Double - Double Yearlings

Add Tall Drink Hanover, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.

There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.

Lexington Yearlings and The Double-Double

More yearlings than usual will be for sale at the Lexington, Kentucky sale this year scheduled for October with 720 being an increase of 160 over the 2017 sale. Lexington will also add a mixed sale after the yearling sale as the demand for racehorses and quality broodmares has greatly increased with consequent higher prices resulting from the sharp decrease in the overall horse population over the past few years.

Harrisburg sale shows a drop from last year in terms of yearlings in Book 1 although there may be some added to their mixed sale as was the case last year when they reduced their yearling sessions to three from four.

Lexington will give buyers their first look at sires like Sebastian K and Artspeak, the two most prominent first crop offerings. Father Patrick and Captaintreacherous will be back with the biggest consignments although neither has exactly overwhelmed the opposition in their first crop to the races this year.

Sebastian K is a world record holder by Korean, a French bred sire, and with a maternal line that may be hard to connect with. His dam is by Probe, a son of Super Bowl, second dam by The Prophet, a grandson of the Axworthy sire Florican. There is a Speedy Crown line as the dam of Probe but nowhere else in the pedigree. Based on similar sires I would expect him to do well with mares that are linebred or inbred to Speedy Crown and that also have Super Bowl maternally and there are, surprisingly, not that many in this group of 19 yearlings. Just four fit my expected profile and the pedigrees are modest with ratings in the 70's.

Artspeak has a maternal line of Artsplace - Matts Scooter, the same as Well Said. I'm not sure if that is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view, but Well Said and Artspeak have both been relocated from Hanover Farms to Ohio and Ontario respectively. There are just 9 Artspeak yearlings in Lexington in contrast to the 41 in Harrisburg but there is one that is a double-double pedigree - see if you can find him.

Speaking of double-double pedigrees the latest one to surface is Swandre The Giant, undefeated in 7 starts in his rookie season. By Swan For All and from a dam line bred to Speedy Somolli, as is the dam of Swan For All, and complimented by lines through Arnie Almahurst and Super Bowl, the maternal lines of Andover Hall, sire of Swan For All, the pedigree is virtually the same as for World Champion Hannelore Hanover. History does repeat itself especially with pedigrees. That is why it is important to recognize and use Sire profiles in selecting breedings or yearlings.

Swandre The Giant sold with a rating of 71 - 1.54.1 for $17,000 at last year's Hoosier Classic and was bought by Anthony MacDonald of PEI for his fractional ownership enterprise The Stable. He was subsequently sold shortly after the sale to the current owners who just might have recognized the chance for greatness that the pedigree of Swandre The Giant showed. He now moves to the barn of Jimmy Takter after selling for an undisclosed price of seven figures. The next great sire ?

As our slogan goes Percentages - Patterns - Profiles, Know them, Recognize them, breed or own a Champion.

2018 Yearling Sales

Profiles and ratings are now available on the Pedigree Matching site for the New York (Goshen, Morrisville), Alberta and Ohio Jug sales. The recommendations for the Goshen and Morrisville sales are combined in the Ratings report. Sire profiles for all sires represented will be available shortly with some already posted.

You can access sale and sire profiles as well as Rating reports on the PM site.

Harrisburg list should be available shortly in addition to the Canadian Open sale in London, Ontario. Others to follow when available from Lexington, Indiana, and the Ohio Buckeye.

Pricing for Ratings reports remains the same as last year. Lexington and Harrisburg are $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, New York breds etc. Other sales are $250. Sale profiles are $50 per sale.

First Crop Sires - Part 2

Trixton and E L Titan

These two sons of Muscle Hill are from a full sister and a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall and are by a Valley Victory line sire.  Cantab Hall is by a Valley Victory line sire and is also from a full sister in blood to the Hall boys. That makes these stallions easy to figure out since the profile for Cantab Hall is well established. There will be some differences due to the influence of the maternal lines of Muscle Hill whose dam is line bred to Stars Pride but the expected profile remains essentially the same as for Cantab Hall whose best 20 have the following characteristics.

1. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Speedy Crown, a son and/or an Arndon line. (17)

2. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Stars Pride or to Noble Victory line that also have Speedy Crown or a son or an Arndon line maternally. (2)

3. Mares with no Speedy Crown maternally (1)

15 of the top 20 by Cantab Hall have a maternal line through Stars Pride, a son or the Super Bowl line. Since Muscle Hill is linebred maternally to Stars Pride you can expect the Stars Pride influence on the success of Trixton and E L Titan to be even more pronounced with more Stars Pride line mares than is the case for Cantab Hall where the balance in the top 20 is 12 to 8 in favour of Valley Victory or Pine Chip line mares. There may even be more mares that succeed with no Speedy Crown maternally although these are understandably rare.

Based on the above there are quite a few possibilities in the Lexington, Harrisburg and Forest City sales and my top choices are as follows.

Trixton

Cheap Tricks - Harrisburg #99 - 093 - 1.51.4

Miss Trixton - Lexington  #38 - 110 - 1.51.0

E L Titan

Checkmate Titan - Harrisburg #673 - 076 - 1.52.4
Djokover - Lexington #141 - 091 - 1.50.0
Lefkada - Forest City #99 - 084 - 1.52.2

First Crop Sires

First Crop Sires in 2017

This year's yearling sales feature the first yearlings by some stellar racehorses. Captaintreacherous and Trixton are the ones most people are looking forward to buying, if they can afford them that is. In addition to Captaintreacherous the pacing yearlings will also have first offerings from other sons of Somebeachsomewhere such as Sunshine Beach, and from great performers like Sweet Lou. The trotting sires joining Trixton as first timers include other sons of Muscle Hill like E L Titan,  plus Father Patrick, Royalty For Life, and Uncle Peter.

