Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Yearlings by Well Said

The first crop yearlings by Well Said are highly anticipated and the major sales have many on offer but how do you pick out the ones with the best chance of success based on pedigree. As I have noted before, the process is actually quite simple and you can indeed forecast what type of mares Well Said will do best with. First you must find a sire with similar maternal lines that already has foals racing. If you check the Stallion Chooser you will find two such sires, Village Jolt and Western Maverick.

Well Said is by Western Hanover and his maternal line combines Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Matts Scooter (Direct Scooter)

Western Maverick is by Western Hanover and his maternal lines are through Laag (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter

Village Jolt is by Cams Card Shark and his dam is Life Sign (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter. In fact the maternal line of Village Jolt has similarities to that of Well Said that extend back several more generations.

These three sires share a basic profile that calls for:

Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Meadow Skipper line dams with a second dam through Adios or Volomite, or double Meadow Skipper line dams.

Looking at the sire profiles for Village Jolt and Western Maverick (attached) you will find that the top 16 performers for each sire are almost equally distributed between Meadow Skipper line (red) and Non Meadow Skipper line (other than red). In the case of Village Jolt by Cams Card Shark the Meadow Skipper lines are usually through Most Happy Fella other than through Cam Fella, while Western Maverick for the most part preferred mares of any other Meadow Skipper line including the MHF lines through Tyler B and Cam Fella. Well Said can be expected to do likewise.

Looking closer at the profiles you will see that regardless of the sire line of the mare there are two very specific elements in play. 30 of the 32 listed performers have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire and 30 of the 32, not necessarily the same 30, have a 1st to 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam through Abercrombie or Adios (blue) and/or Volomite (green) quite often the Direct Scooter line.

This makes the process very simple. A single statement combining these two elements covers 95% of the top performers. There are always excceptions such as R Lil King with no Meadow Skipper line maternally but in his case the broodmare sire, Armbro Getty, combines both Abercrombie and the Volomite line sire Horton Hanover. Lil Motion has no Adios line but has a direct connection to Sampson Direct, sire of Direct Scooter.While these are exceptions to the general profile there are valid reasons to justify their success based on pedigree. The only other one in the top performers of either sire that falls outside the profile is Magic Maverick with no Adios or Volomite line but his dam is inbred to Good Time and if you can find a Well Said from a similar mare then it obviously cannot be ignored.

You will be surprised to see which of the Well Said yearlings fit or don't fit this profile. That profile for Well Said was clearly established when he went to stud based on the performers by Western Maverick and Village Jolt. Did the breeders guess right ? This time next year you will find out whether breeders guesses win out over informed decisions based on following the profile.

Now I dont want anyone to interpret my remarks as a condemnation of Well Said because of his similar pedigree to two essentially failed sires. The mares that Well Said received are far superior in quality. That in itself does not guarantee success but if there are sufficient of the correct type with respect to profile he will do very well. He is, after all, a superior individual as a racehorse and in his own maternal family.

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