so far not shown up to race - you can find out why in the following excerpts from my book Queen Among Queens.

INTRODUCTION

The horse racing world is full of pedigree theories, beliefs, old wives tales and opinions when it comes to making the most important decisions that breeders or buyers must make – What to breed and what to buy with respect to pedigree. The success or failure of an investment in a race-horse hinges on these crucial decisions and a wrong decision can be at the least very expensive.

One fact that the reader should be aware of is that the pedigree of the horse, once chosen and delivered in the form of a foal, cannot be changed. The breeder can change the environment within which the foal is raised using best practices, the buyer can retain the best trainer available and protect his investment in other ways. The end result, however, if the pedigree is incorrect, is that best practices in breeding and ownership cannot reverse a bad stallion choice, making that decision the most important one a breeder can make, and the buyer recognize.

A breeder has limited opportunity to make correct stallion decisions for each mare since after several failed matings the damage to the mare and to the breeders reputation is essentially done and the future success of both is compromised. Success is the result of all of the confident decisions you make. Confidence comes from knowing the facts and being able to sort out fact from fiction.

Another fact that is indisputable is that less than 5% of the foals produced in North America will pay for themselves over their lifetime based on the ability to earn $100,000 or more. Such a return on investment is clearly inadequate to sustain the interest in both breeding and buying standardbreds. It is little wonder that we see that the number of industry participants is shrinking.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to improve your percentages.

If, as someone once said, the pedigree is only 18% of what makes a great horse is true, then also consider the fact that it is the first 18% and if it is incorrect the other 82% is a waste of everyone’s time, effort and money. The most important percentage in the purchase or breeding of a top performer is the first 18%, the correct pedigree.

In the words of John Wallace, compiler of the first Standardbred Register  “ It is in no spirit of banter or bravado that I invite criticism in a gentlemanly and courteous way. I am just as liable to be wrong as other men, and when wrong it is for my own good as well as for the public, that I should be set right.”

I welcome your comments and suggestions and wish you well in your future purchases.

Norman Hall

Pedigree Matching

BUYING A YEARLING

There are many horses that have high speed but make little or no money.  Similarly there are many horses that judging by their parents should be world champions but are complete failures on the track and in the breeding shed. An examination of the pedigree will allow you to avoid such horses and focus on the ones with true earnings potential. Pedigrees can be presented in several ways and indeed can also be interpreted in different ways. Most people who attend harness racing are probably familiar with wagering on the races and the variety of ways there are to handicap the horses and try to pick the winners. Evaluating pedigrees is much the same process. Numbers, statistics and patterns are what you look at and the relative importance you put on these in combination is a very individual thing.

The pedigree page in a typical sales catalog is much like the page in a race program only the time lines are extended back several generations. Instead of racelines you are looking at bloodlines with performance numbers attached which show the speed and earnings of individuals in the family. At the top of the catalog page is the pedigree tree that typically lists the first three generations of the ancestors. Quite often, however, it is important to dig deeper into the family tree to look for pedigree patterns that may exist but for now let us look at what we can see on the page.

Catalogs vary in form and content and additional information usually provided includes the order of sale or hip number, consignor, sex, birth date, an owners statement and stakes engagements if any. While all of this additional information is needed in making a final purchase decision we must first concentrate on the most important facts presented, how fast and how much money. Due to space limitations it is not always possible to show every individual in the immediate family, in fact most catalog pages are of interest as much for what you don’t see as for what is printed on the page. Not all sales companies provide data on the number of previous foals especially the ones that did not race.

Sales pages feature what is called “BLACK TYPE” where the horses that have gone fast, made money or won a stake race are shown in bold capital letters. There is a difference, though, between one black typed individual and another. To be eligible for such prominence a horse has to have a record of 2:00 or better, have made $100,000 or more lifetime, or has won a minor stake race anywhere in North America. These are modest standards indeed in today’s market and badly in need of revision. Clearly it is very easy to be blinded by the black type at first glance. A closer look can reveal the true value of the horse in question. One way to do this is to assign a value to the pedigree based on a rating scale that takes into consideration the speed and earnings in the family just as some trainers use a similar point scale to rate the individual on conformation.

