PM Online - Gurus

Wanted - Country and Regional Gurus

If you volunteer to be a Guru you can get free access to PM Online at the Guru level. Gurus serve an important role in keeping the databases current especially with respect to the top performers but there are other responsibilities.

Each Guru has a geographic area of responsibility. For some smaller countries, in terms of activity, we need just one, while in North America we need gurus in the key states and provinces where racing and breeding activity is greatest. We need Gurus for all breeds represented in the GlobeTrotter and GlobeRunner databases including our soon to be added Arabian database GlobeArab.

The main responsibilities of a Guru are as follows:

1. Update the performance records of the top performers in your area on an ongoing basis.
2. Add and edit stallion information for stallions and farms in your breeding jurisdiction, e.g. Pennsylvania, New South Wales, New Zealand, Finland, Atlantic Canada, etc.
3. Review and improve translation of the PM Online text.

There is also a role to play in recruiting subscribers, advertising and sponsors for which you can earn commissions.

If you are interested in becoming a Guru then email me at norman@pedigreematching.com before January 31st to see if there is a position still available.

PM Online - Proud supporter of Horses for Autism

 

 

 

PM Online to Support Autism - Special Needs program

Ready to Launch - Tuesday January 6th, 2015

Our old Pedigree Guru website was out of date and limited in scope. Today's users want to access websites using a variety of mobile devices and that has been our basic approach to structuring the website and the displays and reports that users can create. We have taken the extra steps necessary to incorporate other performance breeds as well and the data is split into two databases, GlobeTrotter for Standardbreds and related breeds and GlobeRunner for Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses. The website is currently accessible on a subscription basis and we hope eventually to make if freely available depending on the development of other sources of revenue such as from advertising.

Whether the website makes money will not be what determines its success.In fact it is our intention to return any profits directly back to the industry by supporting efforts in performance horse retirement or new vocations related to therapeutic activities for autistic and special needs youth.  We have such a program starting up on Prince Edward Island at the Handybear Hills Horse Sanctuary operated by Yogi Fell. A donation to the sanctuary will be made by PM Online at the launch set for 4.30pm Tuesday at the Red Shores Special Event Facility.

The original purpose of PM Online was to demonstrate to the various breed registries around the world that a common database for breeders, universally supported by them, and complete with the necessary analytical tools, can work to the advantage of all breeders and for the benefit of the breed in the long run. 

 I also hope, however,that you can join me in the battle against Autism and other special needs afflictions, as the grandfather of a very special boy, with very special parents, who are faced with such a challenge every day. Autism is the real elephant in the room that can no longer be ignored.


Autism is one of a group of serious developmental problems called autism spectrum disorders (ASD) that appear in early childhood -- usually before age 3. Some children show signs of autism in early infancy. Other children may develop normally for the first few months or years of life but then suddenly become withdrawn, become aggressive or lose language skills they've already acquired. Children with autism generally have problems in three crucial areas of development -- social interaction, language and behavior. But because autism symptoms vary greatly, two children with the same diagnosis may act quite differently and have strikingly different skills. In most cases, though, severe autism is typically marked by an inability to communicate or interact with other people normally. Communication with horses, though, can bring remarkable results.


The number of children diagnosed with autism is rising.  About 1 in 68 children has been identified with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) according to estimates from CDC's Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network.  While there is no cure for autism, intensive early treatment and therapy can make a big difference in the lives of many children with the disorder.


Your subscription to PM Online or advertising support will provide funds to facilities like the Handybear Hills Sanctuary and perhaps encourage others worldwide to develop their own Horses For Autism programs.

The Breeders Cup - The Pedigrees

The Breeders Cup - the self styled World Championships of thoroughbred racing - is now over. The dozen or so non US breds have gone home licking their wounds except for a lone colt from Japan who defied the norm with his pedigree and won a BC event against all odds.

There were 13 races in total with purses from $1 to $5 million in various combinations of track surface, distance, age and sex.

The Classic was the top race and was won by Bayern, a son of Offlee Wild and a descendent of Nearco, the line known for Northern Dancer, as were six of the other Cup winners. The other six events were won by descendents of Native Dancer, the line that is famous for Mr Prospector. That pretty much sums up what you need to win a Breeders Cup. A Nearco line sire bred to a Native Dancer line dam or vice versa. Both lines ultimately go back to the same origin in The Darley Arabian, one of three founding sires of the thoroughbred breed and also the origin of the majority of Standardbreds.

