Are you still looking for a yearling that could be the next World Champion? Chances are that Harrisburg is the place to look. The largest sale in terms of entries can be a daunting task to find the right horse but if you prepare yourself by creating a short list of what you want, whether it is by sex, gait, jurisdiction or sire it will save you a lot of time when it comes to inspecting your choices in the flesh.
Most successful trainers like to see as many of the horses they can prior to the sale by visiting the farms where they can see the yearlings run in the paddock rather than depend upon the videos. For most prospective owners this is next to impossible unless they are self employed and can take a month off. Since it ultimately is the owners responsibility to pay the bills, not just for buying but for training and staking your purchases over the next nine months till they hopefully qualify to race, a good way to ensure that your investment is a wise one is to do your own research into the pedigrees.
Stallion profiles are an invaluable aid to short listing the sale entries. Every stallion has a profile based on the mares he has been successful with. You can even use the profile of a similar stallion when trying to predict the fate of first crop stallions whose progeny have yet to race. This year there are just a handful of first crop sires including Manofmanymissions and Roll With Joe, both with sizeable consignments. Roll With Joe is a full brother to Bettors Delight and you know what the profile of Bettors Delight is don't you. You don't ? Well join the majority of buyers at any sale who blindly follow their trainers into making bad decisions.
By tabulating the top performers by a particular sire to show the sire lines in their pedigrees you will see a pattern emerge than can be summarized in one or two sentences that key on the presence or absence of certain sire lines e.g. Meadow Skipper, Adios, Volomite, Big Towner etc. For Bettors Delight the profile has two factors and reads:
1. Non Meadow Skipper line dams with a second or third dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire (11)
2. Most Happy Fella line dams with a second or third dam by an Adios line sire (5)
A quick scan of the top 16 shows that 15 of them have an Albatross line and 15 have an Adios line through Abercrombie (9), Bret Hanover (5) and Adios Vic (1)
If you go through the 36 Roll With Joe yearlings and eliminate on the basis of not having the requisite Meadow Skipper and Adios lines you cut the list to 17. It is shocking, to me at least, to note that the number of yearlings with Meadow Skipper line dams is 25 or 70%, while the percentage of the top 16 performers by Bettors Delight with Meadow Skipper line dams is the very opposite at 30% - now somebody is not doing their homework when it comes to selecting a stallion. And if you think the consignors of the 45 yearlings by Bettors Delight have done any better, with a profile that has not changed since his first crop hit the tracks in 2003, then think again because the number is slightly worse at 71% Meadow Skipper line dams.
Here are the profiles for the Trotting and pacing yearlings in Harrisburg. Now do your homework and put the percentages in your favor. The pedigrees are all in the PM Online database and if you sign up at the Guru level prior to the Harrisburg sale you can get your first year subscription at half price - that's a saving of $100 and you get my sale reports for Harrisburg for half price too and access to the PM Online library where the all important Stallion Profiles are kept. E-mail me to obtain these special offers with the subject "Harrisburg Offers".
Showing posts with label sale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sale. Show all posts
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Canadian Open 2014
This year's version of the Canadian Open, to be held on Sunday 14th, lists just 164 yearlings, a far cry from the previous sales that often topped 300 entries. That was before the Liberal government gutted the breeding industry and the effects of that move are now seen here. Not only is the number down but most of the good mares have obviously been bred to other jusrisdictions so the quality has taken a big drop too. Old standby sires like Camluck, Mach Three and Angus Hall are still there but they are now serving a depleted and weaker mare population. Not that there is any great competition with just a handful of new sires like Big Jim and Manofmanymissions to share the leftovers with.
The pacing yearlings will no doubt be highlighted by the ones in the second crop of Sportswriter who has been the dominant sire of two year olds in the Ontario Sires Stakes. New sires Big Jim and Vintage Master will also get some attention.