Before going through such calculations, however, which could take some considerable time for a catalog with several hundred horses, let us look to see if there are other ways in which we can confidently screen the list down to a more manageable number.

We will deal with what is perhaps the most important screening tool, the correct pedigree, later but there are other factors that are commonly used to reduce the number of horses to be physically inspected? Here are some of the most common.

1. Previous production of the dam
2. Racing or breeding jurisdiction
3. Consignor reputation
4. Birth month
5. Colour
6. Patterns of success
7. The Golden Cross
8. The flavour of the day

There are likely other such factors but do any of them have any merit ?

Previous Production of the Dam

In some cases the horse for sale is a first foal. This is a situation that has stirred much debate. If you do a statistical analysis of first foals you will find a surprisingly large percentage turn out to be the best of the mare’s lifetime production. You can verify this by taking any random number of pages of the USTA Sires and Dams book and doing the math. There is indeed a bias in favour of first foals but it is largely influenced by first foal colts – not fillies.

First foals tend to be smaller than average and fillies smaller still, was one veterinarians explanation for this bias against first foal fillies. Factors that seemed to exclude fillies from the risk inherent in their birthright are early foaling dates and mothers that themselves showed early speed. All of this, however, is strictly conjecture based on random impression and, in the absence of a study that shows the facts, is not the sort of thing on which to shorten the list early. If at the end of your analysis of all factors you have to choose between a first foal filly and one that is from a dam that has already produced something then it may become important to the final decision.

In the case of a mare that has already produced there are a number of things to watch for. First of all are all of the previous foals identified in some way? If they are not on the page you can get this information from other industry sources. It is important to know since there is another bias at work in the breeding industry and that is foal order based on how many foals the mare has already produced. Just as there appears to be a success bias towards early foals in birth order there also appears to be a failure bias towards later foals. Again you can test this out by looking at the production of mares with long breeding records and you will see that after the sixth foal there is a definite drop in success rate in producing significant performers.

Before you start putting lines through the catalog pages of late birth order foals, however, you should be aware that Gallo Blue Chip, one of the winningest pacers of all time was a 10th foal and there are others such as Grinfromeartoear who was an 11th foal or even Muscles Yankee who was a 7th foal and might have been eliminated on a six foal rule.

As a rule of thumb, rather than a rule based on fact, however, the use of birth order as a screening tool can dramatically reduce the number of horses that you end up looking at. You should look at the exceptions to see why they might have beaten the apparent bias they face. Sometimes it is a case of the mare finally getting bred to the right stallion, or the mare shows a high percentage of successful previous foals. Foal order decisions without caveats are fine provided you are prepared to miss out on the odd great horse.

Racing or breeding jurisdiction

Whether buying yearlings or broodmares there is clearly a need to have an objective in mind with respect to where you want to race or breed. It is important for long term success to have a strategy that allows you to be competitive within your means. There are opportunities in every sale that allow you to do this.

In the larger yearling sales you will find horses from several jurisdictions and it is a relatively simple process to eliminate those that don’t fit your racing objectives. The same can be said for the sex and gait of the yearling since there are selective shoppers who are only interested in trotting fillies or pacing colts.

Buying yearlings to compete at the highest level usually means paying premium prices if you rely strictly on the face value of the pedigree page. There are, however, individuals in every sale that fit your objectives and your pocket book that you may miss out on by being too selective on what may be considered non critical factors.

Consignor reputation

This is another subjective screening tool that can see you missing out on good opportunities. It is clearly an important consideration since consignors are very conscious of their successes and not shy in making them known. The issue, however, goes beyond just having some successful previous consignments. Many of the yearlings are consigned through agents and you never get to know much about the actual breeder or the farm where the yearling was raised. The larger farms can be assumed to be operating with best practices but how about the smaller breeders? To the extent it is possible it is a worthwhile exercise to find out the facts ahead of the sale either through a farm visit or a conversation with someone who has been there.

Birth month

This is another of those controversial issues that pops up in the trade magazines when someone does a random survey and finds another bias that may or may not be significant. Because of the racing environment in North America, with its emphasis on big purse, early stakes for two year olds, there is a general concern regarding foaling date. It is based on possible maturity issues for foals born late in the season from mid May on. There are many ways to look at the results of various studies that have been done and there are so many factors involved other than the date of birth that no clear rule is possible to identify with confidence. One thing is sure, however, and that is such situations can present bargain opportunities when the right horse comes along with the “wrong” birth date.