There were three exceptions to this general rule. One was the great three year old filly Untapable who solidified her claim for Horse Of The Year with a convincing win in her third consecutive Grade 1 win. She is linebred to the Nearco line and inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. Her dam is double linebred to Nearco and her 2nd dam is also linebred to Nearco.

In a sport where outcrossing to the point of having little or no common individuals in the first six generations this has to be somewhat of a revelation. In standardbred breeding her pedigree would be considered mildly inbred but for TB officiandos she must be quite a shock. Maternal inbreeding is a big part of Standardbred breeding as we see for the top 3 year old filly Shake It Cerry.

Is there a correlation between speed and maternal inbreeding ? Every year we see new "world" records set by standardbreds but the thoroughbreds have none. Perhaps it has something to do with the emphasis on speed versus endurance. The bottom line in both sports is not how fast you go but how much money you make. With the "classic" races in thoroughbreds going distances from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles it appears that breeding for distance is key and the prevailng wisdom is that outcrossing with a minimum of inbreeding is the only way to succeed.

North America is the only jurisdiction where pacing and trotting races are raced almost exclusively at a distance of one mile. That was the standard for inclusion in the first stud book - the ability to trot or pace a mile within a certain time, originally 2:30. In Europe and down under in Australia and New Zealand they are not so bound to tradition with racing conducted at different distances and with different starting methods.

In recent times we have seen exceptional performances by European standardbreds such as Sebastian K racing in North America and the success of the Swedish bred Revenue at stud in North America siring  the likes of multi millionaire Market Share, have opened the doors for greater opportunity to improve the breed. The thoroughbred industry has been international in scope for many years.

Getting back to the Breeders Cup races there was a Japanese bred called Karakontie who also parlayed his Nearco line breeding into a Breeders Cup win. He balanced out his pedigree by being inbred maternally to Native Dancer though and his dam and 2nd dam were traditionally outcrossed Nearco to Native Dancer and vice versa.

Perhaps both breeds can learn from each other with the T-breds embracing maternal inbreeding and the Standarbreds welcoming the outcross possibilities from other lands.

Rockin Good

It is nice to hear back from clients of Pedigree Matching. In any one season I may make several hundred broodmare breeding recommendations and here is one letter that I just received from a client in Michigan.

"Norman

In 2011, you wrote me an analysis regarding my broodmare, Do Me Good. One of the sires you recommended was Rockin Image, who stands at Victory Hill Farm in LaGrange, Indiana. I took your advice and the result was Rockin Good. She was sold at the 2013 Hoosier Classic Yearling Sale to Mark and Jered Finn of Newton, Illinois for $9,500.

On June 19th, she qualified at Springfield, Illinois, in 1:55.1 without urging; and was briefly the Season's Leader for that effort. During the course of the summer, Rockin Good won the Elimination Heat of three legs of the Indiana Sires Stakes. Finally, on October 10th at Hoosier Park, she won her first final victory by a nose in 1:53.2, her lifetime mark. Last Saturday, October 18th, at Hoosier Park, Rockin Good won  the Indiana 2 YO Filly Championship and Sires Stake in a time of 1:53.3. Her purses totaled $181,250 for the Finns.

Thanks for the (Rockin) good advice."

Ed

Ed Engle, Jr.

Engle Equine, LLC

 

 

Ed's success reminds me of one of my earliest clients from Michigan. Joan Ellafrits was the owner of one mare at the time and had read an article on Pedigree Matching in the USTA Hoofbeats magazine. She had bred her mare three times without success, basically using the closest and least expensive sire available to her - a strategy that is often used but also one with near zero success.

I recommended she breed to a Michigan sire called Super Star Ranger. The result was a colt she named Winsum Ranger. At three he was the winner of the Michigan State Championship and went on to earn over $596,000 with 43 career wins and a record of 1:56.2 taken at Woodbine.

Winsum Ranger was the first really good horse that Joan ever bred or owned. She did it again with a full brother now with over $122,000 and still racing. She also has a filly called Keyanna Rose from a full sister to Winsum Ranger. That filly is also a winner of the Michigan Championships, and was the best of her three year old year in Michigan with over $451,000 made. Keyanna Rose is by Keystone Nordic, another Pedigree Matching sire choice as is her brother Keyodee Star with $292,000 in the bank.

