Database Update December 2012

An update to the Globetrotter database is now available at http://www.mediafire.com/?p7hkys4eglm9cm3

The update contains 2012 North American and French performance as well as their stallion listings for 2013. Please notify me of any additions or corrections to the stallion listings.

The Onslaught Begins - Part 2

Somebeachsomewhere has lived up to his early billing and it was interesting to see Somwherovertherainbow end the season with a Breeders Crown win. I still think she will set records next year as a three year old that will be scary fast.


It seems that SBSW has a definite filly tendency since 12 of his top 16 to date are fillies. Not really surprising since he is one of the few sires to have both Helen Hanover and Margaret Parrish maternally. It does make you wonder though about the high prices that the buyers at Lexington and particularily at Harrisburg are paying for his colts.

As part of my first "Onslaught" blog in the spring I told you about my colt Scarlet Chaser, the first colt I ever bred. His first year racing is in the books and he sports a record of 2:00.2h although race timed in better than 1:59 on several occasions. His summary is 2-3-4 in 14 starts, getting a cheque in every race and earning just over $20,000. That is pretty good in the Maritimes and puts him in the top four of his class. I've written a chapter in my book of horse stories about him and attached a preliminary copy of the book. I hope you enjoy it.

Horses In My Life

Deweycheatumnhowe - Just like his daddy

Muscles Yankee struggled to establish himself suffering from early criticism that he would not make a sire since he did not look like a trotter. His first crop did not sell that well and half way through the first season they seemed to be living up to the low expectations of the buyers. Prices at Lexington for his second crop suffered accordingly. Then in the month between Lexington and Harrisburg things began to change and with several two year olds making noise in the fall stakes the results at the Harrisburg sale were much improved.

It looks like "deja-vu" all over again as Deweycheatumnhowe looks to be following the same script. Ma Chere Hall set a two year old filly track record at Vernon Downs of 1.54.2 and joins two previous winners by Dewey with over $100K made to date. All three are from Conway Hall mares.That should not be a surprise to anyone that read my blog entry on January 28th, 2011. Here is what I said then in predicting what yearlings to look for .

"There were two things that you could expect for sure in Deweycheatumnhowes first crop.

Firstly that there would be several named similarily to their sire and so it is no surprise that track announcers will have to contend with Deweyconumnwow, Deweyflashthemnow, Deweykidumnhowe, Deweytrotandhowe etc.

The second guarantee is that stallion master Alan Leavitt would get the pedigrees right. One of the most important things that breeding farms have to be aware of is stallion succession and making sure that your next sire takes advantage of the daughters of your previous sire The daughters of Garland Lobell and his sons Andover, Angus and Conway Hall will do just that very nicely - thank you very much.

It was also no surprise that Walnut Hall mares are responsible for almost one third of his first crop of 82 yearlings. Not that there is a problem with that since there are few breeders who can energize a stallion's career like Mr Leavitt.

It is too bad Dewey did not come along ten years earlier when Garland Lobell mares were at their peak production but there are still some on the Walnut Hall premises with the colt Creole Hall being from Canland Hall. Alan had a good back up plan though since he also has a number of mares by Striking Sahbra from Garland Lobell mares. Since Dewey's maternal lines are Speedy Somolli and Noble Victory, and Striking Sahbra's dam is by Speedy Somolli with Garland Lobell being a grandson of Noble Victory you can see the strong maternal connection here

Mares by sons of Garland Lobell, notably the Hall brothers, are also featured in the first crop. Since they collectively did their best work with Speedy Crown line mares and down the line to Valley Victory they are a natural fit to the Noble Victory - Speedy Somolli combination in Deweycheatumnhowe, the same maternal combination as in the dam of Muscles Yankee who was Speedy Crown - Noble Victory maternally. There are several yearlings with Valley Victory - Speedy Crown on the maternal line and if you read the note from Nicolas Matzka on the One Trick Ponies posting you can see that pattern is becoming an attractive feature, at least in Europe.

There are several other ways to match to Dewey and one is to use Super Bowl line dams with Speedy Crown or Noble Victory doubled maternally. This makes sense since Muscles Yankee did very well with the likes of Supergill and American Winner mares and since Deweys maternal lines are much the same you can reasonably expect his dad to be a pretty good role model. There are several yearlings in this category."

Below is a link to the sire profiile for Deweycheatumnhowe based on his top 16 performers. Seven of the top 10 were bred by Alan Leavitt. The top six and twelve of the top 16 are all from mares by Garland Lobell or one of his sons, Conway, Andover or Angus Hall or by Balanced Image. Ten of these have a Speedy Crown line maternally in the 2nd or 3rd dam. The other two have no Speedy Crown but have an additional Noble Victory line maternally. There is one from a Super Bowl line dam that is inbred to Speedy Crown, an option that I also suggested. This possibility also extends to Arnie Almahurst line dams since there are two dams by sons of Pine Chip that are inbred to Speedy Crown line.

This is an excellent example of how you can predict what mares will do best with a new stallion. There is no reason for breeders to do otherwise. It is not rocket science. If you are still not sure give Alan Leavitt a call - he obviously gets it, just like Bob Marks got it with Muscles Yankee and turned him into a great sire despite the knockers.

http://www.mediafire.com/?vnh2n2v3bh665

A Pattern to Watch For

Back in 1998 when we introduced the Pedigree Matching program at Harrisburg I sat down with a successful trainer and discussed pedigrees. He wanted to know what to look for on the pedigree page. He wanted something simple as a golden rule. We ran through some successful pedigrees and it was remarkable that many of the top individuals of the day did indeed show a particular pattern. Using that pattern the trainer has gone on to be one of the top trainers of young horses in North America.

The pedigree pattern he has since followed was indeed simple. Buy yearlings that were crossed maternally on Albatross for pacers and on Speedy Crown for trotters. Fourteen years later that pattern remains valid except it has moved to the maternal lines. Now we see the top performers coming from mares that are bred that way.

