Mcwicked

Congratulations to my longtime customer Ed James and his 3 year old colt McWicked winner of the $500,000 Hempt final. Ed paid $210000 for him at the Harrisburg sale on my recommendation. He now has a world record holder and the fastest three year old in North America. This year I think I will finally go to the Little Brown Jug to see him crowned as the fastest three year old of all time on a half mile track. Then to Lexington to beat the all time record for any size track.

Every year the Harrisburg mixed sale has a number of two year olds for sale. Most are ignored because the buyers assume they are being dumped for good reason. That is not necessarily so. Ed James has had great success with someone elses rejects and Mcwicked is just the latest example. In past years he has plucked, at my recommendation, horses like Hyperion Hanover a winner of over $1.2 million and Indiana Hall with over $830K among others.

The secret is to find a pedigree matched horse that shows something special, like a fast quarter. It is not difficult to narrow down the possibilities and in fact Mcwicked was one of only three in the sale last year that met the criteria and by far the best on paper.

His pedigree is great from a pedigree matching standpoint. He is outcrossed on sire line Adios to Meadow Skipper and he is inbred maternally to Albatross and Most Happy Fella. He is also outcrossed through to the maternal lines of grandsire Falcon Seelster through Volomite and Adios.

As a two year old he showed a last quarter in 27 in winning a PA Sire Stake event. That kind of speed is unusual in young horses and made him a standout on that alone.

Percentages

One of the things you must know if you breed or buy horses is that genetically you are likely to have just one out of four breedings to the same sire that produce something special. Mind you 25% is a lot better than the 4-5% success rate for breeders overall but be prepared to be disappointed more often than not.

There have been some exceptions to the genetic rule such as the Hall brothers, Conway, Angus and Andover who were three of eight, and there have been exceptions in the other direction such as Albatross and his eight failed full siblings making him one of nine.

Another good case in point is the success of world record 2yo trotter Cooler Schooner 2,1.51.3f who is already over two seconds faster that her full sister Broadway Schooner, a winner of  $895K.  There have been two others with the same breeding who raced but did not beat 1.57.

What was the difference ? The pedigree is the same but the random nature of genes and how they interact defies sameness and indeed if you compared all four individuals you would likely see why. Conformation is a big part in yearling selection especially when you are looking at full siblings to something special.  Deweycheatumnhowe had four full siblings before he came along, all of them raced, but Ray Schnitker claimed that Dewey was much the best conformed of them all. It is generally agreed that Andover Hall was the best conformed of the Hall brothers too and his results as a sire have backed that up although I'm sure there are some contrary opinions regarding Conway Hall whose son Windsongs Legacy could have been one of the greats of all time but for his early death.

Getting back to Cooler Schooner she is by Broadway Hall, another son of Conway Hall, and from a mare that is inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. This is a typical feature of sires that have no Speedy Crown maternally. In the case of Cooler Schooner, however, she also has a double connection to Conway Hall since her dam carries a combination of  Arnie Almahurst and Stars Pride, as does the dam of Conway Hall.

The bigger farms seldom go back to the same sire since they have so many stallion options. It keeps the buyers guessing but it results in a lot of failed breedings, hence the 4-5% success rate. So what do you do as a breeder ?  Make sure that your first choice is your best choice and stick with it. The percentages will repay you accordingly. 

Whos Watching Hes Watching

Last night the world saw it’s first two year old colt to pace in 1:50 over a 5/8 track. Hes Watching, a $3,000 purchase at Harrisburg, was an easy winner and a boost to the fortunes of his sire American Ideal who has struggled to produce top colts. With the exception of Heston Blue Chip the other ones in his top four are all fillies. These four millionaires would be a credit to any sire’s record but with an overall success rate of about 6% in producing winners of over $100K, American Ideal needs this colt badly to further his career.

Bred by Brittany Farms the pedigree of Hes Watching has the stamp of my fellow pedigree guru Myron Bell, the pedigree brain of Brittany Farms, all over it. Myron will tell anyone that he does not care what the sire line is, he is only interested in what the maternal lines are and he is particularly fond of sibling and maternal crosses to great mares. Much of the success of Brittany Farms has come from their initial purchase of the Bill Sheehan farm and its broodmares. Many of these mares featured such maternal powerhouses as K Nora and Golden Miss. The latter is a principal conduit of Helen Hanover and both of these mares trace back on the X-factor trail to By By, a grand daughter of Miss Russell through her son Nutwood. K Nora is actually the maternal family of both American Ideal and his sire Western Ideal. But that is not all that is in play in the pedigree of Hes Watching, or the pedigrees of American Ideal’s current top four.

American Jewel was almost unbeatable before running into atrial fibrillation problems, not uncommon in exceptional individuals. The striking feature of her pedigree was the X-factor maternal cross of the great Three Diamonds, a grand-daughter of K Nora. What is perhaps not so evident is that she also carries an x-factor double to Margaret Parrish through the maternal lines of Matts Scooter in her sire and Big Towner in her second dam.

Heston Blue Chip is a colt and his dam also carries a double to Helen Hanover through his Cams Card Shark dam and Cam Fella third dam. Big Towner is also present in the maternal line in X-factor position.

Idyllic has a maternal line that goes to Emily Guy, a grand daughter of Margaret Parrish through Arion Guy and is a double to the great x-factor mare Margaret Parrish accordingly.. She also has X-factor doubles to both Albatross and Bret Hanover as well as three x-Factor crosses to By By, the x-factor source inbred into Helen Hanover.

Romantic Moment doubles Margaret Parrish twice across her pedigree through her second dam by Nihilator and her third dam by Falcon Almahurst.

So how does Hes Watching’s pedigree compare to these other great horses by American Ideal ?  The first thing you see is a sibling cross of Lifetime Success to her half brother Life Sign. In addition there is another sibling cross with Western Ideal, the grand-sire of Hes Watching being a three quarter brother to Cheer Me Up, the third dam of Hes Watching. These sibling crosses are not an X-factor consideration but interesting features nevertheless especially the latter which is a pedigree pattern that has shown up recently in some top trotters such as Muscle Massive and features a brother and sister on the top sire line and the maternal line respectively.

What is most important though is the makeup of Hes Watching’s dam who is loaded for business with X-factor traces to Helen Hanover. The dam, Baberhood, is by Real Desire whose maternal line traces to the Sheehan mare Golden Miss and Helen Hanover accordingly and his dam is actually a Helen Hanover double with an additional trace through Trenton. Baberhood picks up another Helen Hanover double through her own dam by Jennas Beach Boy whose dam is by Cam Fella as well as tracing to Helen Hanover on his maternal line. Yet another Helen Hanover trace comes from Baberhood’s second dam by No Nukes and then her third dam is the great K Nora, grand dam of Three Diamonds.

This is a loaded X-factor pedigree that is ready to explode.  In my book Queen Among Queens I used both Real Desire and Jennas Beach Boy as examples of the power of Helen Hanover when doubled maternally in the maternal line. I also included the following in the chapter on X-factor:

“In his book Patterns of Greatness, Thoroughbred researcher Alan Porter noted the need to delve deeply into a pedigree to discover the underlying genetic strengths that are not apparent in the first six generations.

“This can reveal that one particular background cross has been built up to a point where it dominates a pedigree and reaches a critical mass reinforcing vital genes to the point where they explode in the form of a dynamic performer”.

Perhaps Alan Porter is watching Hes Watching from above and telling his heavenly buddies “I told you so”