Sportswriter has just five in this sale. His sire profile is quickly being established and shows a definite preference for No Nukes line dams as well as those with Big Towner maternally. Not surprising since his maternal lines are Jate Lobell - Big Towner. That group makes up 10 of the top 16. There are five by Cam Fella line dams all of which are linebred to Meadow Skipper. The best one, though, is from a mare by On The Road Again although he too traces through to Most Happy Fella and the dam is the dam of the great Rainbow Blue so is an exception in more ways than one.
Big Jim has 7 entries and you can get a pretty good idea of what to expect there by looking at the best by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin, both sires that share similar maternal lines to Big Jim featuring Big Towner and Albatross. Albatross is a big factor in the mares with 22 of the best 32 by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin having that sire or one of his sons maternally and five of the others showing Big Towner. Overall the best are split 50-50 between Most Happy Fella line dams and non-Meadow Skipper line dams with each of them showing Big Towner in 5 of their top 16.
Vintage Master has five yearlings. He is a virtual copy of his sire Western Ideal (maternal lines of Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper) being a No Nukes line sire with Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper) maternally so you can expect him to like the same kind of mares as his sire. They are in a general category of sires that prefer non Meadow Skipper line dams with the exception of Meadow Skipper linebred dams. In Western Ideal's case the ratio is 12 to 4 for his top 16.
The big news for the trotters will be the first crop of Manofmanymissions, the fast but quirky son of Yankee Glide, who has since left to stand in Ohio. With 13 yearlings his is the second largest group, next to Angus Hall with 14 entries. He has a unique maternal line of Garland Lobell - Super Bowl and there is no active sire with foals racing with that combination. Cantab Hall has a Garland Lobell dam with a Super Bowl son third dam so may offer some clues but the key will clearly be Super Bowl. Sires with Super Bowl or Bonefish second dams invariably do best with Super Bowl line dams or those with second or third dams through Super Bowl. Similar sires include Hard Rock N Roll and Keystone Savage with most of their best ones keying on Super Bowl or Bonefish maternally in addition to Noble Victory lines. The Noble Victory line brings Angus Hall and Balanced Image mares into play especially those with Super Bowl.
I will post the sire profiles for the sires in the Canadian Open in the PM Online library. Tomorrow we will look at the OHIO Jug sale also taking place Monday 15th.
The pacing yearlings will no doubt be highlighted by the ones in the second crop of Sportswriter who has been the dominant sire of two year olds in the Ontario Sires Stakes. New sires Big Jim and Vintage Master will also get some attention.
Sportswriter has just five in this sale. His sire profile is quickly being established and shows a definite preference for No Nukes line dams as well as those with Big Towner maternally. Not surprising since his maternal lines are Jate Lobell - Big Towner. That group makes up 10 of the top 16. There are five by Cam Fella line dams all of which are linebred to Meadow Skipper. The best one, though, is from a mare by On The Road Again although he too traces through to Most Happy Fella and the dam is the dam of the great Rainbow Blue so is an exception in more ways than one.
Big Jim has 7 entries and you can get a pretty good idea of what to expect there by looking at the best by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin, both sires that share similar maternal lines to Big Jim featuring Big Towner and Albatross. Albatross is a big factor in the mares with 22 of the best 32 by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin having that sire or one of his sons maternally and five of the others showing Big Towner. Overall the best are split 50-50 between Most Happy Fella line dams and non-Meadow Skipper line dams with each of them showing Big Towner in 5 of their top 16.
Vintage Master has five yearlings. He is a virtual copy of his sire Western Ideal (maternal lines of Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper) being a No Nukes line sire with Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper) maternally so you can expect him to like the same kind of mares as his sire. They are in a general category of sires that prefer non Meadow Skipper line dams with the exception of Meadow Skipper linebred dams. In Western Ideal's case the ratio is 12 to 4 for his top 16.
