The 2019 Stallion Finder is now available on the PM website .
The document contains all of the significant stallions currently standing in North America with tables listed by stallion name, State/Province and sire lines along with suggested sire lines to look for in matching your mares.
Among the interesting facts shown by the listing :
280 Pacing Sires
276 Trotting Sires
Most Pacing stallion sons at stud - Western Hanover 31, Rocknroll Hanover 18
Most Trotting stallion sons at stud - Muscles Yankee 25, Muscle Hill 24
Oldest Pacing stallion - Dream Away 1994
Oldest Trotting stallion - Giant Hit 1992
Most Pacing Stallions by State/Province - Ohio 41, Ontario 34, Indiana 34
Most Trotting Stallions by State/Province - Indiana 51, Ohio 45, Ontario 32
There are stallions standing in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Kansas for the first time in the Stallion Finder.
Prince Edward Island is down to only one stallion and the Sires Stakes program for trotters will soon be extinct unless we find a couple of additional stallions for this breeding season. If you know of any soon to be retired stallions that may be available for a last ditch lease on life let me know. Stars Pride line or Valley Victory line preferred.
Showing posts with label profiles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label profiles. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
2018 Yearling Sales
Profiles and ratings are now available on the Pedigree Matching site for the New York (Goshen, Morrisville), Alberta and Ohio Jug sales. The recommendations for the Goshen and Morrisville sales are combined in the Ratings report. Sire profiles for all sires represented will be available shortly with some already posted.
You can access sale and sire profiles as well as Rating reports on the PM site.
Harrisburg list should be available shortly in addition to the Canadian Open sale in London, Ontario. Others to follow when available from Lexington, Indiana, and the Ohio Buckeye.
Pricing for Ratings reports remains the same as last year. Lexington and Harrisburg are $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, New York breds etc. Other sales are $250. Sale profiles are $50 per sale.
You can access sale and sire profiles as well as Rating reports on the PM site.
Harrisburg list should be available shortly in addition to the Canadian Open sale in London, Ontario. Others to follow when available from Lexington, Indiana, and the Ohio Buckeye.
Pricing for Ratings reports remains the same as last year. Lexington and Harrisburg are $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, New York breds etc. Other sales are $250. Sale profiles are $50 per sale.
Saturday, August 27, 2016
2016 Yearling Sales
The 2016 Pedigree Matching yearling rating lists will reduce your yearling search time and dramatically increase your chances of selecting a successful yearling as well as save you from making expensive mistakes.
Here are some statistics for last year's sale ratings :
Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435
Total Yearlings sold - 3275
Non rated Yearlings sold - 2435
Yearlings Rated by PM - 840 (25.6%)
All Yearlings with $50,000+ earned to date - 108
Non rated Yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 13
Rated yearlings with $50,000+ to date - 95 (88%) including the top 8 to date and 33 (90%) of the 37 yearlings making over $100,000 to date.
Conclusion - You only needed to look at the yearlings rated by PM to find 88% of the top earners with over $50,000 to date.
You can order a rating list of the recommended yearlings in any sale by using the Paypal service on the Pedigree Matching website. The costs are as follows in $Cdn, US$ equivalent is about 75% depending on value at time of payment processing through Paypal. Rating lists are now available for Ontario and New York sales - others to be available by the end of August.
New York Sales Combined - $250
Ontario Sales Combined - $250
Ohio Buckeye - $250
Ohio Jug - $250
Hoosier Classic - $250
Harrisburg or Lexington - $250 per segment e.g. colts, fillies, trotters, by state/Province etc. Full sale is $750
Custom reports by gait, sex, or State/Province combining all sales - $250
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Harrisburg 2014 Yearling Profiles
Are you still looking for a yearling that could be the next World Champion? Chances are that Harrisburg is the place to look. The largest sale in terms of entries can be a daunting task to find the right horse but if you prepare yourself by creating a short list of what you want, whether it is by sex, gait, jurisdiction or sire it will save you a lot of time when it comes to inspecting your choices in the flesh.
Most successful trainers like to see as many of the horses they can prior to the sale by visiting the farms where they can see the yearlings run in the paddock rather than depend upon the videos. For most prospective owners this is next to impossible unless they are self employed and can take a month off. Since it ultimately is the owners responsibility to pay the bills, not just for buying but for training and staking your purchases over the next nine months till they hopefully qualify to race, a good way to ensure that your investment is a wise one is to do your own research into the pedigrees.
Stallion profiles are an invaluable aid to short listing the sale entries. Every stallion has a profile based on the mares he has been successful with. You can even use the profile of a similar stallion when trying to predict the fate of first crop stallions whose progeny have yet to race. This year there are just a handful of first crop sires including Manofmanymissions and Roll With Joe, both with sizeable consignments. Roll With Joe is a full brother to Bettors Delight and you know what the profile of Bettors Delight is don't you. You don't ? Well join the majority of buyers at any sale who blindly follow their trainers into making bad decisions.
