The 2018 Breeders Crown for Standardbreds is over and as expected eight of the twelve winners had double/double or DD pedigrees. The four others had something in common too - a pedigree pattern that shows up in many of the top thoroughbreds. For lack of a better acronym lets call it TB as opposed to DD. It turns out that the TB pattern has been hiding in plain sight all along in top Standardbreds, especially trotters, and a look at the top 20 North American bred trotters shows the richest one, Moni Maker, to be a perfect example. She is by Speedy Crown, a son of Speedy Scot and from a mare that is inbred to Speedy Scot and that is the TB pattern. Speedy Crown, by the way, is a DD and so is the dam of Moni Maker - SURPRISE. The top 20 have 6 that are TB, 12 that are DD and 2 that are of mixed French and North American bloodlines.
A look at the top two and three year old thoroughbreds in North America shows 7 of the top 10 to date in each age group with TB or DD patterns. The two year olds are led by Bellafina who is both TB and DD and is the favorite in Fridays $2 million Juvenile Filly race at 1 1/16th. She has won three straight including two G1 races and a G2. There are two other fillies that are double patterned in the same race with Splashy Kisses and Baby Nina both long shots. The Juvenile Turf has one such in Maries Diamond, a stakes winner from Ireland. Tight Ten in the Juvenile Colt is another longshot chance with both patterns.
The two year old races have 31 TB pattern entrants and 10 with DD including the five noted above. In the races for three year olds and older on Saturday there are 47 TB, 13 DD and 5 that are both including Santa Monica in the Mares Turf, Next Shares in the BC Mile, Robert Bruce in the BC Turf, and Lone Sailor and Axelrod in the BC Classic going for $6 million. The favourite in the Classic is Accelerate, a DD pedigree and winner of three straight G1 races, but my personal sentimental favourite is another DD called Catholic Boy, one of the first ones I noticed last year in the Breeders Cup and co-bred by successful Standardbred owner John Fielding. You can read more about this horse in my previous blog entry on John Fielding.
Pedigree patterns like DD and TB are not guaranteed to give you a classic winner but the fact that so many of the best show these patterns certainly makes it worth while considering as a positive factor in buying and breeding race horses.
There is one yearling in the Harrisburg Standardbred yearling sale that is both DD and TB. What is it worth to you to know which one it is ?
Here are my picks for the winners from the DD and TB entrants
Saturday
Filly and Mare Sprint - Golden Mischief TB
Turf Sprint - Disco Partner TB or Stormy Liberal DD
Dirt Mile - City Of Light DD or Catalina Cruiser DD
Filly and Mare Turf - Magic Wand TB, longshot Santa Monica TB/DD
BC Sprint - Roy H TB
BC Mile - Next Shares TB/DD
BC Distaff - Blue Prize TB
BC Turf - Enable TB
BC Classic - Catholic Boy DD or Accelerate DD
Sunday
Juvenile Turf Sprint - Soldiers Call TB or Sergei Profokiev DD
Juvenile Filly Turf - Concrete Rose DD
Juvenile Filly - Bellafina TB/DD
Juvenile Turf - Maries Diamond TB/DD
BC Juvenile - Code Of Honor TB, longshot Tight Ten TB/DD
Showing posts with label Pedigrees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pedigrees. Show all posts
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Sunday, September 23, 2018
Double - Double Yearlings
Add Tall Drink Hanover, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.
There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.
There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.
Monday, May 7, 2018
Top Two Year Old Performance Horse Of The Year
There are several breeds of horses that earn money through racing including Standardbreds, Thoroughbreds, Quarter Horses and Arabians. Which breed had the highest earning two year old in 2017 and what do the top two year olds of 2017 have in common in their pedigrees ? The answers may surprise you.
Fly Baby Fly is a Quarter Horse filly who made $1,585,000 last year. The next best was also a filly but a Thoroughbred one called Caledonia Road who made $1,229,000 with most of her money in one of her three starts as winner of a Breeders Cup race. Good Magic was the top Thoroughbred colt last year with $1,216,000 again due primarily to his Breeders Cup win. The Standardbred fillies, Youaremycandygirl ($943K) a pacer, and the trotter Manchego ($910K), were both Breeders Crown winners. Eagle Jazz, a Quarter Horse gelding comes next with $900K then the Standardbred colts Lost In Time (687K) on the pace and trotter Fiftydallarbill $458K.
The pedigrees of these big winners are remarkably consistent with respect to the pattern of success for most performance horses - Outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally as we promote through Pedigree Matching and in fact six of the eight are double/double pedigrees with the other two very close. In addition there is another pattern that appears significant in that seven of the eight are by sires whose sire line is maternally inbred in the dams. Here are the important aspects of their pedigrees.
Fly Baby Fly - She is by the current top sire in the racing Quarter Horse world called One Famous Eagle and with a classic pedigree match. The sire has Beduino maternally (a Nearco TB line) and Dash For Cash ( Three Bars line most common in QH breeding and also a TB line). The dam Higher Fire is by Walk Thru Fire by a son of Dash For Cash with a dam by Beduino. The third dam is also by Dash For Cash. The second dam is another thoroughbred line through Raise A Native. If you read my previous blog on the Kentucky Derby you will remember the significance of having both Raise A Native and Nearco maternal lines in top pedigrees. Both the sire and the dam have both in this pedigree so that combination is not unique to thoroughbreds. This is also a double/double pedigree in that the sire of One Famous Eagle has a dam linebred to the Three Bars line making One Famous Eagle double inbred maternally to that line.
Caledonia Road - Her sire Quality Road is a great grandson of Mr Prospector (Raise A Native) and is inbred maternally to the Nearco line and specifically to Northern Dancer. Quality Road's second dam is by a son of Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector. Her dam, Come A Callin, is a Northern Dancer line by Dixie Union and the second and third dams are also Northern Dancer - Nearco line.. She is also inbred maternally to Native Dancer. As we saw in the Kentucky Derby winner Justify this maternal crossing of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector is a powerful combination.
Good Magic - Like Caledonia Road his sire Curlin is through Mr Prospector and Curlin's dam is also a Northern Dancer line. The dam of Good Magic is by a grandson of Northern Dancer and the third dam is by a son of Northern Dancer and the dam is also inbred to Raise A Native. Same magical combination.
Eagle Jazz is by One Dashing Eagle, the top son of his famous sire, One Famous Eagle, and with a pedigree that brings back memories of my own close experience with Quarter Horse pedigrees. You can read about my son Charles' first purchase of a QH called One Famous Glass, with an almost identical pedigree to One Dashing Eagle, both selling in the same year in the Oklahoma sale. One Dashing Eagle earned over $2 millon racing in California and Charles had to be content with winning the Quarter Horse of The Year Award in Canada as a three year old and making just over $200K. As was the case in Fly Baby Fly the key ingredients are Beduino and Dash For Cash across the pedigree maternally and also we find a third dam through Raise A Native.
The standardbred trotter Manchego was written about in my previous blog article on her owner John Fielding. She has a double/double pedigree as does her colt counterpart Fiftydallarbill. That colt is by Swan For All, sire of World Champion Hannelore Hanover. He too is a double/double since the dam Cr Dixie Chick returns all four of her principal lines to the maternal lines of Swan For All and his sire Andover Hall.
The top Standardbred pacing filly Youaremycandygirl is yet another double/double. Her sire American Ideal is Matts Scooter - Albatross maternally and both of these lines are in the dam Sweet Lady Jane. American Ideal's sire is Western Ideal who is Abercombie (Adios line) - Meadow Skipper maternally and we find both lines also in Sweet Baby Jane.
Lost in Time is from the first crop of A Rocknroll Dance, a No Nukes line sire with a dam that is linebred to Meadow Skipper through his sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. His dam, Summer Mystery is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella and he has a third dam through a son of Albatross. There is also an Abercrombie return to the maternal lines of the sire of A Rocknroll Dance.
