First Crop Sires in 2017
This year's yearling sales feature the first yearlings by
some stellar racehorses. Captaintreacherous and Trixton are the ones most
people are looking forward to buying, if they can afford them that is. In
addition to Captaintreacherous the pacing yearlings will also have first
offerings from other sons of Somebeachsomewhere such as Sunshine Beach, and
from great performers like Sweet Lou. The trotting sires joining Trixton as
first timers include other sons of Muscle Hill like E L Titan, plus Father Patrick, Royalty For Life, and
Uncle Peter.
Established sires have all shown, through their sire profiles, the type of mare with which they succeed. Even the second crop sires such as A
Rocknroll Dance and Archangel have developed a pattern of success that can now
be used to separate the few with a reasonable chance of success from the many
that do not. But how do you know what kind of mares the first crop sires will
succeed with? The answer most likely is
to be found in the profiles of similar sires, especially those with similar
maternal lines.
The maternal lines of Captaintreacherous are Artsplace and
Nihilator and he has a very strong maternal family that includes successful and
would be sires such as Art Major, Real Artist, Perfect Art, Panspacificflight,
World Of Rocknroll, Beachtrea and Wake Up Peter, in addition to several world
champion performers on the track.
On the surface this appears to be a cant-miss sire but there
are some question marks. In addition to World of Rocknroll, from a full sister
to the dam of Captaintreacherous, there is Kenneth J who has the same maternal
combination of Artsplace and Nihilator. Both have horses of racing age and
neither has so far shown any great or consistent siring ability. Kenneth J's best
from 247 of racing age is Murder She Wrote with $192K made and he has now left
the North America stallion ranks. Even in failure, however, we can pick up some
useful information. Of his 8 winners of over $100K five are from mares by sons
of Abercrombie or Artsplace, and two others have Abercrombie or a son
maternally. The lone exception is from a Jennas Beach Boy mare that is both
line bred and inbred to the Meadow Skipper line. This inbreeding to the Meadow
Skipper line occurs in all eight of Kenneth J's best and features a maternal line mare by Meadow Skipper, a son or an
Albatross line as one or both of the inbred lines.
World Of Rocknroll also has eight winners of over $100K and
although the Abercrombie connection is not as prominent with five such mares,
the Meadow Skipper connection through mares line bred or inbred is also present in
all eight.
Looking at the broader context of sires with Artsplace dams
we find a strikingly similar situation especially with regard to the presence
of Albatross in the dams of the best performers. There are 23 such sires with
foals of racing age and the best in terms of top performers is Western Terror
with a success rate of 18.2%. The overall success rate for sires with Artsplace
dams, however, is just 10.2% and considerably shy of the 15% level for
"just average" sires. Artsplace was a 24.4% sire and is 19.6% as a
broodmare sire but those stats do not necessarily carry on to the next
generation. Other current sires with Artsplace dams and several crops racing
include Canyon Wind (13.4%), Well Said
(12.1%), Rock N Roll Heaven (11.3%), Metropolitan (11.7%), If I Can Dream
(9.4%), Artistic Fella (9.1%), Big Bad John (5.4%), P Forty Seven (7.2%),
Vintage Master (2.6%), Kenneth J (5.5%), World Of Rocknroll (6.7%).
None of these sires, however, are by the great Somebeachsomewhere
and that may make a difference but then again maybe it will not. His first two
sons with progeny racing are So Surreal and Net Ten Eom. So Surreal was a fast
but unsound son of the great Artsplace mare Must See, dam of Well Said. He has
one decent one from his first crop of 52 two year olds that has made just over
$85K in Azreal As It Gets and true to form this one is from a mare linebred to
Meadow Skipper. Net Ten Eom is from an equally well respected Artsplace mare in
Glowing Report, but like So Surreal was unsound as a racehorse and is
struggling in his first crop of 72 with the best earning just $14,560 so far.
His profile also is showing a preference for mares line bred or inbred to
Meadow Skipper.
There is an old theory first written about in the original
Care And Training of the Trotter And Pacer published by the USTA. In the
chapter on breeding the author, James C Harrison, wrote "All of the
foundation sires of the breed were relatively short bred maternally in the
sense that none of the female families that produced them ever established
lasting maternal families of their own"
Does this mean that stallions from top quality mares such as Must See
and Glowing Report, are doomed to failure?
The family of Somebeachsomewhere is nowhere to be found in the top 300
maternal families. His maternal line goes back to Rosa (1868) and it took 100
years before Lil Miss Thompson was born and subsequently produced the first
$100K winner , Jambooger by Albatross, in 1974. Researching the descendents of
Lil Miss Thompson shows just 38 winners of over $100K before Somebeachsomewhere
came along. The best one was Giveittoemstraight ($613K) from a 3/4 sister to
the second dam of Somebeachsomewhere.
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