By tabulating the top performers by a particular sire to show the sire lines in their pedigrees you will see a pattern emerge than can be summarized in one or two sentences that key on the presence or absence of certain sire lines e.g. Meadow Skipper, Adios, Volomite, Big Towner etc. For Bettors Delight the profile has two factors and reads:
1. Non Meadow Skipper line dams with a second or third dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire (11)
2. Most Happy Fella line dams with a second or third dam by an Adios line sire (5)
A quick scan of the top 16 shows that 15 of them have an Albatross line and 15 have an Adios line through Abercrombie (9), Bret Hanover (5) and Adios Vic (1)
If you go through the 36 Roll With Joe yearlings and eliminate on the basis of not having the requisite Meadow Skipper and Adios lines you cut the list to 17. It is shocking, to me at least, to note that the number of yearlings with Meadow Skipper line dams is 25 or 70%, while the percentage of the top 16 performers by Bettors Delight with Meadow Skipper line dams is the very opposite at 30% - now somebody is not doing their homework when it comes to selecting a stallion. And if you think the consignors of the 45 yearlings by Bettors Delight have done any better, with a profile that has not changed since his first crop hit the tracks in 2003, then think again because the number is slightly worse at 71% Meadow Skipper line dams.
Here are the profiles for the Trotting and pacing yearlings in Harrisburg. Now do your homework and put the percentages in your favor. The pedigrees are all in the PM Online database and if you sign up at the Guru level prior to the Harrisburg sale you can get your first year subscription at half price - that's a saving of $100 and you get my sale reports for Harrisburg for half price too and access to the PM Online library where the all important Stallion Profiles are kept. E-mail me to obtain these special offers with the subject "Harrisburg Offers".
Most successful trainers like to see as many of the horses they can prior to the sale by visiting the farms where they can see the yearlings run in the paddock rather than depend upon the videos. For most prospective owners this is next to impossible unless they are self employed and can take a month off. Since it ultimately is the owners responsibility to pay the bills, not just for buying but for training and staking your purchases over the next nine months till they hopefully qualify to race, a good way to ensure that your investment is a wise one is to do your own research into the pedigrees.
Stallion profiles are an invaluable aid to short listing the sale entries. Every stallion has a profile based on the mares he has been successful with. You can even use the profile of a similar stallion when trying to predict the fate of first crop stallions whose progeny have yet to race. This year there are just a handful of first crop sires including Manofmanymissions and Roll With Joe, both with sizeable consignments. Roll With Joe is a full brother to Bettors Delight and you know what the profile of Bettors Delight is don't you. You don't ? Well join the majority of buyers at any sale who blindly follow their trainers into making bad decisions.
By tabulating the top performers by a particular sire to show the sire lines in their pedigrees you will see a pattern emerge than can be summarized in one or two sentences that key on the presence or absence of certain sire lines e.g. Meadow Skipper, Adios, Volomite, Big Towner etc. For Bettors Delight the profile has two factors and reads:
1. Non Meadow Skipper line dams with a second or third dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire (11)
2. Most Happy Fella line dams with a second or third dam by an Adios line sire (5)
A quick scan of the top 16 shows that 15 of them have an Albatross line and 15 have an Adios line through Abercrombie (9), Bret Hanover (5) and Adios Vic (1)
If you go through the 36 Roll With Joe yearlings and eliminate on the basis of not having the requisite Meadow Skipper and Adios lines you cut the list to 17. It is shocking, to me at least, to note that the number of yearlings with Meadow Skipper line dams is 25 or 70%, while the percentage of the top 16 performers by Bettors Delight with Meadow Skipper line dams is the very opposite at 30% - now somebody is not doing their homework when it comes to selecting a stallion. And if you think the consignors of the 45 yearlings by Bettors Delight have done any better, with a profile that has not changed since his first crop hit the tracks in 2003, then think again because the number is slightly worse at 71% Meadow Skipper line dams.
Here are the profiles for the Trotting and pacing yearlings in Harrisburg. Now do your homework and put the percentages in your favor. The pedigrees are all in the PM Online database and if you sign up at the Guru level prior to the Harrisburg sale you can get your first year subscription at half price - that's a saving of $100 and you get my sale reports for Harrisburg for half price too and access to the PM Online library where the all important Stallion Profiles are kept. E-mail me to obtain these special offers with the subject "Harrisburg Offers".
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Ohio Jug Sale
Little Brown Jug Week starts on Monday 15th and traditionally there has been a small yearling sale to kick off the festivities. This year the sale has increased dramatically in numbers as the benefits of OHIO slots boosts the interest in Ohio breds - the reverse of what has occurred in Ontario and ironically the Ohio experience is based on the now defunct Ontario Slots at Racetracks program.
This sale has never been of much significance serving primarily as an opportunity to get horsemen involved in Jug Week in advance of the big race on the Thursday. There still is not a lot of significance in this sale either and if you take out the 60 head by first crop sire Big Bad John, and the 25 by Ohio's current hot pacing sire Feelin Friskie there is really not a lot of value in the pacing consignment.
The trotters are even more forgettable unless again you are interested in the current top trotting stallion Chip Chip Hooray with 25 yearlings and a new stallion Triumphant Caviar with 24. There is also a handful by Pilgrims Taj who left Ontario after one crop and now has 7 on hand here. I believe he is now in Finland and based on his Ontario racing crop that is probably a blessing, and not necessarily for the Finns.