Established sires have all shown, through their sire profiles, the type of mare with which they succeed. Even the second crop sires such as A Rocknroll Dance and Archangel have developed a pattern of success that can now be used to separate the few with a reasonable chance of success from the many that do not. But how do you know what kind of mares the first crop sires will succeed with?  The answer most likely is to be found in the profiles of similar sires, especially those with similar maternal lines.

The maternal lines of Captaintreacherous are Artsplace and Nihilator and he has a very strong maternal family that includes successful and would be sires such as Art Major, Real Artist, Perfect Art, Panspacificflight, World Of Rocknroll, Beachtrea and Wake Up Peter, in addition to several world champion performers on the track.

On the surface this appears to be a cant-miss sire but there are some question marks. In addition to World of Rocknroll, from a full sister to the dam of Captaintreacherous, there is Kenneth J who has the same maternal combination of Artsplace and Nihilator. Both have horses of racing age and neither has so far shown any great or consistent siring ability. Kenneth J's best from 247 of racing age is Murder She Wrote with $192K made and he has now left the North America stallion ranks. Even in failure, however, we can pick up some useful information. Of his 8 winners of over $100K five are from mares by sons of Abercrombie or Artsplace, and two others have Abercrombie or a son maternally. The lone exception is from a Jennas Beach Boy mare that is both line bred and inbred to the Meadow Skipper line. This inbreeding to the Meadow Skipper line occurs in all eight of Kenneth J's best and features a maternal line mare by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line as one or both of the inbred lines.

World Of Rocknroll also has eight winners of over $100K and although the Abercrombie connection is not as prominent with five such mares, the Meadow Skipper connection through mares line bred or inbred is also present in all eight.

Looking at the broader context of sires with Artsplace dams we find a strikingly similar situation especially with regard to the presence of Albatross in the dams of the best performers. There are 23 such sires with foals of racing age and the best in terms of top performers is Western Terror with a success rate of 18.2%. The overall success rate for sires with Artsplace dams, however, is just 10.2% and considerably shy of the 15% level for "just average" sires. Artsplace was a 24.4% sire and is 19.6% as a broodmare sire but those stats do not necessarily carry on to the next generation. Other current sires with Artsplace dams and several crops racing include Canyon Wind (13.4%),  Well Said (12.1%), Rock N Roll Heaven (11.3%), Metropolitan (11.7%), If I Can Dream (9.4%), Artistic Fella (9.1%), Big Bad John (5.4%), P Forty Seven (7.2%), Vintage Master (2.6%), Kenneth J (5.5%), World Of Rocknroll (6.7%).

None of these sires, however, are by the great Somebeachsomewhere and that may make a difference but then again maybe it will not. His first two sons with progeny racing are So Surreal and Net Ten Eom. So Surreal was a fast but unsound son of the great Artsplace mare Must See, dam of Well Said. He has one decent one from his first crop of 52 two year olds that has made just over $85K in Azreal As It Gets and true to form this one is from a mare linebred to Meadow Skipper. Net Ten Eom is from an equally well respected Artsplace mare in Glowing Report, but like So Surreal was unsound as a racehorse and is struggling in his first crop of 72 with the best earning just $14,560 so far. His profile also is showing a preference for mares line bred or inbred to Meadow Skipper.

There is an old theory first written about in the original Care And Training of the Trotter And Pacer published by the USTA. In the chapter on breeding the author, James C Harrison, wrote "All of the foundation sires of the breed were relatively short bred maternally in the sense that none of the female families that produced them ever established lasting maternal families of their own"  Does this mean that stallions from top quality mares such as Must See and Glowing Report, are doomed to failure?  The family of Somebeachsomewhere is nowhere to be found in the top 300 maternal families. His maternal line goes back to Rosa (1868) and it took 100 years before Lil Miss Thompson was born and subsequently produced the first $100K winner , Jambooger by Albatross, in 1974. Researching the descendents of Lil Miss Thompson shows just 38 winners of over $100K before Somebeachsomewhere came along. The best one was Giveittoemstraight ($613K) from a 3/4 sister to the second dam of Somebeachsomewhere.

If I was buying a yearling by Captaintreacherous it looks like I should focus on the mares line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line that have Albatross and Abercrombie maternally through sons or daughters. That still leaves you with a lot to choose from. In Harrisburg my top pick would be Flameproof Hanover 124 - 1.48.2, and in Lexington it would be the filly Treacherous Trails 129 - 1.48.1.

2017 Yearling Ratings

Ratings are now available for all North American yearling sales. The ratings are based on :

1. The yearling fits the established or predicted profile of the sire
2. The speed and earnings values in the pedigree are sufficient to produce at least a regional stakes winner.

The ratings are designed to eliminate wasting your time looking at and bidding on yearlings with little or no chance of success based on pedigree and the family history.

Reports for Harrisburg and Lexington are available for $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, NY eligibles etc.

Reports for Ohio, New York, Canada and Indiana sales cost $250 each.

You can also order a segmented report on all NY yearlings in all sales or Ontario, NJ, or PA yearlings for $300

Conformation is an important part of yearling selection. Using an adjustment of + or - 50 points on the ratings can bring lower rated individuals into consideration and disqualify higher rated yearlings.

To order reports use the Paypal option on the pedigreematching.com website.

The top twelve two year olds in earnings this year from last year's sales were all listed in the PM ratings for 2016.