Colour

Like foaling date, the colour of the yearling is the stuff of “old wives tales” when it comes to making a purchase. You either like a certain colour or you don’t but there is no significant bias that I am aware of other than the old saw about chestnuts and white feet, that is worthy of comment or consideration. Since both chestnuts and white feet are rapidly being bred out of the gene pool there is little to fear from a color bias and certainly little use for it as a screening tool.

Patterns Of Success

A Pattern of Success can be as simple as the position in the pedigree tree of certain ancestors or as complicated as counting up the number of times the pedigree traces back to some obscure ancestor that you consider important. You will hear horsemen talk about Speedy Crown being 3x4 in a pedigree or Adios 4x5 with the numbers referring to the generation where the individual occurs in a generational pedigree chart. Such patterns often have significance but are by no means failsafe or consistent from sire to sire.

In fact when you get familiar with pedigrees you will find that, just as in handicapping the races, the patterns of success inevitably have exceptions. It is important to remember, however, that success in owning Standardbreds, like all other sports, is a game of percentages and those who play the percentages in their favour will be the ones to succeed.

To play the percentages you have to know them. One key measuring stick to use in assessing pedigrees is the percentage of performers by a sire that earn $100,000 or more. Typically a successful sire will average 15% or better. Within that statistic, however, are certain matings with a much higher chance of success resulting in what the industry calls a “golden cross”. Close analysis of this golden cross information shows, however, that such statistics can be misleading as we shall see.

A yearling is clearly much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed every sire has a profile, or pattern, in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

The Golden Cross

It is a favorite saying of many knowledgeable breeders that “the best sires of yesterday are the best broodmare sires of today”. This makes eminently good sense since it is a natural extension of a similar vein in the phrase “the best race horses make the best sires”. There are, of course, rare exceptions but again the percentages of breeding favor those who follow these mantras in general but there is a caveat.

The broodmare sire, alone, does not make the mare any more than the sire, alone, can make a top performer. Nor is it wise to assume that the sire needs only a top broodmare sire to work with, as the followers of the “golden cross” would have us believe.

Occasionally you will see top performers by a sire that are so much better than any others by the same sire or that have the same sire – broodmare sire combination. Such is very definitely the case for Gallo Blue Chip.

Gallo Blue Chip earned almost $4.3 million and is the richest performer from an Albatross mare and this makes Magical Mike, when crossed with Albatross mares, the sire with the highest average earnings per performer at $90,000 on the USTA golden cross list.

There are, however, 82 horses of racing age, other than Gallo Blue Chip, with the Magical Mike – Albatross cross that collectively have made an average of $40,000. Indeed of the ones on the list as of this writing only eleven have made over $100,000 for a percentage of 13.2% versus the average for all sires with Albatross mares of 18.9%. Clearly Gallo Blue Chip was a unique individual but what is it in his pedigree that makes him so?

The key lies in the combination of sire lines that make up the full pedigree of Camatross, the dam of Gallo Blue Chip. The sire profile of Magical Mike shows that the presence of Albatross is indeed a common feature in his top performers but there are other sire lines that combine with Albatross to complete the pattern of success for Magical Mike.

Gallo Blue Chip has a second dam by Bye Bye Byrd and, apart from his five full brothers and sisters, is the only one of the 84 by Magical Mike from Albatross mares that is bred that way. There are three others that have second dams by sons of Bye Bye Byrd but they did nothing special. Gallo Blue Chip had a unique pedigree that fitted into the general profile of success of his sire but at the same time his dam was one of a kind among the Albatross mares bred to Magical Mike.

By now we are getting a sense of how important the broodmare as a total package is and how the sire is only part, although an important part, of any one mare. The Standardbred of today is truly a “sum” of its parts and not just “some” of its parts. A yearling or broodmare is much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed, as has already been noted, and cannot be over emphasized, every sire has a profile in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

Flavour Of The Day

Who is the hot sire this year? It is amazing how fickle yearling buyers are in their pursuit of a champion and indeed how naïve they are in thinking that because a certain sire has had one very good, perhaps outstanding, performer that his offspring this year at the sales will be the ones to buy.