Big Bad John is by Western Hanover and joins 35 others currently at stud by that sire. His maternal side of Artsplace - Big Towner is not shared by any of them and indeed the only same sire maternally is Mr Saratoga by Million Dollar Cam with a few racing in Ontario. There are other sires that we can use however to construct a profile including Dragon Again (Abercrombie - Towners Big Guy), Memphis Flash (Big Towner - Abercrombie) and Allamerican Merlin (Big Towner - Abercrombie). Based on the common elements in the dams of their top performers to date here is what I see.
1. Non Meadow Skipper line broodmares that are inbred to the Meadow Skipper line through sons, the Albatross line and the No Nukes line. (43%)
2. Linebred Meadow Skipper mares with an Albatross line 2nd or 3rd dam (35%)
3. Cam Fella line dams with an Adios/Abercrombie line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a dam through Adios (18%)
4. Mares with maternal combinations of Abercrombie and Big Towner (4%)
Big Towner maternally, although not essential, would be considered an asset.
The percentages are the collective results of the top 16 offspring of the comparable sires so give this some priority in your selections. Having said that I must admit there is one colt that I really like that falls under the #4 profile factor. He is called Big Cool John and from a mare by Real Artist, a sire by Artsplace from a Big Towner mare.
As noted the trotters are an indifferent bunch mostly from dams with low percentage crosses. There are always a few gems to sift for like a full sister to a winner of $470K that is however an 11th foal and an interesting Pilgrims Taj called Taj For All.
This sale has never been of much significance serving primarily as an opportunity to get horsemen involved in Jug Week in advance of the big race on the Thursday. There still is not a lot of significance in this sale either and if you take out the 60 head by first crop sire Big Bad John, and the 25 by Ohio's current hot pacing sire Feelin Friskie there is really not a lot of value in the pacing consignment.
The trotters are even more forgettable unless again you are interested in the current top trotting stallion Chip Chip Hooray with 25 yearlings and a new stallion Triumphant Caviar with 24. There is also a handful by Pilgrims Taj who left Ontario after one crop and now has 7 on hand here. I believe he is now in Finland and based on his Ontario racing crop that is probably a blessing, and not necessarily for the Finns.
Big Bad John is by Western Hanover and joins 35 others currently at stud by that sire. His maternal side of Artsplace - Big Towner is not shared by any of them and indeed the only same sire maternally is Mr Saratoga by Million Dollar Cam with a few racing in Ontario. There are other sires that we can use however to construct a profile including Dragon Again (Abercrombie - Towners Big Guy), Memphis Flash (Big Towner - Abercrombie) and Allamerican Merlin (Big Towner - Abercrombie). Based on the common elements in the dams of their top performers to date here is what I see.
1. Non Meadow Skipper line broodmares that are inbred to the Meadow Skipper line through sons, the Albatross line and the No Nukes line. (43%)
2. Linebred Meadow Skipper mares with an Albatross line 2nd or 3rd dam (35%)
3. Cam Fella line dams with an Adios/Abercrombie line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a dam through Adios (18%)
4. Mares with maternal combinations of Abercrombie and Big Towner (4%)
Big Towner maternally, although not essential, would be considered an asset.
The percentages are the collective results of the top 16 offspring of the comparable sires so give this some priority in your selections. Having said that I must admit there is one colt that I really like that falls under the #4 profile factor. He is called Big Cool John and from a mare by Real Artist, a sire by Artsplace from a Big Towner mare.
As noted the trotters are an indifferent bunch mostly from dams with low percentage crosses. There are always a few gems to sift for like a full sister to a winner of $470K that is however an 11th foal and an interesting Pilgrims Taj called Taj For All.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
2014 Yearling Sales
The yearling sale season is just weeks away in North America but there is a major French auction in Deauville starting this week with 500 yearlings on offer. Among them are yearlings by stallion star Ready Cash as well as old favourites like Coktail Jet and Love You.
The Sale Profile for the Deauville sale is available via this link. The North American maternal traces don't apply here although some of the French sires do have such connections maternally. The cross percentage statistics are typically about half what you see in North America so you wont see many at 15% or higher.
Later this week I will post the Canadian Open and Ohio Jug profiles and in following weeks the sale profiles for the Morrisville, Lexington, Forest City and Harrisburg venues. There are over 2600 yearlings on offer in these NA sales, almost 1/3 of the total foals of 2013.
First crop sires are always a challenge but look for projected profiles on my blog in the next week for sires like Big Jim, Big Bad John, Broad Bahn, Manofmanymissions and others with their first foals on offer this year. We will also take a look at what happened in the first crops from last year for Lucky Chucky, Muscle Massive, Sportswriter and Rock N Roll Heaven.
Sometime in the next few days the sales lists will be available on PM Online for Guru level subscribers along with an editable sale report that you can use to identify your choices and ratings.
Note:
The colour codes for the sire lines in French Pedigrees are as follows:
Dark Blue - Stars Pride line
Red - Peter Scott line
Green - Volomite line
Brown - Axworthy line
Light Blue - Fuschia line
Black - Other French lines.
The Sale Profile for the Deauville sale is available via this link. The North American maternal traces don't apply here although some of the French sires do have such connections maternally. The cross percentage statistics are typically about half what you see in North America so you wont see many at 15% or higher.
Later this week I will post the Canadian Open and Ohio Jug profiles and in following weeks the sale profiles for the Morrisville, Lexington, Forest City and Harrisburg venues. There are over 2600 yearlings on offer in these NA sales, almost 1/3 of the total foals of 2013.