The big news for the trotters will be the first crop of Manofmanymissions, the fast but quirky son of Yankee Glide, who has since left to stand in Ohio. With 13 yearlings his is the second largest group, next to Angus Hall with 14 entries. He has a unique maternal line of Garland Lobell - Super Bowl and there is no active sire with foals racing with that combination. Cantab Hall has a Garland Lobell dam with a Super Bowl son third dam so may offer some clues but the key will clearly be Super Bowl. Sires with Super Bowl or Bonefish second dams invariably do best with Super Bowl line dams or those with second or third dams through Super Bowl. Similar sires include Hard Rock N Roll and Keystone Savage with most of their best ones keying on Super Bowl or Bonefish maternally in addition to Noble Victory lines. The Noble Victory line brings Angus Hall and Balanced Image mares into play especially those with Super Bowl.
I will post the sire profiles for the sires in the Canadian Open in the PM Online library. Tomorrow we will look at the OHIO Jug sale also taking place Monday 15th.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Lexington Trotting Yearlings
The trotting yearlings in Lexington this year will offer a large number from the first crops of Lucky Chucky and Muscle Massive. The buyers are lucky to have some help in picking out the right ones with the help of profiles from Donato Hanover and Muscle Mass respectively.
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Lucky Chucky is by Windsongs Legacy, a son of Conway Hall while Donato is by Andover Hall, his full brother. They are both out of mares by sons of Valley Victory, Muscles Yankee and Donerail, and both of these sires are Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. The second dams of Lucky Chucky and Donato Hanover are by grandsons of Stars Pride, one by a son of Nevele Pride and the other by a son of Super Bowl.
Donato Hanover has been very successful breeding to mares by Speedy Crown line sires particularily sons and grandsons of Valley Victory and especially those with second or third dams through Super Bowl or Bonefish (Nevele Pride) so you can reasonably expect Lucky Chucky to do likewise. Interestingly the best one by Donato is the reverse being from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown and while this is a minority part of the profile it did produce the best one and similar pedigrees for Lucky Chucky are therefore worth looking at.
The unfortunate part though, is that the breeders, as it seems for every new sire, have for the most part guessed wrong again and I can put just seven yearlings by Lucky Chucky on my acceptable pedigree list from the 27 entries and a couple of those are stretches of the imagination.
Muscle Massive and Muscle Mass are full brothers so they are pretty much guaranteed to fit the same type of mares although they do stand in different jurisdictions so there will be some regional variation in the broodmare sires accordingly. Muscle Massive was also the better racehorse, being a Hambletonian winner, and his success rate should be better considering the quality of the mares to which he has been bred. That is not a guarantee, however, since Muscle Massive, like Lucky Chucky, has not been well treated by the breeders with respect to the right mares.
I wrote about the situation of Muscle Mass in an earlier blog on the 2012 first crop sires racing results. I was disappointed with his performance and although his second crop has produced an exceptional filly to go with the one really good colt in his first crop he still has not made much of an impression beyond the Grassroots level with the rest of his performers in Ontario. I mentioned the lack of matings to Angus Hall mares by Muscle Mass which I felt was the big problem there but Massive seems to have a better selection with several good mares by Andover, Conway and Angus Hall in this sale. The key here, of course iis the Arnie Almahurst line dam and coupled with Valley Victory maternally is a logical fit for Muscle Massive.
The other part of the profile to look for is for mares with no Speedy Crown maternally, the pattern for Riveting Rosie by Muscle Mass. One interesting nick is that all of the five $100K plus winners to date have third dams through Super Bowl or another son of Stars Pride. Where that comes from I don't know but given the "all over the map" nature of the profile for Muscle Mass to date it is the only part of the profile that fits all of his best.That and the fact that 13 of his top 16 are from non Speedy Crown line dams should help to find the better ones.
The profiles for both the pacing and trotting yearlings can be found here
http://www.mediafire.com/download/o699cf4l6offoei/Lexington_Pacing_Yearlings.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/96en5m5wmtcf23c/Lexington_2013_Trotting_Yearling_Profile.pdf
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)