Breeders Crown and the Double Double

It is becoming increasingly clear that if you want a world record holder or a Breeders Crown contender your chances are greatly increased if you have the Double/Double pattern in the pedigree of the yearlings you buy, particularily with trotters.

In Lexington several world records were set with Homicide Hunter, Six Pack, Plunge Blue Chip and Iceattraction all having double/double pedigrees.

In the eliminations of the Breeders Crown at Pocono five of the ten winners were double/double and a couple of others were very close to the pattern. They included pacer Tall Drink Hanover and trotters Champagne Jane, Woodside Charm, Smart As Hill and the undefeated Gimpanzee, who is yet another top trotter produced by my client Order By Stable from his small but select broodmare band in New Jersey.

Stefan Balaszi of Order By Stable asked me several years ago to review his mares, which numbered close to 20 at the time, since he had to that point been unsuccessful in producing anything really special. After selling several mares and buying a couple of replacements, and with my assistance with breeding suggestions the Order By Stable yearlings are now in high demand and for good reason. He now has the top three year old in Atlanta, a Hambletonian winner, and the top two year old filly in Gimpanzee, unbeaten in eight starts. Another Order By table bred BC contender named Kings County has qualified for the two year old colt final.

In Harrisburg this year there are just 35 yearlings of the 876 yearlings in Book 1 with the ultimate pattern of success, 17 pacers and 18 trotters. Compare that percentage with the 50% of recent world records and Breeders Crown elimination winners and you can see what I mean by your chances being greatly increased. I expect the three year old elimination winners will continue that trend.

Double/double pedigrees are not hard to spot in a three generation pedigree if you can recognize the sire lines. Read my previous blogs on the Double/Double for assistance.

Harrisburg is your last chance this year to buy a potential champion.  Ratings for Harrisburg are available by contacting me directly at norman@pedigreematching.com including the list of DD
special yearlings.

North America Standardbred Yearlings in 2018

The number of yearlings registered in North America continues to drop although there are signs that the trend may be bottoming out. The total to date is 7236 and just 36 lower than the 2016 crop. Interestingly the numbers would have been much lower but for an upward tick in trotting yearlings from 3095 in 2016 to 3177 in 2017. Pacing yearlings dropped from 4177 to 4059 as the number of pacing sires at stud with yearlings in 2018 showed a dramatic drop of 57 retirees from the 2017 list. Trotting stallion numbers also dropped with 48 fewer represented in the current crop.

New sires of consequence this year are minimal with the most prominent ones being Artspeak and Hes Watching on the pacing side and trotting yearlings by Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealin who are likely to be the new trotting sires of interest at the yearling sales.

Artspeak stood at Hanover Shoe Farms but has moved to Ontario even before his first crop sells. His pedigree is similar to that of Well Said who also has been relocated from Hanover and nows stands in Ohio. Perhaps the relatively poor performance of Well Said, with a below average success rate of around 13% in terms of producing $100K winners, has something to do with the Artspeak move. His first crop totals just 80 foals. In previous blog articles I wrote about Well Said and his prospects after his first crop. The article is entitled Well Bred - Well Dead and predicted his apparent early demise as a popular sire. I also wrote a recent article on sires with Artsplace dams that documents the surprising facts regarding the lack of success in general for such sires. That being said, as I am fond of also saying that every sire can produce something special if given the right opportunity, Well Said did produce a million dollar winner in Control The Moment, now at stud in Ontario, plus another half dozen that made over $500K. His lack of consistency and low number of top stakes winners, however, have doomed him to be a regional sire. Control The Moment is from an Abercrombie line dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper through No Nukes and/or the Albatross line and as such shares the profile of both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play in general. Lost In Time, the second best by Well Said follows that same profile pattern. The other aspect of his profile is success with Cam Fella line dams that are inbred to Adios/Abercrombie (Katie Said) or inbred maternally to Albatross/No Nukes lines (My Hero Ron).

Hes Watching is by American Ideal and with a maternal combination of Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper lines. The Meadow Skipper line sire in this case is Jennas Beach Boy, a rarity in the dams of current sires as is Real Desire, the Abercrombie line present. There is one other current sire in Heston Blue Chip that is a son of American Ideal and has foals of racing age. His first crop is just qualifying and already has produced one of the fastest qualifying two year olds in Zero Tolerance 2,Q1.53.3m. Heston Blue Chips dam is also a Meadow Skipper/Abercrombie line combination albeit through different sons of these sires. The pedigree of Zero Tolerance shows his dam is a full sister to the great mare Rainbow Blue so perhaps that has as much to do with his early showing. The pedigree is a double return of Adios/Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella lines to the dam of Heston Blue Chip and a very good pedigree match accordingly, however, and something to watch for in the possibilities by Hes Watching. I recommended a breeding to my friends at Saulsbrook Farm for their mare Heroine Hanover who is by Somebeachsomewhere and from the Hall Of Fame mare Httie by Abercrombie. The match is a double/double and similar mares with SBSW and Abercrombie lines would be high on my list at the yearling sales.

I will look at the prospects for Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealing in my next article.

Stallion Review - 2017

The breeding of Standardbreds in North America, based on the number of yearlings, continues to be in decline. A big part of the problem in recent years has been the big drop in Ontario and New Jersey breedings, both crippled by Government policies that hurt the industry. While both jurisdictions, along with Quebec, are recovering somewhat, the impact on the stallion population there and elsewhere continues to present problems for the future.

In 2017 alone we saw 139 stallions retired from breeding compared to the 96 that quit the ranks in 2016. This is offset somewhat by the meager 10 new stallions listed to date for 2018 breeding in addition to the 62 that may have first crop foals in 2018.

The number of stallions with yearlings registered to date in 2017 stood at 449 and many of them had just a handful of foals including 32 with just one foal registered. The number of yearlings in North America last year overall dropped to another 50 year low of 7234, with 4167 pacers and 3067 trotters, and all indications are that the drop will continue in the 2017 crop. The immediate effect is on the yearling sales where we are seeing reduced consignments and sale consolidations. This has a temporary good side in the form of increased sale averages but considering that the breeders have struggled with lower that cost sales in the past it is like a 100% increase going from 1 to 2 on a scale of 10.

The shortage of yearlings ultimately results in a shortage of racehorses, and a reduction in racing opportunities and purses as tracks struggle to maintain their market share. Track closures are inevitable as we have seen recently in Illinois. Even the biggest tracks are not immune since they are dependent on the "farm" system of smaller tracks for the development of race horses and the trainers and caregivers related to them.