These are examples of three different racing breeds whose champions all have pedigrees that follow Pedigree Matching principles.
I dont want to leave out the Arabians, who do not race at two, but one of the top Arabs last year was aptly named Quick And Rich. He is by TH Richie, a sire whose dam combines the Morafic and Nazeer sire lines. The dam of Quick And Rich is a Morafic line sire as is the third dam, and the second dam is through Nazeer. Just another great pedigree match.
Fly Baby Fly is a Quarter Horse filly who made $1,585,000 last year. The next best was also a filly but a Thoroughbred one called Caledonia Road who made $1,229,000 with most of her money in one of her three starts as winner of a Breeders Cup race. Good Magic was the top Thoroughbred colt last year with $1,216,000 again due primarily to his Breeders Cup win. The Standardbred fillies, Youaremycandygirl ($943K) a pacer, and the trotter Manchego ($910K), were both Breeders Crown winners. Eagle Jazz, a Quarter Horse gelding comes next with $900K then the Standardbred colts Lost In Time (687K) on the pace and trotter Fiftydallarbill $458K.
The pedigrees of these big winners are remarkably consistent with respect to the pattern of success for most performance horses - Outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally as we promote through Pedigree Matching and in fact six of the eight are double/double pedigrees with the other two very close. In addition there is another pattern that appears significant in that seven of the eight are by sires whose sire line is maternally inbred in the dams. Here are the important aspects of their pedigrees.
Fly Baby Fly - She is by the current top sire in the racing Quarter Horse world called One Famous Eagle and with a classic pedigree match. The sire has Beduino maternally (a Nearco TB line) and Dash For Cash ( Three Bars line most common in QH breeding and also a TB line). The dam Higher Fire is by Walk Thru Fire by a son of Dash For Cash with a dam by Beduino. The third dam is also by Dash For Cash. The second dam is another thoroughbred line through Raise A Native. If you read my previous blog on the Kentucky Derby you will remember the significance of having both Raise A Native and Nearco maternal lines in top pedigrees. Both the sire and the dam have both in this pedigree so that combination is not unique to thoroughbreds. This is also a double/double pedigree in that the sire of One Famous Eagle has a dam linebred to the Three Bars line making One Famous Eagle double inbred maternally to that line.
Caledonia Road - Her sire Quality Road is a great grandson of Mr Prospector (Raise A Native) and is inbred maternally to the Nearco line and specifically to Northern Dancer. Quality Road's second dam is by a son of Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector. Her dam, Come A Callin, is a Northern Dancer line by Dixie Union and the second and third dams are also Northern Dancer - Nearco line.. She is also inbred maternally to Native Dancer. As we saw in the Kentucky Derby winner Justify this maternal crossing of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector is a powerful combination.
Good Magic - Like Caledonia Road his sire Curlin is through Mr Prospector and Curlin's dam is also a Northern Dancer line. The dam of Good Magic is by a grandson of Northern Dancer and the third dam is by a son of Northern Dancer and the dam is also inbred to Raise A Native. Same magical combination.
Eagle Jazz is by One Dashing Eagle, the top son of his famous sire, One Famous Eagle, and with a pedigree that brings back memories of my own close experience with Quarter Horse pedigrees. You can read about my son Charles' first purchase of a QH called One Famous Glass, with an almost identical pedigree to One Dashing Eagle, both selling in the same year in the Oklahoma sale. One Dashing Eagle earned over $2 millon racing in California and Charles had to be content with winning the Quarter Horse of The Year Award in Canada as a three year old and making just over $200K. As was the case in Fly Baby Fly the key ingredients are Beduino and Dash For Cash across the pedigree maternally and also we find a third dam through Raise A Native.
The standardbred trotter Manchego was written about in my previous blog article on her owner John Fielding. She has a double/double pedigree as does her colt counterpart Fiftydallarbill. That colt is by Swan For All, sire of World Champion Hannelore Hanover. He too is a double/double since the dam Cr Dixie Chick returns all four of her principal lines to the maternal lines of Swan For All and his sire Andover Hall.
The top Standardbred pacing filly Youaremycandygirl is yet another double/double. Her sire American Ideal is Matts Scooter - Albatross maternally and both of these lines are in the dam Sweet Lady Jane. American Ideal's sire is Western Ideal who is Abercombie (Adios line) - Meadow Skipper maternally and we find both lines also in Sweet Baby Jane.
Lost in Time is from the first crop of A Rocknroll Dance, a No Nukes line sire with a dam that is linebred to Meadow Skipper through his sons Most Happy Fella and Albatross. His dam, Summer Mystery is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella and he has a third dam through a son of Albatross. There is also an Abercrombie return to the maternal lines of the sire of A Rocknroll Dance.
These are examples of three different racing breeds whose champions all have pedigrees that follow Pedigree Matching principles.
I dont want to leave out the Arabians, who do not race at two, but one of the top Arabs last year was aptly named Quick And Rich. He is by TH Richie, a sire whose dam combines the Morafic and Nazeer sire lines. The dam of Quick And Rich is a Morafic line sire as is the third dam, and the second dam is through Nazeer. Just another great pedigree match.
Friday, May 4, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018
Twenty One of the best three year olds in North America will contest the 2018 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 5th, at Churchill Downs. It is said to be the strongest Derby field in recent history and the early favorite is an unbeaten colt called Justify that, however, did not race at two which is a historical problem since it is well over 100 years since such a lightly raced horse has won the Derby.
The pedigrees are what are of most interest to me regardless of their performance to date. In recent years there has been a distinct trend among the participants of winners showing maternal crosses of Northern Dancer and/or Mr Prospector and Justify is one that continues that pattern.
Justify is by Scat Daddy whose dam is by Mr Prospector and second dam by Nijinsky, a son of Northern Dancer. Justify's dam, Stage Magic is by Ghostzapper , a Northern Dancer line sire and the third dam is by Baldski, a son of Nijinski. She is also inbred maternally Mr Prospector.
Here is the list in starting order with their pedigrees and a notation of the significant maternal crosses.
1. Firenze Fire - A double/double pedigree with multiple maternal lines through Nearco and with a dam that combines Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector lines.
2. Free Drop Billy - Double maternal inbred to both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector and has a double/double pedigree since his grandsire Dixie Union has the same lines maternally.
3. Promises Fulfilled - Maternal double to Mr Prospector who is the sire line of Shackleford's dam as well as the sire line of the dam of Promises Fulfilled whose sire Marquetry is also a combination of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.
4. Flameaway - The lone Canadian foaled entry in the field is inbred maternally 3x3 to Mr Prospector and to Nijinsky 4x5. His sire Scat Daddy is also inbred maternally to Mr Prospector while his dam, Vulcan Rose, is inbred maternally to Northern Dancer.
5. Audible - The only New York bred is an outlier to the pattern with no significant crosses to either Mr P or ND. There is an inbreeding to the Nearco line as well as to Raise A Native, sire of Mr P.
6. Good Magic - The top two year old last year is double inbred maternally to Northern Dancer and from a dam that is maternally inbred to Raise A Native and linebred to the Northern Dancer line.
7. Justify - As noted above
8. Lone Sailor - Double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P and has a double/double pedigree with several Nearco lines. He is a longshot listed as 50/1 but his pedigree may make him a surprise.
9. Hofburg - Also double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P.
10. My Boy Jack - Out of a mare that is inbred 3x3 maternally to Mr P.
11. Bolt D'Oro - Fastest two year old on Beyer last year and has no significant Mr P or Northern Dancer connections
12. Enticed - Has a dam that is inbred to Mr Prospector and a second dam linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P but no maternal crosses of these sires to his sire Medaglia Doro.