Buying anything based on such a rationale is both expensive and very often futile. Buying a yearling or breeding a mare based on the attractiveness of a sire alone is not enough. If all there was to buying a yearling was selecting a fashionable sire then why do we need a full catalog page listing the pedigree and accomplishments of the family?

Screening factors such as the ones discussed have one obvious flaw and that is the possibility that there is a another Gallo Blue Chip among the yearlings that have been rejected by their use before checking out the one thing that really matters – the correctness or otherwise of the pedigree. Many of the factors used by buyers to justify their purchases have no real rationale founded in fact and are merely impressions drawn from a cursory look at the information listed on the catalog page.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to make the confident decisions needed to improve your percentages.

The most important percentage in my mind, however, is the first 18%, the right pedigree.

The only factor that can be used with confidence is the correctness of the pedigree – does it fit the stallion’s profile - the proven or predicted pattern of success?

It is a relatively easy process to find out once you have learned how to do your homework. In today’s world of computers, high-speed communications and the Internet, we have a wealth of information upon which to make better, smarter, more confident decisions. Homework has never been easier and failing to do yours guarantees failed decisions.

PEDIGREE AND CONFORMATION

In any decision on breeding it is important to distinguish between the characteristics you can see, the physical, from those you cannot, the metaphysical. The former are straightforward and include the many aspects of what is called conformation. It is an established practice in breeding to breed away from perceived faults that you can see in an animal such as large or small size, short legs, long pasterns, and even coat color by going to a sire that offers the opposite in the hope that the problem will be bred out of the offspring or in some cases averaged out...

An important consideration in gaited breeds such as trotters and pacers is of course the ability to trot or pace with a certain degree of ease and efficiency of motion. You might even include disposition or manners, which are attributes that are visually evident although not strictly physical in nature.

The metaphysical side of breeding is not as controllable since it involves both the mental and internal workings of the horse, factors that are perhaps more kindred to the “genotype” rather than the physical type. The desire to compete and win is, to my mind, an inherited trait that is metaphysical in nature. Intelligence and willingness to learn are other metaphysical attributes that can occur sporadically in the offspring of any one sire and dam.

In many ways the ultimate breed type for the performance horse has the components of a fast car. You want the best possible structure (conformation) with the least amount of drag or resistance (gait) and then you need the most powerful motor you can put under the hood (heart and lung function). A successful pedigree is one that recognizes the contributions of both the sire and the dam in providing these components.

From the sires (fathers) come many of the physical and conformation attributes of their offspring as demonstrated by the racing prowess of the sires involved. Speed, manners, conformation and gait are essential characteristics in a top sire in today’s world along with a demonstrated ability to win at the top levels of the sport

From the dams (mothers), in addition to complementing the contribution of the sire with respect to conformation, it would appear, based on my own and other research into maternal pedigrees, that there may be a mysterious genetic component we can call “heart” that lies dormant until it finds a matching component in the maternal lines of the sire. Finding and using this genetic key can be the difference between success and failure as a breeder or buyer of a top performer and the pedigree is the only road map we have to help us in that search.

Siring success is predictable based on identifying the principal sire lines at work in the dam and breeding to sires that carry the same maternal connections. This appears to occur regardless of the sex of the offspring. It is, therefore, possible to predict which mares are most suitable for which sires regardless of the names of the sires involved but based strictly on which maternal lines they carry.

BREEDING OR BUYING THE BEST

It seems to make sense that breeding the best to the best could result in producing the best. Not everyone, however, probably 99.9% of us, is able to own the “best” mares or can either access or afford the “best” sires. Such a proposal then is not only impractical it is also not grounded in fact. Now everyone is entitled to their opinion but opinion alone is not sufficient. It is fact that counts.

The results of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best are reflected in the overall lack of success by the breeders in North America in producing fewer than 5% of their foals to make enough money to pay for themselves over their racing life. We can do better. We must do better if we want to still have people interested in buying and racing horses. 5% is not an attractive return on investment in today's world.