Add to this an almost total absence of interest on the part of the two organizations responsible for the breed in doing anything positive to turn around the decline in their base. The USTA and Standardbred Canada continue to bury their heads in the sand claiming that they need to increase the bet and the purses as a first priority. Meanwhile the breeders that remain continue to struggle and pay ever increasing dues to these so-called breeders Associations getting little ground level support in return.

Here on Prince Edward Island we are blessed to have an active industry association to fill the gaps left by a delinquent national organization. Supported by local government at all levels of the industry, racing on PEI has a strong rural base with an active matinee track program that gives small breeders and younger people the opportunity to learn about, and grow their interest in, harness racing. While we have also seen the demise of several of our larger breeding farms in recent years the number of mares bred has stabilized and the number of small breeders has increased somewhat. Our yearling sale set an all time record average with a substantial 34% increase of the previous year record and the accolades should go out to the breeders accordingly and to the many volunteers that are key to our continued success.

Solutions are elusive to the problem. Increased promotion and assistance in the form of education and basic farm gate services are basic building blocks to encourage new breeders. A switch to broodmare residency requirements as the basis for regional stakes eligibility would open up a new market for struggling breeders to board mares. Breeders awards as a percentage of earnings are already in place in several jurisdictions but should be universally available. Broadening the ownership base and level of interest through initiatives like The Stable is also a positive development that should be encouraged at the regional level.

I am sure that readers have their own suggestions for ways to support the successful breeding of Standardbreds. After all the future of the breed in North America is at stake and leaving the problem to the next generation is not an option - there may not be another generation.

Buy One Get One Free

No - you wont see this at one of the yearling sales. Buy one - get one free refers to a special offer from Pedigree Matching that will not only increase your chances of buying a champion at this year's yearling sales but will teach you how to make correct purchase decisions based on pedigree.

Buy a PM yearling sale report for any of the remaining sales at Forest City, Hoosier Classic or Harrisburg and you will receive a complimentary one year Guru level subscription to the PM Online website. That is a saving of $200 on your report purchase price of $250 for Forest City or Hoosier. For Harrisburg buyers who purchase a full sale report for $750 we will give you two additional free one year subscriptions that are transferable as gifts for friends or acquaintances. If you already have a PM Online account we will extend it for one year for free.

Sale reports for Harrisburg, Forest City and the Hoosier Classic are now available. The cost of the reports is insignificant compared to the cost of buying and training a yearling with an incorrect pedigree and a low percentage chance of being a top performer.

Email to norman@pedigreematching.com for details and sign up for a free trial of PM Online.

There are 60 two year olds that went through the yearling sales last year and have now made over $100,000 to date. 54 (90%) of them were on the PM recommended list last year including the top 15 and 29 of the top 30. There were a lot of high priced yearlings not on the 2015 list that have not raced and none of the buyers knew they were making a risky investment. For as little as $250 for a PM list they could have saved themselves thousands of dollars and a lot of wasted time looking at yearlings that had no real chance based on their pedigree.

Yearling Ratings

PEDIGREE MATCHING GLOBETROTTER

PRESENTS

THE 2016 YEARLING RATINGS

Breaking News -

Another grand slam of 2YO NY Championship winners
Tequila Monday - Rated 96 - 1.48.0, sold at Harrisburg for $40,000
Funknwaffles - Rated 81 - 1.49.4, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Devious Man - Rated 48 - 1.54.2, sold at Harrisburg for $62,000
Barn Bella - Rated 62 - 1.54.0, sold at Morrisville

A grand slam at The Ontario Grassroots Championships for PM rated winners.
Tymal Peacemaker - Rated 72 - 1.49.3, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Magical Steph - Rated 97 - 1.53.2, sold at Harrisburg for $50,000
Forever Liza - Rated 105 - 1.50.1, sold at Lexington for $65,000
Arsenic - Rated 85 - 1.51.0, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000

World Record
Downbytheseaside sets world record 1.50.0h - PM Rated at 91 - 1.49 in Lexington.

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250

Yearlings by the top sires in North America are rated for pedigree and performance potential including all yearlings at all major sale venues.

The tables in the reports identify all rated yearlings for sale and rank them according to a Performance Rating (PR) based on the earnings and speed in their immediate family. An estimate is also given for three year old record on a mile track as part of the rating. The PR number is used to prioritize the inspection process for yearlings that can be expected to be top performers based on pedigree. It is very possible that a yearling with a rating in the 60-80s can turn out better than any of the top rated yearlings as a result of conformation and other factors such as something special in the pedigree that cannot be quantified. A PR of 60 for pacers and 45 for trotters is usually the minimum required to produce a performer capable of earning $100K lifetime. The maximum possible is 150.

Many of the top rated yearlings are full or half brothers to top performers and as such will command premium prices. Full siblings to great horses have a one in seven chance of being as good or better. The risk / reward ratio is very high considering the price you have to pay unless the conformation is outstanding.

In sales such as Harrisburg and Lexington the yearlings are seeded both on pedigree and conformation. The ratings provided here are based strictly on pedigree and should be adjusted based on conformation accordingly. A suggested conformation rating of + or – 50 points should be applied. Deweycheatumnhowe was rated as 78 - 51.3 when sold as a yearling, the 37^th pick in Kentucky. A +40 on conformation would have put him among the top 10. Similarily Somebeachsomewhere rated 83 -  49.2 (56^th) but his conformation put him amongst the best pacers in the same sale.

The top earning trotter to date from the sales in 2015 is What The Hill rated at 077 – 1.52.3 and selling for $65,000 in Lexington sale, the top pacer to date is Beyond Delight with a rating of 077 – 1.51.3 sold for $50,000 in the Harrisburg sale. This demonstrates the need for close inspection since these two must have been exceptional physical individuals to make up for their relatively modest ratings. Indeed many of the yearlings from last year with ratings over 100 have so far not shown up to race - you can find out why in the following excerpts from my book Queen Among Queens.

INTRODUCTION

The horse racing world is full of pedigree theories, beliefs, old wives tales and opinions when it comes to making the most important decisions that breeders or buyers must make – What to breed and what to buy with respect to pedigree. The success or failure of an investment in a race-horse hinges on these crucial decisions and a wrong decision can be at the least very expensive.

One fact that the reader should be aware of is that the pedigree of the horse, once chosen and delivered in the form of a foal, cannot be changed. The breeder can change the environment within which the foal is raised using best practices, the buyer can retain the best trainer available and protect his investment in other ways. The end result, however, if the pedigree is incorrect, is that best practices in breeding and ownership cannot reverse a bad stallion choice, making that decision the most important one a breeder can make, and the buyer recognize.