Yearling Ratings

PEDIGREE MATCHING GLOBETROTTER

PRESENTS

THE 2016 YEARLING RATINGS

Breaking News -

Another grand slam of 2YO NY Championship winners
Tequila Monday - Rated 96 - 1.48.0, sold at Harrisburg for $40,000
Funknwaffles - Rated 81 - 1.49.4, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Devious Man - Rated 48 - 1.54.2, sold at Harrisburg for $62,000
Barn Bella - Rated 62 - 1.54.0, sold at Morrisville

A grand slam at The Ontario Grassroots Championships for PM rated winners.
Tymal Peacemaker - Rated 72 - 1.49.3, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000
Magical Steph - Rated 97 - 1.53.2, sold at Harrisburg for $50,000
Forever Liza - Rated 105 - 1.50.1, sold at Lexington for $65,000
Arsenic - Rated 85 - 1.51.0, sold at Harrisburg for $25,000

World Record
Downbytheseaside sets world record 1.50.0h - PM Rated at 91 - 1.49 in Lexington.

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250

Yearlings by the top sires in North America are rated for pedigree and performance potential including all yearlings at all major sale venues.

The tables in the reports identify all rated yearlings for sale and rank them according to a Performance Rating (PR) based on the earnings and speed in their immediate family. An estimate is also given for three year old record on a mile track as part of the rating. The PR number is used to prioritize the inspection process for yearlings that can be expected to be top performers based on pedigree. It is very possible that a yearling with a rating in the 60-80s can turn out better than any of the top rated yearlings as a result of conformation and other factors such as something special in the pedigree that cannot be quantified. A PR of 60 for pacers and 45 for trotters is usually the minimum required to produce a performer capable of earning $100K lifetime. The maximum possible is 150.

Many of the top rated yearlings are full or half brothers to top performers and as such will command premium prices. Full siblings to great horses have a one in seven chance of being as good or better. The risk / reward ratio is very high considering the price you have to pay unless the conformation is outstanding.

In sales such as Harrisburg and Lexington the yearlings are seeded both on pedigree and conformation. The ratings provided here are based strictly on pedigree and should be adjusted based on conformation accordingly. A suggested conformation rating of + or – 50 points should be applied. Deweycheatumnhowe was rated as 78 - 51.3 when sold as a yearling, the 37^th pick in Kentucky. A +40 on conformation would have put him among the top 10. Similarily Somebeachsomewhere rated 83 -  49.2 (56^th) but his conformation put him amongst the best pacers in the same sale.

The top earning trotter to date from the sales in 2015 is What The Hill rated at 077 – 1.52.3 and selling for $65,000 in Lexington sale, the top pacer to date is Beyond Delight with a rating of 077 – 1.51.3 sold for $50,000 in the Harrisburg sale. This demonstrates the need for close inspection since these two must have been exceptional physical individuals to make up for their relatively modest ratings. Indeed many of the yearlings from last year with ratings over 100 have so far not shown up to race - you can find out why in the following excerpts from my book Queen Among Queens.

INTRODUCTION

The horse racing world is full of pedigree theories, beliefs, old wives tales and opinions when it comes to making the most important decisions that breeders or buyers must make – What to breed and what to buy with respect to pedigree. The success or failure of an investment in a race-horse hinges on these crucial decisions and a wrong decision can be at the least very expensive.

One fact that the reader should be aware of is that the pedigree of the horse, once chosen and delivered in the form of a foal, cannot be changed. The breeder can change the environment within which the foal is raised using best practices, the buyer can retain the best trainer available and protect his investment in other ways. The end result, however, if the pedigree is incorrect, is that best practices in breeding and ownership cannot reverse a bad stallion choice, making that decision the most important one a breeder can make, and the buyer recognize.

A breeder has limited opportunity to make correct stallion decisions for each mare since after several failed matings the damage to the mare and to the breeders reputation is essentially done and the future success of both is compromised. Success is the result of all of the confident decisions you make. Confidence comes from knowing the facts and being able to sort out fact from fiction.

Another fact that is indisputable is that less than 5% of the foals produced in North America will pay for themselves over their lifetime based on the ability to earn $100,000 or more. Such a return on investment is clearly inadequate to sustain the interest in both breeding and buying standardbreds. It is little wonder that we see that the number of industry participants is shrinking.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to improve your percentages.

If, as someone once said, the pedigree is only 18% of what makes a great horse is true, then also consider the fact that it is the first 18% and if it is incorrect the other 82% is a waste of everyone’s time, effort and money. The most important percentage in the purchase or breeding of a top performer is the first 18%, the correct pedigree.

In the words of John Wallace, compiler of the first Standardbred Register  “ It is in no spirit of banter or bravado that I invite criticism in a gentlemanly and courteous way. I am just as liable to be wrong as other men, and when wrong it is for my own good as well as for the public, that I should be set right.”

I welcome your comments and suggestions and wish you well in your future purchases.

Norman Hall

Pedigree Matching

BUYING A YEARLING

There are many horses that have high speed but make little or no money.  Similarly there are many horses that judging by their parents should be world champions but are complete failures on the track and in the breeding shed. An examination of the pedigree will allow you to avoid such horses and focus on the ones with true earnings potential. Pedigrees can be presented in several ways and indeed can also be interpreted in different ways. Most people who attend harness racing are probably familiar with wagering on the races and the variety of ways there are to handicap the horses and try to pick the winners. Evaluating pedigrees is much the same process. Numbers, statistics and patterns are what you look at and the relative importance you put on these in combination is a very individual thing.

The pedigree page in a typical sales catalog is much like the page in a race program only the time lines are extended back several generations. Instead of racelines you are looking at bloodlines with performance numbers attached which show the speed and earnings of individuals in the family. At the top of the catalog page is the pedigree tree that typically lists the first three generations of the ancestors. Quite often, however, it is important to dig deeper into the family tree to look for pedigree patterns that may exist but for now let us look at what we can see on the page.

