PM Online to Support Autism - Special Needs program

Ready to Launch - Tuesday January 6th, 2015

Our old Pedigree Guru website was out of date and limited in scope. Today's users want to access websites using a variety of mobile devices and that has been our basic approach to structuring the website and the displays and reports that users can create. We have taken the extra steps necessary to incorporate other performance breeds as well and the data is split into two databases, GlobeTrotter for Standardbreds and related breeds and GlobeRunner for Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses. The website is currently accessible on a subscription basis and we hope eventually to make if freely available depending on the development of other sources of revenue such as from advertising.

Whether the website makes money will not be what determines its success.In fact it is our intention to return any profits directly back to the industry by supporting efforts in performance horse retirement or new vocations related to therapeutic activities for autistic and special needs youth.  We have such a program starting up on Prince Edward Island at the Handybear Hills Horse Sanctuary operated by Yogi Fell. A donation to the sanctuary will be made by PM Online at the launch set for 4.30pm Tuesday at the Red Shores Special Event Facility.

The original purpose of PM Online was to demonstrate to the various breed registries around the world that a common database for breeders, universally supported by them, and complete with the necessary analytical tools, can work to the advantage of all breeders and for the benefit of the breed in the long run. 

 I also hope, however,that you can join me in the battle against Autism and other special needs afflictions, as the grandfather of a very special boy, with very special parents, who are faced with such a challenge every day. Autism is the real elephant in the room that can no longer be ignored.


Autism is one of a group of serious developmental problems called autism spectrum disorders (ASD) that appear in early childhood -- usually before age 3. Some children show signs of autism in early infancy. Other children may develop normally for the first few months or years of life but then suddenly become withdrawn, become aggressive or lose language skills they've already acquired. Children with autism generally have problems in three crucial areas of development -- social interaction, language and behavior. But because autism symptoms vary greatly, two children with the same diagnosis may act quite differently and have strikingly different skills. In most cases, though, severe autism is typically marked by an inability to communicate or interact with other people normally. Communication with horses, though, can bring remarkable results.


The number of children diagnosed with autism is rising.  About 1 in 68 children has been identified with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) according to estimates from CDC's Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network.  While there is no cure for autism, intensive early treatment and therapy can make a big difference in the lives of many children with the disorder.


Your subscription to PM Online or advertising support will provide funds to facilities like the Handybear Hills Sanctuary and perhaps encourage others worldwide to develop their own Horses For Autism programs.

The Breeders Cup - The Pedigrees

The Breeders Cup - the self styled World Championships of thoroughbred racing - is now over. The dozen or so non US breds have gone home licking their wounds except for a lone colt from Japan who defied the norm with his pedigree and won a BC event against all odds.

There were 13 races in total with purses from $1 to $5 million in various combinations of track surface, distance, age and sex.

The Classic was the top race and was won by Bayern, a son of Offlee Wild and a descendent of Nearco, the line known for Northern Dancer, as were six of the other Cup winners. The other six events were won by descendents of Native Dancer, the line that is famous for Mr Prospector. That pretty much sums up what you need to win a Breeders Cup. A Nearco line sire bred to a Native Dancer line dam or vice versa. Both lines ultimately go back to the same origin in The Darley Arabian, one of three founding sires of the thoroughbred breed and also the origin of the majority of Standardbreds.

There were three exceptions to this general rule. One was the great three year old filly Untapable who solidified her claim for Horse Of The Year with a convincing win in her third consecutive Grade 1 win. She is linebred to the Nearco line and inbred maternally to Northern Dancer. Her dam is double linebred to Nearco and her 2nd dam is also linebred to Nearco.

In a sport where outcrossing to the point of having little or no common individuals in the first six generations this has to be somewhat of a revelation. In standardbred breeding her pedigree would be considered mildly inbred but for TB officiandos she must be quite a shock. Maternal inbreeding is a big part of Standardbred breeding as we see for the top 3 year old filly Shake It Cerry.

Is there a correlation between speed and maternal inbreeding ? Every year we see new "world" records set by standardbreds but the thoroughbreds have none. Perhaps it has something to do with the emphasis on speed versus endurance. The bottom line in both sports is not how fast you go but how much money you make. With the "classic" races in thoroughbreds going distances from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles it appears that breeding for distance is key and the prevailng wisdom is that outcrossing with a minimum of inbreeding is the only way to succeed.

North America is the only jurisdiction where pacing and trotting races are raced almost exclusively at a distance of one mile. That was the standard for inclusion in the first stud book - the ability to trot or pace a mile within a certain time, originally 2:30. In Europe and down under in Australia and New Zealand they are not so bound to tradition with racing conducted at different distances and with different starting methods.

In recent times we have seen exceptional performances by European standardbreds such as Sebastian K racing in North America and the success of the Swedish bred Revenue at stud in North America siring  the likes of multi millionaire Market Share, have opened the doors for greater opportunity to improve the breed. The thoroughbred industry has been international in scope for many years.

Getting back to the Breeders Cup races there was a Japanese bred called Karakontie who also parlayed his Nearco line breeding into a Breeders Cup win. He balanced out his pedigree by being inbred maternally to Native Dancer though and his dam and 2nd dam were traditionally outcrossed Nearco to Native Dancer and vice versa.

Perhaps both breeds can learn from each other with the T-breds embracing maternal inbreeding and the Standarbreds welcoming the outcross possibilities from other lands.

Rockin Good

It is nice to hear back from clients of Pedigree Matching. In any one season I may make several hundred broodmare breeding recommendations and here is one letter that I just received from a client in Michigan.

"Norman

In 2011, you wrote me an analysis regarding my broodmare, Do Me Good. One of the sires you recommended was Rockin Image, who stands at Victory Hill Farm in LaGrange, Indiana. I took your advice and the result was Rockin Good. She was sold at the 2013 Hoosier Classic Yearling Sale to Mark and Jered Finn of Newton, Illinois for $9,500.