First crop sires are always a challenge but look for projected profiles on my blog in the next week for sires like Big Jim, Big Bad John, Broad Bahn, Manofmanymissions and others with their first foals on offer this year. We will also take a look at what happened in the first crops from last year for Lucky Chucky, Muscle Massive, Sportswriter and Rock N Roll Heaven.
Sometime in the next few days the sales lists will be available on PM Online for Guru level subscribers along with an editable sale report that you can use to identify your choices and ratings.
Note:
The colour codes for the sire lines in French Pedigrees are as follows:
Dark Blue - Stars Pride line
Red - Peter Scott line
Green - Volomite line
Brown - Axworthy line
Light Blue - Fuschia line
Black - Other French lines.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Forest City Sale
The last major sale of the year will be the Forest City sale in Ontario. The organizers decided to delay this sale to November to see if the situation would be more clear in Ontario by then. Im not sure that is the case and although the Canadian Open sale was up from its disaster last year, the future for breeders in Ontario is still far from clear.
A look at the pedigrees for this years sale shows that old stalwart Camluck still has a lock on the best pedigrees of the sale which does not say a lot for the breeders in Ontario and their sire selection. It always amazes me that breeders can make choices either in total ignorance of the facts or in total denial. This sale is full of yearlings with no chance and as a result there are fewer than 40 of the 300 plus yearlings that have a legitimate chance of success.
Attached are the profiles for the yearlings - you can judge for yourself.
http://www.mediafire.com/download/345xf9fvx9zhc3k/Forest_City_Trotting_Yearling_Profiles.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/mjptrbi5mybbn2i/Forest_City_Pacing_Yearling_Profiles.pdf
A look at the pedigrees for this years sale shows that old stalwart Camluck still has a lock on the best pedigrees of the sale which does not say a lot for the breeders in Ontario and their sire selection. It always amazes me that breeders can make choices either in total ignorance of the facts or in total denial. This sale is full of yearlings with no chance and as a result there are fewer than 40 of the 300 plus yearlings that have a legitimate chance of success.
Attached are the profiles for the yearlings - you can judge for yourself.
http://www.mediafire.com/download/345xf9fvx9zhc3k/Forest_City_Trotting_Yearling_Profiles.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/mjptrbi5mybbn2i/Forest_City_Pacing_Yearling_Profiles.pdf
Monday, September 23, 2013
Lexington Trotting Yearlings
The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Lexington Pacing Yearling Profile
The 2013 Lexington yearling sale will see the first crops of three sires of special interest.
Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.
The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.
The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows
Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)
Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)
If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.
The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.
Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire. Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.
Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.
Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.
http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei
The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2) and Margaret Parrish (M2).
You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.
http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens
Rock N Roll Heaven will no doubt be the big attention getter based on his exceptional racing career and large book of mostly New York based mares. My first impression is that, as usual, the breeders have largely missed the boat, and I am somewhat disappointed at the quality of the mares to which he was bred. As a result there are just a handful of colts in Lexington that make my list.
The maternal lines of Rock N Roll Heaven are through Artsplace and Cam Fella. There are no other sires with the same combination with foals already racing although we do have Rockin Image with his first crop in Indiana who is Real Artist (Artsplace) and Cam Fella. The latter also has a large book and at first glance a much better matched first crop from some very decent mares that could easily have sold at Laxington and Harrisburg.
The closest sire with foals racing is Western Terror, and of course his full brother If I Can Dream. They, like Rock N Roll Heaven, are Western Hanover line sires and from a dam that combines Artsplace and a Most Happy Fella line second dam being by On The Road Again. We can use the established profile for Western Terror to get us in the ballpark and then refine it to reflect the Cam Fella presence in Rock N Roll Heaven's dam to come up with a predicted profile. The profile for the top 16 by Western Terror is as follows
Non Meadow Skipper line dams with Volomite line 2nd or 3rd dams or broodmare sire with a Volomite line dam (10)
Double Meadow Skipper line with Cam Fella line 1st or 2nd dam or broodmare sire with Cam Fella dam (5)
If I Can Dream is already showing the same pattern with his best, Forty Five Red, from an Artsplace mare with a third dam by Matts Scooter. His next best is from a mare by Art Major with a second dam by Camluck.
The presence of a Volomite line, usually through Direct Scooter, is a dominant feature of this profile and since Rocknroll Hanover also has Direct Scooter maternally it is highly likely to show up in the best by Rock N Roll Heaven. That factor coupled with Cam Fella and/or Abercrombie maternally will be a big part of his pattern of success. One broodmare sire I would be watching for is Bettors Delight, a Cam Fella line with an Abercrombie line dam. Another would be Art Major mares with Cam Fella or Matts Scooter maternally.
Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire. Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop.
Art Colony was an exceptionally fast two year old who did not make it back at three. This is a big strike against his chances as a sire but he does have something special to offer and that is a maternal line similar to Somebeachsomewhere being Beach Towel - Cam Fella. SBSW has done well with Abercrombie line dams inbred to Meadow Skipper. That will not be an option for Art Colony but Most Happy Fella line dams that are inbred to Meadow Skipper or Abercrombie (Adios line) will certainly be a big part of his pattern of success since that is also part of the profile for SBSW.