Catalogs vary in form and content and additional information usually provided includes the order of sale or hip number, consignor, sex, birth date, an owners statement and stakes engagements if any. While all of this additional information is needed in making a final purchase decision we must first concentrate on the most important facts presented, how fast and how much money. Due to space limitations it is not always possible to show every individual in the immediate family, in fact most catalog pages are of interest as much for what you don’t see as for what is printed on the page. Not all sales companies provide data on the number of previous foals especially the ones that did not race.

Sales pages feature what is called “BLACK TYPE” where the horses that have gone fast, made money or won a stake race are shown in bold capital letters. There is a difference, though, between one black typed individual and another. To be eligible for such prominence a horse has to have a record of 2:00 or better, have made $100,000 or more lifetime, or has won a minor stake race anywhere in North America. These are modest standards indeed in today’s market and badly in need of revision. Clearly it is very easy to be blinded by the black type at first glance. A closer look can reveal the true value of the horse in question. One way to do this is to assign a value to the pedigree based on a rating scale that takes into consideration the speed and earnings in the family just as some trainers use a similar point scale to rate the individual on conformation.

Before going through such calculations, however, which could take some considerable time for a catalog with several hundred horses, let us look to see if there are other ways in which we can confidently screen the list down to a more manageable number.

We will deal with what is perhaps the most important screening tool, the correct pedigree, later but there are other factors that are commonly used to reduce the number of horses to be physically inspected? Here are some of the most common.

1. Previous production of the dam
2. Racing or breeding jurisdiction
3. Consignor reputation
4. Birth month
5. Colour
6. Patterns of success
7. The Golden Cross
8. The flavour of the day

There are likely other such factors but do any of them have any merit ?

Previous Production of the Dam

In some cases the horse for sale is a first foal. This is a situation that has stirred much debate. If you do a statistical analysis of first foals you will find a surprisingly large percentage turn out to be the best of the mare’s lifetime production. You can verify this by taking any random number of pages of the USTA Sires and Dams book and doing the math. There is indeed a bias in favour of first foals but it is largely influenced by first foal colts – not fillies.

First foals tend to be smaller than average and fillies smaller still, was one veterinarians explanation for this bias against first foal fillies. Factors that seemed to exclude fillies from the risk inherent in their birthright are early foaling dates and mothers that themselves showed early speed. All of this, however, is strictly conjecture based on random impression and, in the absence of a study that shows the facts, is not the sort of thing on which to shorten the list early. If at the end of your analysis of all factors you have to choose between a first foal filly and one that is from a dam that has already produced something then it may become important to the final decision.

In the case of a mare that has already produced there are a number of things to watch for. First of all are all of the previous foals identified in some way? If they are not on the page you can get this information from other industry sources. It is important to know since there is another bias at work in the breeding industry and that is foal order based on how many foals the mare has already produced. Just as there appears to be a success bias towards early foals in birth order there also appears to be a failure bias towards later foals. Again you can test this out by looking at the production of mares with long breeding records and you will see that after the sixth foal there is a definite drop in success rate in producing significant performers.

Before you start putting lines through the catalog pages of late birth order foals, however, you should be aware that Gallo Blue Chip, one of the winningest pacers of all time was a 10th foal and there are others such as Grinfromeartoear who was an 11th foal or even Muscles Yankee who was a 7th foal and might have been eliminated on a six foal rule.

As a rule of thumb, rather than a rule based on fact, however, the use of birth order as a screening tool can dramatically reduce the number of horses that you end up looking at. You should look at the exceptions to see why they might have beaten the apparent bias they face. Sometimes it is a case of the mare finally getting bred to the right stallion, or the mare shows a high percentage of successful previous foals. Foal order decisions without caveats are fine provided you are prepared to miss out on the odd great horse.

Racing or breeding jurisdiction

Whether buying yearlings or broodmares there is clearly a need to have an objective in mind with respect to where you want to race or breed. It is important for long term success to have a strategy that allows you to be competitive within your means. There are opportunities in every sale that allow you to do this.

In the larger yearling sales you will find horses from several jurisdictions and it is a relatively simple process to eliminate those that don’t fit your racing objectives. The same can be said for the sex and gait of the yearling since there are selective shoppers who are only interested in trotting fillies or pacing colts.

Buying yearlings to compete at the highest level usually means paying premium prices if you rely strictly on the face value of the pedigree page. There are, however, individuals in every sale that fit your objectives and your pocket book that you may miss out on by being too selective on what may be considered non critical factors.

Consignor reputation

This is another subjective screening tool that can see you missing out on good opportunities. It is clearly an important consideration since consignors are very conscious of their successes and not shy in making them known. The issue, however, goes beyond just having some successful previous consignments. Many of the yearlings are consigned through agents and you never get to know much about the actual breeder or the farm where the yearling was raised. The larger farms can be assumed to be operating with best practices but how about the smaller breeders? To the extent it is possible it is a worthwhile exercise to find out the facts ahead of the sale either through a farm visit or a conversation with someone who has been there.

Birth month

This is another of those controversial issues that pops up in the trade magazines when someone does a random survey and finds another bias that may or may not be significant. Because of the racing environment in North America, with its emphasis on big purse, early stakes for two year olds, there is a general concern regarding foaling date. It is based on possible maturity issues for foals born late in the season from mid May on. There are many ways to look at the results of various studies that have been done and there are so many factors involved other than the date of birth that no clear rule is possible to identify with confidence. One thing is sure, however, and that is such situations can present bargain opportunities when the right horse comes along with the “wrong” birth date.

Colour

Like foaling date, the colour of the yearling is the stuff of “old wives tales” when it comes to making a purchase. You either like a certain colour or you don’t but there is no significant bias that I am aware of other than the old saw about chestnuts and white feet, that is worthy of comment or consideration. Since both chestnuts and white feet are rapidly being bred out of the gene pool there is little to fear from a color bias and certainly little use for it as a screening tool.