13. Bravazo - He is by Awesome Again who combines Nearco and Mr P lines maternally and there is a line through ND in the dam but nothing stands out.
14. Mendelssohn - Inbred to ND and the dam is also inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. No maternal sign of Mr P though.
15. Instilled Regard - Double inbred to Northern Dancer and to Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector.
16. Magnum Moon - Inbred to Mr Prospector maternally and from a dam linbred to Mr P. Inbred maternally to Northern Dancer as well although well back in the pedigree.
17. Solomini - Inbred to ND maternally 5x4 and double inbred to the Nearco line. No Mr P.
18. Vino Rosso - Inbred maternally to Deputy Minister, grandson of ND and from a mare by Mr Prospector making him a linebred 3x4 to that sire. In fact the sire and the dam are both combinations of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines - a bit unusual but it is working so far for this colt.
19. Noble Indy - His sire is a combination of ND and Mr P lines and the dam is linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P. Could be some fireworks from this horse in more ways than one.
20. Combatant - The fourth entry by Scat Daddy and with a similar pedigree to the others being double inbred to both ND and Mr P. An added bonus is the maternal link to Damascus in the maternal line of Johannesburg, sire of Scat Daddy , which makes this pedigree a double double.
21. Blended Citizen - The dam has both ND and Mr P but nothing across the pedigree of interest.
So there you have it. Since there appears to be no clear favorite, given that the two with the lowest morning line odds are both afflicted with the two year old curse this may be a longshot Derby, especially since the ones with double/double pedigree patterns are among the least favored to date. Looks like a win by a son of Scat Daddy to me. Perhaps I will bet on his Canadian son Flameaway.
The pedigrees are what are of most interest to me regardless of their performance to date. In recent years there has been a distinct trend among the participants of winners showing maternal crosses of Northern Dancer and/or Mr Prospector and Justify is one that continues that pattern.
Justify is by Scat Daddy whose dam is by Mr Prospector and second dam by Nijinsky, a son of Northern Dancer. Justify's dam, Stage Magic is by Ghostzapper , a Northern Dancer line sire and the third dam is by Baldski, a son of Nijinski. She is also inbred maternally Mr Prospector.
Here is the list in starting order with their pedigrees and a notation of the significant maternal crosses.
1. Firenze Fire - A double/double pedigree with multiple maternal lines through Nearco and with a dam that combines Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector lines.
2. Free Drop Billy - Double maternal inbred to both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector and has a double/double pedigree since his grandsire Dixie Union has the same lines maternally.
3. Promises Fulfilled - Maternal double to Mr Prospector who is the sire line of Shackleford's dam as well as the sire line of the dam of Promises Fulfilled whose sire Marquetry is also a combination of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines.
4. Flameaway - The lone Canadian foaled entry in the field is inbred maternally 3x3 to Mr Prospector and to Nijinsky 4x5. His sire Scat Daddy is also inbred maternally to Mr Prospector while his dam, Vulcan Rose, is inbred maternally to Northern Dancer.
5. Audible - The only New York bred is an outlier to the pattern with no significant crosses to either Mr P or ND. There is an inbreeding to the Nearco line as well as to Raise A Native, sire of Mr P.
6. Good Magic - The top two year old last year is double inbred maternally to Northern Dancer and from a dam that is maternally inbred to Raise A Native and linebred to the Northern Dancer line.
7. Justify - As noted above
8. Lone Sailor - Double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P and has a double/double pedigree with several Nearco lines. He is a longshot listed as 50/1 but his pedigree may make him a surprise.
9. Hofburg - Also double inbred maternally to ND and Mr P.
10. My Boy Jack - Out of a mare that is inbred 3x3 maternally to Mr P.
11. Bolt D'Oro - Fastest two year old on Beyer last year and has no significant Mr P or Northern Dancer connections
12. Enticed - Has a dam that is inbred to Mr Prospector and a second dam linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P but no maternal crosses of these sires to his sire Medaglia Doro.
13. Bravazo - He is by Awesome Again who combines Nearco and Mr P lines maternally and there is a line through ND in the dam but nothing stands out.
14. Mendelssohn - Inbred to ND and the dam is also inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. No maternal sign of Mr P though.
15. Instilled Regard - Double inbred to Northern Dancer and to Raise A Native, sire of Mr Prospector.
16. Magnum Moon - Inbred to Mr Prospector maternally and from a dam linbred to Mr P. Inbred maternally to Northern Dancer as well although well back in the pedigree.
17. Solomini - Inbred to ND maternally 5x4 and double inbred to the Nearco line. No Mr P.
18. Vino Rosso - Inbred maternally to Deputy Minister, grandson of ND and from a mare by Mr Prospector making him a linebred 3x4 to that sire. In fact the sire and the dam are both combinations of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer lines - a bit unusual but it is working so far for this colt.
19. Noble Indy - His sire is a combination of ND and Mr P lines and the dam is linebred to ND and inbred maternally to Mr P. Could be some fireworks from this horse in more ways than one.
20. Combatant - The fourth entry by Scat Daddy and with a similar pedigree to the others being double inbred to both ND and Mr P. An added bonus is the maternal link to Damascus in the maternal line of Johannesburg, sire of Scat Daddy , which makes this pedigree a double double.
21. Blended Citizen - The dam has both ND and Mr P but nothing across the pedigree of interest.
So there you have it. Since there appears to be no clear favorite, given that the two with the lowest morning line odds are both afflicted with the two year old curse this may be a longshot Derby, especially since the ones with double/double pedigree patterns are among the least favored to date. Looks like a win by a son of Scat Daddy to me. Perhaps I will bet on his Canadian son Flameaway.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Similar Sires - Similar Profiles
One of the most important things you can do when choosing a sire is to create the profile of what works with respect to the mares that produce their top performers. An article on Standardbred Canada caught my eye because it dealt with a three year old colt by Pet Rock who has won his first three starts. The profile for his sire is predictable based on the profile of Rock N Roll Heaven, a sire with an almost identical pedigree.
Both sires have maternal lines of Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella). Mares with these sire lines are prime candidates for these sires but for some reason Rock N Roll Heaven seems to also favor mares with Big Towner maternally. Seven of his top 10 show this connection. That would indicate to me that Pet Rock would show likewise and although his offspring are just three year olds to date it appears to be a key for his success. I was interested in finding out if Larrys Petrock, the subject of the article, fit this profile - his third dam is in fact by Big Towner. The profile for Pet Rock shows 5 of his top 10 with this connection.
While not all of the offspring of these two similar sires have Big Towner maternally that feature is something that cannot be ignored if not entirely explainable. Most of the others show combinations of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella as expected.
Picking a sire is not that difficult, just do your homework with respect to the profiles of the sires in which you are interested
Both sires have maternal lines of Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Cam Fella (Most Happy Fella). Mares with these sire lines are prime candidates for these sires but for some reason Rock N Roll Heaven seems to also favor mares with Big Towner maternally. Seven of his top 10 show this connection. That would indicate to me that Pet Rock would show likewise and although his offspring are just three year olds to date it appears to be a key for his success. I was interested in finding out if Larrys Petrock, the subject of the article, fit this profile - his third dam is in fact by Big Towner. The profile for Pet Rock shows 5 of his top 10 with this connection.
While not all of the offspring of these two similar sires have Big Towner maternally that feature is something that cannot be ignored if not entirely explainable. Most of the others show combinations of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella as expected.
