Translate

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Kentucky Derby

One of the biggest horse races in North America is the Kentucky Derby. There are over 300 horses eligible but only 20 get to start based on their earnings and points earned during a series of races in what is known as The Road to The Kentucky Derby. According to the race website the current top 20 are as listed below. There are some interesting pedigrees among the leading contenders to date.

A look back at the past winners since 2000 shows an interesting trend in the pedigrees. Thorobred breeders generally favour a pedigree with as little inbreeding as possible and indeed with the possibile exception of 2000 winner Fusaichi Pegasus, that has been evident in recent history but interestingly the last five winners have had significant maternal inbreeding. Last year the winner was Orb by Malibu Moon. Orb was inbred maternally to Mr Prospector 3x4. The year before Ill Have Another shows maternal inbreeding to Northern Dancer 5x5. Both of these winners were outcrossed on sire line. In 2011 Animal Kingdom had a pedigree more typical of past winners with virtually no duplications in six generations other than a 4x4 double of Lyphard (Northern Dancer) from his second dam to the dam of his grandsire Candy Stripes. The 2010 winner Super Saver was double inbred to Nasrullah (Nearco) while Mine That Bird in 2009 was 4x4 to Northern Dancer (grandson of Nearco) maternally.

In recent times there has been a spate of big winners that show maternal doubles to Northern Dancer and /or Mr Prospector. I have noted the ones on the current list that have that pedigree feature.


1. We Miss Artie by Artie Schiller.           Raise A Native (sire of Mr Prospector) 5x(4x5)
2. Samraat by Noble Causeway                 Raise A Native 5x6, dam inbred to Raise A Native 5x5
3. Hoppertunity by Any Given Saturday   Danzig (Northern Dancer) 3x4, dam 4x3 Northern Dancer
4. Chitu by Henny Hughes
5. Intense Holiday by Harlans Holiday     Raise A Native 5x6
6. Midnight Hawk by Midnight Lute
7. Wildcat Red by D`Wildcat                    Nasrullah 6x6, Raise A Native 4x5
8. Ring Weekend by Tapit                         Fappiano (Mr Prospector) 4x3, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
9. California Chrome by Lucky Pulpit      Mr Prospector 4x3, dam inbred to Northern Dancer 4x5
10. Tapiture by Tapit                                 Raise A Native 6x6, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
11. Albano by Istan                                  
12. Uncle Sigh by Indian Charlie              Northern Dancer (Nearctic) 5x4
13, Vinceremos by Pioneerof The Nile     Bold Ruler (Nasrullah) 5x5
14. Vicars In Trouble by Into Mischief     Icecapade (Nearctic) 5x4
15. Harrys Holiday by Harlans Holiday
16.General A Rod by Roman Ruler          Danzig (Northern Dancer) 4x4
17. Ride On Curlin by Curlin                    Northern Dancer 5x4
18. Havana by Dunkirk
19 Cairo Prince by Pioneerof The Nile    
20. Kristo by Distorted Humor                 Northern Dancer 4x4, dam is 6x6 Nearco

Looks like 14 - 6 in favour of the current Derby pattern of maternal inbreeding.

Over the next month the top ones will compete in a number of Derby races in Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, California and the Wood Memorial in New York.  The current list could change dramatically in the two weeks based on the results of these Derby Prep races.

The pedigrees can be viewed on PM Online Globerunner

http://www.pedigreematching.com/index.aspx

Saturday, March 22, 2014

The Matchmaker

Every spring the best pacing mares in North America compete in the Matchmaker Series at Yonkers. The series is well named as the pedigrees of the four winners in the first leg are all great examples of Pedigree Matching in a variety of ways.

Coincidentally all four winners have Abercrombie line dams, two by Artsplace and one each by Life Sign and Artiscape and all four are by Meadow Skipper line sires so they satisfy the general rule of outcrossing on sire line. It is the maternal connections, however, that determine their greatness and the maternal breeding and X-factor doubles involved are something to see.

Angel's Delight is the least experienced of the four. Coming into the series with earnings of just over $100K she is a late bloomer whose pedigree is finally coming through. She is by Rocknroll Hanover and was bred by Lothlorien Stable in Ontario who were part owners of the stallion. Her dam, Belovedangel, was bought by Bob Mcintosh at Harrisburg as a yearling. Bob is a PM enthusiast from the early years and has been assisted by Dr Moira Gunn, formerly of Armstrong Farm, and one of my earliest PM followers. Moira and I combined forces to recommend the purchase of several mares for Lothlorien to breed to Rocknroll Hanover in his first year at stud. The highlight of that group was Kikikatie whose four breedings to Rocknroll Hanover have produced four $100K plus winners of over $2.5 million combined including first crop star Rockn Image $903,424. Belovedangel was also in that group of mares and although her five breedings to Rocknroll have been less spectacular they have produced five race starters, including a late racing two year old last year, with combined earnings approaching $500K including Audreys Dream $258K.