Patterns Of Success

A Pattern of Success can be as simple as the position in the pedigree tree of certain ancestors or as complicated as counting up the number of times the pedigree traces back to some obscure ancestor that you consider important. You will hear horsemen talk about Speedy Crown being 3x4 in a pedigree or Adios 4x5 with the numbers referring to the generation where the individual occurs in a generational pedigree chart. Such patterns often have significance but are by no means failsafe or consistent from sire to sire.

In fact when you get familiar with pedigrees you will find that, just as in handicapping the races, the patterns of success inevitably have exceptions. It is important to remember, however, that success in owning Standardbreds, like all other sports, is a game of percentages and those who play the percentages in their favour will be the ones to succeed.

To play the percentages you have to know them. One key measuring stick to use in assessing pedigrees is the percentage of performers by a sire that earn $100,000 or more. Typically a successful sire will average 15% or better. Within that statistic, however, are certain matings with a much higher chance of success resulting in what the industry calls a “golden cross”. Close analysis of this golden cross information shows, however, that such statistics can be misleading as we shall see.

A yearling is clearly much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed every sire has a profile, or pattern, in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

The Golden Cross

It is a favorite saying of many knowledgeable breeders that “the best sires of yesterday are the best broodmare sires of today”. This makes eminently good sense since it is a natural extension of a similar vein in the phrase “the best race horses make the best sires”. There are, of course, rare exceptions but again the percentages of breeding favor those who follow these mantras in general but there is a caveat.

The broodmare sire, alone, does not make the mare any more than the sire, alone, can make a top performer. Nor is it wise to assume that the sire needs only a top broodmare sire to work with, as the followers of the “golden cross” would have us believe.

Occasionally you will see top performers by a sire that are so much better than any others by the same sire or that have the same sire – broodmare sire combination. Such is very definitely the case for Gallo Blue Chip.

Gallo Blue Chip earned almost $4.3 million and is the richest performer from an Albatross mare and this makes Magical Mike, when crossed with Albatross mares, the sire with the highest average earnings per performer at $90,000 on the USTA golden cross list.

There are, however, 82 horses of racing age, other than Gallo Blue Chip, with the Magical Mike – Albatross cross that collectively have made an average of $40,000. Indeed of the ones on the list as of this writing only eleven have made over $100,000 for a percentage of 13.2% versus the average for all sires with Albatross mares of 18.9%. Clearly Gallo Blue Chip was a unique individual but what is it in his pedigree that makes him so?

The key lies in the combination of sire lines that make up the full pedigree of Camatross, the dam of Gallo Blue Chip. The sire profile of Magical Mike shows that the presence of Albatross is indeed a common feature in his top performers but there are other sire lines that combine with Albatross to complete the pattern of success for Magical Mike.

Gallo Blue Chip has a second dam by Bye Bye Byrd and, apart from his five full brothers and sisters, is the only one of the 84 by Magical Mike from Albatross mares that is bred that way. There are three others that have second dams by sons of Bye Bye Byrd but they did nothing special. Gallo Blue Chip had a unique pedigree that fitted into the general profile of success of his sire but at the same time his dam was one of a kind among the Albatross mares bred to Magical Mike.

By now we are getting a sense of how important the broodmare as a total package is and how the sire is only part, although an important part, of any one mare. The Standardbred of today is truly a “sum” of its parts and not just “some” of its parts. A yearling or broodmare is much more than just a combination of a sire and a broodmare sire and indeed, as has already been noted, and cannot be over emphasized, every sire has a profile in relation to the mares with which he has most success.

Flavour Of The Day

Who is the hot sire this year? It is amazing how fickle yearling buyers are in their pursuit of a champion and indeed how naïve they are in thinking that because a certain sire has had one very good, perhaps outstanding, performer that his offspring this year at the sales will be the ones to buy.

Buying anything based on such a rationale is both expensive and very often futile. Buying a yearling or breeding a mare based on the attractiveness of a sire alone is not enough. If all there was to buying a yearling was selecting a fashionable sire then why do we need a full catalog page listing the pedigree and accomplishments of the family?

Screening factors such as the ones discussed have one obvious flaw and that is the possibility that there is a another Gallo Blue Chip among the yearlings that have been rejected by their use before checking out the one thing that really matters – the correctness or otherwise of the pedigree. Many of the factors used by buyers to justify their purchases have no real rationale founded in fact and are merely impressions drawn from a cursory look at the information listed on the catalog page.

Like any other serious investment your chances of success are greatly improved when you understand the fundamentals of the business and make use of all the tools and information at your disposal to make the confident decisions needed to improve your percentages.

The most important percentage in my mind, however, is the first 18%, the right pedigree.

The only factor that can be used with confidence is the correctness of the pedigree – does it fit the stallion’s profile - the proven or predicted pattern of success?

It is a relatively easy process to find out once you have learned how to do your homework. In today’s world of computers, high-speed communications and the Internet, we have a wealth of information upon which to make better, smarter, more confident decisions. Homework has never been easier and failing to do yours guarantees failed decisions.

PEDIGREE AND CONFORMATION

In any decision on breeding it is important to distinguish between the characteristics you can see, the physical, from those you cannot, the metaphysical. The former are straightforward and include the many aspects of what is called conformation. It is an established practice in breeding to breed away from perceived faults that you can see in an animal such as large or small size, short legs, long pasterns, and even coat color by going to a sire that offers the opposite in the hope that the problem will be bred out of the offspring or in some cases averaged out...

An important consideration in gaited breeds such as trotters and pacers is of course the ability to trot or pace with a certain degree of ease and efficiency of motion. You might even include disposition or manners, which are attributes that are visually evident although not strictly physical in nature.