Jug winner Michaels Power is a case in point. He is by Camluck, a sire with no Albatross maternally but his dam is inbred 3x3 to Albatross maternally being by Artsplace, whose dam is by Albatross, and with a second dam by a son of Albatross. Captaintreachorous, the top two year old so far this year, is also from an Artsplace mare that. is inbred 3x4 to Albatross. Rocknroll Hanover has seven of his top ten that show a variation of this pattern with second or third dams through Albatross. Rockincam, winner of the Winbak on Jug Day, is another great example.

On the trotting side we have seen last year's Hambletonian winner Broad Bahn whose dam is inbred 3x3 to Speedy Crown. Cantab Hall has a particular liking for such mares and his best is Explosive Matter, also 3x3 to Speedy Crown in his dam.and most of his top ten show a similar pattern.

This pattern shows up best for sires like Camluck and Cantab Hall that have no Albatross or Speedy Crown maternally but also for sires that themselves have either of these individuals doubled up in their own dams such as Majestic Son and his top two year old Murmur Hanover, or Kadabra's top performer Daylon Magician, or Check Me Out by Donato Hanover a sire that also fits the pattern.

Unfortunately such crosses are not evident in the sales catalog due to the restricted pedigree chart but will jump right off the page when you can see a five generation pedigree chart.

Of course a pattern is just a pattern. You still need to have the pedigree content and the conformation to go with it. Dominant maternal crosses are , however, a good way to short list for potential top horses before you get to see them in the flesh.

Attachment: Broad Bahn Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Captaintreacherous Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Michaels Power Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Market Share Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Murmur Hanover Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Rockincam Pedigree.pdf

Database Update

A database update is available here

http://www.mediafire.com/file/p7hkys4eglm9cm3/horses.zip

Performance has been updated for sires in major sales and the yearlings have been flagged by sale.

To get a list of the yearlings in Harrisburg use the advanced search option in Globetrotter, select UserDefined1 = H. For Lexington use L, Hoosier Classic - HC, Forest City - F, Morrisville - M, Atlantic Classic - AT

The database will be replaced in PedigreeGuru sometime tomorrow.

Harrisburg Yearling Profiles

Here they are - 1200 of the finest yearlings in North America. There is something for everyone in this sale with a broad selection of the best sires in the USA and Canada.

You can access the pedigrees on the Black Book website.

Happy hunting

Attachment: Harrisburg Pacing Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Harrisburg Trotting Yearling Profiles.pdf

Morrisville Sale

The Morrisville sale is a typical regional sale that features yearlings that are not good enough for the major sales in Lexington or Harrisburg. There are 172 yearlings consigned and I could find only 17 that have a chance of paying for themselves over their lifetime.

The sires include Bettors Delight, American Ideal, Credit Winner and Conway Hall but dont expect that any of their progeny in this sale will win the Little Brown Jug or the Hambletonian.

The first crop sires include Big Apple Deli, a name I am sure you are not familiar with and based on the mares he bred you are unlikely to hear any more from. If I Can Dream on the pacing side should have something to offer being a full brother to Western Terror but it seems the breeders have ignored the profile of Western Terror.

Winbak Farms stands several sires in New York and Sand Vic, with 16 yearlings has, next to Cash Hall, the most yearlings in the sale. American Ideal has the most on the pacing side.

Kenneth J was a surprise to me in the reception he received for his first crop but it seems the buyers were right since he has produced nothing special to date. That does not mean he will continue to fire blanks since there are a couple of yearlings here that are worth looking at.

If I was interested in buying something I would look at an Art Major colt called Bismark Blue Chip, a Bettors Delight filly Tarport Belle, and a Cash Hall filly called Nestegg

Attachment: Morrisville Pacing Yearlings.pdf
Attachment: Morrisville Trotting Yearlings.pdf

Indiana Premier Sale

This sale to be held the last week in September has much the same selection as the Hoosier Classic. Another nice group of, for the most part, well matched yearlings by Swan For All in this sale.

Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Indiana Premier Sale.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Indiana Premier Sale.pdf

Hoosier Classic Yearlings

The biggest yearling sale in Indiana is the Hoosier Classic coming up in mid October. There are 330 in the sale but seriously there are only a handful of the sires that could give you a shot at something special.

Sand Shooter is well represented but has been shooting blanks with his first crop as two year olds. Always A Virgin is another sire popular last year with his first offerings but he is still a virgin as far as having a serious stakes contender. Panspacificflight had early success with the colt Flight Elal but has not followed through on that success. Perhaps the buyers can find a good one by first crop sire Total Truth who has 27 yearlings listed. He may have a problem though in finding something in the mares to match up to his somewhat old fashioned maternal line of Walton Hanover - Meadow Skipper. Hi is out of a full sister to Totally Western who is standing in New York. The best one by Totally Western is typical of what you will need to look for as it is from a mare line-bred to Meadow Skipper and doubles that sire back 4x4 to the dam of Totally Western. To the extent you can also find mares that have a Big Towner line that should add to the opportunities. Too bad there is only one yearling from a mare by Keystone Raider. His name is The Simple Truth and he could be one of the best to be truthful.

The big sire in the sale this year, other than perennial favourite Jailhouse Jesse should be first crop sire Swan For All. He has a unique maternal line that is line bred to Baltic Speed. As a son of Andover Hall from a double Speedy Crown line dam he has a great model to follow in Majestic Son who has established his profile as expected that features the following factors:

Non Speedy Crown line mares with Stars Pride and Arnie Almahurst maternally, mares that are line-bred to Speedy Crown, and mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top three fit the first profile factor, his next three fit the second profile factor and the next two his third factor.