Picking a sire is not that difficult, just do your homework with respect to the profiles of the sires in which you are interested
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Performance Updates
Performance updates are underway for the PM Online databases. Now is the time to update your stallion profiles, one of the most important reports you need for proper sire selection. Attached is the profile for pacing sire Rock N Roll Heaven who is back in New York standing at Winbak Farm. He has a very specific profile that involves the relatively obscure sire line of Gene Abbe. In looking over the yearlings of 2014 I found just one that fitted his profile and worthy of recommending for purchase. She is Planet Rock, and now one of the top NY 2 year olds last year and winner of $202,500. Every stallion has a profile with respect to the sire lines in the dams of his best performers and more often than not the key sire lines are the same as the ones in his own dam. This is not the case with Gene Abbe though but since it is clearly a "nick" with a high percentage it cannot be ignored even if it cant be explained, especially in pedigrees that also combine Cam Fella and Abercrombie lines.There were three yearlings in Harrisburg last year that were on profile, Chief Rockstar, Pan Am Blue Chip and Twin B Tuffenuff, and three in Lexington, Allie Cat Deo, Kasey Deo and Lets Fall In Love. If you bought a yearling by Pet Rock in Ohio you should be aware that his sire lines are identical to those of Rock N Roll Heaven and he will likely have the same profile of success. I'm looking for Velocity Mattie, Huey, Isic Rock, Jojos Pet Rock, Lima Valor, Mossies Art and Our Third Rock to continue the trend.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
2015 Yearling Sales
The standardbred yearling sales entries at Morrisville and Goshen in New York, Harrisburg, Illinois, Ohio Jug and Ohio Buckeye, Forest City and the Canadian Open in Ontario, are now listed in the Globetrotter database. Lexington and the Indiana sales will be added shortly.
The sale profile function of PM Online will allow you to tabulate the yearlings by sale and check out their individual profiles versus the profile of success for the sire as well as provide cross statistics. Great tool to use to do your homework before you get to the sale and prepare a short list of the ones with the best chance to succeed.
You can also order a sale list of the best pedigrees sorted by performance rating from Pedigree Matching. All regional sales lists, with the exception of Harrisburg and Lexington, are $250. The Harrisburg and Lexington major sales are $1,000 for the full sale, or $250 for any component e.g. pacing colts, New York breds, etc . You can also buy an all yearling per day report for $400 for the major sales. You can order using the Paypal process on the Pedigree Matching website.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
PM Online - Gurus
Wanted - Country and Regional Gurus
If you volunteer to be a Guru you can get free access to PM Online at the Guru level. Gurus serve an important role in keeping the databases current especially with respect to the top performers but there are other responsibilities.
Each Guru has a geographic area of responsibility. For some smaller countries, in terms of activity, we need just one, while in North America we need gurus in the key states and provinces where racing and breeding activity is greatest. We need Gurus for all breeds represented in the GlobeTrotter and GlobeRunner databases including our soon to be added Arabian database GlobeArab.
The main responsibilities of a Guru are as follows:
1. Update the performance records of the top performers in your area on an ongoing basis.
2. Add and edit stallion information for stallions and farms in your breeding jurisdiction, e.g. Pennsylvania, New South Wales, New Zealand, Finland, Atlantic Canada, etc.
3. Review and improve translation of the PM Online text.
There is also a role to play in recruiting subscribers, advertising and sponsors for which you can earn commissions.
If you are interested in becoming a Guru then email me at norman@pedigreematching.com before January 31st to see if there is a position still available.
If you volunteer to be a Guru you can get free access to PM Online at the Guru level. Gurus serve an important role in keeping the databases current especially with respect to the top performers but there are other responsibilities.
Each Guru has a geographic area of responsibility. For some smaller countries, in terms of activity, we need just one, while in North America we need gurus in the key states and provinces where racing and breeding activity is greatest. We need Gurus for all breeds represented in the GlobeTrotter and GlobeRunner databases including our soon to be added Arabian database GlobeArab.
The main responsibilities of a Guru are as follows:
1. Update the performance records of the top performers in your area on an ongoing basis.
2. Add and edit stallion information for stallions and farms in your breeding jurisdiction, e.g. Pennsylvania, New South Wales, New Zealand, Finland, Atlantic Canada, etc.
3. Review and improve translation of the PM Online text.
There is also a role to play in recruiting subscribers, advertising and sponsors for which you can earn commissions.
If you are interested in becoming a Guru then email me at norman@pedigreematching.com before January 31st to see if there is a position still available.
PM Online - Proud supporter of Horses for Autism
Friday, June 27, 2014
PM Online Update
It has been a long process but we are finally getting there. Just a few wrinkles to iron out and we can make an official launch of PM Online shortly. Some of you have already tried out the site and perhaps experienced problems but hopefully all that is behind us now. This has been Phase One, replicating the Globetrotter program online to be accessed by any browser and device currently available. Sounds easy but in fact has been a complicated process that has taken almost a year longer than the anticipated six months we planned on.
The next phase of our development will be to add new functions such as the stallion profiles, performance ratings, sale reports etc., and anything else you might suggest to make the site as usefull to you as possible. This will be an ongoing process and your feedback is important to us to achieve our goal of developing an international pedigree database with all of the tools you need to help you make correct decisions on what to breed and what to buy.
Some of you are still using the old desk based Globetrotter program and have been asking about updates to the database. While it is my hope that you will eventually switch over to PM Online for its ease of use and greater range of options and more timely and accurate data, I am prepared to provide an annual database update for the time being. Instructions on accessing the current database can be found here.
Instructions on Updating Globetrotter Database
If you are interested in the future development of PM Online as an investment opportunity or as a vehicle for advertising and promotion of your own products and services I would be interested in hearing from you. Quite frankly I'm not sure how much longer I have, at my age, to devote to this "project" so I am interested in forming a limited partnership to ensure the future of PM Online is in good hands. You can call me for details at 901-628-5581 or email to norman@pedigreematching.com
The next phase of our development will be to add new functions such as the stallion profiles, performance ratings, sale reports etc., and anything else you might suggest to make the site as usefull to you as possible. This will be an ongoing process and your feedback is important to us to achieve our goal of developing an international pedigree database with all of the tools you need to help you make correct decisions on what to breed and what to buy.
Some of you are still using the old desk based Globetrotter program and have been asking about updates to the database. While it is my hope that you will eventually switch over to PM Online for its ease of use and greater range of options and more timely and accurate data, I am prepared to provide an annual database update for the time being. Instructions on accessing the current database can be found here.
Instructions on Updating Globetrotter Database
If you are interested in the future development of PM Online as an investment opportunity or as a vehicle for advertising and promotion of your own products and services I would be interested in hearing from you. Quite frankly I'm not sure how much longer I have, at my age, to devote to this "project" so I am interested in forming a limited partnership to ensure the future of PM Online is in good hands. You can call me for details at 901-628-5581 or email to norman@pedigreematching.com
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Something For Nothing
The wonderful thing about breeding horses is that every now and then there appears something from nothing. There is a gelding in Delaware that is undefeated in 11 starts at 2 and 3. His name is I Like My Boss. He is by a modest son of Donerail called Don Boss Vita and from a mare that has absolutely nothing to offer in her maternal family.
The dam, Wild One, made all of $17,345 and there are few individuals in the next generations to beat that accomplishment yet she has produced one of the best in Delaware history.
Don Boss Vita is Florida Pro - Super Bowl maternally and Wild One is by Cr Commando. a Delaware sire that is by a son of Super Bowl from a daughter of Florida Pro. Now some would say that is a coincidence but not if you are a follower of pedigree matching. That direct compatibility between the dam of the sire and the sire of the dam is exactly what pedigree matching is all about.
Pedigree Matching can trump pedigree and every mare and every sire can produce a very good performer if they are matched up correctly. I Like My Boss is proof of the pudding.
The dam, Wild One, made all of $17,345 and there are few individuals in the next generations to beat that accomplishment yet she has produced one of the best in Delaware history.