With an Artsplace dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper and from a mare that is also inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally, Angels Delight fit the expected profile for Rocknroll Hanover perfectly. Add to that her second dam by Matts Scooter providing a maternal double to Direct Scooter to compliment the double to Abercrombie and the success of this match was actually pretty predictable.

Summertime Lea also has a close connection to me from a pedigree matching standpoint. Her dam Donna Summer went through the New Jersey sale and I had recommended her purchase to one of my Prince Edward Island breeders. He was hesitant to pay a lot for a mare that had already produced a winner of $206K and she was in foal to Lislea for the fourth time and the first three had not been successful at the track. Two of those were colts, however, and the third was an as yet unraced yearling filly. The buyers were from Indiana and the resultant filly, Summertime Lea, ended up being trained by Ron Burke, making $553K racing in New York including the two year old NYSS championship. Genetics tells us that if you try the same breeding consistently you will get one of the four offspring that will be a top performer, 25%, and in this case it proved to be true.

Her dam is by Life Sign and as you can see from the pedigree that sire is a virtual clone of Lisheen, the dam of Lislea. The maternal sequence of both is Abercrombie - Albatross - Bret Hanover - Knight Dream with the last three sires being doubled in X-factor position. Added to this is a third dam also through Albatross making Donna Summer inbred maternally to that sire and also with an X-factor double to Bret Hanover. It helps too that Summertime Lea's second dam is a double to the X-factor pacing queen Helen Hanover.

Somwherovrtherainbow has a great mother in $1.6 million earner Rainbow Blue but even great race mares are no guarantee in the broodmare ranks unless they are bred to the right sire. After essentially failed breedings to top sires like Western Hanover, Bettors Delight and Dragon Again, she was finally paired up with Somebeachsomewhere, a sire that could take advantage of her close maternal inbreeding to Meadow Skipper. SBSW has a double Meadow Skipper dam and such sires predictably favour mares that are either linebred or inbred maternally to that sire line. Before she started racing I predicted in an earlier blog post that she would become the fastest female of all time. She certainly started out in the right direction as a two year old but struggled with health issues last year. Healthy now she is looking like this might be her year to achieve lasting greatness in the footsteps of her record setting mother.

Her dam is by Artiscape and is inbred to On The Road Again 3x2 maternally, an unusual but historically significant pattern that produced exceptional maternal influences like Helen Hanover and Margaret Parrish. Across the pedigree the X-factor highlights are Tar Heel and Bret Hanover, two individuals that show up consistently in X-factor position in great mares and for good reason as you can read in my book Queen Among Queens. Another interesting characteristic of this pedigree is the connection from Rainbow Blue to dam of the grandsire of Somwherovrtherainbow, Mach Three, where we see his maternal lines of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella repeated. This outmatch pattern is a common feature in the best offspring by SBSW.

Yagonnakissmeornot is from the Artsplace mare Artstopper. She was bought by George Teague as a yearling and like many of his bargain purchases at Harrisburg she raced well at 2 and 3. Her four year old season was not up to par but starting her five year old campaign she now shows four wins and two seconds in her first seven starts. With $368K made she is the best of six from her dam and the only one by The Panderosa. A look at her pedigree tells you why this match worked better than the others.

Her pedigree is inbred maternally to Abercrombie and Gene Abbe and she has X-factor doubles to Tar Heel and Bret Hanover - enough said. She had a very good two year old by Always A Virgin last year and another in training this year by the same sire. Look for both of these to be prominent at the races in 2014 based on their pedigrees which feature maternal crosses to both Big Towner and Albatross.

I'm sure there will be other mares in this series that will win subsequent legs and I suspect they too will show the pedigree patterns that make for great mares.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/0m09mveyy9cd38o/Summertime_Lea.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/a53sgec8y3rec8e/Yagonnakissmeornot.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/k9tuyosttk48cbs/Angels_Delight.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/cnyipt8r99vnjs6/Somwherovrarainbow.pdf

Sunday, March 16, 2014

2014 North American Stallion Finder

The Stallion Finder for sires standing in North America during 2014 is now available. The report tables list all sires, pacers and trotters, by name, State or Province standing, and by maternal lines together with a summary of preferred lines in the broodmares that fit the profiles of the sires.

Subscribers to PM Online can access a complimentary copy of the Stallion Finder in the PM Online library along with other Pedigree Matching publications including current stallion profiles. The Stallion Finder document can also be downloaded by submitting a Paypal payment of $25 through the Pedigree Matching website.

There are 313 sires listed, 182 pacers and 131 trotters, a considerable drop from the 374 in the 2013 Stallion Finder.