Here is the link to the profile for the Lexington pacing yearlings.
http://www.mediafire.com/?o699cf4l6offoei
The table shows the sire lines in the first four dams along with the success rates of crosses to date for the yearlings cross and his dams cross. Those numbers appear under the first and second dam sire. The first number is the number of times the cross has been tried, the second number is the percentage success rate in producing $100K plus winners. Also in the table, for those of you who follow maternal influences, there are listed the occurences of the key maternal mares, Adioo (A), Hatteras (H), Kathleen (K), Manette (M) and Oniska (O), together with the X-factor trigger mares Helen Hanover (A2) and Margaret Parrish (M2).
You can read more about these maternal factors in my book Queen Among Queens available from this link.
http://www.mediafire.com/folder/dnxx7kdftndct/Queen_Among_Queens
Monday, July 29, 2013
Well Said - Well Dead ?
In an earlier blog on Well Said yearlings I predicted that Well Said would have a difficult time as a sire based on the lack of success for similar sires. I was prepared to cut him some slack based on his exceptional racing career but it seems that early results of his first crop may be proving me right regardless.
To date he has a eleven winners from a first crop of 102 and the best has made just over $60,000. The top one was very predictable. Talkative is from an Artiscape mare with a second dam by Direct Scooter which is a perfect fit for Well Said's maternal lines of Artsplace and Matts Scooter.
The predicted profile for Well Said was for non Meadow Skipper line mares or mares that are line bred to Meadow Skipper with maternal connections to either Abercrombie or Direct Scooter. So far three of the top four are from Abercrombie line dams and the other is a line bred Meadow Skipper dam with an Abercrombie third dam. Just as predicted.
The other nick that was important was to find an Albatross line maternally and the top two have third dams through Albatross.
It is early yet and I hope to see his results improve but unfortunately, as is often the case, the breeders guessed wrong for the most part and the ones that fit the profile better step up soon or this well bred sire will truly be well dead.
To date he has a eleven winners from a first crop of 102 and the best has made just over $60,000. The top one was very predictable. Talkative is from an Artiscape mare with a second dam by Direct Scooter which is a perfect fit for Well Said's maternal lines of Artsplace and Matts Scooter.
The predicted profile for Well Said was for non Meadow Skipper line mares or mares that are line bred to Meadow Skipper with maternal connections to either Abercrombie or Direct Scooter. So far three of the top four are from Abercrombie line dams and the other is a line bred Meadow Skipper dam with an Abercrombie third dam. Just as predicted.
The other nick that was important was to find an Albatross line maternally and the top two have third dams through Albatross.
It is early yet and I hope to see his results improve but unfortunately, as is often the case, the breeders guessed wrong for the most part and the ones that fit the profile better step up soon or this well bred sire will truly be well dead.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Deweycheatumnhowe - Just like his daddy
Muscles Yankee struggled to establish himself suffering from early criticism that he would not make a sire since he did not look like a trotter. His first crop did not sell that well and half way through the first season they seemed to be living up to the low expectations of the buyers. Prices at Lexington for his second crop suffered accordingly. Then in the month between Lexington and Harrisburg things began to change and with several two year olds making noise in the fall stakes the results at the Harrisburg sale were much improved.
It looks like "deja-vu" all over again as Deweycheatumnhowe looks to be following the same script. Ma Chere Hall set a two year old filly track record at Vernon Downs of 1.54.2 and joins two previous winners by Dewey with over $100K made to date. All three are from Conway Hall mares.That should not be a surprise to anyone that read my blog entry on January 28th, 2011. Here is what I said then in predicting what yearlings to look for .
"There were two things that you could expect for sure in Deweycheatumnhowes first crop.
Firstly that there would be several named similarily to their sire and so it is no surprise that track announcers will have to contend with Deweyconumnwow, Deweyflashthemnow, Deweykidumnhowe, Deweytrotandhowe etc.
The second guarantee is that stallion master Alan Leavitt would get the pedigrees right. One of the most important things that breeding farms have to be aware of is stallion succession and making sure that your next sire takes advantage of the daughters of your previous sire The daughters of Garland Lobell and his sons Andover, Angus and Conway Hall will do just that very nicely - thank you very much.
It was also no surprise that Walnut Hall mares are responsible for almost one third of his first crop of 82 yearlings. Not that there is a problem with that since there are few breeders who can energize a stallion's career like Mr Leavitt.
It is too bad Dewey did not come along ten years earlier when Garland Lobell mares were at their peak production but there are still some on the Walnut Hall premises with the colt Creole Hall being from Canland Hall. Alan had a good back up plan though since he also has a number of mares by Striking Sahbra from Garland Lobell mares. Since Dewey's maternal lines are Speedy Somolli and Noble Victory, and Striking Sahbra's dam is by Speedy Somolli with Garland Lobell being a grandson of Noble Victory you can see the strong maternal connection here
Mares by sons of Garland Lobell, notably the Hall brothers, are also featured in the first crop. Since they collectively did their best work with Speedy Crown line mares and down the line to Valley Victory they are a natural fit to the Noble Victory - Speedy Somolli combination in Deweycheatumnhowe, the same maternal combination as in the dam of Muscles Yankee who was Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. There are several yearlings with Valley Victory - Speedy Crown on the maternal line and if you read the note from Nicolas Matzka on the One Trick Ponies posting you can see that pattern is becoming an attractive feature, at least in Europe.