Someone has done their homework well in choosing the mares for Swan For All as 16 of the 26 yearlings in this sale are right on the profile and several others you can make a case for in part. I particularly like the colts All For The Crown and Controller. The former has a pedigree that would put him in the upper ranks in a major sale. There are also some very daring pedigrees for some of the fillies such as Swan Life To Live from a Lindy Lane mare bringing that sire 3x2 maternally across the pedigree. It is a filly though and such pedigrees have been known to produce something very special. Swan Princess, from a mare by Valley Victory, is another bold move but I would not ignore her.

 

Attachment: Sire Profile for Majestic Son.pdf
Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf
Attachment: Controller Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: All For The Crown Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Classic.pdf

Yearlings by Well Said

The first crop yearlings by Well Said are highly anticipated and the major sales have many on offer but how do you pick out the ones with the best chance of success based on pedigree. As I have noted before, the process is actually quite simple and you can indeed forecast what type of mares Well Said will do best with. First you must find a sire with similar maternal lines that already has foals racing. If you check the Stallion Chooser you will find two such sires, Village Jolt and Western Maverick.

Well Said is by Western Hanover and his maternal line combines Artsplace (Abercrombie) and Matts Scooter (Direct Scooter)

Western Maverick is by Western Hanover and his maternal lines are through Laag (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter

Village Jolt is by Cams Card Shark and his dam is Life Sign (Abercrombie) and Direct Scooter. In fact the maternal line of Village Jolt has similarities to that of Well Said that extend back several more generations.

These three sires share a basic profile that calls for:

Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Meadow Skipper line dams with a second dam through Adios or Volomite, or double Meadow Skipper line dams.

Looking at the sire profiles for Village Jolt and Western Maverick (attached) you will find that the top 16 performers for each sire are almost equally distributed between Meadow Skipper line (red) and Non Meadow Skipper line (other than red). In the case of Village Jolt by Cams Card Shark the Meadow Skipper lines are usually through Most Happy Fella other than through Cam Fella, while Western Maverick for the most part preferred mares of any other Meadow Skipper line including the MHF lines through Tyler B and Cam Fella. Well Said can be expected to do likewise.

Looking closer at the profiles you will see that regardless of the sire line of the mare there are two very specific elements in play. 30 of the 32 listed performers have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam by Meadow Skipper, a son of Meadow Skipper or an Albatross line sire and 30 of the 32, not necessarily the same 30, have a 1st to 3rd dam or broodmare sire dam through Abercrombie or Adios (blue) and/or Volomite (green) quite often the Direct Scooter line.

This makes the process very simple. A single statement combining these two elements covers 95% of the top performers. There are always excceptions such as R Lil King with no Meadow Skipper line maternally but in his case the broodmare sire, Armbro Getty, combines both Abercrombie and the Volomite line sire Horton Hanover. Lil Motion has no Adios line but has a direct connection to Sampson Direct, sire of Direct Scooter.While these are exceptions to the general profile there are valid reasons to justify their success based on pedigree. The only other one in the top performers of either sire that falls outside the profile is Magic Maverick with no Adios or Volomite line but his dam is inbred to Good Time and if you can find a Well Said from a similar mare then it obviously cannot be ignored.

You will be surprised to see which of the Well Said yearlings fit or don't fit this profile. That profile for Well Said was clearly established when he went to stud based on the performers by Western Maverick and Village Jolt. Did the breeders guess right ? This time next year you will find out whether breeders guesses win out over informed decisions based on following the profile.

Now I dont want anyone to interpret my remarks as a condemnation of Well Said because of his similar pedigree to two essentially failed sires. The mares that Well Said received are far superior in quality. That in itself does not guarantee success but if there are sufficient of the correct type with respect to profile he will do very well. He is, after all, a superior individual as a racehorse and in his own maternal family.

Attachment: Well Said Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Village Jolt Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Western Maverick Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Village Jolt.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Western Maverick.pdf

Understanding the Yearling Profiles

The profiles list the yearlings grouped alphabetically by sire. There are four sire profile columns which identify the sires of the first four dams in the pedigree. Each is colour coded to help identify the sire line - For pacers the red is Meadow Skipper, Blue is Adios line, Green is Volomite line and occasionally you will see light blue for the Big Towner line. For the trotters red is the Speedster line, Blue is Stars Pride, green is Volomite through Victory Song and brown is the rarely seen Axworthy line.

Below each sire name is a group of letters e.g. AHKMO which represents the maternal traces to key mares Adioo, Hatteras, Kathleen, Manette and Oniska. M2 is the inbred Margaret Parrish and A2 is Helen Hanover. These traces when combined in a pedigree often give a pattern which is common to the top performers known as the X-profile of the dam - this is shown in the last column. To the left of this combination is a tabulation by trace that shows which traces are doubled in the mares pedigree with each trace doubled signified by the number 1.

Also below the sire names in the first and second columns you will see two numbers e.g. 60 18. This is the cross statistic and in this case it shows the cross has produced 60 of racing age and 18% have earned over $100K. A good percentage is 15%. Any crosses lower than that should be carefully examined to make sure the yearling in question is similar, or not, to the few successful ones. The stats under the first column refer to the primary cross of sire and broodmare sire in the yearling while the second column shows the secondary cross of the mare herself. In the case of a new sire the primary cross numbers will show 0 0.

The yearling profiles should be used in conjunction with the Stallion profiles. As a Multiply member and a friend of this site you have access to these stallion profiles which show the top performers for each stallion in a format similar to the yearling profiles. Each stallion profile also indicates in summary the profile factors to look for in the yearling e.g. a stallion may favour non Meadow Skipper line mares, or mares that combine certain individuals, or Super Bowl line dams with a second dam through Speedy Crown etc. For those stallions that have yet to see their progeny race you can use a similar stallion as a model, as I have discussed in several recent entries regarding sires like Muscle Hill.