A breeder has limited opportunity to make correct stallion decisions for each mare since after several failed matings the damage to the mare and to the breeders reputation is essentially done and the future success of both is compromised. Success is the result of all of the confident decisions you make. Confidence comes from knowing the facts and being able to sort out fact from fiction.

Another fact that is indisputable is that less than 5% of the foals produced in North America will pay for themselves over their lifetime based on the ability to earn $100,000 or more. Such a return on investment is clearly inadequate to sustain the interest in both breeding and buying standardbreds. It is little wonder that we see that the number of industry participants is shrinking.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to improve your percentages.

If, as someone once said, the pedigree is only 18% of what makes a great horse is true, then also consider the fact that it is the first 18% and if it is incorrect the other 82% is a waste of everyone’s time, effort and money. The most important percentage in the purchase or breeding of a top performer is the first 18%, the correct pedigree.

In the words of John Wallace, compiler of the first Standardbred Register  “ It is in no spirit of banter or bravado that I invite criticism in a gentlemanly and courteous way. I am just as liable to be wrong as other men, and when wrong it is for my own good as well as for the public, that I should be set right.”

I welcome your comments and suggestions and wish you well in your future purchases.

Norman Hall

Pedigree Matching

BUYING A YEARLING

There are many horses that have high speed but make little or no money.  Similarly there are many horses that judging by their parents should be world champions but are complete failures on the track and in the breeding shed. An examination of the pedigree will allow you to avoid such horses and focus on the ones with true earnings potential. Pedigrees can be presented in several ways and indeed can also be interpreted in different ways. Most people who attend harness racing are probably familiar with wagering on the races and the variety of ways there are to handicap the horses and try to pick the winners. Evaluating pedigrees is much the same process. Numbers, statistics and patterns are what you look at and the relative importance you put on these in combination is a very individual thing.

The pedigree page in a typical sales catalog is much like the page in a race program only the time lines are extended back several generations. Instead of racelines you are looking at bloodlines with performance numbers attached which show the speed and earnings of individuals in the family. At the top of the catalog page is the pedigree tree that typically lists the first three generations of the ancestors. Quite often, however, it is important to dig deeper into the family tree to look for pedigree patterns that may exist but for now let us look at what we can see on the page.

Catalogs vary in form and content and additional information usually provided includes the order of sale or hip number, consignor, sex, birth date, an owners statement and stakes engagements if any. While all of this additional information is needed in making a final purchase decision we must first concentrate on the most important facts presented, how fast and how much money. Due to space limitations it is not always possible to show every individual in the immediate family, in fact most catalog pages are of interest as much for what you don’t see as for what is printed on the page. Not all sales companies provide data on the number of previous foals especially the ones that did not race.

Sales pages feature what is called “BLACK TYPE” where the horses that have gone fast, made money or won a stake race are shown in bold capital letters. There is a difference, though, between one black typed individual and another. To be eligible for such prominence a horse has to have a record of 2:00 or better, have made $100,000 or more lifetime, or has won a minor stake race anywhere in North America. These are modest standards indeed in today’s market and badly in need of revision. Clearly it is very easy to be blinded by the black type at first glance. A closer look can reveal the true value of the horse in question. One way to do this is to assign a value to the pedigree based on a rating scale that takes into consideration the speed and earnings in the family just as some trainers use a similar point scale to rate the individual on conformation.

Before going through such calculations, however, which could take some considerable time for a catalog with several hundred horses, let us look to see if there are other ways in which we can confidently screen the list down to a more manageable number.

We will deal with what is perhaps the most important screening tool, the correct pedigree, later but there are other factors that are commonly used to reduce the number of horses to be physically inspected? Here are some of the most common.

1. Previous production of the dam
2. Racing or breeding jurisdiction
3. Consignor reputation
4. Birth month
5. Colour
6. Patterns of success
7. The Golden Cross
8. The flavour of the day

There are likely other such factors but do any of them have any merit ?

Previous Production of the Dam

In some cases the horse for sale is a first foal. This is a situation that has stirred much debate. If you do a statistical analysis of first foals you will find a surprisingly large percentage turn out to be the best of the mare’s lifetime production. You can verify this by taking any random number of pages of the USTA Sires and Dams book and doing the math. There is indeed a bias in favour of first foals but it is largely influenced by first foal colts – not fillies.

First foals tend to be smaller than average and fillies smaller still, was one veterinarians explanation for this bias against first foal fillies. Factors that seemed to exclude fillies from the risk inherent in their birthright are early foaling dates and mothers that themselves showed early speed. All of this, however, is strictly conjecture based on random impression and, in the absence of a study that shows the facts, is not the sort of thing on which to shorten the list early. If at the end of your analysis of all factors you have to choose between a first foal filly and one that is from a dam that has already produced something then it may become important to the final decision.

In the case of a mare that has already produced there are a number of things to watch for. First of all are all of the previous foals identified in some way? If they are not on the page you can get this information from other industry sources. It is important to know since there is another bias at work in the breeding industry and that is foal order based on how many foals the mare has already produced. Just as there appears to be a success bias towards early foals in birth order there also appears to be a failure bias towards later foals. Again you can test this out by looking at the production of mares with long breeding records and you will see that after the sixth foal there is a definite drop in success rate in producing significant performers.

Before you start putting lines through the catalog pages of late birth order foals, however, you should be aware that Gallo Blue Chip, one of the winningest pacers of all time was a 10th foal and there are others such as Grinfromeartoear who was an 11th foal or even Muscles Yankee who was a 7th foal and might have been eliminated on a six foal rule.

As a rule of thumb, rather than a rule based on fact, however, the use of birth order as a screening tool can dramatically reduce the number of horses that you end up looking at. You should look at the exceptions to see why they might have beaten the apparent bias they face. Sometimes it is a case of the mare finally getting bred to the right stallion, or the mare shows a high percentage of successful previous foals. Foal order decisions without caveats are fine provided you are prepared to miss out on the odd great horse.

Racing or breeding jurisdiction

Whether buying yearlings or broodmares there is clearly a need to have an objective in mind with respect to where you want to race or breed. It is important for long term success to have a strategy that allows you to be competitive within your means. There are opportunities in every sale that allow you to do this.

In the larger yearling sales you will find horses from several jurisdictions and it is a relatively simple process to eliminate those that don’t fit your racing objectives. The same can be said for the sex and gait of the yearling since there are selective shoppers who are only interested in trotting fillies or pacing colts.