Joan, like many others who have experienced Pedigree Matching in action, has shown that you don’t have to be a big farm to produce top horses. Anyone can produce or buy a great horse if they do their homework or at least get someone to help them with it.

Harrisburg 2014 Yearling Profiles

Are you still looking for a yearling that could be the next World Champion? Chances are that Harrisburg is the place to look. The largest sale in terms of entries can be a daunting task to find the right horse but if you prepare yourself by creating a short list of what you want, whether it is by sex, gait, jurisdiction or sire it will save you a lot of time when it comes to inspecting your choices in the flesh.


Most successful trainers like to see as many of the horses they can prior to the sale by visiting the farms where they can see the yearlings run in the paddock rather than depend upon the videos. For most prospective owners this is next to impossible unless they are self employed and can take a month off. Since it ultimately is the owners responsibility to pay the bills, not just for buying but for training and staking your purchases over the next nine months till they hopefully qualify to race, a good way to ensure that your investment is a wise one is to do your own research into the pedigrees.


Stallion profiles are an invaluable aid to short listing the sale entries. Every stallion has a profile based on the mares he has been successful with. You can even use the profile of a similar stallion when trying to predict the fate of first crop stallions whose progeny have yet to race. This year there are just a handful of first crop sires including Manofmanymissions and Roll With Joe, both with sizeable consignments. Roll With Joe is a full brother to Bettors Delight and you know what the profile of Bettors Delight is don't you. You don't ? Well join the majority of buyers at any sale who blindly follow their trainers into making bad decisions.


By tabulating the top performers by a particular sire to show the sire lines in their pedigrees you will see a pattern emerge than can be summarized in one or two sentences that key on the presence or absence of certain sire lines e.g. Meadow Skipper, Adios, Volomite, Big Towner etc. For Bettors Delight the profile has two factors and reads:


1. Non Meadow Skipper line dams with a second or third dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire (11)


2. Most Happy Fella line dams with a second or third dam by an Adios line sire (5)


A quick scan of the top 16 shows that 15 of them have an Albatross line and 15 have an Adios line through Abercrombie (9), Bret Hanover (5) and Adios Vic (1)


If you go through the 36 Roll With Joe yearlings and eliminate on the basis of not having the requisite Meadow Skipper and Adios lines you cut the list to 17. It is shocking, to me at least, to note that the number of yearlings with Meadow Skipper line dams is 25 or 70%, while the percentage of the top 16 performers by Bettors Delight with Meadow Skipper line dams is the very opposite at 30% - now somebody is not doing their homework when it comes to selecting a stallion. And if you think the consignors of the 45 yearlings by Bettors Delight have done any better, with a profile that has not changed since his first crop hit the tracks in 2003, then think again because the number is slightly worse at 71% Meadow Skipper line dams.


Here are the profiles for the Trotting and pacing yearlings in Harrisburg. Now do your homework and put the percentages in your favor. The pedigrees are all in the PM Online database and if you sign up at the Guru level prior to the Harrisburg sale you can get your first year subscription at half price - that's a saving of $100 and you get my sale reports for Harrisburg for half price too and access to the PM Online library where the all important Stallion Profiles are kept. E-mail me to obtain these special offers with the subject "Harrisburg Offers".

Lexington Sale Profile

The Lexington sale is set for the first week in October with a reduced number of yearlings from previous years, about 100 less than two years ago, and this year the sale includes a number of Indiana breds as the Kentucky breeding industry, as well as the industry as a whole, experiences a continued drop in yearling registrations. This year the total has dropped to below 8,000 foals in the North American crop of 2013 and next year will see another big drop with the damaging effects of the Ontario government debacle hitting home.






This year will see a big increase in Ontario breds at Lexington with the first crops of Big Jim, Vintage Master and Manofmanymissions well represented in addition to the hot sire of the year Sportswriter. These yearlings would mostly have sold in Ontario in previous years but many breeders have opted to try their luck in US sales at both Lexington and Harrisburg.






Also among the first crop trotting sires is a small group of yearlings by Broad Bahn including a nice pedigreed filly called Trendy Broad that will be worth looking over. On the pacing side Roll With Joe will debut his first yearlings and he will have a hard time filling the boots of his full brother Bettors Delight based on the mares he had to work with. Bettors Delight stood in Ontario in 2012 and he has a large group of Ontario eligibles on the Lexington list and another even bigger group in Harrisburg. A lot of these were foaled in the United States as breeders still had confidence in his ability to produce top shelf racehorses despite being evicted from New York to make way for his upstart brother.