Sons of Western Hanover (35), Artsplace (16) and Cams Card Shark (13), lead the pacing sires while sires by Muscles Yankee (12). Yankee Glide (11), Valley Victory (8) and Garland Lobell (8) head the trotting lists.

Veteran pacing sires Abercrombie and Big Towner have just one representative left standing while current super sire Somebeachsomewhere has his first son in stud with So Surreal, a half brother to Well Said, that is standing in New York.

Speedy Crown and Super Bowl also have just one sire each in the trotting sire listings with Giant Hit in Delaware and American Winner in Pennsylvania respectively. An interesting addition to the trotting sire ranks is the first son of Revenue to stand stud in Break The Bank K who stands in Ohio. This is to my knowledge the first American bred son of a French sire to start a stud career in North America.


Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Stallions from Nowhere

It seems every year we see a previously unheralded sire spring to prominence with a special performer. It reinforces my feeling that any sire can have a top performer when given the right opportunity. Two years ago it was trotting sire Justice Hall and his Breeders Crown winning 3YO colt. Last year was the year of Believeinbruiser, a son of Mach Three, who produced the winner of the Ontario Sires Stakes Superfinal, a two year old colt called Bugger Bruiser.

The pedigree is eerily familiar to that of Captaintreacherous, also by a son of Mach Three in Somebeachsomewhere. In past posts we have discussed SBSW and seen that , with his double Meadow Skipper maternal line, he has shown his best with mares that also have double Meadow Skipper and especially when the mare is inbred maternally to that sire rather than linebred. Such was the case for Captaintreacherous whose dam is by Artsplace and with a second dam through Albatross.

Believeinbruiser is very similar maternally to SBSW, with a double Meadow Skipper line dam that features Cam Fella, so he shares the same profile and indeed that is confirmed by Bugger Bruiser as well as his second best to date Bad Girl Vegas and in his fourth best Bugger Max. All three are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are closely inbred to Meadow Skipper. Bugger Bruiser, like Captaintreacherous, is from an Artsplace dam with a second dam through Albatross. The third best is from a Cam Fella line mare which is another part of the SBSW profile.

So now breeders in Ontario have an affordable alternative to SBSW right in their back yard.

Here is the pedigree from PM Online

http://www.mediafire.com/view/lq89xcdx4lvfy01/Bugger%20Bruiser.pdf

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Welcome to Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners

With the startup of PM Online we enter a new phase in the development of Pedigree Matching.

While my interest in the influence of pedigree on breeding and racing success has primarily been on the standardbred breed, I have been watching the top performers of other performance breeds to see if the same principles apply in their pedigrees. I am convinced that they do. Here are some examples drawn from the past year.

Thoroughbred breeders are generally convinced that inbreeding of any kind is bad and as a consequence the pedigrees often show little of the kinds ot patterns that show up in top standardbreds. In that respect the situation is similar to the approach of the French trotter breeders. The net result is that the overall success rates in producing top performers is less than half that of standardbreds generally. Similarily when this approach does produce a special individual it is because of the extreme outcross nature of such matings, the much touted hybrid vigour, that can and does succeed spectacularly on relatively rare occasions. But not all top thoroughbred performers come from such matings by any means. Four of the top earning horses in North America are the following:

Will Take Charge by Unbridleds Song
Game On Dude by Awesome Again
Orb by Malibu Moon
Mucho Macho Man by Macho Uno

The basic approach to pedigree matching is to outcross on sire line and inbreed maternally. The sire lines in thoroughbreds are more numerous than in standardbreds but the majority of sires currently standing in North America descend from Bartletts Childers, the full brother to Flying Childers a sire that is responsible for the vast majority of the modern day standardbred stallions. This sire line splits at a sire called Phalaris 1913 into two sire lines that are commonly described as the Nearco and Native Dancer lines. Nearco's line is famous for the great Northern Dancer and his siring legacy while Mr Prospector is a sire from the Native Danver branch that is prominent, as is Northern Dancer, both as a sire of sires and as a strong maternal influence through his daughters.

Orb is by a Nearco line sire and from a Native Dancer line dam and thus considered an outcross on sire line since the common ancestor on sire line is several generations away. He is inbred maternally to Mr Prospector 3x4 and also inbred to the Nearco line maternally with Northern Dancer and Turn To, both grandsons of Nearco, across the pedigree maternally.

Will Take Charge is outcrossed on sire line in similar fashion but the other way around being by a Native Dancer line sire and from a Nearco line dam. He also is inbred maternally to Nearco through grandsons Nasrullah and Northern Dancer.

Game On Dude is actually linebred on sire line to Nearco with the sire line through Northern Dancer and the dam sire through Turn To. Maternally , however, he is inbred to both Nasrullah and to Raise A Native, son of Native Dancer.