The metaphysical side of breeding is not as controllable since it involves both the mental and internal workings of the horse, factors that are perhaps more kindred to the “genotype” rather than the physical type. The desire to compete and win is, to my mind, an inherited trait that is metaphysical in nature. Intelligence and willingness to learn are other metaphysical attributes that can occur sporadically in the offspring of any one sire and dam.

In many ways the ultimate breed type for the performance horse has the components of a fast car. You want the best possible structure (conformation) with the least amount of drag or resistance (gait) and then you need the most powerful motor you can put under the hood (heart and lung function). A successful pedigree is one that recognizes the contributions of both the sire and the dam in providing these components.

From the sires (fathers) come many of the physical and conformation attributes of their offspring as demonstrated by the racing prowess of the sires involved. Speed, manners, conformation and gait are essential characteristics in a top sire in today’s world along with a demonstrated ability to win at the top levels of the sport

From the dams (mothers), in addition to complementing the contribution of the sire with respect to conformation, it would appear, based on my own and other research into maternal pedigrees, that there may be a mysterious genetic component we can call “heart” that lies dormant until it finds a matching component in the maternal lines of the sire. Finding and using this genetic key can be the difference between success and failure as a breeder or buyer of a top performer and the pedigree is the only road map we have to help us in that search.

Siring success is predictable based on identifying the principal sire lines at work in the dam and breeding to sires that carry the same maternal connections. This appears to occur regardless of the sex of the offspring. It is, therefore, possible to predict which mares are most suitable for which sires regardless of the names of the sires involved but based strictly on which maternal lines they carry.

BREEDING OR BUYING THE BEST

It seems to make sense that breeding the best to the best could result in producing the best. Not everyone, however, probably 99.9% of us, is able to own the “best” mares or can either access or afford the “best” sires. Such a proposal then is not only impractical it is also not grounded in fact. Now everyone is entitled to their opinion but opinion alone is not sufficient. It is fact that counts.

The results of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best are reflected in the overall lack of success by the breeders in North America in producing fewer than 5% of their foals to make enough money to pay for themselves over their racing life. We can do better. We must do better if we want to still have people interested in buying and racing horses. 5% is not an attractive return on investment in today's world.

TAKING THE ADVICE OF TRAINERS

I am a great fan of the great thoroughbred breeder Tesio and also of Marg Neal, a famous Canadian pedigree researcher, who was quoted in Hoofbeats as follows –

“There are a great many people out there today that will tell you there is no reason to look beyond the grandparents of any animal. I thoroughly disagree. It is, however, a handy position to take for those unwilling to do their homework”

“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change. I like to see a mare that is inbred, and a sire that is not.”

I can confirm the wisdom of Marg Neal since it is my own experience that the vast majority of breeders and buyers of Standardbred horses have little knowledge or interest in the “pedigree” beyond the first generation. It is seen to be something to be read, as a page in a catalog, circled, marked and ultimately discarded. More often than not the circles and marks are the result of popular name recognition or association rather than reflecting any understanding of the significance of the individual horses involved. This is particularly true of trainers in general who tend to approach pedigrees with the blinkers on. A client of mine once passed up on the opportunity to buy Bettors Delight because his trainer advised him that “all Cams Card Sharks are lame” – clearly not a true or objective statement to make. It is, however, typical of the kind of advice that owners will be faced with. The ability to sort out truth from fiction and keep an open mind is key to any purchase and trainers, albeit very good at managing horses, are not automatically so blessed.

FULL BROTHERS AND SISTERS TO GREAT HORSES

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus but it looks a lot like a lottery when it comes to producing a million dollar winner, even a $500,000 winner.

Albatross was the first of 13 foals from Voodoo Hanover and was the best by far of the 9 foals by Meadow Skipper. He is not alone, however, in being the only million dollar winner from any particular mare. In all of North American standardbred history there have been only 11 mares that have two or more in that category.

The first million dollar winner was the trotter Fresh Yankee, bought for $900 as a yearling by Duncan Macdonald of Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, and who was driven to her record by Joe O'Brien of Prince Edward Island. The first mare to produce two such individuals was Spiked Byrdie with Division Street in 1980 and Silver Almahurst in 1988. She also has the record of being the first mare to produce two $500,000 winners. There have been only 136 mares that have produced multiple $500,000 winners.

Production of million dollar winners took a jump to 16 in the 1982 foal crop from the previous year's record of 6. It would be ten more years before the 1991 crop managed 18 and another 8 years till the current high for any one crop year was set in 1999 with 26.

What does all this mean? Clearly the odds of getting one of these superior performers appears lottery like although the odds at 1 in 1235 (390 millionaires from 482,000 horses of racing age since 1960) are much better than the one in 30 million chance of typical large lottery wins here in Canada.

Many have speculated on the reasons why we have horses like Albatross and the failure of full siblings. Clearly we are not dealing with absolutes when breeding horses. As correctly noted by others there is too much opportunity for "luck" to intervene in the long road from conception to racing success or failure. Tesio, recognized as one of the greatest of all time horse breeders, was convinced that if you had the perfect match you would get, at best, one in four such breedings to result in a champion. Albatross was one of nine. On the other hand Lady Hathaway was 2 for 7 with full siblings, Rich N Elegant was 1 in 5 with Western Hanover and 3 in 5 when you consider $500,000 winners.

My own pet theory on the failure of siblings is what I call "Murphy's Law of Great Expectations" which seems to apply to situations where the first one of a series of full siblings is the best one. Then the trainers take over and train the subsequent ones with great expectations and run them into the ground trying to meet those expectations.

Whatever the reason, we are dealing with a percentage game as in all sports and whoever plays the percentages best wins the prize in the long run. Doing your homework on sire or yearling selection is one way to improve the percentages in your favour - 25% is much more attractive than the 4-5% that luck gives you and I'd happily take 1 in 9 if there was another Albatross among them.

