Friday, September 21, 2012

A Pattern to Watch For

Back in 1998 when we introduced the Pedigree Matching program at Harrisburg I sat down with a successful trainer and discussed pedigrees. He wanted to know what to look for on the pedigree page. He wanted something simple as a golden rule. We ran through some successful pedigrees and it was remarkable that many of the top individuals of the day did indeed show a particular pattern. Using that pattern the trainer has gone on to be one of the top trainers of young horses in North America.

The pedigree pattern he has since followed was indeed simple. Buy yearlings that were crossed maternally on Albatross for pacers and on Speedy Crown for trotters. Fourteen years later that pattern remains valid except it has moved to the maternal lines. Now we see the top performers coming from mares that are bred that way.

Jug winner Michaels Power is a case in point. He is by Camluck, a sire with no Albatross maternally but his dam is inbred 3x3 to Albatross maternally being by Artsplace, whose dam is by Albatross, and with a second dam by a son of Albatross. Captaintreachorous, the top two year old so far this year, is also from an Artsplace mare that. is inbred 3x4 to Albatross. Rocknroll Hanover has seven of his top ten that show a variation of this pattern with second or third dams through Albatross. Rockincam, winner of the Winbak on Jug Day, is another great example.

On the trotting side we have seen last year's Hambletonian winner Broad Bahn whose dam is inbred 3x3 to Speedy Crown. Cantab Hall has a particular liking for such mares and his best is Explosive Matter, also 3x3 to Speedy Crown in his dam.and most of his top ten show a similar pattern.

This pattern shows up best for sires like Camluck and Cantab Hall that have no Albatross or Speedy Crown maternally but also for sires that themselves have either of these individuals doubled up in their own dams such as Majestic Son and his top two year old Murmur Hanover, or Kadabra's top performer Daylon Magician, or Check Me Out by Donato Hanover a sire that also fits the pattern.

Unfortunately such crosses are not evident in the sales catalog due to the restricted pedigree chart but will jump right off the page when you can see a five generation pedigree chart.

Of course a pattern is just a pattern. You still need to have the pedigree content and the conformation to go with it. Dominant maternal crosses are , however, a good way to short list for potential top horses before you get to see them in the flesh.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Database Update

A database update is available here

Performance has been updated for sires in major sales and the yearlings have been flagged by sale.

To get a list of the yearlings in Harrisburg use the advanced search option in Globetrotter, select UserDefined1 = H. For Lexington use L, Hoosier Classic - HC, Forest City - F, Morrisville - M, Atlantic Classic - AT

The database will be replaced in PedigreeGuru sometime tomorrow.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Harrisburg Yearling Profiles

Here they are - 1200 of the finest yearlings in North America. There is something for everyone in this sale with a broad selection of the best sires in the USA and Canada.

You can access the pedigrees on the Black Book website.

Happy hunting

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Morrisville Sale

The Morrisville sale is a typical regional sale that features yearlings that are not good enough for the major sales in Lexington or Harrisburg. There are 172 yearlings consigned and I could find only 17 that have a chance of paying for themselves over their lifetime.

The sires include Bettors Delight, American Ideal, Credit Winner and Conway Hall but dont expect that any of their progeny in this sale will win the Little Brown Jug or the Hambletonian.

The first crop sires include Big Apple Deli, a name I am sure you are not familiar with and based on the mares he bred you are unlikely to hear any more from. If I Can Dream on the pacing side should have something to offer being a full brother to Western Terror but it seems the breeders have ignored the profile of Western Terror.

Winbak Farms stands several sires in New York and Sand Vic, with 16 yearlings has, next to Cash Hall, the most yearlings in the sale. American Ideal has the most on the pacing side.

Kenneth J was a surprise to me in the reception he received for his first crop but it seems the buyers were right since he has produced nothing special to date. That does not mean he will continue to fire blanks since there are a couple of yearlings here that are worth looking at.

If I was interested in buying something I would look at an Art Major colt called Bismark Blue Chip, a Bettors Delight filly Tarport Belle, and a Cash Hall filly called Nestegg

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Indiana Premier Sale

This sale to be held the last week in September has much the same selection as the Hoosier Classic. Another nice group of, for the most part, well matched yearlings by Swan For All in this sale.

Hoosier Classic Yearlings

The biggest yearling sale in Indiana is the Hoosier Classic coming up in mid October. There are 330 in the sale but seriously there are only a handful of the sires that could give you a shot at something special.