Mucho Macho Man has over $7 million made lifetime and he is outcrossed on sire line being by yet another line descending from Bartletts Childers through Roughntumble. He is strongly inbred maternally to both Mr Prospector 4x4 and to Nasrullah 5x6.

As you can see all four have pedigrees typical of the best standardbreds and I will point out two others. Remember the Breeders Cup race a couple of years ago when the great mare Zenyatta took on the best male horses and came second by a head to Blame. Guess what. Blame is outcrossed on sire line through Turn To (Nearco) to Native Dancer and is inbred maternally to Northern Dancer 4x4 and Raise A Native 5x4,  And then there is the mighty Zenyatta. She shows yet another pattern familiar to standardbred breeders. She too is outcrossed on sire line by a grandson of Mr Prospector and from a mare through Turn To. Her maternal connections are a typical standardbred outcross pattern with her maternal lines through Hail To Reason (Turn To) and Hoist The Flag being duplicated in the maternal lines of her grandsire Machiavellian.

I'll add one more for the Quarter Horse breeders and that is the horse I posted about earlier, One Famous Glass, the quarter horse colt, by a first crop sire, plucked from a 1200 strong yearling sale for $10,000 based solely on a pedigree reminiscent of standardbred success. That colt has just been named Horse Of The Year in Canada for 2013. He is owned by my son Charles who created the original Pedigree Matching computer program.

Perhaps the quarter horse breeders, as well as the thoroughbred breeders, can learn from these examples that maternal inbreeding is not that bad after all.

Blame
Zenyatta
Game On Dude
Mucho Macho Man
Will Take Charge
Orb
One Famous Glass


Friday, December 20, 2013

PM Online

Just in time for Christmas - PM Online is indeed online.
 
The PM-Online service is offered on a subscription basis with a variety of payment and access options. You can choose the bargain priced Basic level that includes all of the functions of our previous PedigreeGuru web service, or you can choose a Guru level subscription for more advanced features, including all of your favourite Globetrotter program functions that allow you to add, edit and store information on your own horses as well as do complex searches and profiles for stallion performance and for yearling sales. An added feature for Guru level subscribers will be the EasyMatch function that provides stallion choices for your mares at the click of a button.

Visit PM-Online for a free two day trial and find out more about the worldwide Globetrotter database that now contains over 2.2 million horses including standardbreds and related breeds such as coldblood and French trotters, and Tennessee Walking horses.

If you are interested in thoroughbred pedigrees then you will want to try out Globerunner, a parallel service for pedigree research of thoroughbred and quarter horses, again with an international database approaching two million horses.

It is our hope that PM-Online will form the basis for a truly worldwide database supported directly by the various registries. To this end we are offering complimentary basic access to any registered member of any organization that directly supports the database with ongoing data updates or through commercial endorsement.

While other sites may provide similar information we are committed to providing the tools to make the information work for you in your search for a future champion performance horse. We encourage you to help us in that quest by sending us your suggestions for improvements.
As an incentive we are offering subscription credits for active database participation and also for referring this site to your friends. For every ten referrals that subscribe and identify you as the reference you will receive a one year membership extension worth $100 at the basic subscription level. For 50 referrals you can upgrade to Guru level for one year, a value of $400. As a Guru level subscriber you will be authorized to add/edit data and earn further credits to allow you to continue to use the site free at the Guru level.

Guru members can also choose a lifetime subscription that entitles them to become a PM Online partner with an interest in the future development and success of PM Online.

For more information on membership options, including our referral incentive program and PM-Online partner opportunities, you can contact me personally by calling:

902-628-5581 (Canada) or by email to norman@pedigreematching.com

You will also find us on Facebook shortly and on our Pedigree Matching website. The link to PM Online is also on the website at www.pedigreematching.com and will be active effective Saturday, Decenber 21st.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Forest City Sale

The last major sale of the year will be the Forest City sale in Ontario. The organizers decided to delay this sale to November to see if the situation would be more clear in Ontario by then. Im not sure that is the case and although the Canadian Open sale was up from its disaster last year, the future for breeders in Ontario is still far from clear.

A look at the pedigrees for this years sale shows that old stalwart Camluck still has a lock on the best pedigrees of the sale which does not say a lot for the breeders in Ontario and their sire selection. It always amazes me that breeders can make choices either in total ignorance of the facts or in total denial. This sale is full of yearlings with no chance and as a result there are fewer than 40 of the 300 plus yearlings that have a legitimate chance of success.

Attached are the profiles for the yearlings - you can judge for yourself.

http://www.mediafire.com/download/345xf9fvx9zhc3k/Forest_City_Trotting_Yearling_Profiles.pdf

http://www.mediafire.com/download/mjptrbi5mybbn2i/Forest_City_Pacing_Yearling_Profiles.pdf