Buying yearlings to compete at the highest level usually means paying premium prices if you rely strictly on the face value of the pedigree page. There are, however, individuals in every sale that fit your objectives and your pocket book that you may miss out on by being too selective on what may be considered non critical factors.

Consignor reputation

This is another subjective screening tool that can see you missing out on good opportunities. It is clearly an important consideration since consignors are very conscious of their successes and not shy in making them known. The issue, however, goes beyond just having some successful previous consignments. Many of the yearlings are consigned through agents and you never get to know much about the actual breeder or the farm where the yearling was raised. The larger farms can be assumed to be operating with best practices but how about the smaller breeders? To the extent it is possible it is a worthwhile exercise to find out the facts ahead of the sale either through a farm visit or a conversation with someone who has been there.

Birth month

This is another of those controversial issues that pops up in the trade magazines when someone does a random survey and finds another bias that may or may not be significant. Because of the racing environment in North America, with its emphasis on big purse, early stakes for two year olds, there is a general concern regarding foaling date. It is based on possible maturity issues for foals born late in the season from mid May on. There are many ways to look at the results of various studies that have been done and there are so many factors involved other than the date of birth that no clear rule is possible to identify with confidence. One thing is sure, however, and that is such situations can present bargain opportunities when the right horse comes along with the “wrong” birth date.

Colour

Like foaling date, the colour of the yearling is the stuff of “old wives tales” when it comes to making a purchase. You either like a certain colour or you don’t but there is no significant bias that I am aware of other than the old saw about chestnuts and white feet, that is worthy of comment or consideration. Since both chestnuts and white feet are rapidly being bred out of the gene pool there is little to fear from a color bias and certainly little use for it as a screening tool.

Patterns Of Success

A Pattern of Success can be as simple as the position in the pedigree tree of certain ancestors or as complicated as counting up the number of times the pedigree traces back to some obscure ancestor that you consider important. You will hear horsemen talk about Speedy Crown being 3x4 in a pedigree or Adios 4x5 with the numbers referring to the generation where the individual occurs in a generational pedigree chart. Such patterns often have significance but are by no means failsafe or consistent from sire to sire.

In fact when you get familiar with pedigrees you will find that, just as in handicapping the races, the patterns of success inevitably have exceptions. It is important to remember, however, that success in owning Standardbreds, like all other sports, is a game of percentages and those who play the percentages in their favour will be the ones to succeed.

To play the percentages you have to know them. One key measuring stick to use in assessing pedigrees is the percentage of performers by a sire that earn $100,000 or more. Typically a successful sire will average 15% or better. Within that statistic, however, are certain matings with a much higher chance of success resulting in what the industry calls a “golden cross”. Close analysis of this golden cross information shows, however, that such statistics can be misleading as we shall see.

A yearling is clearly much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed every sire has a profile, or pattern, in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

The Golden Cross

It is a favorite saying of many knowledgeable breeders that “the best sires of yesterday are the best broodmare sires of today”. This makes eminently good sense since it is a natural extension of a similar vein in the phrase “the best race horses make the best sires”. There are, of course, rare exceptions but again the percentages of breeding favor those who follow these mantras in general but there is a caveat.

The broodmare sire, alone, does not make the mare any more than the sire, alone, can make a top performer. Nor is it wise to assume that the sire needs only a top broodmare sire to work with, as the followers of the “golden cross” would have us believe.

Occasionally you will see top performers by a sire that are so much better than any others by the same sire or that have the same sire – broodmare sire combination. Such is very definitely the case for Gallo Blue Chip.

Gallo Blue Chip earned almost $4.3 million and is the richest performer from an Albatross mare and this makes Magical Mike, when crossed with Albatross mares, the sire with the highest average earnings per performer at $90,000 on the USTA golden cross list.

There are, however, 82 horses of racing age, other than Gallo Blue Chip, with the Magical Mike – Albatross cross that collectively have made an average of $40,000. Indeed of the ones on the list as of this writing only eleven have made over $100,000 for a percentage of 13.2% versus the average for all sires with Albatross mares of 18.9%. Clearly Gallo Blue Chip was a unique individual but what is it in his pedigree that makes him so?

The key lies in the combination of sire lines that make up the full pedigree of Camatross, the dam of Gallo Blue Chip. The sire profile of Magical Mike shows that the presence of Albatross is indeed a common feature in his top performers but there are other sire lines that combine with Albatross to complete the pattern of success for Magical Mike.

Gallo Blue Chip has a second dam by Bye Bye Byrd and, apart from his five full brothers and sisters, is the only one of the 84 by Magical Mike from Albatross mares that is bred that way. There are three others that have second dams by sons of Bye Bye Byrd but they did nothing special. Gallo Blue Chip had a unique pedigree that fitted into the general profile of success of his sire but at the same time his dam was one of a kind among the Albatross mares bred to Magical Mike.

By now we are getting a sense of how important the broodmare as a total package is and how the sire is only part, although an important part, of any one mare. The Standardbred of today is truly a “sum” of its parts and not just “some” of its parts. A yearling or broodmare is much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed, as has already been noted, and cannot be over emphasized, every sire has a profile in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

Flavour Of The Day

Who is the hot sire this year? It is amazing how fickle yearling buyers are in their pursuit of a champion and indeed how naïve they are in thinking that because a certain sire has had one very good, perhaps outstanding, performer that his offspring this year at the sales will be the ones to buy.

Buying anything based on such a rationale is both expensive and very often futile. Buying a yearling or breeding a mare based on the attractiveness of a sire alone is not enough. If all there was to buying a yearling was selecting a fashionable sire then why do we need a full catalog page listing the pedigree and accomplishments of the family?

Screening factors such as the ones discussed have one obvious flaw and that is the possibility that there is a another Gallo Blue Chip among the yearlings that have been rejected by their use before checking out the one thing that really matters – the correctness or otherwise of the pedigree. Many of the factors used by buyers to justify their purchases have no real rationale founded in fact and are merely impressions drawn from a cursory look at the information listed on the catalog page.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to make the confident decisions needed to improve your percentages.

The most important percentage in my mind, however, is the first 18%, the right pedigree.

The only factor that can be used with confidence is the correctness of the pedigree – does it fit the stallion’s profile - the proven or predicted pattern of success?

It is a relatively easy process to find out once you have learned how to do your homework. In today’s world of computers, high-speed communications and the Internet, we have a wealth of information upon which to make better, smarter, more confident decisions. Homework has never been easier and failing to do yours guarantees failed decisions.

