North America Standardbred Yearlings in 2018

The number of yearlings registered in North America continues to drop although there are signs that the trend may be bottoming out. The total to date is 7236 and just 36 lower than the 2016 crop. Interestingly the numbers would have been much lower but for an upward tick in trotting yearlings from 3095 in 2016 to 3177 in 2017. Pacing yearlings dropped from 4177 to 4059 as the number of pacing sires at stud with yearlings in 2018 showed a dramatic drop of 57 retirees from the 2017 list. Trotting stallion numbers also dropped with 48 fewer represented in the current crop.

New sires of consequence this year are minimal with the most prominent ones being Artspeak and Hes Watching on the pacing side and trotting yearlings by Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealin who are likely to be the new trotting sires of interest at the yearling sales.

Artspeak stood at Hanover Shoe Farms but has moved to Ontario even before his first crop sells. His pedigree is similar to that of Well Said who also has been relocated from Hanover and nows stands in Ohio. Perhaps the relatively poor performance of Well Said, with a below average success rate of around 13% in terms of producing $100K winners, has something to do with the Artspeak move. His first crop totals just 80 foals. In previous blog articles I wrote about Well Said and his prospects after his first crop. The article is entitled Well Bred - Well Dead and predicted his apparent early demise as a popular sire. I also wrote a recent article on sires with Artsplace dams that documents the surprising facts regarding the lack of success in general for such sires. That being said, as I am fond of also saying that every sire can produce something special if given the right opportunity, Well Said did produce a million dollar winner in Control The Moment, now at stud in Ontario, plus another half dozen that made over $500K. His lack of consistency and low number of top stakes winners, however, have doomed him to be a regional sire. Control The Moment is from an Abercrombie line dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper through No Nukes and/or the Albatross line and as such shares the profile of both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play in general. Lost In Time, the second best by Well Said follows that same profile pattern. The other aspect of his profile is success with Cam Fella line dams that are inbred to Adios/Abercrombie (Katie Said) or inbred maternally to Albatross/No Nukes lines (My Hero Ron).

Hes Watching is by American Ideal and with a maternal combination of Abercrombie and Meadow Skipper lines. The Meadow Skipper line sire in this case is Jennas Beach Boy, a rarity in the dams of current sires as is Real Desire, the Abercrombie line present. There is one other current sire in Heston Blue Chip that is a son of American Ideal and has foals of racing age. His first crop is just qualifying and already has produced one of the fastest qualifying two year olds in Zero Tolerance 2,Q1.53.3m. Heston Blue Chips dam is also a Meadow Skipper/Abercrombie line combination albeit through different sons of these sires. The pedigree of Zero Tolerance shows his dam is a full sister to the great mare Rainbow Blue so perhaps that has as much to do with his early showing. The pedigree is a double return of Adios/Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella lines to the dam of Heston Blue Chip and a very good pedigree match accordingly, however, and something to watch for in the possibilities by Hes Watching. I recommended a breeding to my friends at Saulsbrook Farm for their mare Heroine Hanover who is by Somebeachsomewhere and from the Hall Of Fame mare Httie by Abercrombie. The match is a double/double and similar mares with SBSW and Abercrombie lines would be high on my list at the yearling sales.

I will look at the prospects for Sebastian K and Wheeling N Dealing in my next article.

First Crop Sires - How are they doing

The major sires with first crops racing this year are as follows:

Trotting Sires

Explosive Matter
Federal Flex
Lear Jetta
Muscle Hill
Swan For All
Windsong Espoir

Pacing Sires

Art Official
Artistic Fella
Dali
If I Can Dream
Major In Art
Mister Big
Shadow Play
Well Said

It is always interesting to see if they really do what is expected of them as far as the type of mares they are successful with. It is early yet but as is usually the case first impressions will prove to be lasting ones. Here are the top performers to date:

Explosive Matter

This sire is loaded with Speedy Crown with a Valley Victory top line and a dam that is line bred to Speedy Crown. Past sires with similar pedigrees have been less than successful due to the concentration of Speedy Crown but so far the best by Explosive Matter,  Struck By Lindy, shows how to get around this problem. I discussed her pedigree in an earlier post. Her second dam has the same Valley Victory - Speedy Crown line combination that is present in the dam of Explosive Matter plus a couple of other plusses across the pedigree.

Federal Flex

In an earlier post I discussed this sire as well as a similar sire in Muscle Hill. Both have dams that are line bred to Stars Pride, an unusual circumstance, but there are three previous sires with foals racing that point the way. The mares to look for are either Super Bowl line inbred to Speedy Crown maternally or Noble Victory Line with second dams through Speedy Crown and with Super Bowl maternally. In this care the best by Federal Flex to date, Special Agent Man, is from a Conway Hall (Noble Victory line) mare with a second dam by a Speedy Crown line dam. The third dam is through Super Bowl.