Once you have narrowed down the list to the ones that fit the sire profile and have good cross stats then you can put a number on the pedigree that is based on the speed and earnings in the first three dams. Rating the pedigrees like this gives you a priority list for inspection. You can then add any adjustments based on conformation to arrive at your short list of yearlings that fit your criteria based on cost, jurisdiction, gait, sex etc.

Doing your homework like this is not a guarantee that you will buy the next champion. It will, however, prevent you from making costly mistakes and greatly improve your chances of success, not to mention the reduced wear on your shoes.

If this all sounds like too much work then you can always call me for the yearling ratings for any sale. You can get them in total, by gait, by sex, or by racing jurisdiction. Once all of the sales are listed you can even get a North America Top 100 list for any gait/sex combination. For details and pricing email me at norman_g_hall@hotmail.com or send a private message through this site.

Check to see if the pedigree is right before you write the cheque.

Lexington Selected Sale

Attached are the profiles for the Lexington yearlings selling October 2nd - 6th. The sale has 703 catalogued which is down about 10% from last year, a reflection of the continuing drop in yearling numbers in North America. The Harrisburg sale also shows a drop in numbers overall when you factor in the extra ones last year from the aborted New Jersey sale but I understand the increase in Canadian entries has offset that somewhat.

I will get to the Harrisburg sale in a couple of weeks after I look at Morrisville and the other Indiana sales. Between the big two, Harrisburg and Lexington, there will be about 2000 yearlings to look at, an impossible task if you want to inspect them all. There is a better way and that is to narrow the list for inspection down to those that fit the profile of the sire. This typically cuts the overall list to 25% and from there you can shorten it further by your preference for gait. sex or racing jurisdiction. The Black Book has a neat new feature that you can use to store your list and the ratings you give for pedigree and conformation. Both sales will also be available on the Horse sale app from Equineline.

I will post the profiles for the stallions in both sales over the next two weeks under the Links section. To access them you will need to join Multiply and send me a friend request if you have not already done so.

Attachment: Yearling Profiles for Lexington Select Pacers.pdf
Attachment: Yearling Profiles for Lexington Select Trotters.pdf

Forest City Pacing Yearlings

Attached are the profiles for the pacing bred yearlings for the Forest City sale in October. The quality here tends to be higher than the Canadian Open since it is somewhat of a select sale but the sire selection is essentially the same with emphasis on the stallions standing at Seelster Farms, one of the owners of the sale.

The outcome of the Canadian sales does not look promising with the current Liberal government doing significant damage to the industry as a whole with their proposal to end the funding from slots revenues at the tracks. That does not, however, affect the quality of the yearlings and their potential as race horses in other jurisdictions. I think we all wish for a successful outcome.

Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Forest City Sale.pdf

Italian Yearling Sales

About 700 yearlings will be sold this fall at four different venues in Italy. The two largest sales at Milan (322 entries) and Naples (155) are run by ANACT, the National Breeders organization. The best yearlings, however, are usually found at one of other sales run by a private sale company. The better of the two sales run by ITS (see the website at www.its-aste.com) is the Busto Arsizio sale. Here you will find mostly American sired yearlings and also ones by some of the top sires in Europe. The second ITS sale at Gangliano on September 20th has more of an Italian bred flavour with sires that we seldom hear about in North America.

The Busto sale on September 12th features three yearlings consigned by Lou Guida. They all have America in their names. Lou has had considerable success as a breeder in Italy and just recently retired his great mare Lisa America, one of the top female trotters in Europe for the past three years. There is a sibling to Lisa America in the Busto sale that will likely be one of the sale toppers.

 

Attachment: Italian Yearling Profiles - Busto Arsizio Sale.pdf
Attachment: Italy Yearling Profiles - Gangliano.pdf

Forest City Trotting Yearlings

The profiles for the Forest City trotting yearlings are attached. Established sires like Angus Hall and Kadabra are well represented as usual and new sires of interest including Federal Flex and Windsong Espoir. There is a much smaller presence of Muscle Mass yearlings probably based on his first crop which has been less than spectacular considering some of the prices paid last year. Surprisingly there are only two by Majestic Son, a sire that is doing rather better than I expected.

To use a baseball analogy - If you want to catch a home run ball, you first need to get in the ballpark, then the right section depending on whether the potential home run hitter is a left or right pull hitter, and then be lucky enough to be in the right seat.

Using the sire profiles is a big step to getting you that prime spot. Some of you have been asking for clarification on how to use the profiles. Lets look at two sires, one established, Angus Hall, and one new, Federal Flex.

Angus Hall has been around long enough to have established quite clearly what his home run horses look like on the pedigree page. His overall profile calls for the following types of mares that will produce yearlings capable of being in his top performers.

His top 16 performers fit the following criteria. The number in brackets gives the number or top performers in the top 16 that fit that particular part of the profile.

!. Speedy Crown line dams with Super Bowl, a son of Super Bowl, or Bonefish line second or third dam or a broodmare sire with a dam by Bonefish (8)

2. Super Bowl or Noble Victory line dams with a Speedy Crown line 2nd or 3rd dam or a broodmare sire with a Speedy Crown line dam (6)

3. Dams with no Speedy Crown maternally and with Super Bowl line 2nd dam (1)

4. Arndon line dam with Super Bowl line 2nd dam (1)

You will find these criteria will carry on down through almost all of his $100K earners but what about his home runs, the millionaires ? The top 5 all have a line through Speedy Crown or a son, and one through Bonefish, in the dam.

The top 9 and 15 of the top 16 all have a line through Speedy Crown or a son,  and one through Bonefish or Super Bowl, in the dam.

I dont see any yearlings in here that could crack the top 5 but there are a few that could make his $100K plus list. I will leave you to figure those ones out.