PEDIGREE AND CONFORMATION

In any decision on breeding it is important to distinguish between the characteristics you can see, the physical, from those you cannot, the metaphysical. The former are straightforward and include the many aspects of what is called conformation. It is an established practice in breeding to breed away from perceived faults that you can see in an animal such as large or small size, short legs, long pasterns, and even coat color by going to a sire that offers the opposite in the hope that the problem will be bred out of the offspring or in some cases averaged out...

An important consideration in gaited breeds such as trotters and pacers is of course the ability to trot or pace with a certain degree of ease and efficiency of motion. You might even include disposition or manners, which are attributes that are visually evident although not strictly physical in nature.

The metaphysical side of breeding is not as controllable since it involves both the mental and internal workings of the horse, factors that are perhaps more kindred to the “genotype” rather than the physical type. The desire to compete and win is, to my mind, an inherited trait that is metaphysical in nature. Intelligence and willingness to learn are other metaphysical attributes that can occur sporadically in the offspring of any one sire and dam.

In many ways the ultimate breed type for the performance horse has the components of a fast car. You want the best possible structure (conformation) with the least amount of drag or resistance (gait) and then you need the most powerful motor you can put under the hood (heart and lung function). A successful pedigree is one that recognizes the contributions of both the sire and the dam in providing these components.

From the sires (fathers) come many of the physical and conformation attributes of their offspring as demonstrated by the racing prowess of the sires involved. Speed, manners, conformation and gait are essential characteristics in a top sire in today’s world along with a demonstrated ability to win at the top levels of the sport

From the dams (mothers), in addition to complementing the contribution of the sire with respect to conformation, it would appear, based on my own and other research into maternal pedigrees, that there may be a mysterious genetic component we can call “heart” that lies dormant until it finds a matching component in the maternal lines of the sire. Finding and using this genetic key can be the difference between success and failure as a breeder or buyer of a top performer and the pedigree is the only road map we have to help us in that search.

Siring success is predictable based on identifying the principal sire lines at work in the dam and breeding to sires that carry the same maternal connections. This appears to occur regardless of the sex of the offspring. It is, therefore, possible to predict which mares are most suitable for which sires regardless of the names of the sires involved but based strictly on which maternal lines they carry.

BREEDING OR BUYING THE BEST

It seems to make sense that breeding the best to the best could result in producing the best. Not everyone, however, probably 99.9% of us, is able to own the “best” mares or can either access or afford the “best” sires. Such a proposal then is not only impractical it is also not grounded in fact. Now everyone is entitled to their opinion but opinion alone is not sufficient. It is fact that counts.

The results of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best are reflected in the overall lack of success by the breeders in North America in producing fewer than 5% of their foals to make enough money to pay for themselves over their racing life. We can do better. We must do better if we want to still have people interested in buying and racing horses. 5% is not an attractive return on investment in today's world.

TAKING THE ADVICE OF TRAINERS

I am a great fan of the great thoroughbred breeder Tesio and also of Marg Neal, a famous Canadian pedigree researcher, who was quoted in Hoofbeats as follows –

“There are a great many people out there today that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework”

“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change. I like to see a mare that is inbred, and a sire that is not.”

I can confirm the wisdom of Marg Neal since it is my own experience that the vast majority of breeders and buyers of Standardbred horses have little knowledge or interest in the “pedigree” beyond the first generation. It is seen to be something to be read, as a page in a catalog, circled, marked and ultimately discarded. More often than not the circles and marks are the result of popular name recognition or association rather than reflecting any understanding of the significance of the individual horses involved. This is particularly true of trainers in general who tend to approach pedigrees with the blinkers on. A client of mine once passed up on the opportunity to buy Bettors Delight because his trainer advised him that “all Cams Card Sharks are lame” – clearly not a true or objective statement to make. It is, however, typical of the kind of advice that owners will be faced with. The ability to sort out truth from fiction and keep an open mind is key to any purchase and trainers, albeit very good at managing horses, are not automatically so blessed.

FULL BROTHERS AND SISTERS TO GREAT HORSES

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus but it looks a lot like a lottery when it comes to producing a million dollar winner, even a $500,000 winner.

Albatross was the first of 13 foals from Voodoo Hanover and was the best by far of the 9 foals by Meadow Skipper. He is not alone, however, in being the only million dollar winner from any particular mare. In all of North American standardbred history there have been only 11 mares that have two or more in that category.

The first million dollar winner was the trotter Fresh Yankee, bought for $900 as a yearling by Duncan Macdonald of Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, and who was driven to her record by Joe O'Brien of Prince Edward Island. The first mare to produce two such individuals was Spiked Byrdie with Division Street in 1980 and Silver Almahurst in 1988. She also has the record of being the first mare to produce two $500,000 winners. There have been only 136 mares that have produced multiple $500,000 winners.

Production of million dollar winners took a jump to 16 in the 1982 foal crop from the previous year's record of 6. It would be ten more years before the 1991 crop managed 18 and another 8 years till the current high for any one crop year was set in 1999 with 26.

What does all this mean? Clearly the odds of getting one of these superior performers appears lottery like although the odds at 1 in 1235 (390 millionaires from 482,000 horses of racing age since 1960) are much better than the one in 30 million chance of typical large lottery wins here in Canada.

Many have speculated on the reasons why we have horses like Albatross and the failure of full siblings. Clearly we are not dealing with absolutes when breeding horses. As correctly noted by others there is too much opportunity for "luck" to intervene in the long road from conception to racing success or failure. Tesio, recognized as one of the greatest of all time horse breeders, was convinced that if you had the perfect match you would get, at best, one in four such breedings to result in a champion. Albatross was one of nine. On the other hand Lady Hathaway was 2 for 7 with full siblings, Rich N Elegant was 1 in 5 with Western Hanover and 3 in 5 when you consider $500,000 winners.

My own pet theory on the failure of siblings is what I call "Murphy's Law of Great Expectations" which seems to apply to situations where the first one of a series of full siblings is the best one. Then the trainers take over and train the subsequent ones with great expectations and run them into the ground trying to meet those expectations.

Whatever the reason, we are dealing with a percentage game as in all sports and whoever plays the percentages best wins the prize in the long run. Doing your homework on sire or yearling selection is one way to improve the percentages in your favour - 25% is much more attractive than the 4-5% that luck gives you and I'd happily take 1 in 9 if there was another Albatross among them.