Lexington Trotter Profile


Lexington Pacer Profile






For those of you not familiar with the Sale Profile format the numbers you see in the chart are cross statistics. The first pair under the 1st Dam Sire column shows the number of times that cross has been tried in terms of foals of racing age, then the percentage success rate in producing $100K winners. For instance The Yank by Always A Virgin shows 12 0 meaning 12 crosses of Always A Virgin to mares by Jennas Beach Boy and 0 % top winners. The second pair under the 2nd Dam Sire No Nukes is the cross of Jennas Beach Boy to No Nukes and it shows 100 crosses with a success rate of 22%. Generally a 15% success rate is considered acceptable.


To the right of the sire line columns, which by the way are colour coded to identify which sire lines are in the pedigree of the mare, you will see several columns headed by a letter A,H,K,M or O. These relate to the presence of special mares in the back pedigree and a 1 under any column identifies the dam of the yearling as having that mare doubled up in the dam's pedigree. For a full explanation of the significance of maternal influences you can download my book Queen Among Queens from the PM Online library.






For those of you needing help in short listing the best yearlings to look at in Lexington and Harrisburg I can prepare lists based on any criteria such as sex, gait, jurisdiction, or sire along with my ratings. They won't necessarily guarantee you a world champion but they will prevent you from making a costly mistake in buying the wrong yearling. Great race horses like Somebeachsomewhere, Bettors Delight, Lis Mara, Donato Hanover, and many more have been included in previous sale lists for Harrisburg and Lexington. Email me for further information at norman@pedigreematching.com

Ohio Jug Sale

Little Brown Jug Week starts on Monday 15th and traditionally there has been a small yearling sale to kick off the festivities. This year the sale has increased dramatically in numbers as the benefits of OHIO slots boosts the interest in Ohio breds - the reverse of what has occurred in Ontario and ironically the Ohio experience is based on the now defunct Ontario Slots at Racetracks program.

This sale has never been of much significance serving primarily as an opportunity to get horsemen involved in Jug Week in advance of the big race on the Thursday. There still is not a lot of significance in this sale either and if you take out the 60 head by first crop sire Big Bad John, and the 25 by Ohio's current hot pacing sire Feelin Friskie there is really not a lot of value in the pacing consignment.

The trotters are even more forgettable unless again you are interested in the current top trotting stallion Chip Chip Hooray with 25 yearlings and a new stallion Triumphant Caviar with 24. There is also a handful by Pilgrims Taj who left Ontario after one crop and now has 7 on hand here. I believe he is now in Finland and based on his Ontario racing crop that is probably a blessing, and not necessarily for the Finns.

Big Bad John is by Western Hanover and joins 35 others currently at stud by that sire. His maternal side of Artsplace - Big Towner is not shared by any of them and indeed the only same sire maternally is Mr Saratoga by Million Dollar Cam with a few racing in Ontario. There are other sires that we can use however to construct a profile  including Dragon Again (Abercrombie - Towners Big Guy), Memphis Flash (Big Towner - Abercrombie) and Allamerican Merlin (Big Towner - Abercrombie). Based on the common elements in the dams of their top performers to date here is what I see.

1. Non Meadow Skipper line broodmares that are inbred to the Meadow Skipper line through sons, the Albatross line and the No Nukes line. (43%)
2. Linebred Meadow Skipper mares with an Albatross line 2nd or 3rd dam (35%)
3. Cam Fella line dams with an Adios/Abercrombie line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a dam through Adios (18%)
4. Mares with maternal combinations of Abercrombie and Big Towner (4%)

Big Towner maternally, although not essential, would be considered an asset.

The percentages are the collective results of the top 16 offspring of the comparable sires so give this some priority in your selections. Having said that I must admit there is one colt that I really like that falls under the #4 profile factor. He is called Big Cool John and from a mare by Real Artist, a sire by Artsplace from a Big Towner mare.

As noted the trotters are an indifferent bunch mostly from dams with low percentage crosses. There are always a few gems to sift for like a full sister to a winner of $470K that is however an 11th foal and an interesting Pilgrims Taj called Taj For All.