A friend of mine has won several decent sized lottery prizes while I have seldom won more than a free ticket and the occasional $5. The difference? He researches the frequency and patterns of successful numbers and buys his tickets accordingly. Even in a lottery you can improve your odds if you want to take the time to do your homework. The same applies to handicapping the horse races. Then again you can sit back, play the guessing game and get what fate allows.

There is one very simple way to improve your percentages in buying successful standardbreds and that is to buy yearlings that are “outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally” and especially those whose dams are similarly bred. A review of the top performers by all current sires shows that 100 % show maternal inbreeding to a significant individual in the 3^rd or 4^th generation and over 85% are outcrossed on sireline.

Percentages – Patterns – Profiles.      Know them – Recognize Them – Buy A Winner

2016 Yearling Sales

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250

2015 Yearling Sales

The standardbred yearling sales entries at Morrisville and Goshen in New York, Harrisburg, Illinois, Ohio Jug and Ohio Buckeye, Forest City and the Canadian Open in Ontario, are now listed in the Globetrotter database. Lexington and the Indiana sales will be added shortly.

The sale profile function of PM Online will allow you to tabulate the yearlings by sale and check out their individual profiles versus the profile of success for the sire as well as provide cross statistics. Great tool to use to do your homework before you get to the sale and prepare a short list of the ones with the best chance to succeed.

You can also order a sale list of the best pedigrees sorted by performance rating from Pedigree Matching. All regional sales lists, with the exception of Harrisburg and Lexington, are $250. The Harrisburg and Lexington major sales are $1,000 for the full sale, or $250 for any component e.g. pacing colts, New York breds, etc . You can also buy an all yearling per day report for $400 for the major sales. You can order using the Paypal process on the Pedigree Matching website.

Lexington Sale Profile

The Lexington sale is set for the first week in October with a reduced number of yearlings from previous years, about 100 less than two years ago, and this year the sale includes a number of Indiana breds as the Kentucky breeding industry, as well as the industry as a whole, experiences a continued drop in yearling registrations. This year the total has dropped to below 8,000 foals in the North American crop of 2013 and next year will see another big drop with the damaging effects of the Ontario government debacle hitting home.






This year will see a big increase in Ontario breds at Lexington with the first crops of Big Jim, Vintage Master and Manofmanymissions well represented in addition to the hot sire of the year Sportswriter. These yearlings would mostly have sold in Ontario in previous years but many breeders have opted to try their luck in US sales at both Lexington and Harrisburg.






Also among the first crop trotting sires is a small group of yearlings by Broad Bahn including a nice pedigreed filly called Trendy Broad that will be worth looking over. On the pacing side Roll With Joe will debut his first yearlings and he will have a hard time filling the boots of his full brother Bettors Delight based on the mares he had to work with. Bettors Delight stood in Ontario in 2012 and he has a large group of Ontario eligibles on the Lexington list and another even bigger group in Harrisburg. A lot of these were foaled in the United States as breeders still had confidence in his ability to produce top shelf racehorses despite being evicted from New York to make way for his upstart brother.






Lexington Trotter Profile


Lexington Pacer Profile






For those of you not familiar with the Sale Profile format the numbers you see in the chart are cross statistics. The first pair under the 1st Dam Sire column shows the number of times that cross has been tried in terms of foals of racing age, then the percentage success rate in producing $100K winners. For instance The Yank by Always A Virgin shows 12 0 meaning 12 crosses of Always A Virgin to mares by Jennas Beach Boy and 0 % top winners. The second pair under the 2nd Dam Sire No Nukes is the cross of Jennas Beach Boy to No Nukes and it shows 100 crosses with a success rate of 22%. Generally a 15% success rate is considered acceptable.


To the right of the sire line columns, which by the way are colour coded to identify which sire lines are in the pedigree of the mare, you will see several columns headed by a letter A,H,K,M or O. These relate to the presence of special mares in the back pedigree and a 1 under any column identifies the dam of the yearling as having that mare doubled up in the dam's pedigree. For a full explanation of the significance of maternal influences you can download my book Queen Among Queens from the PM Online library.






For those of you needing help in short listing the best yearlings to look at in Lexington and Harrisburg I can prepare lists based on any criteria such as sex, gait, jurisdiction, or sire along with my ratings. They won't necessarily guarantee you a world champion but they will prevent you from making a costly mistake in buying the wrong yearling. Great race horses like Somebeachsomewhere, Bettors Delight, Lis Mara, Donato Hanover, and many more have been included in previous sale lists for Harrisburg and Lexington. Email me for further information at norman@pedigreematching.com

2014 Yearling Sales

The yearling sale season is just weeks away in North America but there is a major French auction in Deauville starting this week with 500 yearlings on offer. Among them are yearlings by stallion star Ready Cash as well as old favourites like Coktail Jet and Love You.

The Sale Profile for the Deauville sale is available via this link. The North American maternal traces don't apply here although some of the French sires do have such connections maternally. The cross percentage statistics are typically about half what you see in North America so you wont see many at 15% or higher.

Later this week I will post the Canadian Open and Ohio Jug profiles and in following weeks the sale profiles for the Morrisville, Lexington, Forest City and Harrisburg venues. There are over 2600 yearlings on offer in these NA sales, almost 1/3 of the total foals of 2013.

First crop sires are always a challenge but look for projected profiles on my blog in the next week for sires like Big Jim, Big Bad John, Broad Bahn, Manofmanymissions and others with their first foals on offer this year. We will also take a look at what happened in the first crops from last year for Lucky Chucky, Muscle Massive, Sportswriter and Rock N Roll Heaven.

Sometime in the next few days the sales lists will be available on PM Online for Guru level subscribers along with an editable sale report that you can use to identify your choices and ratings.