Don Boss Vita is Florida Pro - Super Bowl maternally and Wild One is by Cr Commando. a Delaware sire that is by a son of Super Bowl from a daughter of Florida Pro. Now some would say that is a coincidence but not if you are a follower of pedigree matching. That direct compatibility between the dam of the sire and the sire of the dam is exactly what pedigree matching is all about.
Pedigree Matching can trump pedigree and every mare and every sire can produce a very good performer if they are matched up correctly. I Like My Boss is proof of the pudding.
Australia and New Zealand Update
The ANZ data has been updated on PM Online to reflect current performance and new named additions including yearlings.
The two year olds are led by a pair of Art Majors. The top pacing colt is Follow The Stars $251K and top filly is Queen Of Pop $160K. Both were bred in Victoria. Top two year old trotter is Monbet by French sire Love You who extends his global dominance as a sire to yet another country.
The three year olds are led by Bling It On by American Ideal (558K Aud) and Venus Serena by Mach Three (664K Nzd). Im Stately by Majestic Son leads the trotters with 183K.
As in Europe the Anzacs don't race much at 2 and 3 and the purses are not anywhere near those in North America for young horses. They do, however, continue to supply quality aged horses to the US market and could well see a resurgence of that trade in the next few years. North American yearling production continues to slide and the larger farms are getting fewer in number. NA yearlings this year dropped below 8000 for the first time in over 40 years and the drastic reduction in mares bred in Ontario the past two years will make this problem more acute. Where will all the racehorses come from to keep the existing tracks going ?
The two year olds are led by a pair of Art Majors. The top pacing colt is Follow The Stars $251K and top filly is Queen Of Pop $160K. Both were bred in Victoria. Top two year old trotter is Monbet by French sire Love You who extends his global dominance as a sire to yet another country.
The three year olds are led by Bling It On by American Ideal (558K Aud) and Venus Serena by Mach Three (664K Nzd). Im Stately by Majestic Son leads the trotters with 183K.
As in Europe the Anzacs don't race much at 2 and 3 and the purses are not anywhere near those in North America for young horses. They do, however, continue to supply quality aged horses to the US market and could well see a resurgence of that trade in the next few years. North American yearling production continues to slide and the larger farms are getting fewer in number. NA yearlings this year dropped below 8000 for the first time in over 40 years and the drastic reduction in mares bred in Ontario the past two years will make this problem more acute. Where will all the racehorses come from to keep the existing tracks going ?
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Stallions from Nowhere
It seems every year we see a previously unheralded sire spring to prominence with a special performer. It reinforces my feeling that any sire can have a top performer when given the right opportunity. Two years ago it was trotting sire Justice Hall and his Breeders Crown winning 3YO colt. Last year was the year of Believeinbruiser, a son of Mach Three, who produced the winner of the Ontario Sires Stakes Superfinal, a two year old colt called Bugger Bruiser.
The pedigree is eerily familiar to that of Captaintreacherous, also by a son of Mach Three in Somebeachsomewhere. In past posts we have discussed SBSW and seen that , with his double Meadow Skipper maternal line, he has shown his best with mares that also have double Meadow Skipper and especially when the mare is inbred maternally to that sire rather than linebred. Such was the case for Captaintreacherous whose dam is by Artsplace and with a second dam through Albatross.
Believeinbruiser is very similar maternally to SBSW, with a double Meadow Skipper line dam that features Cam Fella, so he shares the same profile and indeed that is confirmed by Bugger Bruiser as well as his second best to date Bad Girl Vegas and in his fourth best Bugger Max. All three are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are closely inbred to Meadow Skipper. Bugger Bruiser, like Captaintreacherous, is from an Artsplace dam with a second dam through Albatross. The third best is from a Cam Fella line mare which is another part of the SBSW profile.
So now breeders in Ontario have an affordable alternative to SBSW right in their back yard.
Here is the pedigree from PM Online
http://www.mediafire.com/view/lq89xcdx4lvfy01/Bugger%20Bruiser.pdf
The pedigree is eerily familiar to that of Captaintreacherous, also by a son of Mach Three in Somebeachsomewhere. In past posts we have discussed SBSW and seen that , with his double Meadow Skipper maternal line, he has shown his best with mares that also have double Meadow Skipper and especially when the mare is inbred maternally to that sire rather than linebred. Such was the case for Captaintreacherous whose dam is by Artsplace and with a second dam through Albatross.
Believeinbruiser is very similar maternally to SBSW, with a double Meadow Skipper line dam that features Cam Fella, so he shares the same profile and indeed that is confirmed by Bugger Bruiser as well as his second best to date Bad Girl Vegas and in his fourth best Bugger Max. All three are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are closely inbred to Meadow Skipper. Bugger Bruiser, like Captaintreacherous, is from an Artsplace dam with a second dam through Albatross. The third best is from a Cam Fella line mare which is another part of the SBSW profile.
So now breeders in Ontario have an affordable alternative to SBSW right in their back yard.
Here is the pedigree from PM Online
http://www.mediafire.com/view/lq89xcdx4lvfy01/Bugger%20Bruiser.pdf
Friday, December 20, 2013
PM Online
Just in time for Christmas - PM Online is indeed online.
You will also find us on Facebook shortly and on our Pedigree Matching website. The link to PM Online is also on the website at www.pedigreematching.com and will be active effective Saturday, Decenber 21st.
The PM-Online service is offered on a subscription basis
with a variety of payment and access options. You can choose the bargain priced
Basic level that includes all of the functions of our previous PedigreeGuru web
service, or you can choose a Guru level subscription for more advanced
features, including all of your favourite Globetrotter program functions that
allow you to add, edit and store information on your own horses as well as do
complex searches and profiles for stallion performance and for yearling sales.
An added feature for Guru level subscribers will be the EasyMatch function that
provides stallion choices for your mares at the click of a button.
Visit PM-Online for a free two day trial and find out more
about the worldwide Globetrotter database that now contains over 2.2 million
horses including standardbreds and related breeds such as coldblood and French
trotters, and Tennessee Walking horses.
If you are interested in thoroughbred pedigrees then you
will want to try out Globerunner, a parallel service for pedigree research of
thoroughbred and quarter horses, again with an international database approaching
two million horses.
It is our hope that PM-Online will form the basis for a
truly worldwide database supported directly by the various registries. To this
end we are offering complimentary basic access to any registered member of any
organization that directly supports the database with ongoing data updates or
through commercial endorsement.
While other sites may provide similar
information we are committed to providing the tools to make the information
work for you in your search for a future champion performance horse. We encourage you to help us in that quest by sending us your suggestions for improvements.
As an incentive we are offering subscription credits for active database participation and also for referring this site to your friends. For every ten referrals that subscribe and identify you as the reference you will receive a one year membership extension worth $100 at the basic subscription level. For 50 referrals you can upgrade to Guru level for one year, a value of $400. As a Guru level subscriber you will be authorized to add/edit data and earn further credits to allow you to continue to use the site free at the Guru level.
As an incentive we are offering subscription credits for active database participation and also for referring this site to your friends. For every ten referrals that subscribe and identify you as the reference you will receive a one year membership extension worth $100 at the basic subscription level. For 50 referrals you can upgrade to Guru level for one year, a value of $400. As a Guru level subscriber you will be authorized to add/edit data and earn further credits to allow you to continue to use the site free at the Guru level.
Guru members can also choose a lifetime subscription that
entitles them to become a PM Online partner with an interest in the future
development and success of PM Online.
For more information on membership options, including our referral incentive program and PM-Online partner opportunities, you can contact me personally by calling:
902-628-5581 (Canada) or by email to norman@pedigreematching.com
You will also find us on Facebook shortly and on our Pedigree Matching website. The link to PM Online is also on the website at www.pedigreematching.com and will be active effective Saturday, Decenber 21st.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Harrisburg - the Mecca of Standardbreds
I cant go to Harrisburg this year since I am slated for cataract surgery but those of you that go there are in for a treat. This is the biggest standardbred auction in the world and it has a worldwide audience. In addition to the over 1000 yearlings there is a mixed sale of epic proportions that features many of the best breeding stock and racehorses in North America. It is definitely a bucket list event and maybe, just maybe, you can pick up a champion while you are there.
