Friday, August 10, 2012

Canadian Open Pacing Yearlings

Attached you will find the profiles for the pacing yearlings in the Canadian Open Sale.

As you can expect in an Open sale there is a variety of sires represented that you can put in Yes, Maybe and No groupings. The Yes group for this sale includes several new sires with potential to be successful based on their racing careers as we see in Artistic Fella, Major In Art, Mister Big and Shadow Play, It also would include the sires that to date have shown the ability to produce a special individual such as Mach Three, Badlands Hanover and Camluck. There are also yearlings by Rocknroll Hanover and If I Can Dream, the full brother to Western Terror to consider.

The Maybe sires are those that have had limited success to date as first crop sires or are ones that have done well but not lately. I would Include Astronomical, Blissfull Hall, His Mattjesty, Jeremes Jet, No Pan Intended, Santanna Blue Chip and Stonebridge Regal here.

The No sires are those that have underperformed as sires or that have little chance of producing something special. Armbro Deuce, Classic Card Shark, Daylon Frontier, Eagle Luck, Electric Stena, Lis Mara, Sir Luck and Whosurboy. This is not to say that they have no chance to be successful but if you are looking at one then it better be an outstanding individual to offset the risk. There is always another Warrawee Needy out there.

Looking at the first crop sires is always a challenge to figure out which way they will lean. The Stallion Finder tables will give you a ballpark to look in but usually there are three or four groups of mares that will fit each sire based on the maternal lines of the sire.

Artistic Fella falls into a large group that includes sires with Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper line combinations maternally. His maternal lines through Artsplace and No Nukes bring him close to such sires as Western Terror (Artsplace - On The Road Again) . The general profile is for Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Double Meadow Skipper line dams and for Meadow Skipper line dams with Adios line second dams. In the case of Western Terror this is exactly the order of priority with 11 of the top 16 fitting the first category, 4 in the second category and just one that fits the third profile factor. Clearly the percentages favour Non Meadow Skipper line dams although the very best by Western Terror, Western Silk, is from a double Meadow Skipper dam that is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella. You may want to take a close look at Marigold Bloom accordingly.

Major In Art combines Jate Lobell and Big Towner maternally and may well take after his sire Art Major whose maternal lines are Nihilator - Big Towner. The profile factors are for mares that are Meadow Skipper line with an Adios or Big Towner line 2nd or 3rd Dam, or dams with a 2nd or 3rd dam by Meadow Skipper, a son, or an Albatross line sire. Dams by Big Towner line sires are also a consideration. Interestingly while 12 of the top sixteen by Art Major are from Meadow Skipper line dams, four of the top five including the top two fit the other profile factors. Perhaps you should focus on the four yearlings in this sale that fit the minority factors.

Mister Big is Jate Lobell - Cam Fella maternally. He is unique in that respect but in general he fits a category of sires that will favour mares that offer combinations of Meadow Skipper lines featuring No Nukes and Cam Fella.

Shadow Wave will probaly be the most popular first crop sire in Ontario and deservedly so. His maternal lines of Matts Scooter  - Warm Breeze make him open particularily to mares that are non Meadow Skipper line and inbred to Meadow Skipper, especially through Albatross. You only need to look at World Champion Put On A Show for inspiration. She is by Rocknroll Hanover, like Shadow Play a grandson of Western Hanover, whose maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Abercrombie, the same Direct Scooter - Adios line combination as in Shadow Play. How about Kesons Silhouette or Hidden Expression ?

I will add the sire profiles to the Links page over the next few days for the other sires in the sale. Good luck with your choices.

1 comment:

  1. In the list under maybe's - did you mean Royal Mattjesty instead of his full brother His Mattjesty? They all start to run together after a while I'm sure. I sure hope the uncertain Ontario racing situation is settled by then, so the buyers have an idea what they will be racing for.