Canada Select - Forest City Sale

The 2019 sale roster contains around 300 yearlings, down 40 or so from last year primarily the result of more Canadian horses being sent to Harrisburg and Lexington where the shortage in yearlings and high American dollar makes it more attractive if you have the right pedigrees.

There are, consequently slim opportunities in the entries to the Canadian sale especially for the established sires such as Bettors Delight and Kadabra. There are, however, a couple of new sires worth looking at in Il Sogno Dream, a son of Cantab Hall, and State Treasurer, the fastest son of Real Desire.

Il Sogno Dream made most of his $1.2 million plus earnings as an aged race horse winning the likes of the Allerage in Lexington. His second dam is a full sister to the great Moni Maker. As a son of Cantab Hall he has several other sons of that sire to compare to. One interesting common factor in them so far is their preference for non - Speedy Crown line dams with Noble Victory line dams in particular being the best. Consider that Father Patrick, Explosive Matter, Uncle Peter, and Airzoom Lindy have all produced their best from Noble Victory line dams, primarily through Garland Lobell.

Greenshoe by Father Patrick is from a Donato Hanover mare as are two others in his top six. Eight of his top 10 have the Noble Victory line in the 1st or 2nd dam.
Pinkman by Explosive Matter is from an Angus Hall dam and eight of his top 12 are from mares by sons of Garland Lobell and 14 of his top 20 have a Noble Victory line 1st or 2nd dam.
Super Schissel by Uncle Peter is from an Andover Hall mare
Churita by Airzoom Lindy is out of a mare by Yankee Paco and his next two also are from Noble Victory line dams.
Cassis top two are from mares by sons of Garland Lobell
Dontyouforgetit's second best is out of a Conway Hall dam

If the dam is not Noble Victory line chances are there is a second dam by a Noble Victory line sire which makes yearlings by Il Sogno Dream with such pedigrees the ones to focus on.

In terms of performance rating the top one is Wickenburgh, first foal from an Angus Hall mare that made over $380K who is the top rated trotter in the sale at 96 - 1.51.4

Tristar Dream is another colt that merits inspection. He is the second foal of a Conway Hall mare and rates a more modest 59 - 1.53.4 which makes him a bargain opportunity if he looks the part. Others of interest with respect to pedigree have questionable performance ratings such as Hey Ralphie 55-1.52.4, Iona Dream 51 - 1.54.2 and I Da Princess 46 - 1.53.1

State Treasurer has sixteen entries. A winner of over $2 million and a regular on the Ontario Jockey Club circuit he should be warmly welcomed in his first crop on Ontario soil. His biggest win was in the Canadian Pacing Derby and he also won the United States equivalent US Pacing derby at the Meadowlands taking his record of 1.47m.

As a son of Real Desire he was preceded in the stud ranks by Tell All, a son of Real desire that had a short and marginally successful stud career. Like his sire Tell All had a penchant for mares that had an Albatross line maternally and in fact his best is from an Albatross line dam. Such mares are rare these days and in fact Albatross is getting back in pedigrees past the third generation so that connection will be hard to find. State Treasurer is Western Ideal - Artsplace maternally so mares that have No Nukes and Abercrombie lines as well as, hopefully, Albatross would be the ones to watch for initially.

As expected Albatross lines are rare and the only two I found were from mares with 10 foals or more which I seldom recommend. There are several with No Nukes - Abercrombie maternally but there is an interesting possibility with respect to the special pedigree pattern I call TB which shows up when a sire is bred to a mare that is inbred to the sires own sire line, in this case Abercrombie. There are five such yearlings in the sale and three of them also show the No Nukes connection.

St Lads Yeah Yeah, a colt, is the top rated one at 98 - 1.49.4, then there are two fillies Alumni Seelster at 88 - 1.50.2 and Silhouete Seelster 75 - 1.51.1. Shiatzu Seelster 97 - 1.49.3 and Steelmeatreasure 69 - 1.51.0 are TB but with no line through No Nukes and St Lads Expresso 79 - 1.51.4 and Sorone Seelster 75 - 1.49.3 have No Nukes - Abercrombie lines maternally. All are worthy of inspection.

The full list of recommended yearlings is available on the PM website

Double - Double Yearlings

Add Tall Drink Hanover, winner of the Shes A Great Lady at Woodbine, to the growing list of top two year olds with double-double pedigrees. She was rated at 80 - 1.48.3 on our list for yearlings to consider at Harrisburg last year. Also on the list was Metro winner Stag Party at 95 - 1.50.0.

There are similar pedigree treasures to be found in this year's catalogues at Harrisburg, Lexington and Forest City. A special Double-Double report is available to the first ten buyers, a limited number because this is exclusive information on a short list of horses that have the potential for greatness, just like Always B Miki, McWicked, Hannelore Hanover, Manchego and many other champions.