Attached are the profiles of the yearlings in Book One of the Harrisburg Black Book. The sale features such great champion stallions as Muscles Yankee, Somebeachsomewhere, Credit Winner, and Art Major as well as several first crop sires that will get a lot of attention.
First crop sires are a guessing game for both breeders and buyers - that is if they do not understand pedigree matching. The fact is that picking the best is not a secret process, nor is it a roll of the dice. If you stick to the principles of outcrossing on sire line and inbreeding maternally you will increase your chances considerably over the average sale goer.
One way to give yourself an edge over the competition is to use stallion profiles to predict which yearlings are correctly matched. Every stallion has a profile for success that is established in its first year crop and never varies. The success of a first year stallion can be predicted based on the profiles of similar stallions that already have offspring racing. This is an established fact that most breeders and buyers do not recognize.
Here are the links to the profiles of the Harrisburg yearlings - happy matching.
http://www.mediafire.com/download/982k761r5wabzs6/Harrisburg_2013_Pacing_Yearling_Profile.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/rra01xhpwxhzacv/Harrisburg_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Attached are the profiles of the yearlings in Book One of the Harrisburg Black Book. The sale features such great champion stallions as Muscles Yankee, Somebeachsomewhere, Credit Winner, and Art Major as well as several first crop sires that will get a lot of attention.
First crop sires are a guessing game for both breeders and buyers - that is if they do not understand pedigree matching. The fact is that picking the best is not a secret process, nor is it a roll of the dice. If you stick to the principles of outcrossing on sire line and inbreeding maternally you will increase your chances considerably over the average sale goer.
One way to give yourself an edge over the competition is to use stallion profiles to predict which yearlings are correctly matched. Every stallion has a profile for success that is established in its first year crop and never varies. The success of a first year stallion can be predicted based on the profiles of similar stallions that already have offspring racing. This is an established fact that most breeders and buyers do not recognize.
Here are the links to the profiles of the Harrisburg yearlings - happy matching.
http://www.mediafire.com/download/982k761r5wabzs6/Harrisburg_2013_Pacing_Yearling_Profile.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/rra01xhpwxhzacv/Harrisburg_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Lexington Trotting Yearlings
The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Lexington Pacing Yearling Profile
The 2013 Lexington yearling sale will see the first crops of three sires of special interest.
Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.
The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.
The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows
Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)
Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)
If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.
The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.
Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire. Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.
Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.
Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.
http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei
The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2) and Margaret Parrish (M2).
You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.
http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens
Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.
The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.
The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows
Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)
Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)
If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.
The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.
Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire. Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.
Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.
Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.
http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei
The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2) and Margaret Parrish (M2).
You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.
http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
The Big Heist and One Famous Glass
Here are a couple of Pedigree Matching success stories with very different backgrounds.
Cliff and Kathy Coonfer have a small breeding operation in Alberta. Like many small breeders they keep two or three mares, raise yearlings for the local sales and occasionally keep one for racing themselves. Last week I got the following message from Kathy via Facebook.
"Hi Norm. Remember about three and a half years ago when I sought your advice when I bought two new mares and then had to make breeding decisions? Both mares' two year olds are in their first stakes races this weekend. We are very pleased with them both so far and look forward to watching their progress. Appreciate your expertise and willingness to help me with mare and sire selection. Cheers, Kathy"
It turns out that their colt, The Big Heist, is now the track record holder at Lacombe for two year old geldings with a record of 1:55.3 taken just after Kathys message. The filly Make Three Wishes is also a winner in 1:59.2 and was a close second in the Starlet stake at Lacombe. Getting two year olds to the races is a low percentage business in North America and reflects the poor overall success rate of breeders generally as noted in my previous post "Percentages". Kathy, however, has learned to do her homework as the pedigrees for her two prodigys attest to.
I did help her out with buying the mares and suggesting possible sires but she and Cliff made the final choices and obviously also know how to raise winners as well. Kathy has a penchant for sibling crosses and The Big Heist is a case in point. He is by No Pan Intended whose second dam is the Albatross mare Best Of The Best. The dam of The Big Heist is Red Star Sugar Gal by Daylon Marshall, a British Columbia stallion that few have probably heard of outside that province. His dam is also Best Of The Best making him a sibling to Classic Wish, the dam of No Pan Intended. There is more. The third dam of Red Star Sugar Gal is also by Albatross making her inbred maternally to that great maternal influence (see my previous blog A Pattern To Watch For). Kathy and Cliff are off to a flying start with their new broodmare and their second foal, a yearling colt by Blue Burner, will likely get some real attention in the upcoming Alberta sale.
The other story is closer to home and in fact is about a horse owned by my son Charles, now a veterinarian in Ontario. One of his clients races quarter horses and enticed Charles into buying a yearling. They set off for the big yearling sale in Oklahoma and Charles, who created the original Pedigree Matching program for me, studied the pedigrees looking for one that showed the patterns of success he was familiar with in standarbreds. He was also aware that there was a sire called Beduino who is the equivalent to Albatross when it comes to impact on maternal lines. The colt they settled on was called One Famous Glass. His sire was One Famous Eagle, at that point an unproven sire. The dam of One Famous Eagle is by a son of Beduino and the second dam is by Dash For Cash. The dam of One Famous Glass is by a grandson of Dash For Cash that also has a dam by Beduino, making the colt inbred maternally 4x4 to both Beduino and Dash For Cash in typical standardbred fashion. There is an added fillip to the pedigree since there is a son of Streakin Six on the sire line and a daughter of Streakin Six on the maternal line, a pattern that is prominent in such top trotters including Muscle Massive.
On Labour Day, at Ajax Downs in Ontario, One Famous Glass, now three, beat some of the best quarter horses in Canada in a three year old and up elimination for the Canadian Maturity and goes into the final with the fastest elimination time and a chance to be the Horse of the Year in Canada with a win. His biggest threat is the other elimination winner, Lookingforagoodtime, whose pedigree has a similarity with a 3x3 maternal cross of Dash For Cash and Beduino in the dam.
Charles has also learned to do his homework just as Marg Neale, the Queen of Canadian pedigrees, promoted when she was quoted in Hoof Beats magazine.
"I’ve always talked about breeding for dominance – finding the individual that is the strongest aspect of the mare’s pedigree, then finding the stallion that has that individual in a certain place in his pedigree.”
Cliff and Kathy Coonfer have a small breeding operation in Alberta. Like many small breeders they keep two or three mares, raise yearlings for the local sales and occasionally keep one for racing themselves. Last week I got the following message from Kathy via Facebook.
"Hi Norm. Remember about three and a half years ago when I sought your advice when I bought two new mares and then had to make breeding decisions? Both mares' two year olds are in their first stakes races this weekend. We are very pleased with them both so far and look forward to watching their progress. Appreciate your expertise and willingness to help me with mare and sire selection. Cheers, Kathy"
It turns out that their colt, The Big Heist, is now the track record holder at Lacombe for two year old geldings with a record of 1:55.3 taken just after Kathys message. The filly Make Three Wishes is also a winner in 1:59.2 and was a close second in the Starlet stake at Lacombe. Getting two year olds to the races is a low percentage business in North America and reflects the poor overall success rate of breeders generally as noted in my previous post "Percentages". Kathy, however, has learned to do her homework as the pedigrees for her two prodigys attest to.