A friend of mine has won several decent sized lottery prizes while I have seldom won more than a free ticket and the occasional $5. The difference? He researches the frequency and patterns of successful numbers and buys his tickets accordingly. Even in a lottery you can improve your odds if you want to take the time to do your homework. The same applies to handicapping the horse races. Then again you can sit back, play the guessing game and get what fate allows.

There is one very simple way to improve your percentages in buying successful standardbreds and that is to buy yearlings that are “outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally” and especially those whose dams are similarly bred. A review of the top performers by all current sires shows that 100 % show maternal inbreeding to a significant individual in the 3^rd or 4^th generation and over 85% are outcrossed on sireline.

Percentages – Patterns – Profiles.      Know them – Recognize Them – Buy A Winner

Ohio Jug Sale

Little Brown Jug Week starts on Monday 15th and traditionally there has been a small yearling sale to kick off the festivities. This year the sale has increased dramatically in numbers as the benefits of OHIO slots boosts the interest in Ohio breds - the reverse of what has occurred in Ontario and ironically the Ohio experience is based on the now defunct Ontario Slots at Racetracks program.

This sale has never been of much significance serving primarily as an opportunity to get horsemen involved in Jug Week in advance of the big race on the Thursday. There still is not a lot of significance in this sale either and if you take out the 60 head by first crop sire Big Bad John, and the 25 by Ohio's current hot pacing sire Feelin Friskie there is really not a lot of value in the pacing consignment.

The trotters are even more forgettable unless again you are interested in the current top trotting stallion Chip Chip Hooray with 25 yearlings and a new stallion Triumphant Caviar with 24. There is also a handful by Pilgrims Taj who left Ontario after one crop and now has 7 on hand here. I believe he is now in Finland and based on his Ontario racing crop that is probably a blessing, and not necessarily for the Finns.

Big Bad John is by Western Hanover and joins 35 others currently at stud by that sire. His maternal side of Artsplace - Big Towner is not shared by any of them and indeed the only same sire maternally is Mr Saratoga by Million Dollar Cam with a few racing in Ontario. There are other sires that we can use however to construct a profile  including Dragon Again (Abercrombie - Towners Big Guy), Memphis Flash (Big Towner - Abercrombie) and Allamerican Merlin (Big Towner - Abercrombie). Based on the common elements in the dams of their top performers to date here is what I see.

1. Non Meadow Skipper line broodmares that are inbred to the Meadow Skipper line through sons, the Albatross line and the No Nukes line. (43%)
2. Linebred Meadow Skipper mares with an Albatross line 2nd or 3rd dam (35%)
3. Cam Fella line dams with an Adios/Abercrombie line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a dam through Adios (18%)
4. Mares with maternal combinations of Abercrombie and Big Towner (4%)

Big Towner maternally, although not essential, would be considered an asset.

The percentages are the collective results of the top 16 offspring of the comparable sires so give this some priority in your selections. Having said that I must admit there is one colt that I really like that falls under the #4 profile factor. He is called Big Cool John and from a mare by Real Artist, a sire by Artsplace from a Big Towner mare.

As noted the trotters are an indifferent bunch mostly from dams with low percentage crosses. There are always a few gems to sift for like a full sister to a winner of $470K that is however an 11th foal and an interesting Pilgrims Taj called Taj For All.

Canadian Open 2014

This year's version of the Canadian Open, to be held on Sunday 14th, lists just 164 yearlings, a far cry from the previous sales that often topped 300 entries. That was before the Liberal government gutted the breeding industry and the effects of that move are now seen here. Not only is the number down but most of the good mares have obviously been bred to other jusrisdictions so the quality has taken a big drop too. Old standby sires like Camluck, Mach Three and Angus Hall are still there but they are now serving a depleted and weaker mare population. Not that there is any great competition with just a handful of new sires like Big Jim and Manofmanymissions to share the leftovers with.

The pacing yearlings will no doubt be highlighted by the ones in the second crop of Sportswriter who has been the dominant sire of two year olds in the Ontario Sires Stakes. New sires Big Jim and Vintage Master will also get some attention.

Sportswriter has just five in this sale. His sire profile is quickly being established and shows a definite preference for No Nukes line dams as well as those with Big Towner maternally. Not surprising since his maternal lines are Jate Lobell - Big Towner. That group makes up 10 of the top 16. There are five by Cam Fella line dams all of which are linebred to Meadow Skipper. The best one, though, is from a mare by On The Road Again although he too traces through to Most Happy Fella and the dam is the dam of the great Rainbow Blue so is an exception in more ways than one.

Big Jim has 7 entries and you can get a pretty good idea of what to expect there by looking at the best by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin, both sires that share similar maternal lines to Big Jim featuring Big Towner and Albatross. Albatross is a big factor in the mares with 22 of the best 32 by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin having that sire or one of his sons maternally and five of the others showing Big Towner. Overall the best are split 50-50 between Most Happy Fella line dams and non-Meadow Skipper line dams with each of them showing Big Towner in 5 of their top 16.

Vintage Master has five yearlings. He is a virtual copy of his sire Western Ideal (maternal lines of Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper) being a No Nukes line sire with Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper) maternally so you can expect him to like the same kind of mares as his sire. They are in a general category of sires that prefer non Meadow Skipper line dams with the exception of Meadow Skipper linebred dams. In Western Ideal's case the ratio is 12 to 4 for his top 16.

The big news for the trotters will be the first crop of Manofmanymissions, the fast but quirky son of Yankee Glide, who has since left to stand in Ohio. With 13 yearlings his is the second largest group, next to Angus Hall with 14 entries. He has a unique maternal line of Garland Lobell - Super Bowl and there is no active sire with foals racing with that combination. Cantab Hall has a Garland Lobell dam with a Super Bowl son third dam so may offer some clues but the key will clearly be Super Bowl. Sires with Super Bowl or Bonefish second dams invariably do best with Super Bowl line dams or those with second or third dams through Super Bowl. Similar sires include Hard Rock N Roll and Keystone Savage with most of their best ones keying on Super Bowl or Bonefish maternally in addition to Noble Victory lines. The Noble Victory line brings Angus Hall and Balanced Image mares into play especially those with Super Bowl.

I will post the sire profiles for the sires in the Canadian Open in the PM Online library. Tomorrow we will look at the OHIO Jug sale also taking place Monday 15th.

Australia and New Zealand Update

The ANZ data has been updated on PM Online to reflect current performance and new named additions including yearlings.

The two year olds are led by a pair of Art Majors. The top pacing colt is Follow The Stars $251K and top filly is Queen Of Pop $160K. Both were bred in Victoria. Top two year old trotter is Monbet by French sire Love You who extends his global dominance as a sire to yet another country.