First Crop Sires - Part 2

Trixton and E L Titan

These two sons of Muscle Hill are from a full sister and a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall and are by a Valley Victory line sire.  Cantab Hall is by a Valley Victory line sire and is also from a full sister in blood to the Hall boys. That makes these stallions easy to figure out since the profile for Cantab Hall is well established. There will be some differences due to the influence of the maternal lines of Muscle Hill whose dam is line bred to Stars Pride but the expected profile remains essentially the same as for Cantab Hall whose best 20 have the following characteristics.

1. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Speedy Crown, a son and/or an Arndon line. (17)

2. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Stars Pride or to Noble Victory line that also have Speedy Crown or a son or an Arndon line maternally. (2)

3. Mares with no Speedy Crown maternally (1)

15 of the top 20 by Cantab Hall have a maternal line through Stars Pride, a son or the Super Bowl line. Since Muscle Hill is linebred maternally to Stars Pride you can expect the Stars Pride influence on the success of Trixton and E L Titan to be even more pronounced with more Stars Pride line mares than is the case for Cantab Hall where the balance in the top 20 is 12 to 8 in favour of Valley Victory or Pine Chip line mares. There may even be more mares that succeed with no Speedy Crown maternally although these are understandably rare.

Based on the above there are quite a few possibilities in the Lexington, Harrisburg and Forest City sales and my top choices are as follows.

Trixton

Cheap Tricks - Harrisburg #99 - 093 - 1.51.4

Miss Trixton - Lexington  #38 - 110 - 1.51.0

E L Titan

Checkmate Titan - Harrisburg #673 - 076 - 1.52.4
Djokover - Lexington #141 - 091 - 1.50.0
Lefkada - Forest City #99 - 084 - 1.52.2

First Crop Sires

First Crop Sires in 2017

This year's yearling sales feature the first yearlings by some stellar racehorses. Captaintreacherous and Trixton are the ones most people are looking forward to buying, if they can afford them that is. In addition to Captaintreacherous the pacing yearlings will also have first offerings from other sons of Somebeachsomewhere such as Sunshine Beach, and from great performers like Sweet Lou. The trotting sires joining Trixton as first timers include other sons of Muscle Hill like E L Titan,  plus Father Patrick, Royalty For Life, and Uncle Peter.

Established sires have all shown, through their sire profiles, the type of mare with which they succeed. Even the second crop sires such as A Rocknroll Dance and Archangel have developed a pattern of success that can now be used to separate the few with a reasonable chance of success from the many that do not. But how do you know what kind of mares the first crop sires will succeed with?  The answer most likely is to be found in the profiles of similar sires, especially those with similar maternal lines.

The maternal lines of Captaintreacherous are Artsplace and Nihilator and he has a very strong maternal family that includes successful and would be sires such as Art Major, Real Artist, Perfect Art, Panspacificflight, World Of Rocknroll, Beachtrea and Wake Up Peter, in addition to several world champion performers on the track.

On the surface this appears to be a cant-miss sire but there are some question marks. In addition to World of Rocknroll, from a full sister to the dam of Captaintreacherous, there is Kenneth J who has the same maternal combination of Artsplace and Nihilator. Both have horses of racing age and neither has so far shown any great or consistent siring ability. Kenneth J's best from 247 of racing age is Murder She Wrote with $192K made and he has now left the North America stallion ranks. Even in failure, however, we can pick up some useful information. Of his 8 winners of over $100K five are from mares by sons of Abercrombie or Artsplace, and two others have Abercrombie or a son maternally. The lone exception is from a Jennas Beach Boy mare that is both line bred and inbred to the Meadow Skipper line. This inbreeding to the Meadow Skipper line occurs in all eight of Kenneth J's best and features a maternal line mare by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line as one or both of the inbred lines.

World Of Rocknroll also has eight winners of over $100K and although the Abercrombie connection is not as prominent with five such mares, the Meadow Skipper connection through mares line bred or inbred is also present in all eight.

Looking at the broader context of sires with Artsplace dams we find a strikingly similar situation especially with regard to the presence of Albatross in the dams of the best performers. There are 23 such sires with foals of racing age and the best in terms of top performers is Western Terror with a success rate of 18.2%. The overall success rate for sires with Artsplace dams, however, is just 10.2% and considerably shy of the 15% level for "just average" sires. Artsplace was a 24.4% sire and is 19.6% as a broodmare sire but those stats do not necessarily carry on to the next generation. Other current sires with Artsplace dams and several crops racing include Canyon Wind (13.4%),  Well Said (12.1%), Rock N Roll Heaven (11.3%), Metropolitan (11.7%), If I Can Dream (9.4%), Artistic Fella (9.1%), Big Bad John (5.4%), P Forty Seven (7.2%), Vintage Master (2.6%), Kenneth J (5.5%), World Of Rocknroll (6.7%).