I did help her out with buying the mares and suggesting possible sires but she and Cliff made the final choices and obviously also know how to raise winners as well. Kathy has a penchant for sibling crosses and The Big Heist is a case in point. He is by No Pan Intended whose second dam is the Albatross mare Best Of The Best. The dam of The Big Heist is Red Star Sugar Gal by Daylon Marshall, a British Columbia stallion that few have probably heard of outside that province. His dam is also Best Of The Best making him a sibling to Classic Wish, the dam of No Pan Intended. There is more. The third dam of Red Star Sugar Gal is also by Albatross making her inbred maternally to that great maternal influence (see my previous blog A Pattern To Watch For). Kathy and Cliff are off to a flying start with their new broodmare and their second foal, a yearling colt by Blue Burner, will likely get some real attention in the upcoming Alberta sale.
The other story is closer to home and in fact is about a horse owned by my son Charles, now a veterinarian in Ontario. One of his clients races quarter horses and enticed Charles into buying a yearling. They set off for the big yearling sale in Oklahoma and Charles, who created the original Pedigree Matching program for me, studied the pedigrees looking for one that showed the patterns of success he was familiar with in standarbreds. He was also aware that there was a sire called Beduino who is the equivalent to Albatross when it comes to impact on maternal lines. The colt they settled on was called One Famous Glass. His sire was One Famous Eagle, at that point an unproven sire. The dam of One Famous Eagle is by a son of Beduino and the second dam is by Dash For Cash. The dam of One Famous Glass is by a grandson of Dash For Cash that also has a dam by Beduino, making the colt inbred maternally 4x4 to both Beduino and Dash For Cash in typical standardbred fashion. There is an added fillip to the pedigree since there is a son of Streakin Six on the sire line and a daughter of Streakin Six on the maternal line, a pattern that is prominent in such top trotters including Muscle Massive.
On Labour Day, at Ajax Downs in Ontario, One Famous Glass, now three, beat some of the best quarter horses in Canada in a three year old and up elimination for the Canadian Maturity and goes into the final with the fastest elimination time and a chance to be the Horse of the Year in Canada with a win. His biggest threat is the other elimination winner, Lookingforagoodtime, whose pedigree has a similarity with a 3x3 maternal cross of Dash For Cash and Beduino in the dam.
Charles has also learned to do his homework just as Marg Neale, the Queen of Canadian pedigrees, promoted when she was quoted in Hoof Beats magazine.
"I’ve always talked about breeding for dominance – finding the individual that is the strongest aspect of the mare’s pedigree, then finding the stallion that has that individual in a certain place in his pedigree.”
“We have been conditioned by the restriction of catalogues and advertising to view our horses, at most, as three generation animals. There are a great many people out there today that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework”
“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change."
It seems that not only the names change but the breeds also. One thing has not changed, however, and that is the need to do your homework.
In a few weeks time we hope to launch PM-Online, the long awaited internet version of the Pedigree Matching Globetrotter program. Then you will have the most comprehensive pedigree analysis tools at your fingertips and no more excuses. We will also have an option for thorobred and quarterhorse breeders called Globerunner.
Happy homework
Thursday, July 18, 2013
What is my "Philosophy" on Breeding?
My philosophy on breeding standardbreds is simple as published recently in Hevos, the Finland Association news magazine. I do not
have opinions on mares or stallions. I evaluate them on the basis of what I
know to be true based on established fact.
Unfortunately the breeders of today base most of their
decisions on opinions, mostly those of other people, and resulting from anecdotal
information at best and from rumour at worst. As a result the success rate in
producing top performers is far below what it should be and leads to an
enormous waste of our time and resources.
Genetics tells us that if you choose a correct pedigree you
have a 25% chance of creating the top individual you seek. The success rate for
breeders worldwide is less than 5% in producing horses that will pay for themselves over their racing career. A pedigree is the foundation of the animal
and once chosen and fulfilled in terms of a foal, it cannot be changed. The
choice of the correct sire is therefore the most important decision a breeder
can make and this decision cannot be made correctly without a knowledge of the
facts. Guessing and rumour do not replace facts.
One fact that is evident is that a study of the top
performers by any sire can produce a profile of the type of mares with which he
has success. This sire profile is established in his first racing crop and does not
vary. This fact alone is almost totally ignored by breeders who continue to
breed mares that do not fit the profile of the sires they choose, with their
decisions being based on “flavour of the day”, economic or location factors
that doom their decisions from the start.
Based on the statistical evidence it is my recommendation
that breeders, whenever possible, should outcross on sire line and line breed
maternally for the best chance of success.
This approach is universally successfull as shown by my experience on a recent trip to Sweden for the Elitlop. One only needs to look at the pedigrees of Elitlop winner Nahar and
three year old filly winner on the same program Massive Babe to see how this is so.
Elitlopp winner Nahar is outcrossed on sire line, with a
sire line through Coktail Jet (Speedy Scot line) and a broodmare sire line through Stars Pride.
He is linebred maternally to both Super Bowl and Speedy Crown. His sire, Love
You, has a well established profile when bred to North American based pedigrees
which shows a preference for mares with principal lines through Speedy Crown
and Super Bowl. This is a fact – and breeding mares to him that do not fit this
profile is a waste of time and money in addition to spoiling the reputation of
the mare and the breeder.
Massive Babe is outcrossed on sire line being by a Valley
Victory line sire and from a Noble Victory line dam by Andover Hall. She is linebred maternally
to Arnie Almahurst and to Speedy Crown. Muscle Mass, her sire, has maternal
lines through Pine Chip (Arnie Almahurst line) and Valley Victory (Speedy Crown
line). While his first crop has been modestly successful there are just two of
his first crop that were correctly bred for top performance being this filly
and another called Muscle Magic who was the only Muscle Mass to compete
successfully at the Gold level in Ontario last year. This was a mystery to me given the obvious and plentifull choice of mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall for this sire - yet such breedings were virtually non existent. His best two year old to date this year is Muscle Matters, dam by Conway Hall so he may fare better this year.
Based on the sire profile for a similar sire, Glidemaster, I
was able to predict that these two fillies were bred correctly before they
raced. Glidemaster, like Muscle Mass, is by a son of Valley Victory and from a
dam that combines Arnie Almahurst and Speedy Crown lines. His best by far is
the mare called Maven, and like Massive Babe is outcrossed on sire line and
linebred maternally to both Arnie Almahurst and Speedy Crown. This fact alone
based on the established profile of Glidemaster and other similar sires would
have allowed you to choose Massive Babe as a yearling purchase with
considerable confidence in her chances for success. Glidemaster has been a disappointing sire to date but dont blame the horse, blame the breeders who missed the opportunity presented to breed some of the many Andover and Conway Hall mares in PA and NY.
In Europe in particular there is a considerable emphasis on
reducing the degree of linebreeding as a result of a fixation with low
inbreeding co-efficients. Breeders of all types of animals have recognized for
centuries that a degree of linebreeding is necessary to fix certain qualities
in the breed. One of these qualities is consistency. It is an established fact
that low inbreeding coefficients lead to increased randomness in results. There
is still the opportunity for an exceptional performer because of the extreme
outcross nature of many European breedings but the percentage of failure is
much higher. But you can also find, even in French breeding, where close maternal line
breeding is rare, such champions as Jag de Bellouet and Offshore Dream that
have maternal line breeding similar to North American practice. In fact much of the
recent success of French breeding is attributable to J P Dubois who is a strong
advocate on maternal linebreeding with such sires as Super Bowl, Speedy Somolli
and Florestan doubled in his best horses.