There are several other ways to match to Dewey and one is to use Super Bowl line dams with Speedy Crown or Noble Victory doubled maternally. This makes sense since Muscles Yankee did very well with the likes of Supergill and American Winner mares and since Deweys maternal lines are much the same you can reasonably expect his dad to be a pretty good role model. There are several yearlings in this category."
Below is a link to the sire profiile for Deweycheatumnhowe based on his top 16 performers. Seven of the top 10 were bred by Alan Leavitt. The top six and twelve of the top 16 are all from mares by Garland Lobell or one of his sons, Conway, Andover or Angus Hall or by Balanced Image. Ten of these have a Speedy Crown line maternally in the 2nd or 3rd dam. The other two have no Speedy Crown but have an additional Noble Victory line maternally. There is one from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown, an option that I also suggested. This possibility also extends to Arnie Almahurst line dams since there are two dams by sons of Pine Chip that are inbred to Speedy Crown line.
This is an excellent example of how you can predict what mares will do best with a new stallion. There is no reason for breeders to do otherwise. It is not rocket science. If you are still not sure give Alan Leavitt a call - he obviously gets it, just like Bob Marks got it with Muscles Yankee and turned him into a great sire despite the knockers.
http://www.mediafire.com/?vnh2n2v3bh665
It looks like "deja-vu" all over again as Deweycheatumnhowe looks to be following the same script. Ma Chere Hall set a two year old filly track record at Vernon Downs of 1.54.2 and joins two previous winners by Dewey with over $100K made to date. All three are from Conway Hall mares.That should not be a surprise to anyone that read my blog entry on January 28th, 2011. Here is what I said then in predicting what yearlings to look for .
"There were two things that you could expect for sure in Deweycheatumnhowes first crop.
Firstly that there would be several named similarily to their sire and so it is no surprise that track announcers will have to contend with Deweyconumnwow, Deweyflashthemnow, Deweykidumnhowe, Deweytrotandhowe etc.
The second guarantee is that stallion master Alan Leavitt would get the pedigrees right. One of the most important things that breeding farms have to be aware of is stallion succession and making sure that your next sire takes advantage of the daughters of your previous sire The daughters of Garland Lobell and his sons Andover, Angus and Conway Hall will do just that very nicely - thank you very much.
It was also no surprise that Walnut Hall mares are responsible for almost one third of his first crop of 82 yearlings. Not that there is a problem with that since there are few breeders who can energize a stallion's career like Mr Leavitt.
It is too bad Dewey did not come along ten years earlier when Garland Lobell mares were at their peak production but there are still some on the Walnut Hall premises with the colt Creole Hall being from Canland Hall. Alan had a good back up plan though since he also has a number of mares by Striking Sahbra from Garland Lobell mares. Since Dewey's maternal lines are Speedy Somolli and Noble Victory, and Striking Sahbra's dam is by Speedy Somolli with Garland Lobell being a grandson of Noble Victory you can see the strong maternal connection here
Mares by sons of Garland Lobell, notably the Hall brothers, are also featured in the first crop. Since they collectively did their best work with Speedy Crown line mares and down the line to Valley Victory they are a natural fit to the Noble Victory - Speedy Somolli combination in Deweycheatumnhowe, the same maternal combination as in the dam of Muscles Yankee who was Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. There are several yearlings with Valley Victory - Speedy Crown on the maternal line and if you read the note from Nicolas Matzka on the One Trick Ponies posting you can see that pattern is becoming an attractive feature, at least in Europe.
There are several other ways to match to Dewey and one is to use Super Bowl line dams with Speedy Crown or Noble Victory doubled maternally. This makes sense since Muscles Yankee did very well with the likes of Supergill and American Winner mares and since Deweys maternal lines are much the same you can reasonably expect his dad to be a pretty good role model. There are several yearlings in this category."
Below is a link to the sire profiile for Deweycheatumnhowe based on his top 16 performers. Seven of the top 10 were bred by Alan Leavitt. The top six and twelve of the top 16 are all from mares by Garland Lobell or one of his sons, Conway, Andover or Angus Hall or by Balanced Image. Ten of these have a Speedy Crown line maternally in the 2nd or 3rd dam. The other two have no Speedy Crown but have an additional Noble Victory line maternally. There is one from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown, an option that I also suggested. This possibility also extends to Arnie Almahurst line dams since there are two dams by sons of Pine Chip that are inbred to Speedy Crown line.
This is an excellent example of how you can predict what mares will do best with a new stallion. There is no reason for breeders to do otherwise. It is not rocket science. If you are still not sure give Alan Leavitt a call - he obviously gets it, just like Bob Marks got it with Muscles Yankee and turned him into a great sire despite the knockers.
http://www.mediafire.com/?vnh2n2v3bh665
Monday, September 10, 2012
Harrisburg Yearling Profiles
Here they are - 1200 of the finest yearlings in North America. There is something for everyone in this sale with a broad selection of the best sires in the USA and Canada.
You can access the pedigrees on the Black Book website.
Happy hunting
Attachment: Harrisburg Pacing Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Harrisburg Trotting Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Harrisburg Trotting Yearling Profiles.pdf
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Indiana Premier Sale
This sale to be held the last week in September has much the same selection as the Hoosier Classic. Another nice group of, for the most part, well matched yearlings by Swan For All in this sale.