Lear Jetta

This sire has a maternal line with no Speedy Crown. Similar sires breed best to mares with no Speedy Crown or with mares that are either line bred or inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. Abettajetta, his best to date, follows that first pattern with no Speedy Crown in the dam.

Muscle Hill

While Federal Flex has opted for mares with the Noble Victory - Speedy Crown combination in his sire's maternal lines (Muscles Yankee), Muscle Hill seems to prefer the other side of the profile since three of his top four, including his best Hill I Am, are from mares that are Super Bowl line and inbred to Speedy Crown maternally.

Swan For All

With a maternal line that is linebred to Baltic Speed you can expect his best to be from mares that offer Valley Victory - Speedy Crown combinations or mares that have no Speedy Crown at all. Nothing in between. His best to date is Andis Alana from a Yankee Glide (Valley Victory) mare with a second dam by a son of Speedy Crown.

Windsong Espoir

This son of Kadabra has a maternal line of Balanced Image (Noble Victory line) and Speedy Crown. His best to date is Hope For Justice from a mare by Justice Hall (Noble Victory line) and second dam by a son of Speedy Crown

Art Official

This son of Art Major is a bit of a freak with respect to pedigree, He is quite untypical with respect to the other top ones by Art Major. Such things happen. His maternal lines are Falcon Seelster (Bret Hanover line) and Safe Arrival (Volomite line). Bringing back Meadow Skipper into a maternal line such as his is a safe bet and indeed his best two are from mares that are linebred to Meadow Skipper and also have Bret Hanover maternally.

Artistic Fella

With a maternal line of Artsplace (Abercrombie line) and No Nukes (Most Happy Fella line) you could expect mares with Abercrombie - Most Happy Fella line combinations to be his favourite and so it seems so far as Regil Meg is from a mare by Straight Path (Abercrombie) with a second dam by Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella)

Dali

This son of Real Artist has a maternal line similar to several other sires being Matts Scooter - Tyler B (Most Happy Fella line). His best to date Weatherly with 29K makes no sense to me but his next best with 23K made, Blacktree, is right on target with a Most Happy Fella line dam and and a Direct Scooter second dam.

If I Can Dream

This full brother to Western Terror has produced something that so far has seldom existed, a colt with a 3x2 maternal cross. This is a pedigree pattern that shows up in exceptional fillies but seldom in colts. In the case of Forty Five Red, the maternal double is Artsplace 3x2 and it is supported with an additional return of Most Happy Fella maternally.

Major In Art

His maternal line is similar to that of his sire, Art Major, being a Meadow Skipper line - Big Towner combination. Art Major did well with Cam Fella line dams and also with mares that had Big Towner maternally so it is no real surprise that Major In Art's best to date, Major Hangover, is from a mare by No Pan Intended with a second dam by Big Towner.

Mister Big

With a maternal line of Jate Lobell - Cam Fella there are many mares that fit Mister Big including the dam of Crafty Master, his second best performer from a Camluck mare with a No Nukes second dam. His best, however, is a good example of breeding a sire to a mare that brings back the lines in the sire's sire, in this case those of Grinfromeartoear whose maternal lines are  Storm Damage (Bret Hanover) - Meadow Skipper. Such is the case with Falcon Justice, his best to date, from a Bret Hanover line dam by Falcon Seelster with a second dam by Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper)

Shadow Play

I have already discussed this sire's early confimation of the expected profile based on his similarity to Rocknroll Hanover. His best colt to date is Arthur Blue Chip, with an Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross just like many of the best by Rocknroll Hanover.

Well Said

My previous post highlighted the pedigree of Talkative, the best by Well Said to date and a great example of the high percentage way to produce top performers - outcross on sire line and inbreed maternally.

All in all a great group of well matched individuals. Most of them likely bred with little consideration of the sire lines involved but as you can see they truly reflect what Pedigree Matching is all about.

Well Said - Well Dead ?

In an earlier blog on Well Said yearlings I predicted that Well Said would have a difficult time as a sire based on the lack of success for similar sires. I was prepared to cut him some slack based on his exceptional racing career but it seems that early results of his first crop may be proving me right regardless.

To date he has a eleven winners from a first crop of 102 and the best has made just over $60,000. The top one was very predictable. Talkative is from an Artiscape mare with a second dam by Direct Scooter which is a perfect fit for Well Said's maternal lines of Artsplace and Matts Scooter.

The predicted profile for Well Said was for non Meadow Skipper line mares or mares that are line bred to Meadow Skipper with maternal connections to either Abercrombie or Direct Scooter. So far three of the top four are from Abercrombie line dams and the other is a line bred Meadow Skipper dam with an Abercrombie third dam. Just as predicted.

The other nick that was important was to find an Albatross line maternally and the top two have third dams through Albatross.

It is early yet and I hope to see his results improve but unfortunately, as is often the case, the breeders guessed wrong for the most part and the ones that fit the profile better step up soon or this well bred sire will truly be well dead.