On June 19th, she qualified at Springfield, Illinois, in 1:55.1 without urging; and was briefly the Season's Leader for that effort. During the course of the summer, Rockin Good won the Elimination Heat of three legs of the Indiana Sires Stakes. Finally, on October 10th at Hoosier Park, she won her first final victory by a nose in 1:53.2, her lifetime mark. Last Saturday, October 18th, at Hoosier Park, Rockin Good won  the Indiana 2 YO Filly Championship and Sires Stake in a time of 1:53.3. Her purses totaled $181,250 for the Finns.

Thanks for the (Rockin) good advice."

Ed

Ed Engle, Jr.

Engle Equine, LLC

 

 

Ed's success reminds me of one of my earliest clients from Michigan. Joan Ellafrits was the owner of one mare at the time and had read an article on Pedigree Matching in the USTA Hoofbeats magazine. She had bred her mare three times without success, basically using the closest and least expensive sire available to her - a strategy that is often used but also one with near zero success.

I recommended she breed to a Michigan sire called Super Star Ranger. The result was a colt she named Winsum Ranger. At three he was the winner of the Michigan State Championship and went on to earn over $596,000 with 43 career wins and a record of 1:56.2 taken at Woodbine.

Winsum Ranger was the first really good horse that Joan ever bred or owned. She did it again with a full brother now with over $122,000 and still racing. She also has a filly called Keyanna Rose from a full sister to Winsum Ranger. That filly is also a winner of the Michigan Championships, and was the best of her three year old year in Michigan with over $451,000 made. Keyanna Rose is by Keystone Nordic, another Pedigree Matching sire choice as is her brother Keyodee Star with $292,000 in the bank.

Joan, like many others who have experienced Pedigree Matching in action, has shown that you don’t have to be a big farm to produce top horses. Anyone can produce or buy a great horse if they do their homework or at least get someone to help them with it.

Harrisburg 2014 Yearling Profiles

Are you still looking for a yearling that could be the next World Champion? Chances are that Harrisburg is the place to look. The largest sale in terms of entries can be a daunting task to find the right horse but if you prepare yourself by creating a short list of what you want, whether it is by sex, gait, jurisdiction or sire it will save you a lot of time when it comes to inspecting your choices in the flesh.


Most successful trainers like to see as many of the horses they can prior to the sale by visiting the farms where they can see the yearlings run in the paddock rather than depend upon the videos. For most prospective owners this is next to impossible unless they are self employed and can take a month off. Since it ultimately is the owners responsibility to pay the bills, not just for buying but for training and staking your purchases over the next nine months till they hopefully qualify to race, a good way to ensure that your investment is a wise one is to do your own research into the pedigrees.


Stallion profiles are an invaluable aid to short listing the sale entries. Every stallion has a profile based on the mares he has been successful with. You can even use the profile of a similar stallion when trying to predict the fate of first crop stallions whose progeny have yet to race. This year there are just a handful of first crop sires including Manofmanymissions and Roll With Joe, both with sizeable consignments. Roll With Joe is a full brother to Bettors Delight and you know what the profile of Bettors Delight is don't you. You don't ? Well join the majority of buyers at any sale who blindly follow their trainers into making bad decisions.


By tabulating the top performers by a particular sire to show the sire lines in their pedigrees you will see a pattern emerge than can be summarized in one or two sentences that key on the presence or absence of certain sire lines e.g. Meadow Skipper, Adios, Volomite, Big Towner etc. For Bettors Delight the profile has two factors and reads:


1. Non Meadow Skipper line dams with a second or third dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire (11)


2. Most Happy Fella line dams with a second or third dam by an Adios line sire (5)


A quick scan of the top 16 shows that 15 of them have an Albatross line and 15 have an Adios line through Abercrombie (9), Bret Hanover (5) and Adios Vic (1)


If you go through the 36 Roll With Joe yearlings and eliminate on the basis of not having the requisite Meadow Skipper and Adios lines you cut the list to 17. It is shocking, to me at least, to note that the number of yearlings with Meadow Skipper line dams is 25 or 70%, while the percentage of the top 16 performers by Bettors Delight with Meadow Skipper line dams is the very opposite at 30% - now somebody is not doing their homework when it comes to selecting a stallion. And if you think the consignors of the 45 yearlings by Bettors Delight have done any better, with a profile that has not changed since his first crop hit the tracks in 2003, then think again because the number is slightly worse at 71% Meadow Skipper line dams.


Here are the profiles for the Trotting and pacing yearlings in Harrisburg. Now do your homework and put the percentages in your favor. The pedigrees are all in the PM Online database and if you sign up at the Guru level prior to the Harrisburg sale you can get your first year subscription at half price - that's a saving of $100 and you get my sale reports for Harrisburg for half price too and access to the PM Online library where the all important Stallion Profiles are kept. E-mail me to obtain these special offers with the subject "Harrisburg Offers".

Lexington Sale Profile

The Lexington sale is set for the first week in October with a reduced number of yearlings from previous years, about 100 less than two years ago, and this year the sale includes a number of Indiana breds as the Kentucky breeding industry, as well as the industry as a whole, experiences a continued drop in yearling registrations. This year the total has dropped to below 8,000 foals in the North American crop of 2013 and next year will see another big drop with the damaging effects of the Ontario government debacle hitting home.






This year will see a big increase in Ontario breds at Lexington with the first crops of Big Jim, Vintage Master and Manofmanymissions well represented in addition to the hot sire of the year Sportswriter. These yearlings would mostly have sold in Ontario in previous years but many breeders have opted to try their luck in US sales at both Lexington and Harrisburg.






Also among the first crop trotting sires is a small group of yearlings by Broad Bahn including a nice pedigreed filly called Trendy Broad that will be worth looking over. On the pacing side Roll With Joe will debut his first yearlings and he will have a hard time filling the boots of his full brother Bettors Delight based on the mares he had to work with. Bettors Delight stood in Ontario in 2012 and he has a large group of Ontario eligibles on the Lexington list and another even bigger group in Harrisburg. A lot of these were foaled in the United States as breeders still had confidence in his ability to produce top shelf racehorses despite being evicted from New York to make way for his upstart brother.