Hoosier Classic Yearlings
The biggest yearling sale in Indiana is the Hoosier Classic coming up in mid October. There are 330 in the sale but seriously there are only a handful of the sires that could give you a shot at something special.
Sand Shooter is well represented but has been shooting blanks with his first crop as two year olds. Always A Virgin is another sire popular last year with his first offerings but he is still a virgin as far as having a serious stakes contender. Panspacificflight had early success with the colt Flight Elal but has not followed through on that success. Perhaps the buyers can find a good one by first crop sire Total Truth who has 27 yearlings listed. He may have a problem though in finding something in the mares to match up to his somewhat old fashioned maternal line of Walton Hanover - Meadow Skipper. Hi is out of a full sister to Totally Western who is standing in New York. The best one by Totally Western is typical of what you will need to look for as it is from a mare line-bred to Meadow Skipper and doubles that sire back 4x4 to the dam of Totally Western. To the extent you can also find mares that have a Big Towner line that should add to the opportunities. Too bad there is only one yearling from a mare by Keystone Raider. His name is The Simple Truth and he could be one of the best to be truthful.
The big sire in the sale this year, other than perennial favourite Jailhouse Jesse should be first crop sire Swan For All. He has a unique maternal line that is line bred to Baltic Speed. As a son of Andover Hall from a double Speedy Crown line dam he has a great model to follow in Majestic Son who has established his profile as expected that features the following factors:
Non Speedy Crown line mares with Stars Pride and Arnie Almahurst maternally, mares that are line-bred to Speedy Crown, and mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top three fit the first profile factor, his next three fit the second profile factor and the next two his third factor.
Someone has done their homework well in choosing the mares for Swan For All as 16 of the 26 yearlings in this sale are right on the profile and several others you can make a case for in part. I particularly like the colts All For The Crown and Controller. The former has a pedigree that would put him in the upper ranks in a major sale. There are also some very daring pedigrees for some of the fillies such as Swan Life To Live from a Lindy Lane mare bringing that sire 3x2 maternally across the pedigree. It is a filly though and such pedigrees have been known to produce something very special. Swan Princess, from a mare by Valley Victory, is another bold move but I would not ignore her.
Attachment: Sire Profile for Majestic Son.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Attachment: Controller Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: All For The Crown Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Attachment: Controller Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: All For The Crown Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Yearlings by Well Said
The first crop yearlings by Well Said are highly anticipated and the major sales have many on offer but how do you pick out the ones with the best chance of success based on pedigree. As I have noted before, the process is actually quite simple and you can indeed forecast what type of mares Well Said will do best with. First you must find a sire with similar maternal lines that already has foals racing. If you check the Stallion Chooser you will find two such sires, Village Jolt and Western Maverick.
Well Said is by Western Hanover and his maternal line combines Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Matts Scooter (Direct Scooter)
Western Maverick is by Western Hanover and his maternal lines are through Laag (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter
Village Jolt is by Cams Card Shark and his dam is Life Sign (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter. In fact the maternal line of Village Jolt has similarities to that of Well Said that extend back several more generations.
These three sires share a basic profile that calls for:
Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Meadow Skipper line dams with a second dam through Adios or Volomite, or double Meadow Skipper line dams.
Looking at the sire profiles for Village Jolt and Western Maverick (attached) you will find that the top 16 performers for each sire are almost equally distributed between Meadow Skipper line (red) and Non Meadow Skipper line (other than red). In the case of Village Jolt by Cams Card Shark the Meadow Skipper lines are usually through Most Happy Fella other than through Cam Fella, while Western Maverick for the most part preferred mares of any other Meadow Skipper line including the MHF lines through Tyler B and Cam Fella. Well Said can be expected to do likewise.
Looking closer at the profiles you will see that regardless of the sire line of the mare there are two very specific elements in play. 30 of the 32 listed performers have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire and 30 of the 32, not necessarily the same 30, have a 1st to 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam through Abercrombie or Adios (blue) and/or Volomite (green) quite often the Direct Scooter line.
This makes the process very simple. A single statement combining these two elements covers 95% of the top performers. There are always excceptions such as R Lil King with no Meadow Skipper line maternally but in his case the broodmare sire, Armbro Getty, combines both Abercrombie and the Volomite line sire Horton Hanover. Lil Motion has no Adios line but has a direct connection to Sampson Direct, sire of Direct Scooter.While these are exceptions to the general profile there are valid reasons to justify their success based on pedigree. The only other one in the top performers of either sire that falls outside the profile is Magic Maverick with no Adios or Volomite line but his dam is inbred to Good Time and if you can find a Well Said from a similar mare then it obviously cannot be ignored.
You will be surprised to see which of the Well Said yearlings fit or don't fit this profile. That profile for Well Said was clearly established when he went to stud based on the performers by Western Maverick and Village Jolt. Did the breeders guess right ? This time next year you will find out whether breeders guesses win out over informed decisions based on following the profile.
Now I dont want anyone to interpret my remarks as a condemnation of Well Said because of his similar pedigree to two essentially failed sires. The mares that Well Said received are far superior in quality. That in itself does not guarantee success but if there are sufficient of the correct type with respect to profile he will do very well. He is, after all, a superior individual as a racehorse and in his own maternal family.