I would add one more example of what is shaping up to be an exceptional filly. Her name is Struck By Lindy. She is by first crop sire Explosive Matter and set a PA Sires record of 1.56.4f in her third start. Explosive Matter is line bred to Valley Victory and from a mare that is linebred to Speedy Crown. His sire, Cantab Hall, is out of a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall. The dam of Struck By Lindy is by Angus Hall and the maternal sequence then goes to Valley Victory and Speedy Crown which is the same maternal sequence of sire lines in Explosive Matter. Add to this the sibling cross of Self Possessed on the sire line to that of his sister Dream On Victory on the maternal line and you have a complete package, outcrossed on sire line and extensively linebred maternally. Frank Antonacci of Lindy Farms obviously gets it.
Let me conclude by emphasising again that what I have said above is not opinion but is based on fact. Breeders should make sure they base their decisions on nothing less.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Shadow Play Update
The two year old pacing fillies in Ontario produced two more Gold elim winners by Shadow Play with three others finishing second or third. The fastest was Book Babe in 1.52.3 and like the top colts she fit the profile perfectly being from a Life Sign mare that is inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally through Albatross and the No Nukes line (Oil Burner). The other winner was Alibi Seelster from a Cam Fella line dam inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper and with a second dam by Big Towner.
The three runners up included Performing Art - Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross, Yoselin Seelster (a $2000 buy at Forest City) - Artsplace dam inbred to Meadow Skipper, and Nefertiti Bluechip, a Cam Fella line dam inbred to Abercrombie maternally.
Three of the top four to date have Big Towner (Gene Abbe) 2nd or 3rd dams in addition to Albatross maternally which reflects the maternal side of The Panderosa, sire of Shadow Play who also combines Gene Abbe and Albatross lines maternally. This is a unique aspect to the profile that makes Shadow Play somewhat different from Rocknroll Hanover who is by Western Ideal (Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper maternally) In general though the pattern of success for Shadow Play, as predicted, is remarkably similar to that of Rocknroll Hanover. So far 12 of the top 16 by Shadow Play are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred to Meadow Skipper, usually through Albatross or in combination with the No Nukes line versus 11/16 for Rocknroll Hanover. There are four from Meadow Skipper line dams, three of these being Cam Fella line and all inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally, for Shadow Play, while all five of the Meadow Skipper line dams in Rocknroll's top 16 are Cam Fella line and inbred to Meadow Skipper.
A remarkable example of how you can use the profile of a proven stallion to predict the pattern of success for a new sire with similar maternal lines.
The three runners up included Performing Art - Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross, Yoselin Seelster (a $2000 buy at Forest City) - Artsplace dam inbred to Meadow Skipper, and Nefertiti Bluechip, a Cam Fella line dam inbred to Abercrombie maternally.
Three of the top four to date have Big Towner (Gene Abbe) 2nd or 3rd dams in addition to Albatross maternally which reflects the maternal side of The Panderosa, sire of Shadow Play who also combines Gene Abbe and Albatross lines maternally. This is a unique aspect to the profile that makes Shadow Play somewhat different from Rocknroll Hanover who is by Western Ideal (Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper maternally) In general though the pattern of success for Shadow Play, as predicted, is remarkably similar to that of Rocknroll Hanover. So far 12 of the top 16 by Shadow Play are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred to Meadow Skipper, usually through Albatross or in combination with the No Nukes line versus 11/16 for Rocknroll Hanover. There are four from Meadow Skipper line dams, three of these being Cam Fella line and all inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally, for Shadow Play, while all five of the Meadow Skipper line dams in Rocknroll's top 16 are Cam Fella line and inbred to Meadow Skipper.
A remarkable example of how you can use the profile of a proven stallion to predict the pattern of success for a new sire with similar maternal lines.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Shadow Play - Early results
When I looked at the yearlings by Shadow Play before the yearling sales I had difficulty finding many that fit the expected profile. There were 74 offspring selling, 36 of them colts. Unfortunately most of the breeders had guessed wrong and there were just 7 colts that I could recommend.
Shadow Play is similar to Rocknroll Hanover in pedigree makeup being by a son of Western Hanover and from a mare that combines Direct Scooter with an Adios line. The #1 profile factor for Rocknroll Hanover is for non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper, a son or Albatross line, of have Albatross - No Nukes combinations maternally. Cam Fella line mares with similar inbreeding through Meadow Skipper or that have Direct Scooter and Albatross maternally are secondary considerations as are mares that have the Direct Scooter - Adios combination..
Here are the colts I liked and recommended for purchase accordingly. Rating is next to the name.
Shadversary 101 - 1.50.4 Harrisburg . Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross maternally, second dam by No Nukes. Qualified and will race in the Callbeck Stakes on Monday
Silverhill Shadow 100 - 1.50.0 Atlantic Classic. Dam by a son of Matts Scooter, second dam by an Adios line sire through Abercrombie.. Qualified in 1.59.1h and will race in the Callbeck stakes on Monday
Arthur Blue Chip 98 - 1.51.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.53.4 last night.
Shadowbriand 96 - 1.50.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.54.4 last night
Shadow Margeaux 95 - 1.50.2 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Raced in Ontario Grassroots Thursday night, double parked to the quarter by a rookie driver and faded.
Settlemoir Hanover 94 - 1.50.0 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished fifth in Ontario Gold elim last night, race timed in 1.54.4, last quarter in 27 seconds.
Twin B Shadow 65 - 1.51.4 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished third in Ontario Gold Grassroots on Thursday night race timed in 1.54.2
There was one other colt by Shadow Play that won a Grassroots on Thursday called Reasonable Force who won in 1.54.4. His dam is Cam Fella Line and is double inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. I missed him in the Harrisburg entries but he did fit the secondary consideration of Cam Fella line dams inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. He was the fourth foal from an unraced dam that had produced nothing to date. There were no other Shadow Play colts in the money in the first Grassroots and Gold elims.
It pays to check for the right pedigree before you write the cheque.
Shadow Play is similar to Rocknroll Hanover in pedigree makeup being by a son of Western Hanover and from a mare that combines Direct Scooter with an Adios line. The #1 profile factor for Rocknroll Hanover is for non Meadow Skipper line mares that are inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper, a son or Albatross line, of have Albatross - No Nukes combinations maternally. Cam Fella line mares with similar inbreeding through Meadow Skipper or that have Direct Scooter and Albatross maternally are secondary considerations as are mares that have the Direct Scooter - Adios combination..
Here are the colts I liked and recommended for purchase accordingly. Rating is next to the name.
Shadversary 101 - 1.50.4 Harrisburg . Artsplace dam inbred to Albatross maternally, second dam by No Nukes. Qualified and will race in the Callbeck Stakes on Monday
Silverhill Shadow 100 - 1.50.0 Atlantic Classic. Dam by a son of Matts Scooter, second dam by an Adios line sire through Abercrombie.. Qualified in 1.59.1h and will race in the Callbeck stakes on Monday
Arthur Blue Chip 98 - 1.51.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.53.4 last night.
Shadowbriand 96 - 1.50.1 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Won Ontario Gold elim in 1.54.4 last night
Shadow Margeaux 95 - 1.50.2 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam with second dam by No Nukes. Raced in Ontario Grassroots Thursday night, double parked to the quarter by a rookie driver and faded.
Settlemoir Hanover 94 - 1.50.0 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished fifth in Ontario Gold elim last night, race timed in 1.54.4, last quarter in 27 seconds.
Twin B Shadow 65 - 1.51.4 Harrisburg. Artsplace dam inbred maternally to Albatross. Finished third in Ontario Gold Grassroots on Thursday night race timed in 1.54.2
There was one other colt by Shadow Play that won a Grassroots on Thursday called Reasonable Force who won in 1.54.4. His dam is Cam Fella Line and is double inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. I missed him in the Harrisburg entries but he did fit the secondary consideration of Cam Fella line dams inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper. He was the fourth foal from an unraced dam that had produced nothing to date. There were no other Shadow Play colts in the money in the first Grassroots and Gold elims.
It pays to check for the right pedigree before you write the cheque.
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