None of these sires, however, are by the great Somebeachsomewhere and that may make a difference but then again maybe it will not. His first two sons with progeny racing are So Surreal and Net Ten Eom. So Surreal was a fast but unsound son of the great Artsplace mare Must See, dam of Well Said. He has one decent one from his first crop of 52 two year olds that has made just over $85K in Azreal As It Gets and true to form this one is from a mare linebred to Meadow Skipper. Net Ten Eom is from an equally well respected Artsplace mare in Glowing Report, but like So Surreal was unsound as a racehorse and is struggling in his first crop of 72 with the best earning just $14,560 so far. His profile also is showing a preference for mares line bred or inbred to Meadow Skipper.

There is an old theory first written about in the original Care And Training of the Trotter And Pacer published by the USTA. In the chapter on breeding the author, James C Harrison, wrote "All of the foundation sires of the breed were relatively short bred maternally in the sense that none of the female families that produced them ever established lasting maternal families of their own"  Does this mean that stallions from top quality mares such as Must See and Glowing Report, are doomed to failure?  The family of Somebeachsomewhere is nowhere to be found in the top 300 maternal families. His maternal line goes back to Rosa (1868) and it took 100 years before Lil Miss Thompson was born and subsequently produced the first $100K winner , Jambooger by Albatross, in 1974. Researching the descendents of Lil Miss Thompson shows just 38 winners of over $100K before Somebeachsomewhere came along. The best one was Giveittoemstraight ($613K) from a 3/4 sister to the second dam of Somebeachsomewhere.

If I was buying a yearling by Captaintreacherous it looks like I should focus on the mares line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line that have Albatross and Abercrombie maternally through sons or daughters. That still leaves you with a lot to choose from. In Harrisburg my top pick would be Flameproof Hanover 124 - 1.48.2, and in Lexington it would be the filly Treacherous Trails 129 - 1.48.1.

2017 Yearling Ratings

Ratings are now available for all North American yearling sales. The ratings are based on :

1. The yearling fits the established or predicted profile of the sire
2. The speed and earnings values in the pedigree are sufficient to produce at least a regional stakes winner.

The ratings are designed to eliminate wasting your time looking at and bidding on yearlings with little or no chance of success based on pedigree and the family history.

Reports for Harrisburg and Lexington are available for $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, NY eligibles etc.

Reports for Ohio, New York, Canada and Indiana sales cost $250 each.

You can also order a segmented report on all NY yearlings in all sales or Ontario, NJ, or PA yearlings for $300

Conformation is an important part of yearling selection. Using an adjustment of + or - 50 points on the ratings can bring lower rated individuals into consideration and disqualify higher rated yearlings.

To order reports use the Paypal option on the pedigreematching.com website.

The top twelve two year olds in earnings this year from last year's sales were all listed in the PM ratings for 2016.

2016 Yearling Sales

The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.

Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :

Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435

Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)

All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13 
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.

Conclusion - You only needed to look at  the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date. 

You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.

New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250

2015 Yearling Sales

The standardbred yearling sales entries at Morrisville and Goshen in New York, Harrisburg, Illinois, Ohio Jug and Ohio Buckeye, Forest City and the Canadian Open in Ontario, are now listed in the Globetrotter database. Lexington and the Indiana sales will be added shortly.

The sale profile function of PM Online will allow you to tabulate the yearlings by sale and check out their individual profiles versus the profile of success for the sire as well as provide cross statistics. Great tool to use to do your homework before you get to the sale and prepare a short list of the ones with the best chance to succeed.

You can also order a sale list of the best pedigrees sorted by performance rating from Pedigree Matching. All regional sales lists, with the exception of Harrisburg and Lexington, are $250. The Harrisburg and Lexington major sales are $1,000 for the full sale, or $250 for any component e.g. pacing colts, New York breds, etc . You can also buy an all yearling per day report for $400 for the major sales. You can order using the Paypal process on the Pedigree Matching website.

2014 Yearling Sales

The yearling sale season is just weeks away in North America but there is a major French auction in Deauville starting this week with 500 yearlings on offer. Among them are yearlings by stallion star Ready Cash as well as old favourites like Coktail Jet and Love You.

The Sale Profile for the Deauville sale is available via this link. The North American maternal traces don't apply here although some of the French sires do have such connections maternally. The cross percentage statistics are typically about half what you see in North America so you wont see many at 15% or higher.

Later this week I will post the Canadian Open and Ohio Jug profiles and in following weeks the sale profiles for the Morrisville, Lexington, Forest City and Harrisburg venues. There are over 2600 yearlings on offer in these NA sales, almost 1/3 of the total foals of 2013.

First crop sires are always a challenge but look for projected profiles on my blog in the next week for sires like Big Jim, Big Bad John, Broad Bahn, Manofmanymissions and others with their first foals on offer this year. We will also take a look at what happened in the first crops from last year for Lucky Chucky, Muscle Massive, Sportswriter and Rock N Roll Heaven.

Sometime in the next few days the sales lists will be available on PM Online for Guru level subscribers along with an editable sale report that you can use to identify your choices and ratings.

Note:

The colour codes for the sire lines in French Pedigrees are as follows:

Dark Blue - Stars Pride line
Red - Peter Scott line
Green - Volomite line
Brown - Axworthy line
Light Blue - Fuschia line
Black - Other French lines.