Attachment: Well Said Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Village Jolt Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Western Maverick Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Village Jolt.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Western Maverick.pdf
Attachment: Village Jolt Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Western Maverick Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Village Jolt.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Western Maverick.pdf
Friday, August 31, 2012
Understanding the Yearling Profiles
The profiles list the yearlings grouped alphabetically by sire. There are four sire profile columns which identify the sires of the first four dams in the pedigree. Each is colour coded to help identify the sire line - For pacers the red is Meadow Skipper, Blue is Adios line, Green is Volomite line and occasionally you will see light blue for the Big Towner line. For the trotters red is the Speedster line, Blue is Stars Pride, green is Volomite through Victory Song and brown is the rarely seen Axworthy line.
Below each sire name is a group of letters e.g. AHKMO which represents the maternal traces to key mares Adioo, Hatteras, Kathleen, Manette and Oniska. M2 is the inbred Margaret Parrish and A2 is Helen Hanover. These traces when combined in a pedigree often give a pattern which is common to the top performers known as the X-profile of the dam - this is shown in the last column. To the left of this combination is a tabulation by trace that shows which traces are doubled in the mares pedigree with each trace doubled signified by the number 1.
Also below the sire names in the first and second columns you will see two numbers e.g. 60 18. This is the cross statistic and in this case it shows the cross has produced 60 of racing age and 18% have earned over $100K. A good percentage is 15%. Any crosses lower than that should be carefully examined to make sure the yearling in question is similar, or not, to the few successful ones. The stats under the first column refer to the primary cross of sire and broodmare sire in the yearling while the second column shows the secondary cross of the mare herself. In the case of a new sire the primary cross numbers will show 0 0.
The yearling profiles should be used in conjunction with the Stallion profiles. As a Multiply member and a friend of this site you have access to these stallion profiles which show the top performers for each stallion in a format similar to the yearling profiles. Each stallion profile also indicates in summary the profile factors to look for in the yearling e.g. a stallion may favour non Meadow Skipper line mares, or mares that combine certain individuals, or Super Bowl line dams with a second dam through Speedy Crown etc. For those stallions that have yet to see their progeny race you can use a similar stallion as a model, as I have discussed in several recent entries regarding sires like Muscle Hill.
Once you have narrowed down the list to the ones that fit the sire profile and have good cross stats then you can put a number on the pedigree that is based on the speed and earnings in the first three dams. Rating the pedigrees like this gives you a priority list for inspection. You can then add any adjustments based on conformation to arrive at your short list of yearlings that fit your criteria based on cost, jurisdiction, gait, sex etc.
Doing your homework like this is not a guarantee that you will buy the next champion. It will, however, prevent you from making costly mistakes and greatly improve your chances of success, not to mention the reduced wear on your shoes.
If this all sounds like too much work then you can always call me for the yearling ratings for any sale. You can get them in total, by gait, by sex, or by racing jurisdiction. Once all of the sales are listed you can even get a North America Top 100 list for any gait/sex combination. For details and pricing email me at norman_g_hall@hotmail.com or send a private message through this site.
Check to see if the pedigree is right before you write the cheque.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Lexington Selected Sale
Attached are the profiles for the Lexington yearlings selling October 2nd - 6th. The sale has 703 catalogued which is down about 10% from last year, a reflection of the continuing drop in yearling numbers in North America. The Harrisburg sale also shows a drop in numbers overall when you factor in the extra ones last year from the aborted New Jersey sale but I understand the increase in Canadian entries has offset that somewhat.
I will get to the Harrisburg sale in a couple of weeks after I look at Morrisville and the other Indiana sales. Between the big two, Harrisburg and Lexington, there will be about 2000 yearlings to look at, an impossible task if you want to inspect them all. There is a better way and that is to narrow the list for inspection down to those that fit the profile of the sire. This typically cuts the overall list to 25% and from there you can shorten it further by your preference for gait. sex or racing jurisdiction. The Black Book has a neat new feature that you can use to store your list and the ratings you give for pedigree and conformation. Both sales will also be available on the Horse sale app from Equineline.
I will post the profiles for the stallions in both sales over the next two weeks under the Links section. To access them you will need to join Multiply and send me a friend request if you have not already done so.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Forest City Pacing Yearlings
Attached are the profiles for the pacing bred yearlings for the Forest City sale in October. The quality here tends to be higher than the Canadian Open since it is somewhat of a select sale but the sire selection is essentially the same with emphasis on the stallions standing at Seelster Farms, one of the owners of the sale.
The outcome of the Canadian sales does not look promising with the current Liberal government doing significant damage to the industry as a whole with their proposal to end the funding from slots revenues at the tracks. That does not, however, affect the quality of the yearlings and their potential as race horses in other jurisdictions. I think we all wish for a successful outcome.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The Adios Sale
The first yearling sale of 2012 takes place on the 27th at The Meadows in Pennsylvania. The Adios sale features 30 yearlings from Hanover Shoe Farms from a variety of their sires including one by Somebeachsomewhere and three by first crop trotting sire Explosive Matter. There is also a very interesting colt by Donato Hanover called Cold Front Hanover.
The profiles for the yearlings are attached and I will post the updated stallion profiles for the sires in this sale shortly on the Links page.
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