Federal Flex is a sire I discussed earlier when we looked at Muscle Hill, a sire with similar lines, being by Muscles Yankee from a mare line bred to Stars Pride. I noted then that there were several sires with foals racing that can give us a lead on what to look for initially in the first crop of both Federal Flex and Muscle Hill. Here is what you need to be aware of.

Federal Flex is by Muscles Yankee (Speedy Somolli line) from a dam by Sjs Photo (Hickory Pride line), second dam by Joie de Vie (Super Bowl). Typically such sires, with no Speedy Crown maternally, will do very well with mares that are inbred maternally to Speedy Crown and are by sires that connect to the key individuals on their own maternal lines e.g. Hickory Pride and/or Super Bowl, most likely the latter since Super Bowl is a more dominant factor in pedigrees.

Star Challenge is a Speedy Somolli line sire with a dam by Stars Pride line sire Lindys Crown, second dam by Super Bowl. He has been standing in the States for several years and his best, with over $450K made is from a mare by a son of Super Bowl that is inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. His top two and 6 of his top 7 are bred this way.

Diesel Don is a full brother to Muscle Hill. He stands in Finland. His best to date is also from a mare by a son of Super Bowl and the dam is inbred maternally to Speedster and the broodmare sire has a Speedy Crown line dam. His top 5 all have the same pattern.

Incredible Abe, who produced millionaire Abbey Road C did things a little different since his top two are from Noble Victory line dams but still mares that were inbred to Speedster or Speedy Crown maternally.

There were some good performers by these three sires that were from Speedy Crown line dams but in almost every case the mares involved were inbred maternally to Stars Pride.

Again I will leave it to you to come up with the yearlings that fit the profile. If you want to compare notes send me your choices and I will fill in any gaps in the selection process. You obviously have to address the content in the pedigrees as well as the structure. You will find that several of the yearlings by Angus Hall and Federal Flex that fit the profiles are, however, a bit short on content with respect to earnings and speed in the family.

Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Forest City Sale.pdf

Hoosier Heritage Sale

The first of three yearling sales in Indiana comes up on September 1st. It is an offshoot of the much larger Hoosier Classic that takes place a month later and from a look at the pedigrees shoot would be the operative word for the vast majority of the 150 yearlings catalogued.

It always baffles me to see how breeders squander their resources on raising animals with virtually zero chance of success. Some of these are by nice sires like the ones by first crop sire Swan For All. His stud fee was $5000 and the mares in here that were bred to him would not collectively be worth that much. There are a couple of nice pedigrees from a matching standpoint, like Graceful Swan and Swan Of A Kind but there is virtually zero performance in the families. If they were great looking individuals you might take a chance on being the first one with something special, it does happen - rarely.

You can quickly tell the value of the maternal line by checking the sire cross statistics especially the numbers under the 2nd Dam Sire. Graceful Swans dam is actually one of the better ones since she has a cross that is 21% successful from 130 such matings of Pine Chip to Valley Victory dams. Swan Of A Kind's dam has a cross that has only been tried four times with nothing to date. The numbers under the first Dam Sire are the stats for the cross of the current foal. These are all zeros for Swan For All since he is a first crop sire. At a minimum I look for a cross percentage of 15% or more. Anything less needs much closer inspection.

The pacing sires in this sale include Sand Shooter whose first crop was well received last year but so far they have disappointed on the track. Most of the other sires have been around for a while or are unpopular for other reasons. There are two yearlings by Total Truth and the colt Total Proof may be worth close inspection just for his dad's sake at least.

Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Heritage Sale.pdf
Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Hoosier Heritage Sale.pdf

Norway Yearling Sale

One of our Multiply friends asked for a profile of the Norway sale in September. It is a small sale, 107 trotters and another 60 or so coldbloods.

The warmblood trotting sires involved range far and wide. There are NA sires such as Muscle Hill, Federal Flex, Kadabra, Muscle Mass and Muscles Yankee. There are yearlings by former NA stallions like Enjoy Lavec, Lindy Lane, S Js Photo and Dream Vacation. You will also see new sires from North America like Adrian Chip, Clerk Magistrate as well as French stallions like Daguet Rapide and Offshore Dream. There are even two by the German stallion Diamond Way who is now 30 and still breeding.

For the most part, however, the mares are forgettable although there are some pleasant surprises.

One that jumped out at me is the filly Pocahana by Enjoy Lavec. She is from a Mack Lobell mare and that cross is 44% while the second dam by Speedy Crown is 45% with Mack Lobell. There is a sibling cross through Matina Hanover and the dam has already produced some special individuals.

Another that stands out is the Kadabra colt Trottin Genius from a mare that combines Balanced Image and Speedy Crown, similar to Windsong Espoir. The family here is also substantial.

Others I like are Here Chippie Chippie, Biche Va Bien, Benny Lane W, Hayos Arvella, Al Qasr, and Avenger.

Attachment: Yearling Profiles for Norway Sale.pdf
Attachment: Pocahana Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Trottin Genius Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: katalog2012.pdf

Canadian Open Trotting Yearlings

The top group of sires with trotting yearlings in the Canadian Open includes Angus Hall and Kadabra, both sires with major league performers that continue to do well. Federal Flex and Windsong Espoir yearlings should also attract attention as first crop possibilities. Majestic Son appears to be extending his first crop success into his two year olds this year although both he and Muscle Mass seem destined to be good regional sires rather than producers of Grand Circuit material. And then there is the surprisingly lacklustre Deweycheatumnhowe to date.

The Maybe group in this sale includes Amigo Hall, the departed Ken Warkentin, and Striking Sahbra, while the risky buys will be yearlings by Cornaro Dasolo, Mr Lavec, Mutineer, and the unraced The Pres.