Lexington Trotter Profile


Lexington Pacer Profile






For those of you not familiar with the Sale Profile format the numbers you see in the chart are cross statistics. The first pair under the 1st Dam Sire column shows the number of times that cross has been tried in terms of foals of racing age, then the percentage success rate in producing $100K winners. For instance The Yank by Always A Virgin shows 12 0 meaning 12 crosses of Always A Virgin to mares by Jennas Beach Boy and 0 % top winners. The second pair under the 2nd Dam Sire No Nukes is the cross of Jennas Beach Boy to No Nukes and it shows 100 crosses with a success rate of 22%. Generally a 15% success rate is considered acceptable.


To the right of the sire line columns, which by the way are colour coded to identify which sire lines are in the pedigree of the mare, you will see several columns headed by a letter A,H,K,M or O. These relate to the presence of special mares in the back pedigree and a 1 under any column identifies the dam of the yearling as having that mare doubled up in the dam's pedigree. For a full explanation of the significance of maternal influences you can download my book Queen Among Queens from the PM Online library.






For those of you needing help in short listing the best yearlings to look at in Lexington and Harrisburg I can prepare lists based on any criteria such as sex, gait, jurisdiction, or sire along with my ratings. They won't necessarily guarantee you a world champion but they will prevent you from making a costly mistake in buying the wrong yearling. Great race horses like Somebeachsomewhere, Bettors Delight, Lis Mara, Donato Hanover, and many more have been included in previous sale lists for Harrisburg and Lexington. Email me for further information at norman@pedigreematching.com

Ohio Jug Sale

Little Brown Jug Week starts on Monday 15th and traditionally there has been a small yearling sale to kick off the festivities. This year the sale has increased dramatically in numbers as the benefits of OHIO slots boosts the interest in Ohio breds - the reverse of what has occurred in Ontario and ironically the Ohio experience is based on the now defunct Ontario Slots at Racetracks program.

This sale has never been of much significance serving primarily as an opportunity to get horsemen involved in Jug Week in advance of the big race on the Thursday. There still is not a lot of significance in this sale either and if you take out the 60 head by first crop sire Big Bad John, and the 25 by Ohio's current hot pacing sire Feelin Friskie there is really not a lot of value in the pacing consignment.

The trotters are even more forgettable unless again you are interested in the current top trotting stallion Chip Chip Hooray with 25 yearlings and a new stallion Triumphant Caviar with 24. There is also a handful by Pilgrims Taj who left Ontario after one crop and now has 7 on hand here. I believe he is now in Finland and based on his Ontario racing crop that is probably a blessing, and not necessarily for the Finns.

Big Bad John is by Western Hanover and joins 35 others currently at stud by that sire. His maternal side of Artsplace - Big Towner is not shared by any of them and indeed the only same sire maternally is Mr Saratoga by Million Dollar Cam with a few racing in Ontario. There are other sires that we can use however to construct a profile  including Dragon Again (Abercrombie - Towners Big Guy), Memphis Flash (Big Towner - Abercrombie) and Allamerican Merlin (Big Towner - Abercrombie). Based on the common elements in the dams of their top performers to date here is what I see.

1. Non Meadow Skipper line broodmares that are inbred to the Meadow Skipper line through sons, the Albatross line and the No Nukes line. (43%)
2. Linebred Meadow Skipper mares with an Albatross line 2nd or 3rd dam (35%)
3. Cam Fella line dams with an Adios/Abercrombie line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a dam through Adios (18%)
4. Mares with maternal combinations of Abercrombie and Big Towner (4%)

Big Towner maternally, although not essential, would be considered an asset.

The percentages are the collective results of the top 16 offspring of the comparable sires so give this some priority in your selections. Having said that I must admit there is one colt that I really like that falls under the #4 profile factor. He is called Big Cool John and from a mare by Real Artist, a sire by Artsplace from a Big Towner mare.

As noted the trotters are an indifferent bunch mostly from dams with low percentage crosses. There are always a few gems to sift for like a full sister to a winner of $470K that is however an 11th foal and an interesting Pilgrims Taj called Taj For All.

Canadian Open 2014

This year's version of the Canadian Open, to be held on Sunday 14th, lists just 164 yearlings, a far cry from the previous sales that often topped 300 entries. That was before the Liberal government gutted the breeding industry and the effects of that move are now seen here. Not only is the number down but most of the good mares have obviously been bred to other jusrisdictions so the quality has taken a big drop too. Old standby sires like Camluck, Mach Three and Angus Hall are still there but they are now serving a depleted and weaker mare population. Not that there is any great competition with just a handful of new sires like Big Jim and Manofmanymissions to share the leftovers with.

The pacing yearlings will no doubt be highlighted by the ones in the second crop of Sportswriter who has been the dominant sire of two year olds in the Ontario Sires Stakes. New sires Big Jim and Vintage Master will also get some attention.

Sportswriter has just five in this sale. His sire profile is quickly being established and shows a definite preference for No Nukes line dams as well as those with Big Towner maternally. Not surprising since his maternal lines are Jate Lobell - Big Towner. That group makes up 10 of the top 16. There are five by Cam Fella line dams all of which are linebred to Meadow Skipper. The best one, though, is from a mare by On The Road Again although he too traces through to Most Happy Fella and the dam is the dam of the great Rainbow Blue so is an exception in more ways than one.

Big Jim has 7 entries and you can get a pretty good idea of what to expect there by looking at the best by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin, both sires that share similar maternal lines to Big Jim featuring Big Towner and Albatross. Albatross is a big factor in the mares with 22 of the best 32 by Allamerican Native and Always A Virgin having that sire or one of his sons maternally and five of the others showing Big Towner. Overall the best are split 50-50 between Most Happy Fella line dams and non-Meadow Skipper line dams with each of them showing Big Towner in 5 of their top 16.

Vintage Master has five yearlings. He is a virtual copy of his sire Western Ideal (maternal lines of Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper) being a No Nukes line sire with Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Most Happy Fella (Meadow Skipper) maternally so you can expect him to like the same kind of mares as his sire. They are in a general category of sires that prefer non Meadow Skipper line dams with the exception of Meadow Skipper linebred dams. In Western Ideal's case the ratio is 12 to 4 for his top 16.