Sand Shooter is well represented but has been shooting blanks with his first crop as two year olds. Always A Virgin is another sire popular last year with his first offerings but he is still a virgin as far as having a serious stakes contender. Panspacificflight had early success with the colt Flight Elal but has not followed through on that success. Perhaps the buyers can find a good one by first crop sire Total Truth who has 27 yearlings listed. He may have a problem though in finding something in the mares to match up to his somewhat old fashioned maternal line of Walton Hanover - Meadow Skipper. Hi is out of a full sister to Totally Western who is standing in New York. The best one by Totally Western is typical of what you will need to look for as it is from a mare line-bred to Meadow Skipper and doubles that sire back 4x4 to the dam of Totally Western. To the extent you can also find mares that have a Big Towner line that should add to the opportunities. Too bad there is only one yearling from a mare by Keystone Raider. His name is The Simple Truth and he could be one of the best to be truthful.

The big sire in the sale this year, other than perennial favourite Jailhouse Jesse should be first crop sire Swan For All. He has a unique maternal line that is line bred to Baltic Speed. As a son of Andover Hall from a double Speedy Crown line dam he has a great model to follow in Majestic Son who has established his profile as expected that features the following factors:

Non Speedy Crown line mares with Stars Pride and Arnie Almahurst maternally, mares that are line-bred to Speedy Crown, and mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top three fit the first profile factor, his next three fit the second profile factor and the next two his third factor.

Someone has done their homework well in choosing the mares for Swan For All as 16 of the 26 yearlings in this sale are right on the profile and several others you can make a case for in part. I particularly like the colts All For The Crown and Controller. The former has a pedigree that would put him in the upper ranks in a major sale. There are also some very daring pedigrees for some of the fillies such as Swan Life To Live from a Lindy Lane mare bringing that sire 3x2 maternally across the pedigree. It is a filly though and such pedigrees have been known to produce something very special. Swan Princess, from a mare by Valley Victory, is another bold move but I would not ignore her.


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Yearlings by Well Said

The first crop yearlings by Well Said are highly anticipated and the major sales have many on offer but how do you pick out the ones with the best chance of success based on pedigree. As I have noted before, the process is actually quite simple and you can indeed forecast what type of mares Well Said will do best with. First you must find a sire with similar maternal lines that already has foals racing. If you check the Stallion Chooser you will find two such sires, Village Jolt and Western Maverick.

Well Said is by Western Hanover and his maternal line combines Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Matts Scooter (Direct Scooter)

Western Maverick is by Western Hanover and his maternal lines are through Laag (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter

Village Jolt is by Cams Card Shark and his dam is Life Sign (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter. In fact the maternal line of Village Jolt has similarities to that of Well Said that extend back several more generations.

These three sires share a basic profile that calls for:

Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Meadow Skipper line dams with a second dam through Adios or Volomite, or double Meadow Skipper line dams.

Looking at the sire profiles for Village Jolt and Western Maverick (attached) you will find that the top 16 performers for each sire are almost equally distributed between Meadow Skipper line (red) and Non Meadow Skipper line (other than red). In the case of Village Jolt by Cams Card Shark the Meadow Skipper lines are usually through Most Happy Fella other than through Cam Fella, while Western Maverick for the most part preferred mares of any other Meadow Skipper line including the MHF lines through Tyler B and Cam Fella. Well Said can be expected to do likewise.

Looking closer at the profiles you will see that regardless of the sire line of the mare there are two very specific elements in play. 30 of the 32 listed performers have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire and 30 of the 32, not necessarily the same 30, have a 1st to 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam through Abercrombie or Adios (blue) and/or Volomite (green) quite often the Direct Scooter line.

This makes the process very simple. A single statement combining these two elements covers 95% of the top performers. There are always excceptions such as R Lil King with no Meadow Skipper line maternally but in his case the broodmare sire, Armbro Getty, combines both Abercrombie and the Volomite line sire Horton Hanover. Lil Motion has no Adios line but has a direct connection to Sampson Direct, sire of Direct Scooter.While these are exceptions to the general profile there are valid reasons to justify their success based on pedigree. The only other one in the top performers of either sire that falls outside the profile is Magic Maverick with no Adios or Volomite line but his dam is inbred to Good Time and if you can find a Well Said from a similar mare then it obviously cannot be ignored.

You will be surprised to see which of the Well Said yearlings fit or don't fit this profile. That profile for Well Said was clearly established when he went to stud based on the performers by Western Maverick and Village Jolt. Did the breeders guess right ? This time next year you will find out whether breeders guesses win out over informed decisions based on following the profile.

Now I dont want anyone to interpret my remarks as a condemnation of Well Said because of his similar pedigree to two essentially failed sires. The mares that Well Said received are far superior in quality. That in itself does not guarantee success but if there are sufficient of the correct type with respect to profile he will do very well. He is, after all, a superior individual as a racehorse and in his own maternal family.