The three year olds are led by Bling It On by American Ideal (558K Aud) and Venus Serena by Mach Three (664K Nzd). Im Stately by Majestic Son leads the trotters with 183K.

As in Europe the Anzacs don't race much at 2 and 3 and the purses are not anywhere near those in North America for young horses. They do, however, continue to supply quality aged horses to the US market and could well see a resurgence of that trade in the next few years. North American yearling production continues to slide and the larger farms are getting fewer in number. NA yearlings this year dropped below 8000 for the first time in over 40 years and the drastic reduction in mares bred in Ontario the past two years will make this problem more acute. Where will all the racehorses come from to keep the existing tracks going ?

Forest City Sale

The last major sale of the year will be the Forest City sale in Ontario. The organizers decided to delay this sale to November to see if the situation would be more clear in Ontario by then. Im not sure that is the case and although the Canadian Open sale was up from its disaster last year, the future for breeders in Ontario is still far from clear.

A look at the pedigrees for this years sale shows that old stalwart Camluck still has a lock on the best pedigrees of the sale which does not say a lot for the breeders in Ontario and their sire selection. It always amazes me that breeders can make choices either in total ignorance of the facts or in total denial. This sale is full of yearlings with no chance and as a result there are fewer than 40 of the 300 plus yearlings that have a legitimate chance of success.

Attached are the profiles for the yearlings - you can judge for yourself.

http://www.mediafire.com/download/345xf9fvx9zhc3k/Forest_City_Trotting_Yearling_Profiles.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/mjptrbi5mybbn2i/Forest_City_Pacing_Yearling_Profiles.pdf

Harrisburg - the Mecca of Standardbreds

I cant go to Harrisburg this year since I am slated for cataract surgery but those of you that go there are in for a treat. This is the biggest standardbred auction in the world and it has a worldwide audience. In addition to the over 1000 yearlings there is a mixed sale of epic proportions that features many of the best breeding stock and racehorses in North America. It is definitely a bucket list event and maybe, just maybe, you can pick up a champion while you are there.

Attached are the profiles of the yearlings in Book One of the Harrisburg Black Book. The sale features such great champion stallions as Muscles Yankee, Somebeachsomewhere, Credit Winner, and Art Major as well as several first crop sires that will get a lot of attention.

First crop sires are a guessing game for both breeders and buyers - that is if they do not understand pedigree matching. The fact is that picking the best is not a secret process, nor is it a roll of the dice. If you stick to the principles of outcrossing on sire line and inbreeding maternally you will increase your chances considerably over the average sale goer.

One way to give yourself an edge over the competition is to use stallion profiles to predict which yearlings are correctly matched. Every stallion has a profile for success that is established in its first year crop and never varies. The success of a first year stallion can be predicted based on the profiles of similar stallions that already have offspring racing. This is an established fact that most breeders and buyers do not recognize.

Here are the links to the profiles of the Harrisburg yearlings - happy matching.

http://www.mediafire.com/download/982k761r5wabzs6/Harrisburg_2013_Pacing_Yearling_Profile.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/rra01xhpwxhzacv/Harrisburg_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf

Lexington Trotting Yearlings

The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.

Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.

Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.

The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.

Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.

I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.

The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.

The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here

http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf

Lexington Pacing Yearling Profile

The 2013 Lexington yearling sale will see the first crops of three sires of special interest.

Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.

The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.

The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows

Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)

Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)

If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.

The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.

Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire.  Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.

Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.

Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.

http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei

The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2)  and Margaret Parrish (M2).

You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.

http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens

A Pattern to Watch For

Back in 1998 when we introduced the Pedigree Matching program at Harrisburg I sat down with a successful trainer and discussed pedigrees. He wanted to know what to look for on the pedigree page. He wanted something simple as a golden rule. We ran through some successful pedigrees and it was remarkable that many of the top individuals of the day did indeed show a particular pattern. Using that pattern the trainer has gone on to be one of the top trainers of young horses in North America.

The pedigree pattern he has since followed was indeed simple. Buy yearlings that were crossed maternally on Albatross for pacers and on Speedy Crown for trotters. Fourteen years later that pattern remains valid except it has moved to the maternal lines. Now we see the top performers coming from mares that are bred that way.

Jug winner Michaels Power is a case in point. He is by Camluck, a sire with no Albatross maternally but his dam is inbred 3x3 to Albatross maternally being by Artsplace, whose dam is by Albatross, and with a second dam by a son of Albatross. Captaintreachorous, the top two year old so far this year, is also from an Artsplace mare that. is inbred 3x4 to Albatross. Rocknroll Hanover has seven of his top ten that show a variation of this pattern with second or third dams through Albatross. Rockincam, winner of the Winbak on Jug Day, is another great example.

On the trotting side we have seen last year's Hambletonian winner Broad Bahn whose dam is inbred 3x3 to Speedy Crown. Cantab Hall has a particular liking for such mares and his best is Explosive Matter, also 3x3 to Speedy Crown in his dam.and most of his top ten show a similar pattern.

This pattern shows up best for sires like Camluck and Cantab Hall that have no Albatross or Speedy Crown maternally but also for sires that themselves have either of these individuals doubled up in their own dams such as Majestic Son and his top two year old Murmur Hanover, or Kadabra's top performer Daylon Magician, or Check Me Out by Donato Hanover a sire that also fits the pattern.

Unfortunately such crosses are not evident in the sales catalog due to the restricted pedigree chart but will jump right off the page when you can see a five generation pedigree chart.

Of course a pattern is just a pattern. You still need to have the pedigree content and the conformation to go with it. Dominant maternal crosses are , however, a good way to short list for potential top horses before you get to see them in the flesh.

Attachment: Broad Bahn Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Captaintreacherous Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Michaels Power Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Market Share Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Murmur Hanover Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Rockincam Pedigree.pdf

Harrisburg Yearling Profiles

Here they are - 1200 of the finest yearlings in North America. There is something for everyone in this sale with a broad selection of the best sires in the USA and Canada.

You can access the pedigrees on the Black Book website.

Happy hunting

Attachment: Harrisburg Pacing Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Harrisburg Trotting Yearling Profiles.pdf

Morrisville Sale

The Morrisville sale is a typical regional sale that features yearlings that are not good enough for the major sales in Lexington or Harrisburg. There are 172 yearlings consigned and I could find only 17 that have a chance of paying for themselves over their lifetime.

The sires include Bettors Delight, American Ideal, Credit Winner and Conway Hall but dont expect that any of their progeny in this sale will win the Little Brown Jug or the Hambletonian.