The big news for the trotters will be the first crop of Manofmanymissions, the fast but quirky son of Yankee Glide, who has since left to stand in Ohio. With 13 yearlings his is the second largest group, next to Angus Hall with 14 entries. He has a unique maternal line of Garland Lobell - Super Bowl and there is no active sire with foals racing with that combination. Cantab Hall has a Garland Lobell dam with a Super Bowl son third dam so may offer some clues but the key will clearly be Super Bowl. Sires with Super Bowl or Bonefish second dams invariably do best with Super Bowl line dams or those with second or third dams through Super Bowl. Similar sires include Hard Rock N Roll and Keystone Savage with most of their best ones keying on Super Bowl or Bonefish maternally in addition to Noble Victory lines. The Noble Victory line brings Angus Hall and Balanced Image mares into play especially those with Super Bowl.

I will post the sire profiles for the sires in the Canadian Open in the PM Online library. Tomorrow we will look at the OHIO Jug sale also taking place Monday 15th.

2014 Yearling Sales

The yearling sale season is just weeks away in North America but there is a major French auction in Deauville starting this week with 500 yearlings on offer. Among them are yearlings by stallion star Ready Cash as well as old favourites like Coktail Jet and Love You.

The Sale Profile for the Deauville sale is available via this link. The North American maternal traces don't apply here although some of the French sires do have such connections maternally. The cross percentage statistics are typically about half what you see in North America so you wont see many at 15% or higher.

Later this week I will post the Canadian Open and Ohio Jug profiles and in following weeks the sale profiles for the Morrisville, Lexington, Forest City and Harrisburg venues. There are over 2600 yearlings on offer in these NA sales, almost 1/3 of the total foals of 2013.

First crop sires are always a challenge but look for projected profiles on my blog in the next week for sires like Big Jim, Big Bad John, Broad Bahn, Manofmanymissions and others with their first foals on offer this year. We will also take a look at what happened in the first crops from last year for Lucky Chucky, Muscle Massive, Sportswriter and Rock N Roll Heaven.

Sometime in the next few days the sales lists will be available on PM Online for Guru level subscribers along with an editable sale report that you can use to identify your choices and ratings.

Note:

The colour codes for the sire lines in French Pedigrees are as follows:

Dark Blue - Stars Pride line
Red - Peter Scott line
Green - Volomite line
Brown - Axworthy line
Light Blue - Fuschia line
Black - Other French lines.

In an earlier blog on the Sportswriter yearlings here is what I wrote.

"Sportswriter is the fastest son of Artsplace and was well received in Ontario. His maternal lines of Jate Lobell and Big Towner make him similar to Major In Art, another Ontario sire whose first crop is racing with limited success to date. In fact the profile for Major In Art is all over the map so far and that is not a sign of a consistent and successful sire. Sires with Jate Lobell dams generally have not been anything special to date with the possible exception of Yankee Cruiser who has an Albatross line second dam to help him out. That is not the case with Sportswriter who will have to depend on the diminishing presence of Big Towner coupled with No Nukes line in the dams to make his mark. A local sire in PEI, Articulator, has done just that although his maternal line is the flip side of Sportswriter being Big Towner - No Nukes. His best to date have either Big Towner and/or No Nukes maternally and that is what I would look for at least in this first crop."

I was somewhat sceptical of his potential as a sire but it appears that he has got a lot of the right mares in his first crop, mares that are predominately No Nukes line as I also expected.

His top three to date including his best in Australia, Sporty Spook, currently number one overall, have strong No Nukes connections being from dams by Village Jasper (Jate Lobell), The Panderosa (Western Hanover) and Western Terror (Western Hanover). His top 10 also includes a couple from mares by Safely Kept (Jate Lobell), two from Western Hanover mares, and one with a double connection maternally through Jate Lobell and Big Towner called Windsong Lightning who bears watching.

There are many more lined up to make their mark in this Fridays Ontario Sires Gold events including fillies like Northern Starlet (Western Ideal dam), Mesmerize Bluechip (Western Hanover), Twin B Honour (The Panderosa), Southwind Mischief (Western Hanover), Code One Hanover (Western Ideal), Business As Usual (Western Ideal), Shesastarreporter (Rambaran).

The Grassroots events this evening (Thursday) should be no less telling if No Nukes line dams are the key to Sportswriter success with the likes of Birdie (Rocknroll Hanover), Southwind Luna (The Panderosa), Art Of The Deal (Western Ideal), Ryans Rockette (Western Hanover), Jinglewriter (Rustler Hanover), and there are several others in tonight that have maternal doubles to Jate Lobell, Western Hanover and Big Towner other than throught the broodmare sire.

To have this many ready this early is a possible sign of great things to come and after the dust settles on Friday evening we will have a pretty good idea of what the future holds and what to look for in the stallion profile of Sportswriter.

Mcwicked

Congratulations to my longtime customer Ed James and his 3 year old colt McWicked winner of the $500,000 Hempt final. Ed paid $210000 for him at the Harrisburg sale on my recommendation. He now has a world record holder and the fastest three year old in North America. This year I think I will finally go to the Little Brown Jug to see him crowned as the fastest three year old of all time on a half mile track. Then to Lexington to beat the all time record for any size track.

Every year the Harrisburg mixed sale has a number of two year olds for sale. Most are ignored because the buyers assume they are being dumped for good reason. That is not necessarily so. Ed James has had great success with someone elses rejects and Mcwicked is just the latest example. In past years he has plucked, at my recommendation, horses like Hyperion Hanover a winner of over $1.2 million and Indiana Hall with over $830K among others.

The secret is to find a pedigree matched horse that shows something special, like a fast quarter. It is not difficult to narrow down the possibilities and in fact Mcwicked was one of only three in the sale last year that met the criteria and by far the best on paper.

His pedigree is great from a pedigree matching standpoint. He is outcrossed on sire line Adios to Meadow Skipper and he is inbred maternally to Albatross and Most Happy Fella. He is also outcrossed through to the maternal lines of grandsire Falcon Seelster through Volomite and Adios.

As a two year old he showed a last quarter in 27 in winning a PA Sire Stake event. That kind of speed is unusual in young horses and made him a standout on that alone.