I have previously blogged on Federal Flex on a couple of occasions with regards to his similarity to Muscle Hill and the likely profile of his top performers. Windsong Espoir, as a son of Kadabra, is typical of the best by that sire being from a Noble Victory line dam as are 11 of Kadabra's top 16. I expect that connection to also be best for Windsong Espoir. His maternal lines are Balanced Image - Speedy Crown. Yearlings from mares by Angus Hall or by sons of Balanced Image should be among his best especially those inbred maternally to Speedy Crown. In that respect the sire to model on is Rc Royalty, a Super Bowl line sire with maternal lines of Balanced Image - Speedy Scot.

A couple of sires with modest results to date are Deweycheatumnhowe and Muscle Mass. Dewey, who is Speedy Somolli - Noble Victory maternally,  is sticking close to his profile with 11 of his top 16 being from Noble Victory line dams and 9 of his top 10 showing a line through Speedy Somolli. His best performer has just $46K made but it is still too early to make a real judgement. The same can be said for Muscle Mass whose best are all over the map so far with respect to profile which does not come as a surprise since similar sires like Glidemaster have been every bit as unpredictable and inconsistent. One of the few I liked last year at the yearling sales was Muscle Magic, who is right on profile and off to a good start to date with a close third place finish in the first OSS Gold Final. and two seconds in Gold elims. Take a look at Northern Cone in this sale.

Attachment: Trotting Yearling Profiles for Canadian Open.pdf

Canadian Open Pacing Yearlings

Attached you will find the profiles for the pacing yearlings in the Canadian Open Sale.

As you can expect in an Open sale there is a variety of sires represented that you can put in Yes, Maybe and No groupings. The Yes group for this sale includes several new sires with potential to be successful based on their racing careers as we see in Artistic Fella, Major In Art, Mister Big and Shadow Play, It also would include the sires that to date have shown the ability to produce a special individual such as Mach Three, Badlands Hanover and Camluck. There are also yearlings by Rocknroll Hanover and If I Can Dream, the full brother to Western Terror to consider.

The Maybe sires are those that have had limited success to date as first crop sires or are ones that have done well but not lately. I would Include Astronomical, Blissfull Hall, His Mattjesty, Jeremes Jet, No Pan Intended, Santanna Blue Chip and Stonebridge Regal here.

The No sires are those that have underperformed as sires or that have little chance of producing something special. Armbro Deuce, Classic Card Shark, Daylon Frontier, Eagle Luck, Electric Stena, Lis Mara, Sir Luck and Whosurboy. This is not to say that they have no chance to be successful but if you are looking at one then it better be an outstanding individual to offset the risk. There is always another Warrawee Needy out there.

Looking at the first crop sires is always a challenge to figure out which way they will lean. The Stallion Finder tables will give you a ballpark to look in but usually there are three or four groups of mares that will fit each sire based on the maternal lines of the sire.

Artistic Fella falls into a large group that includes sires with Abercrombie - Meadow Skipper line combinations maternally. His maternal lines through Artsplace and No Nukes bring him close to such sires as Western Terror (Artsplace - On The Road Again) . The general profile is for Non Meadow Skipper line dams, Double Meadow Skipper line dams and for Meadow Skipper line dams with Adios line second dams. In the case of Western Terror this is exactly the order of priority with 11 of the top 16 fitting the first category, 4 in the second category and just one that fits the third profile factor. Clearly the percentages favour Non Meadow Skipper line dams although the very best by Western Terror, Western Silk, is from a double Meadow Skipper dam that is inbred maternally to Most Happy Fella. You may want to take a close look at Marigold Bloom accordingly.

Major In Art combines Jate Lobell and Big Towner maternally and may well take after his sire Art Major whose maternal lines are Nihilator - Big Towner. The profile factors are for mares that are Meadow Skipper line with an Adios or Big Towner line 2nd or 3rd Dam, or dams with a 2nd or 3rd dam by Meadow Skipper, a son, or an Albatross line sire. Dams by Big Towner line sires are also a consideration. Interestingly while 12 of the top sixteen by Art Major are from Meadow Skipper line dams, four of the top five including the top two fit the other profile factors. Perhaps you should focus on the four yearlings in this sale that fit the minority factors.

Mister Big is Jate Lobell - Cam Fella maternally. He is unique in that respect but in general he fits a category of sires that will favour mares that offer combinations of Meadow Skipper lines featuring No Nukes and Cam Fella.

Shadow Wave will probaly be the most popular first crop sire in Ontario and deservedly so. His maternal lines of Matts Scooter  - Warm Breeze make him open particularily to mares that are non Meadow Skipper line and inbred to Meadow Skipper, especially through Albatross. You only need to look at World Champion Put On A Show for inspiration. She is by Rocknroll Hanover, like Shadow Play a grandson of Western Hanover, whose maternal lines are Direct Scooter - Abercrombie, the same Direct Scooter - Adios line combination as in Shadow Play. How about Kesons Silhouette or Hidden Expression ?

I will add the sire profiles to the Links page over the next few days for the other sires in the sale. Good luck with your choices.

Attachment: Pacing Yearling Profiles for 2012 Canadian Open.pdf

The Adios Sale

The first yearling sale of 2012 takes place on the 27th at The Meadows in Pennsylvania. The Adios sale features 30 yearlings from Hanover Shoe Farms from a variety of their sires including one by Somebeachsomewhere and three by first crop trotting sire Explosive Matter. There is also a very interesting colt by Donato Hanover called Cold Front Hanover.

The profiles for the yearlings are attached and I will post the updated stallion profiles for the sires in this sale shortly on the Links page.

 

Attachment: Adios Sale - Pacers.pdf
Attachment: Adios Sale - Trotters.pdf

The onslaught begins

Two significant developments happened today

A Somebeachsomewhere colt paced in 1.51.2f and a colt by Hussy Chaser won in 2.02h.

I predicted that SBSW would rewrite the record books this year and so far it looks like he will fulfill that promise. He has 72 of 128 foals qualified in his first crop and already has 12 in 1.55..  George Teague has a filly from Rainbow Blue that will pace in 1.46 next year, mark that on your calender.