The first crop sires include Big Apple Deli, a name I am sure you are not familiar with and based on the mares he bred you are unlikely to hear any more from. If I Can Dream on the pacing side should have something to offer being a full brother to Western Terror but it seems the breeders have ignored the profile of Western Terror.

Winbak Farms stands several sires in New York and Sand Vic, with 16 yearlings has, next to Cash Hall, the most yearlings in the sale. American Ideal has the most on the pacing side.

Kenneth J was a surprise to me in the reception he received for his first crop but it seems the buyers were right since he has produced nothing special to date. That does not mean he will continue to fire blanks since there are a couple of yearlings here that are worth looking at.

If I was interested in buying something I would look at an Art Major colt called Bismark Blue Chip, a Bettors Delight filly Tarport Belle, and a Cash Hall filly called Nestegg

Attachment: Morrisville Pacing Yearlings.pdf
Attachment: Morrisville Trotting Yearlings.pdf

Indiana Premier Sale

This sale to be held the last week in September has much the same selection as the Hoosier Classic. Another nice group of, for the most part, well matched yearlings by Swan For All in this sale.

Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Indiana Premier Sale.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Indiana Premier Sale.pdf

Hoosier Classic Yearlings

The biggest yearling sale in Indiana is the Hoosier Classic coming up in mid October. There are 330 in the sale but seriously there are only a handful of the sires that could give you a shot at something special.

Sand Shooter is well represented but has been shooting blanks with his first crop as two year olds. Always A Virgin is another sire popular last year with his first offerings but he is still a virgin as far as having a serious stakes contender. Panspacificflight had early success with the colt Flight Elal but has not followed through on that success. Perhaps the buyers can find a good one by first crop sire Total Truth who has 27 yearlings listed. He may have a problem though in finding something in the mares to match up to his somewhat old fashioned maternal line of Walton Hanover - Meadow Skipper. Hi is out of a full sister to Totally Western who is standing in New York. The best one by Totally Western is typical of what you will need to look for as it is from a mare line-bred to Meadow Skipper and doubles that sire back 4x4 to the dam of Totally Western. To the extent you can also find mares that have a Big Towner line that should add to the opportunities. Too bad there is only one yearling from a mare by Keystone Raider. His name is The Simple Truth and he could be one of the best to be truthful.

The big sire in the sale this year, other than perennial favourite Jailhouse Jesse should be first crop sire Swan For All. He has a unique maternal line that is line bred to Baltic Speed. As a son of Andover Hall from a double Speedy Crown line dam he has a great model to follow in Majestic Son who has established his profile as expected that features the following factors:

Non Speedy Crown line mares with Stars Pride and Arnie Almahurst maternally, mares that are line-bred to Speedy Crown, and mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top three fit the first profile factor, his next three fit the second profile factor and the next two his third factor.

Someone has done their homework well in choosing the mares for Swan For All as 16 of the 26 yearlings in this sale are right on the profile and several others you can make a case for in part. I particularly like the colts All For The Crown and Controller. The former has a pedigree that would put him in the upper ranks in a major sale. There are also some very daring pedigrees for some of the fillies such as Swan Life To Live from a Lindy Lane mare bringing that sire 3x2 maternally across the pedigree. It is a filly though and such pedigrees have been known to produce something very special. Swan Princess, from a mare by Valley Victory, is another bold move but I would not ignore her.

 

Attachment: Sire Profile for Majestic Son.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Attachment: Controller Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: All For The Crown Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf

Yearlings by Well Said

The first crop yearlings by Well Said are highly anticipated and the major sales have many on offer but how do you pick out the ones with the best chance of success based on pedigree. As I have noted before, the process is actually quite simple and you can indeed forecast what type of mares Well Said will do best with. First you must find a sire with similar maternal lines that already has foals racing. If you check the Stallion Chooser you will find two such sires, Village Jolt and Western Maverick.

Well Said is by Western Hanover and his maternal line combines Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Matts Scooter (Direct Scooter)

Western Maverick is by Western Hanover and his maternal lines are through Laag (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter

Village Jolt is by Cams Card Shark and his dam is Life Sign (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter. In fact the maternal line of Village Jolt has similarities to that of Well Said that extend back several more generations.

These three sires share a basic profile that calls for:

Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Meadow Skipper line dams with a second dam through Adios or Volomite, or double Meadow Skipper line dams.

Looking at the sire profiles for Village Jolt and Western Maverick (attached) you will find that the top 16 performers for each sire are almost equally distributed between Meadow Skipper line (red) and Non Meadow Skipper line (other than red). In the case of Village Jolt by Cams Card Shark the Meadow Skipper lines are usually through Most Happy Fella other than through Cam Fella, while Western Maverick for the most part preferred mares of any other Meadow Skipper line including the MHF lines through Tyler B and Cam Fella. Well Said can be expected to do likewise.

Looking closer at the profiles you will see that regardless of the sire line of the mare there are two very specific elements in play. 30 of the 32 listed performers have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire and 30 of the 32, not necessarily the same 30, have a 1st to 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam through Abercrombie or Adios (blue) and/or Volomite (green) quite often the Direct Scooter line.

This makes the process very simple. A single statement combining these two elements covers 95% of the top performers. There are always excceptions such as R Lil King with no Meadow Skipper line maternally but in his case the broodmare sire, Armbro Getty, combines both Abercrombie and the Volomite line sire Horton Hanover. Lil Motion has no Adios line but has a direct connection to Sampson Direct, sire of Direct Scooter.While these are exceptions to the general profile there are valid reasons to justify their success based on pedigree. The only other one in the top performers of either sire that falls outside the profile is Magic Maverick with no Adios or Volomite line but his dam is inbred to Good Time and if you can find a Well Said from a similar mare then it obviously cannot be ignored.

You will be surprised to see which of the Well Said yearlings fit or don't fit this profile. That profile for Well Said was clearly established when he went to stud based on the performers by Western Maverick and Village Jolt. Did the breeders guess right ? This time next year you will find out whether breeders guesses win out over informed decisions based on following the profile.

Now I dont want anyone to interpret my remarks as a condemnation of Well Said because of his similar pedigree to two essentially failed sires. The mares that Well Said received are far superior in quality. That in itself does not guarantee success but if there are sufficient of the correct type with respect to profile he will do very well. He is, after all, a superior individual as a racehorse and in his own maternal family.

Attachment: Well Said Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Village Jolt Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Western Maverick Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Village Jolt.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Western Maverick.pdf