PM Online Update

It has been a long process but we are finally getting there. Just a few wrinkles to iron out and we can make an official launch of PM Online shortly. Some of you have already tried out the site and perhaps experienced problems but hopefully all that is behind us now. This has been Phase One, replicating the Globetrotter program online to be accessed by any browser and device currently available. Sounds easy but in fact has been a complicated process that has taken almost a year longer than the anticipated six months we planned on.

The next phase of our development will be to add new functions such as the stallion profiles, performance ratings, sale reports etc., and anything else you might suggest to make the site as usefull to you as possible. This will be an ongoing process and your feedback is important to us to achieve our goal of developing an international pedigree database with all of the tools you need to help you make correct decisions on what to breed and what to buy.

Some of you are still using the old desk based Globetrotter program and have been asking about updates to the database. While it is my hope that you will eventually switch over to PM Online for its ease of use and greater range of options and more timely and accurate data, I am prepared to provide an annual database update for the time being. Instructions on accessing the current database can be found here.

Instructions on Updating Globetrotter Database

If you are interested in the future development of PM Online as an investment opportunity or as a vehicle for advertising and promotion of your own products and services I would be interested in hearing from you. Quite frankly I'm not sure how much longer I have, at my age, to devote to this "project" so I am interested in forming a limited partnership to ensure the future of PM Online is in good hands. You can call me for details at 901-628-5581 or email to norman@pedigreematching.com

Something For Nothing

The wonderful thing about breeding horses is that every now and then there appears something from nothing. There is a gelding in Delaware that is undefeated in 11 starts at 2 and 3. His name is I Like My Boss. He is by a modest son of Donerail called Don Boss Vita and from a mare that has absolutely nothing to offer in her maternal family.

The dam, Wild One, made all of $17,345 and there are few individuals in the next generations to beat that accomplishment yet she has produced one of the best in Delaware history.

Don Boss Vita is  Florida Pro - Super Bowl maternally and Wild One is by Cr Commando. a Delaware sire that is by a son of Super Bowl from a daughter of Florida Pro. Now some would say that is a coincidence but not if you are a follower of pedigree matching. That direct compatibility between the dam of the sire and the sire of the dam is exactly what pedigree matching is all about.

Pedigree Matching can trump pedigree and every mare and every sire can produce a very good performer if they are matched up correctly. I Like My Boss is proof of the pudding.

Australia and New Zealand Update

The ANZ data has been updated on PM Online to reflect current performance and new named additions including yearlings.

The two year olds are led by a pair of Art Majors. The top pacing colt is Follow The Stars $251K and top filly is Queen Of Pop $160K. Both were bred in Victoria. Top two year old trotter is Monbet by French sire Love You who extends his global dominance as a sire to yet another country.

The three year olds are led by Bling It On by American Ideal (558K Aud) and Venus Serena by Mach Three (664K Nzd). Im Stately by Majestic Son leads the trotters with 183K.

As in Europe the Anzacs don't race much at 2 and 3 and the purses are not anywhere near those in North America for young horses. They do, however, continue to supply quality aged horses to the US market and could well see a resurgence of that trade in the next few years. North American yearling production continues to slide and the larger farms are getting fewer in number. NA yearlings this year dropped below 8000 for the first time in over 40 years and the drastic reduction in mares bred in Ontario the past two years will make this problem more acute. Where will all the racehorses come from to keep the existing tracks going ?

How to breed a World Champion - Marg Told You So

What do the trotter Market Share and the pacer Somwherovrarainbow have in common - besides setting world records in the past few days over a five-eights track in Pennsylvania ?

One of the first people to inspire my interest in pedigrees was a lady named Marg Neale. She was the first lady of pedigrees in Canada for many years. She worked for the Canadian Trotting Association, the predecessor of Standardbred Canada. If Marg Neale was still around she would tell you in no uncertain terms - I told you so.

Here is an excerpt from an interview of Marg by Dean Hoffman and published in Hoofbeats over twenty years ago. I have referenced it before on an earlier post but it bears repeating.

“There is a model of breeding that is like a pattern, and the pattern persists over generations, although, of course, the names change. I like to see a mare that is inbred, and a sire that is not.”

 

Two World Champions - two great examples of the wisdom of Marg Neale.

 

Market Share is by the Swedish sire Revenue, an outcross sire by Reve D`Udon,  a French stallion ,but from a dam that has totally North American bloodlines. The only common element between the sire and the dam is Peter Scott, the paternal line of the dam of Reve D`Udon, and also the paternal line of Sugarcane Hanover, sire of Revenue`s dam. Clearly a sire that is not inbred.

 

The dam of Market Share, however, is very much the opposite. Classical Flirt by Yankee Glide and her dam is by Donerail, both sons of Valley Victory and thus a 2x3 linebred. She is also maternally inbred to Speedy Crown as is her dam, Show Me Leg,  and her Bonefish second dam also adds another degree of inbreeding since he is also the damsire of Valley Victory. Clearly a mare that is extensively inbred.

 

If you look back over the pedigree of Classical Flirt you will see what Marg means by a "pattern that persists over generations" as the maternal inbreeding persists for several generations although, as Marg noted, the names involved change.

 

Market Share, himself, is outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally to Speedy Scot and Bonefish and as such is a typical good pedigree match..

 

Somwhrovrarainbow is a four year old mare by Somebeachsomewhere, arguably the top sire currently in North America, despite being from a much maligned sire line that was on the verge of extinction before he came along. Her sire line is through a family of pacing sires originating with the epochal trotting sire Volomite who is also responsible for the resurgent Noble Victory line in trotters.

 

SBSW is by Mach Three, an Ontario, Canada, based sire that was ignored by major North American stud farms, and out of a mare by Beach Towel, another sire held in low esteem by North American breeders. Beach Towel is also inbred maternally to the Volomite pacing line of sires. While Mach Three`s sire line represents an outcross and this is further enforced by the additional presence of Volomite in Beach Towel and also by two sire lines through Direct which have essentially died out in modern breeding. Clearly again a sire that is not inbred to the conventional pacing sire lines through Meadow Skipper and Adios.