Note:

The colour codes for the sire lines in French Pedigrees are as follows:

Dark Blue - Stars Pride line
Red - Peter Scott line
Green - Volomite line
Brown - Axworthy line
Light Blue - Fuschia line
Black - Other French lines.

Lexington Trotting Yearlings

The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.

Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.

Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.

The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.

Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.

I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.

The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.

The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here

http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf

Lexington Pacing Yearling Profile

The 2013 Lexington yearling sale will see the first crops of three sires of special interest.

Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.

The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.

The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows

Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)

Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)

If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.

The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.

Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire.  Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.

Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.

Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.

http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei

The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2)  and Margaret Parrish (M2).

You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.

http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens

A Pattern to Watch For

Back in 1998 when we introduced the Pedigree Matching program at Harrisburg I sat down with a successful trainer and discussed pedigrees. He wanted to know what to look for on the pedigree page. He wanted something simple as a golden rule. We ran through some successful pedigrees and it was remarkable that many of the top individuals of the day did indeed show a particular pattern. Using that pattern the trainer has gone on to be one of the top trainers of young horses in North America.

The pedigree pattern he has since followed was indeed simple. Buy yearlings that were crossed maternally on Albatross for pacers and on Speedy Crown for trotters. Fourteen years later that pattern remains valid except it has moved to the maternal lines. Now we see the top performers coming from mares that are bred that way.

Jug winner Michaels Power is a case in point. He is by Camluck, a sire with no Albatross maternally but his dam is inbred 3x3 to Albatross maternally being by Artsplace, whose dam is by Albatross, and with a second dam by a son of Albatross. Captaintreachorous, the top two year old so far this year, is also from an Artsplace mare that. is inbred 3x4 to Albatross. Rocknroll Hanover has seven of his top ten that show a variation of this pattern with second or third dams through Albatross. Rockincam, winner of the Winbak on Jug Day, is another great example.

On the trotting side we have seen last year's Hambletonian winner Broad Bahn whose dam is inbred 3x3 to Speedy Crown. Cantab Hall has a particular liking for such mares and his best is Explosive Matter, also 3x3 to Speedy Crown in his dam.and most of his top ten show a similar pattern.

This pattern shows up best for sires like Camluck and Cantab Hall that have no Albatross or Speedy Crown maternally but also for sires that themselves have either of these individuals doubled up in their own dams such as Majestic Son and his top two year old Murmur Hanover, or Kadabra's top performer Daylon Magician, or Check Me Out by Donato Hanover a sire that also fits the pattern.

Unfortunately such crosses are not evident in the sales catalog due to the restricted pedigree chart but will jump right off the page when you can see a five generation pedigree chart.

Of course a pattern is just a pattern. You still need to have the pedigree content and the conformation to go with it. Dominant maternal crosses are , however, a good way to short list for potential top horses before you get to see them in the flesh.

Attachment: Broad Bahn Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Captaintreacherous Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Michaels Power Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Market Share Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Murmur Hanover Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Rockincam Pedigree.pdf

Understanding the Yearling Profiles

The profiles list the yearlings grouped alphabetically by sire. There are four sire profile columns which identify the sires of the first four dams in the pedigree. Each is colour coded to help identify the sire line - For pacers the red is Meadow Skipper, Blue is Adios line, Green is Volomite line and occasionally you will see light blue for the Big Towner line. For the trotters red is the Speedster line, Blue is Stars Pride, green is Volomite through Victory Song and brown is the rarely seen Axworthy line.

Below each sire name is a group of letters e.g. AHKMO which represents the maternal traces to key mares Adioo, Hatteras, Kathleen, Manette and Oniska. M2 is the inbred Margaret Parrish and A2 is Helen Hanover. These traces when combined in a pedigree often give a pattern which is common to the top performers known as the X-profile of the dam - this is shown in the last column. To the left of this combination is a tabulation by trace that shows which traces are doubled in the mares pedigree with each trace doubled signified by the number 1.

Also below the sire names in the first and second columns you will see two numbers e.g. 60 18. This is the cross statistic and in this case it shows the cross has produced 60 of racing age and 18% have earned over $100K. A good percentage is 15%. Any crosses lower than that should be carefully examined to make sure the yearling in question is similar, or not, to the few successful ones. The stats under the first column refer to the primary cross of sire and broodmare sire in the yearling while the second column shows the secondary cross of the mare herself. In the case of a new sire the primary cross numbers will show 0 0.

The yearling profiles should be used in conjunction with the Stallion profiles. As a Multiply member and a friend of this site you have access to these stallion profiles which show the top performers for each stallion in a format similar to the yearling profiles. Each stallion profile also indicates in summary the profile factors to look for in the yearling e.g. a stallion may favour non Meadow Skipper line mares, or mares that combine certain individuals, or Super Bowl line dams with a second dam through Speedy Crown etc. For those stallions that have yet to see their progeny race you can use a similar stallion as a model, as I have discussed in several recent entries regarding sires like Muscle Hill.

Once you have narrowed down the list to the ones that fit the sire profile and have good cross stats then you can put a number on the pedigree that is based on the speed and earnings in the first three dams. Rating the pedigrees like this gives you a priority list for inspection. You can then add any adjustments based on conformation to arrive at your short list of yearlings that fit your criteria based on cost, jurisdiction, gait, sex etc.

Doing your homework like this is not a guarantee that you will buy the next champion. It will, however, prevent you from making costly mistakes and greatly improve your chances of success, not to mention the reduced wear on your shoes.

If this all sounds like too much work then you can always call me for the yearling ratings for any sale. You can get them in total, by gait, by sex, or by racing jurisdiction. Once all of the sales are listed you can even get a North America Top 100 list for any gait/sex combination. For details and pricing email me at norman_g_hall@hotmail.com or send a private message through this site.

Check to see if the pedigree is right before you write the cheque.