On the home front the first foal I have ever bred , Scarlet Chaser, won an Atlantic Sires B Stake in 2.02h. I initially called him Harrier but that name was taken. His dam is a three quarter sister to Camluck and his sire is a horse I bought for $1,500 who went on to make over $520,000.

He probably wont match the accomplishments of the offspring of SBSW but you never know.  So far so good.

 

Attachment: Scarlet Chaser Pedigree.pdf

Muscle Hill and Federal Flex

As noted in a couple of earlier blog entries these two sires have similar pedigrees and can be expected to relate well to similar mares. I also noted earlier that Muscle Hill has a full brother, Diesel Don, with foals now racing in Sweden, and there are two producing sires in North America that have maternal lines similar to those of Federal Flex, namely Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe.

Muscle Hill is by Muscles Yankee from a dam by American Winner (Super Bowl) with a second dam by Hickory Pride making his dam line bred to Stars Pride. Federal Flex flips the maternal combination over since his dam is by S Js Photo, a Stars Pride line stallion through Hickory Pride, and his second dam is by Joie de Vie by Super Bowl. This is a subtle difference since it affects the profile priority for one sire versus the other even though the overall profile remains the same.

I have attached the profiles for Diesel Don, Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe. Clearly the presence of Super Bowl maternally in the dams of their successful performers stands out. In the case of Diesel Don, however, the Super Bowl line is that of the broodmare sire while the other two sires prefer mares with Super Bowl 2nd and occasionally third dams. This may have something to do with the position of Super Bowl in the sires being in the same corresponding position, i.e. In the first dam of Diesel Don, and in the second dam of Amigo Hall and Incredible Abe,

There are other possible profile factors that could be in play. Typically when a sire has no Speedy Crown maternally we see them succeed with dams that double up that sire either linebred or inbred maternally. Monte Hall by Incredible Abe is an example of this, as is York Kemp by Diesel Don.

Another combination to watch for are mares that combine Speedy Crown and Noble Victory lines maternally. See Xandria Kemp by Diesel Don, as well as several good ones from Garland Lobell mares.

For the first crop, however, the odds are in favour of following the principal profile factor.

Attached also are the profiles of the yearlings by Muscle Hill and Federal Flex.

The yearling pedigrees are now in the Globetrotter database and are also available online at www.pedigreeguru.com .

Attachment: Sire Profile for Amigo Hall.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Diesel Don.pdf
Attachment: Sire Profile for Incredible Abe.pdf
Attachment: Federal Flex Yearling Profiles.pdf
Attachment: Muscle Hill Yearling Profiles.pdf

North American Yearlings

I have added the North American yearlings to the database. There are 8.970 registered to date in North America, down from 9,534 last year. In the last five years the number of yearlings has dropped from 11,870 - 24.5%. The pacing yearlings represent 59.7% of the ones registered to date versus 58.6% in 2007.

The number of sires active continues to drop with 68 sires in North America producing 75% of the current crop of yearlings. There are over 400 sires with yearling foals in 2012 but many of them have less than 5 foals.

The breeding industry is in freefall. The concentration of breedings into a select number of sires is a disaster in the making. While there are many sires in the industry that have something to offer, the breeders are increasingly leaning to the "flavour of the day" approach. Choosing a sire based on popularity rather than what is best for the mare is a scenario that guarantees failure.

The updated database now available includes the currently registered yearlings. There are a fair number of them unnamed which is, to me, unacceptable considering that the breeders have had over a year to pick a name.

The current crop of yearlings is probably one of the most interesting in recent years. On the pacing side we have Art Official, Artistic Fella, Artzina, Classic Card Shark, Driven To Win, Hot Rod Mindale, If I Can Dream, Major In Art, Mister Big, Palone Ranger, Quality Western, Shadow Play, Total Truth and Well Said, among others. The first crop trotting stallions include Explosive Matter, Federal Flex, Groton Hall, Lear Jetta, Muscle Hill, Swan For All, The Pres, and Windsong Espoir.

Over the next few weeks I will look at all of their offspring and offer some thoughts on which ones to look for in the 2012 yearling sales.

 

 

Updates

An update to the database is now available. It contains additions and updates for performance for European and Australia/New Zealand. Almost 300,000 horses have been added and the database is now approaching 1.8 million horses. The next update will feature the North American yearlings of 2012 , foals of 2011, and will be available in mid July.

Updating foreign horses is a challenge to say the least. I have gathered the data from twelve different websites. The data is freely available, unlike the situation in North America where you have to pay for it. Australia has just changed their policy of charging for access and now makes all reports available for free. They have realized that the data is important for breeders to make correct decisions on breeding and also recognize that the old system was not serving the small breeders that make up the greatest percentage of their membership.

I have long been an advocate of free access to pedigree information. After all the breeders pay dearly to create this information in the first place - why should they be charged for using it?

Every breed registry for Standardbreds has a website where they offer information in various formats. One of the best is the aforesaid Australian site. One of the most artistic is the Italian site ANACT and the French have several sites where you can access their pedigrees as well as complete reference material on active sires. In that respect both USTA and Standardbred Canada are sadly lacking. The stallion information is incomplete and many times outdated. It should be a priority for a breed registry to at least get this right.

The European Union has been debating for years how to combine their data into one resource but so far no results. As far as I know the PedigreeGuru website that we operate is the only internet site where you can view pedigrees for any standardbred horse in the world. Surely the various breed registries with all of their resources could replicate what we are able to do basically on a shoestring.

 

 

So You Want To Buy a Muscle Hill Yearling.

The 2012 crop of yearling trotters will be headed up by first crop sire Muscle Hill. It is never too early to start looking for one of these soon to be sought for individuals. But what do you look for in the pedigrees to help you narrow down the list?