 

The dam of Somwhrovertherainbow is Rainbow Blue, a world champion mare that is inbred maternally 3x2 to On The Road Again in the same fashion as the historic X-factor mares Helen Hanover and Margaret Parrish. She also carries a maternal cross to Adios being x-factor crossed to his son Bret Hanover and both she and her dam are x-factor inbred to Tar Heel, whose dam is by Volomite. Clearly a mare that is extensively inbred and like Market Share the inbreeding pattern extends back several generations maternally..

 

Also like Market Share she is outcrossed on sire line and inbred maternally, in her case to Most Happy Fella and his sire Meadow Skipper - another good pedigree match.

 

It is amazing to see how the standardbred breed reinvents itself with the success of unknown or less than popular sires like Mach Three, Revenue and Garland Lobell, none of whom had the advantage of the "best" broodmares to breed. The same could be said for the thorobred breed with the success of California Chrome by little known sire Lucky Pulpit setting the TB establishment on their ears. He too fits the pattern that Marg Neale believed in. Looks like there is still room for the little guy to make an impact on the future of both breeds.

 

And we can thank Marg Neale in part for that.

California Chrome

The winner of the Kentucky Derby is California Chrome who extends the recent trend of winners that are inbred maternally to either Mr Prospector or Northern Dancer. His pedigree has been described by others as plebian, ordinary, non classic, etc, as pundits struggle to understand where his racing excellence is coming from. Many thought he did not have the pedigree to go the distance but a closer look proves otherwise.

He is outcrossed on sire line - Nearco to Native Dancer and has a maternal inbreeding from his dam to his grandsire of Mr Prospector 4x3.  His sire, Lucky Pulpit whose stud fee is $2500 is another source of puzzlement to the thorobred pedigree experts. In addition to standing in California he was a modest racehorse although his dam is inbred maternally to Princequillo 4x4 and to Royal Charger (Nearco) 6x4 in a pattern of success familiar to standardbred breeders.

It is the dam of California Chrome, though, that likely provides the key to his excellence. Love The Chase was a low level claimer, bought for $8000, but her bargain price disguised a million dollar pedigree. She is outcrossed on sire line Mr Prospector to Northern Dancer and inbred to Northern Dancer maternally. That alone is sufficient to attract attention since mares inbred to Northern Dancer have been producing significant numbers of top horses in recent years. The real point of interest in the dam, however, is the mare Numbered Account who is 3x3 in X-factor position and thus Love The Chase is sibling inbred to a son, Polish Numbers (Northern Dancer) and a daughter, Dance Numbers (Danzig, son of Northern Dancer) of Numbered Account.

Numbered Account is by two time Horse Of The Year Buckpasser who was undefeated at three but not eligible for the Triple Crown races, although he soundly beat the top three year olds. Her dam is Intriguing by a Kentucky Derby winner in Swaps, and Intriguing is well named since she could well be the key to the pedigree of California Chrome.

In her book The X-Factor, Marianna Hahn detailed the search for the "large heart gene" supposedly responsible for the performance of Secretariat whose dam was by the same Princequillo that is doubled up maternally in Lucky Pulpit. She traced the genetic trail back to a mare called Pocahontas 1837, whose three sons, Stockwell, King Tom, and Rataplan, are noted maternal influences through their daughters. As I showed in my book "Queen Among Queens" the trail actually does not stop there but goes back through Diomed, the first winner of the English Derby and whose two best daughters, Young Giantess and Young Noisette, are doubled in X-factor position in Marpessa, the dam of Pocahontas.

Swaps, the sire of Intriguing, has an x-factor double to Stockwell maternally in his dam but more importantly his second dam is by Triple Crown winner War Admiral, who also is from a mare that has an x-factor double to Pocahontas through two of her sons, Stockwell and King Tom. But it gets better than that since the second dam of Intriguing is also by War Admiral making her a 4x3 x-factor inbred to a triple crown winner and double inbred to Pocahontas and to the two best daughters of Diomed accordingly. Now that is maternal power.

By the way, California Chrome's second dam is also inbred maternally to Princequillo, sire of the dam of Secretariat.  Not bred to go the distance eh?

Intriguing isn't it ?

Kentucky Derby Contenders - Update

The winners of the three Derbys on the weekend have jumped to the top of the leaderboard. Two of them are new to the top 20 contenders and they have extreme maternal inbreeding to Northern Dancer. Constitution, the upset winner of the Florida Derby has three different sons of Northern Dancer in his pedigree while Toast Of New York, winner of the United Emirates Derby has five.

The top eight and 14 of the top 20 are inbred maternally as noted below. Six of the top 8 are by Nearco line sires - five through Northern Dancer, while the other two are by Mr Prospector line sires.

1. Vicars In Trouble by Into Mischief.  Icecapade (Nearctic) 5x4
2. Toast Of New York by Thewayyouare. Northern Dancer (5x4)x(4x5x5), Red God (Nasrullah) 5x6
3. Constitution by Tapit.  Mr Prospector (4x5)x4, Northern Dancer 5x(5x5)
4. Intense Holiday by Harlans Holiday. Raise A Native 5x6
5. Wildcat Red by D`Wildcat Nasrullah 6x6, Raise A Native 4x5
6. We Miss Artie by Artie Schiller.   Raise A Native (sire of Mr Prospector) 5x(4x5)
7. Samraat by Noble Causeway.   Raise A Native 5x6, dam inbred to Raise A Native 5x5
8. Hoppertunity by Any Given Saturday.   Danzig (Northern Dancer) 3x4, dam 4x3 Northern Dancer
9. Chitu by Henny Hughes
10. Midnight Hawk by Midnight Lute
11. Ring Weekend by Tapit.   Fappiano (Mr Prospector) 4x3, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
12. California Chrome by Lucky Pulpit.   Mr Prospector 4x3, dam inbred to Northern Dancer 4x5
13. Tapiture by Tapit.  Raise A Native 6x6, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
14. General A Rod by Roman Ruler.   Danzig (Northern Dancer) 4x4
15. Albano by Istan
16. Cairo Prince by Pioneerof The Nile    
17. Uncle Sigh by Indian Charlie.   Northern Dancer (Nearctic) 5x4
18, Vinceremos by Pioneerof The Nile.   Bold Ruler (Nasrullah) 5x5
19. Harrys Holiday by Harlans Holiday
20. Commanding Curve by Master Command

April 5th we will see more dramatic changes in the top 20 as the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial are contested. The Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass finish off the Road to The Kentucky Derby on April 12th with the big race itself scheduled for April 19th.