TAKING THE ADVICE OF TRAINERS

I am a great fan of the great thoroughbred breeder Tesio and also of Marg Neal, a famous Canadian pedigree researcher, who was quoted in Hoofbeats as follows –

“There are a great many people out there today that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework”

“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change. I like to see a mare that is inbred, and a sire that is not.”

I can confirm the wisdom of Marg Neal since it is my own experience that the vast majority of breeders and buyers of Standardbred horses have little knowledge or interest in the “pedigree” beyond the first generation. It is seen to be something to be read, as a page in a catalog, circled, marked and ultimately discarded. More often than not the circles and marks are the result of popular name recognition or association rather than reflecting any understanding of the significance of the individual horses involved. This is particularly true of trainers in general who tend to approach pedigrees with the blinkers on. A client of mine once passed up on the opportunity to buy Bettors Delight because his trainer advised him that “all Cams Card Sharks are lame” – clearly not a true or objective statement to make. It is, however, typical of the kind of advice that owners will be faced with. The ability to sort out truth from fiction and keep an open mind is key to any purchase and trainers, albeit very good at managing horses, are not automatically so blessed.

FULL BROTHERS AND SISTERS TO GREAT HORSES

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus but it looks a lot like a lottery when it comes to producing a million dollar winner, even a $500,000 winner.

Albatross was the first of 13 foals from Voodoo Hanover and was the best by far of the 9 foals by Meadow Skipper. He is not alone, however, in being the only million dollar winner from any particular mare. In all of North American standardbred history there have been only 11 mares that have two or more in that category.

The first million dollar winner was the trotter Fresh Yankee, bought for $900 as a yearling by Duncan Macdonald of Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, and who was driven to her record by Joe O'Brien of Prince Edward Island. The first mare to produce two such individuals was Spiked Byrdie with Division Street in 1980 and Silver Almahurst in 1988. She also has the record of being the first mare to produce two $500,000 winners. There have been only 136 mares that have produced multiple $500,000 winners.

Production of million dollar winners took a jump to 16 in the 1982 foal crop from the previous year's record of 6. It would be ten more years before the 1991 crop managed 18 and another 8 years till the current high for any one crop year was set in 1999 with 26.

What does all this mean? Clearly the odds of getting one of these superior performers appears lottery like although the odds at 1 in 1235 (390 millionaires from 482,000 horses of racing age since 1960) are much better than the one in 30 million chance of typical large lottery wins here in Canada.

Many have speculated on the reasons why we have horses like Albatross and the failure of full siblings. Clearly we are not dealing with absolutes when breeding horses. As correctly noted by others there is too much opportunity for "luck" to intervene in the long road from conception to racing success or failure. Tesio, recognized as one of the greatest of all time horse breeders, was convinced that if you had the perfect match you would get, at best, one in four such breedings to result in a champion. Albatross was one of nine. On the other hand Lady Hathaway was 2 for 7 with full siblings, Rich N Elegant was 1 in 5 with Western Hanover and 3 in 5 when you consider $500,000 winners.

My own pet theory on the failure of siblings is what I call "Murphy's Law of Great Expectations" which seems to apply to situations where the first one of a series of full siblings is the best one. Then the trainers take over and train the subsequent ones with great expectations and run them into the ground trying to meet those expectations.

Whatever the reason, we are dealing with a percentage game as in all sports and whoever plays the percentages best wins the prize in the long run. Doing your homework on sire or yearling selection is one way to improve the percentages in your favour - 25% is much more attractive than the 4-5% that luck gives you and I'd happily take 1 in 9 if there was another Albatross among them.

A friend of mine has won several decent sized lottery prizes while I have seldom won more than a free ticket and the occasional $5. The difference? He researches the frequency and patterns of successful numbers and buys his tickets accordingly. Even in a lottery you can improve your odds if you want to take the time to do your homework. The same applies to handicapping the horse races. Then again you can sit back, play the guessing game and get what fate allows.

There is one very simple way to improve your percentages in buying successful standardbreds and that is to buy yearlings that are “outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally” and especially those whose dams are similarly bred. A review of the top performers by all current sires shows that 100 % show maternal inbreeding to a significant individual in the 3^rd or 4^th generation and over 85% are outcrossed on sireline.

Percentages – Patterns – Profiles.      Know them – Recognize Them – Buy A Winner

2016 Yearling Sales

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250