In my blog on January 4th, 2010 on First year sires I noted that Muscle Hill had a full brother, Diesel Don, standing in Sweden that had yearlings on the ground. I also speculated on which ones might be successful based on other similar sires and predicted a profile as follows:

It would appear that the options for Muscle Hill and Federal Flex boil down to the following priorities

1. Noble Victory line dams that have a double to Speedy Crown maternally.

I would classify this as a Scenario #2 match since it returns the principle lines of the dam of Muscles Yankee i.e. Speedy Crown and Noble Victory which brings us back to Muscles Yankee as perhaps being the key to success.

2. Stars Pride line dams with no Speedy Crown line but with a Noble Victory line maternally.

This is a Scenario #1 to the extent that you can find the same individuals, namely American Winner (Super Bowl) and Hickory Pride in mares for Muscle Hill.

I have just completed an update of European performance including the ones by Diesel Don now racing at four year old and there are very few surprises. For the mst part the best ones fall into the second profile group having Stars Pride line dams through Super Bowl but some share elements of both groups. The Noble Victory line does not seem to be a factor. Here are the top five based on earnings. bear in mind that most are racing in Finland where 2 and 3 year old races carry low purses.

Don Factor  50006 Euro  Dam is by a son of Super Bowl and is also inbred to Speedster/Speedy Crown.

Singing Soul 21950 Euro  Stars Pride line dam with no Speedy Crown maternally. Dam is inbred 3x3 to Hickory Smoke, half brother to Hickory Pride, sire of the second dam of Muscle Hill.

Grainfield Danny  16338 Euro Dam by a son of Super Bowl with no Speedy Crown maternally. Dam is also a double to Margaret Parrish

Sahara Flygirl  13628 Euro  Dam by a son of Speedy Somolli and while this makes the filly linebred 5x3 to that sire there is a strong maternal connection to compensate with both Super Bowl and Hickory Pride 4x4 maternally.

Secret Pilot  13253 Euro  Dam by son of Super Bowl,with third dam also through Stars Pride

There are just 78 yearlings by Muscle Hill registered to date and perhaps a few more to come. One colt you should be interested in is Martiniwithmuscle from the Credit Winner mare Cocktail Hour. Owned by my good friend Dr Doug Hutchins he will sell in Harrisburg. Like the best one to date by Diesel Don he has a dam through Super Bowl and is in fact a 3x3 maternal double to American Winner. The dam is also inbred maternally to Speedy Crown, a big plus, is inbred to Margaret Parrish, an even bigger plus, and has a second dam also through Super Bowl. This pedigree covers all of the profile possibilities. Did I mention also that he is a January foal?

 

Attachment: Sahara Flygirl Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Martiniwithmuscle Pedigree.pdf
Attachment: Don Factor Pedigree.pdf

Spring

Normally spring in the standardbred world is a time of hopeful expectations. About now the two year olds are showing the promise that was expected in the yearling sales. This year is sadly different. The uncertainty with two year olds has been compounded big time with the political machinations of governments in Ontario and Pennsylvania who seem intent on destroying the standardbred industry in favour of short term revenue gains.

Somebody out there has not been telling the powers that be the real story.

Perhaps it is the nature of our business where horsemen and women  seldom agree on a universal approach to what is good for the industry. This gives the governments of the day all the ammunition they need to arbitrarily change the rules of the game.

First things first. Unity

Everybody in this business has a personal agenda. Forget about it 

The racing industry, standardbred or thorobred, has to constantly prove it has a positive role in society and the common good. Recognize that there are a lot of people out there that could care less. But the  bottom line is that this business, like any other business, provides employment and pays taxes. It is not a sinfull occupation.

If you are serious about this industry then you must do eveything you can to support it. Whether you are in New Jersey, Ontario or PEI the future of standardbred racing depends on you. Let your feelings be known. Politics is all about numbers.

Pedigree Camp 2012

2012 Pedigree Camp The 2012 Pedigree Camp is scheduled for June 22-24th in Charlottetown, PEI, Canada. For the past six years we have welcomed up to thirty attendees each year from all over North America to the event. We have even had overseas interest with visitors from Denmark and Finland. Some of our regulars have been to every camp to date and make it a regular highlight of their season. This year will feature our usual blend of working sessions and recreational activities with the latter including a welcoming lobster dinner and reception, a night at the Red Shores Casino and racetrack in Charlottetown, a Sunday afternoon tour of the Island’s North Shore beaches and gift shops, and our graduation social at Norman’s home in Charlottetown. Details on the Camp Agenda and the registration form are attached. Spouses and partners are welcome to attend the social activities. Registration deadline is May 15th but attendance is limited to the first thirty so don’t leave it too late.

Attachment: Pedigree Camp 2012 Registration.doc

Progress Report on Globetrotter

I have posted an update to Globetrotter which includes the 2011 performance update and stallion listings. This will probably be the last time you need to replace your database since we are moving towards a web based database that you can access either through PedigreeGuru or through your Globetrotter program and ultimately with your i-phone or i-pad..

We have relocated both the PedigreeGuru and PedigreeMatching sites to a new server - much faster and more secure. Over the next few weeks we will be redesigning the sites to make them more compatible and making cosmetic changes to remove redundant info and links.

The new web presence will be known as PM-Online and will combine the two websites as well as offering pedigree databases for both Standardbred and Thorobred pedigrees using Globetrotter and Globerunner respectively. The Globetrotter database will incorporate standardbreds, cold blood trotters and Tennessee Walking Horses while the Globerunner database will feature Thorobreds and Quarterhorse pedigrees.

We are working on the ultimate pedigree matching tool, what we call the EasyMate button. Type in your mare, select where you want to breed and how much you want to pay and EasyMate will give you a ranked list of stallion options. This will be available as an App for mobile users. The App will also feature instant yearling ratings as a basis for your yearling inspections.

Sounds like fun Eh?