Kentucky Derby

One of the biggest horse races in North America is the Kentucky Derby. There are over 300 horses eligible but only 20 get to start based on their earnings and points earned during a series of races in what is known as The Road to The Kentucky Derby. According to the race website the current top 20 are as listed below. There are some interesting pedigrees among the leading contenders to date.

A look back at the past winners since 2000 shows an interesting trend in the pedigrees. Thorobred breeders generally favour a pedigree with as little inbreeding as possible and indeed with the possibile exception of 2000 winner Fusaichi Pegasus, that has been evident in recent history but interestingly the last five winners have had significant maternal inbreeding. Last year the winner was Orb by Malibu Moon. Orb was inbred maternally to Mr Prospector 3x4. The year before Ill Have Another shows maternal inbreeding to Northern Dancer 5x5. Both of these winners were outcrossed on sire line. In 2011 Animal Kingdom had a pedigree more typical of past winners with virtually no duplications in six generations other than a 4x4 double of Lyphard (Northern Dancer) from his second dam to the dam of his grandsire Candy Stripes. The 2010 winner Super Saver was double inbred to Nasrullah (Nearco) while Mine That Bird in 2009 was 4x4 to Northern Dancer (grandson of Nearco) maternally.

In recent times there has been a spate of big winners that show maternal doubles to Northern Dancer and /or Mr Prospector. I have noted the ones on the current list that have that pedigree feature.


1. We Miss Artie by Artie Schiller.           Raise A Native (sire of Mr Prospector) 5x(4x5)
2. Samraat by Noble Causeway                 Raise A Native 5x6, dam inbred to Raise A Native 5x5
3. Hoppertunity by Any Given Saturday   Danzig (Northern Dancer) 3x4, dam 4x3 Northern Dancer
4. Chitu by Henny Hughes
5. Intense Holiday by Harlans Holiday     Raise A Native 5x6
6. Midnight Hawk by Midnight Lute
7. Wildcat Red by D`Wildcat                    Nasrullah 6x6, Raise A Native 4x5
8. Ring Weekend by Tapit                         Fappiano (Mr Prospector) 4x3, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
9. California Chrome by Lucky Pulpit      Mr Prospector 4x3, dam inbred to Northern Dancer 4x5
10. Tapiture by Tapit                                 Raise A Native 6x6, sire 3x4 to Mr Prospector
11. Albano by Istan                                  
12. Uncle Sigh by Indian Charlie              Northern Dancer (Nearctic) 5x4
13, Vinceremos by Pioneerof The Nile     Bold Ruler (Nasrullah) 5x5
14. Vicars In Trouble by Into Mischief     Icecapade (Nearctic) 5x4
15. Harrys Holiday by Harlans Holiday
16.General A Rod by Roman Ruler          Danzig (Northern Dancer) 4x4
17. Ride On Curlin by Curlin                    Northern Dancer 5x4
18. Havana by Dunkirk
19 Cairo Prince by Pioneerof The Nile    
20. Kristo by Distorted Humor                 Northern Dancer 4x4, dam is 6x6 Nearco

Looks like 14 - 6 in favour of the current Derby pattern of maternal inbreeding.

Over the next month the top ones will compete in a number of Derby races in Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, California and the Wood Memorial in New York.  The current list could change dramatically in the two weeks based on the results of these Derby Prep races.

The pedigrees can be viewed on PM Online Globerunner

http://www.pedigreematching.com/index.aspx

The Matchmaker

Every spring the best pacing mares in North America compete in the Matchmaker Series at Yonkers. The series is well named as the pedigrees of the four winners in the first leg are all great examples of Pedigree Matching in a variety of ways.

Coincidentally all four winners have Abercrombie line dams, two by Artsplace and one each by Life Sign and Artiscape and all four are by Meadow Skipper line sires so they satisfy the general rule of outcrossing on sire line. It is the maternal connections, however, that determine their greatness and the maternal breeding and X-factor doubles involved are something to see.

Angel's Delight is the least experienced of the four. Coming into the series with earnings of just over $100K she is a late bloomer whose pedigree is finally coming through. She is by Rocknroll Hanover and was bred by Lothlorien Stable in Ontario who were part owners of the stallion. Her dam, Belovedangel, was bought by Bob Mcintosh at Harrisburg as a yearling. Bob is a PM enthusiast from the early years and has been assisted by Dr Moira Gunn, formerly of Armstrong Farm, and one of my earliest PM followers. Moira and I combined forces to recommend the purchase of several mares for Lothlorien to breed to Rocknroll Hanover in his first year at stud. The highlight of that group was Kikikatie whose four breedings to Rocknroll Hanover have produced four $100K plus winners of over $2.5 million combined including first crop star Rockn Image $903,424. Belovedangel was also in that group of mares and although her five breedings to Rocknroll have been less spectacular they have produced five race starters, including a late racing two year old last year, with combined earnings approaching $500K including Audreys Dream $258K.

With an Artsplace dam that is inbred maternally to Meadow Skipper and from a mare that is also inbred to Meadow Skipper maternally, Angels Delight fit the expected profile for Rocknroll Hanover perfectly. Add to that her second dam by Matts Scooter providing a maternal double to Direct Scooter to compliment the double to Abercrombie and the success of this match was actually pretty predictable.

Summertime Lea also has a close connection to me from a pedigree matching standpoint. Her dam Donna Summer went through the New Jersey sale and I had recommended her purchase to one of my Prince Edward Island breeders. He was hesitant to pay a lot for a mare that had already produced a winner of $206K and she was in foal to Lislea for the fourth time and the first three had not been successful at the track. Two of those were colts, however, and the third was an as yet unraced yearling filly. The buyers were from Indiana and the resultant filly, Summertime Lea, ended up being trained by Ron Burke, making $553K racing in New York including the two year old NYSS championship. Genetics tells us that if you try the same breeding consistently you will get one of the four offspring that will be a top performer, 25%, and in this case it proved to be true.

Her dam is by Life Sign and as you can see from the pedigree that sire is a virtual clone of Lisheen, the dam of Lislea. The maternal sequence of both is Abercrombie - Albatross - Bret Hanover - Knight Dream with the last three sires being doubled in X-factor position. Added to this is a third dam also through Albatross making Donna Summer inbred maternally to that sire and also with an X-factor double to Bret Hanover. It helps too that Summertime Lea's second dam is a double to the X-factor pacing queen Helen Hanover.

Somwherovrtherainbow has a great mother in $1.6 million earner Rainbow Blue but even great race mares are no guarantee in the broodmare ranks unless they are bred to the right sire. After essentially failed breedings to top sires like Western Hanover, Bettors Delight and Dragon Again, she was finally paired up with Somebeachsomewhere, a sire that could take advantage of her close maternal inbreeding to Meadow Skipper. SBSW has a double Meadow Skipper dam and such sires predictably favour mares that are either linebred or inbred maternally to that sire line. Before she started racing I predicted in an earlier blog post that she would become the fastest female of all time. She certainly started out in the right direction as a two year old but struggled with health issues last year. Healthy now she is looking like this might be her year to achieve lasting greatness in the footsteps of her record setting mother.

Her dam is by Artiscape and is inbred to On The Road Again 3x2 maternally, an unusual but historically significant pattern that produced exceptional maternal influences like Helen Hanover and Margaret Parrish. Across the pedigree the X-factor highlights are Tar Heel and Bret Hanover, two individuals that show up consistently in X-factor position in great mares and for good reason as you can read in my book Queen Among Queens. Another interesting characteristic of this pedigree is the connection from Rainbow Blue to dam of the grandsire of Somwherovrtherainbow, Mach Three, where we see his maternal lines of Abercrombie and Most Happy Fella repeated. This outmatch pattern is a common feature in the best offspring by SBSW.

Yagonnakissmeornot is from the Artsplace mare Artstopper. She was bought by George Teague as a yearling and like many of his bargain purchases at Harrisburg she raced well at 2 and 3. Her four year old season was not up to par but starting her five year old campaign she now shows four wins and two seconds in her first seven starts. With $368K made she is the best of six from her dam and the only one by The Panderosa. A look at her pedigree tells you why this match worked better than the others.

Her pedigree is inbred maternally to Abercrombie and Gene Abbe and she has X-factor doubles to Tar Heel and Bret Hanover - enough said. She had a very good two year old by Always A Virgin last year and another in training this year by the same sire. Look for both of these to be prominent at the races in 2014 based on their pedigrees which feature maternal crosses to both Big Towner and Albatross.

I'm sure there will be other mares in this series that will win subsequent legs and I suspect they too will show the pedigree patterns that make for great mares.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/0m09mveyy9cd38o/Summertime_Lea.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/a53sgec8y3rec8e/Yagonnakissmeornot.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/k9tuyosttk48cbs/Angels_Delight.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/view/cnyipt8r99vnjs6/Somwherovrarainbow.pdf

2014 North American Stallion Finder

The Stallion Finder for sires standing in North America during 2014 is now available. The report tables list all sires, pacers and trotters, by name, State or Province standing, and by maternal lines together with a summary of preferred lines in the broodmares that fit the profiles of the sires.

Subscribers to PM Online can access a complimentary copy of the Stallion Finder in the PM Online library along with other Pedigree Matching publications including current stallion profiles. The Stallion Finder document can also be downloaded by submitting a Paypal payment of $25 through the Pedigree Matching website.

There are 313 sires listed, 182 pacers and 131 trotters, a considerable drop from the 374 in the 2013 Stallion Finder.

Sons of Western Hanover (35), Artsplace (16) and Cams Card Shark (13), lead the pacing sires while sires by Muscles Yankee (12). Yankee Glide (11), Valley Victory (8) and Garland Lobell (8) head the trotting lists.

Veteran pacing sires Abercrombie and Big Towner have just one representative left standing while current super sire Somebeachsomewhere has his first son in stud with So Surreal, a half brother to Well Said, that is standing in New York.

Speedy Crown and Super Bowl also have just one sire each in the trotting sire listings with Giant Hit in Delaware and American Winner in Pennsylvania respectively. An interesting addition to the trotting sire ranks is the first son of Revenue to stand stud in Break The Bank K who stands in Ohio. This is to my knowledge the first American bred son of a French sire to start a stud career in North America.

Stallions from Nowhere

It seems every year we see a previously unheralded sire spring to prominence with a special performer. It reinforces my feeling that any sire can have a top performer when given the right opportunity. Two years ago it was trotting sire Justice Hall and his Breeders Crown winning 3YO colt. Last year was the year of Believeinbruiser, a son of Mach Three, who produced the winner of the Ontario Sires Stakes Superfinal, a two year old colt called Bugger Bruiser.

The pedigree is eerily familiar to that of Captaintreacherous, also by a son of Mach Three in Somebeachsomewhere. In past posts we have discussed SBSW and seen that , with his double Meadow Skipper maternal line, he has shown his best with mares that also have double Meadow Skipper and especially when the mare is inbred maternally to that sire rather than linebred. Such was the case for Captaintreacherous whose dam is by Artsplace and with a second dam through Albatross.

Believeinbruiser is very similar maternally to SBSW, with a double Meadow Skipper line dam that features Cam Fella, so he shares the same profile and indeed that is confirmed by Bugger Bruiser as well as his second best to date Bad Girl Vegas and in his fourth best Bugger Max. All three are from non Meadow Skipper line mares that are closely inbred to Meadow Skipper. Bugger Bruiser, like Captaintreacherous, is from an Artsplace dam with a second dam through Albatross. The third best is from a Cam Fella line mare which is another part of the SBSW profile.

So now breeders in Ontario have an affordable alternative to SBSW right in their back yard.

Here is the pedigree from PM Online

http://www.mediafire.com/view/lq89xcdx4lvfy01/Bugger%20Bruiser.pdf